Fourth warmest winter on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on March 08, 2012

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February is gone, and the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 is the history books as the fourth warmest in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The winter average temperature of 36.8°F was just 0.4°F cooler than the warmest winter on record, the winter of 1999 - 2000. If you lived in the Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, it seemed like winter never really arrived this year--27 states in this region had top-ten warmest winters. Across the U.S., only New Mexico (41st coolest) and Alaska (35th coolest) had winter temperatures colder than average. According to NOAA's Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures (top 10% on record) was 49 percent--the 4th highest value since the index began being computed in 1911. Jackson, Kentucky, Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, and Trenton, New Jersey all had their warmest winter on record.


Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. temperature rankings for the winter of 2011 - 2012 (the months of December - January - February.) The 117-year period of record begins in 1895, and each state is given a ranking based on how cold this winter was, relative to the other 116 years. Thus, a ranking of 116 means it was the 2nd warmest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Contiguous U.S. temperatures for winter (the months of December - January - February), from 1895 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest winter on record, behind 2000, 1999, and 1992. Winter temperatures have increased by abot 1.7°F per century (red linear trend line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third least snowy winter on record for the contiguous U.S.
Warm and dry conditions during the winter of 2011 - 2012 led to snow cover extent that was the 3rd lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Snowfall was particularly low across parts of the West, where much of California, Nevada, and Arizona had a snowpack less than half of average. Fortunately, the West had a near-record snowpack the previous winter, so this year's lack on snow will not cause serious water availability problems during the summer. In the Upper Midwest, the lack of a winter snowpack will substantially reduce the chances of spring flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. NOAA issues their annual spring flood outlook on March 15, and it is likely to show a much lower risk of flooding compared to last year, when 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods hit much of the Missouri and Lower Mississippi rivers. However, the remarkably low snow cover this winter over the Upper Midwest will allow soils to dry out much more quickly than usual, leading to increased chances of summer drought. The latest Drought Monitor map shows moderate to severe drought covering nearly all of Minnesota and Northwest Iowa; these regions are at high risk of suffering damaging drought conditions during the summer growing season.


Figure 3. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for the winter of 2011 - 2012. Four Western states had a top-ten driest winters on record, and Kansas had a top-ten wettest winter. Drought-stricken Texas, which entered the winter expecting drier than average conditions, since it was a La Niña year, lucked out, getting an unusually wet winter. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very mild winter for the Midwest
If you live in the Midwest, you saved a bundle this winter on heating and snow removal costs. In Minneapolis, where the low temperature falls below 0°F an average of 30 days each year, the temperature fell below zero on just two days. These days were January 18 and 19, when the low hit -1°F and -11°F, respectively. Since record keeping began in 1891, only one other winter has had so few below-zero days--the winter of 2001 - 2002. Third place is held by the winter of 1930 - 1931, with six below-zero days. Minneapolis has seen half of its usual snowfall this winter--just 22.1" as of March 7, which is 22.1" below the average of 44.2". The least snowy winter for Minneapolis occurred in the winter of 1930 - 1931, when just 14.2" of snow fell on the city.

Chicago has also seen far less snow than usual--just 19.8" as of March 7, 11.8" below their average. In a normal winter, there are 13 days with sub-zero temperatures in Chicago. The coldest it got in Chicago this winter was a relatively balmy 5°F on January 19. This is just one degree cooler than the warmest winter low temperature ever recorded in the city, which is 6°F. Here is a list of the winters in Chicago that have had no sub-zero temperatures, with the coldest temperature of the winter shown in parentheses:

1930-31 (6°F)
1959-60 (6°F)
1905-06 (6°F)
2011-12 (5°F)
1982-83 (3°F)
1938-39 (2°F)
1955-56 (2°F)
1931-32 (1°F)
1881-82 (1°F)
1936-37 (1°F)

NCDC's Dr. Deke Arndt has a two-minute video discussing the reasons for this year's warm winter. The primary factor was the position of the jet stream, which lay much farther north than usual.

I'll be back Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Mild Winter (26mileman)
With mild temps people are out riding their bikes.
Mild Winter
March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska (alaskario)
(c) Rebecca Oprish Photography. If you share this picture anywhere, please be sure to credit the photographer.
March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska
A Little Light... (ceocrocker)
Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!
A Little Light...

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421. washingtonian115
1:42 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
It's suppose to be in it's 70's early through mid week next week.I'm so excited!.But not my alergies!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17484
420. StormTracker2K
1:33 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From WFO Peachtree City:

INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...SO HAVE
THUNDER EVERYWHERE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A
SUMMERTIME EVENT THAN ANYTHING WITH INCREASING CAPES AND LITTLE TO
NO SHEAR.
SAME STORY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN ALOFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SURGE AGAIN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.



Not already, severe weather season hasnt even really started yet!!!


Almost looks like the Bermuda High is already getting into position and it's only March.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
419. StormTracker2K
1:14 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is what 145mm(5.71in) in 24hrs did to the creek beside my place.

Before upstream.


After upstream.


Before downstream.


After downstream.


That's a lot of water!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
418. AussieStorm
1:11 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
This is what 145mm(5.71in) in 24hrs did to the creek beside my place on Thursday 8th March.

Before upstream.


After upstream.


Before downstream.


After downstream.

Click images for larger images.

Thought of the day: We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
417. StormTracker2K
1:09 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 AM CST FRI MAR 9 2012

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS...LOWERING TO IFR DECKS DURING PERIODS OF
RAIN. TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF TIMING CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO
VICINITY RAIN WITH A STAB AT RAMPING UP HEAVIER RAIN (OR EVEN ELEVATED
THUNDER) DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. COMBINING THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION LOCAL WRF MODEL WITH THE LARGER SCALE EUROPEAN BOTH HAVE
A SOLUTION OF PEGGING THE 18-00Z AS THE PERIOD OF MORE STEADY RAINFALL.
THE ATTEMPT TO TIME THE NEXT DECENT CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH
BUT...THE SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE BIG BEND
REGION (PER W/V IMAGERY) IS FLARING UP THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER THEN OUR RADAR
SHOULD BECOME MORE COLORFUL WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS (RAIN MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST). THE LATE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE DRIER AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO EASTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 31

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
416. StormTracker2K
1:06 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
Where's the rain for Houston?

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
415. StormTracker2K
1:04 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
Gonna be a lot of post on here today saying it's like summertime here in FL with temps pushing near 90 with 70 dgree dewpoints and thunderstorms firing on the incoming seabreezes calminating to a big seabreeze collision near Orlando.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
414. StormTracker2K
1:03 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
413. StormTracker2K
1:01 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
Could be strong to severe storms this afternoon across E C FL with very cold temps at 500mb.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2012


TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE THE GFS
IS CORRECT IN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IT HAS BEEN PREDICTING.

SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
DAY. MOS POPS ARE 40-50 PERCENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MAY EVEN BECOME ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE MODEL IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK THOUGH...SO WILL GO ABOUT 10 PERCENT BELOW MOS POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
INTO FLORIDA. SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL BE NEARING THE AREA ABOUT
WHEN THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL BE OCCURRING...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE FORECAST. SINCE IT IS
MARCH AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOL (MINUS 12 TO 13 DEGREES AT 500
MB)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
412. GeorgiaStormz
12:36 PM GMT on March 09, 2012
From WFO Peachtree City:

INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...SO HAVE
THUNDER EVERYWHERE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A
SUMMERTIME EVENT THAN ANYTHING WITH INCREASING CAPES AND LITTLE TO
NO SHEAR.
SAME STORY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN ALOFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SURGE AGAIN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.



Not already, severe weather season hasnt even really started yet!!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
411. trunkmonkey
11:26 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Most of next week is going to be a very warm one for much of the United States. These maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next six days. Note the preponderance of >20-degree positive anomalies, especially in the Upper Midwest:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm

DAY 6
WarmWarm



Hey I'm in charge of the RACES, and work with ARES in my area, I depend on those guys and support them to the fullest!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
410. Neapolitan
11:18 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Most of next week is going to be a very warm one for much of the United States. These maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days. Note the preponderance of >20-degree positive anomalies, especially in the Upper Midwest:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13609
409. RTLSNK
10:27 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Looks like the rain is going to get to Macon early today.
I may have to cancell all that garden work my wife SugarBear had planned for me.
Gee, that's too bad isn't it? Back to bed I guess. :)

Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21559
408. Progster
10:00 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Protect the NWS:
Link

I'm not an NWS employee. I'm not even an American. But they do good work. Link to a White House petition.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
407. aspectre
8:58 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Preparing for the Next Cataclysmic Tsunami: Readings from a network of more than 50 buoys -- including the federal governnment's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis system, or DART -- tracked wave heights after a magnitude-9.0 shift in the ocean floor set off a giant wall of water. The waves rose as much as 6 feet in open ocean.
"Ten years ago, people would say, "Oh, it's not possible to have a tsunami that high,' " Titov said. "That was the event that I was hoping not to see in my life."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
406. ktymisty
7:51 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 03/8/2012 at 11:18PM PST

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the earthquake magnitude, location and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts.

At 11:10 PM Pacific Standard Time on March 8, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.1 occurred near the Vanuatu Islands . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.

This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)



It was too deep for a Tsunami...well that might be the short version
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
405. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:31 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
000
WEHW42 PHEB 090717
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-090917 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
917 PM HST THU MAR 08 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0910 PM HST 08 MAR 2012
COORDINATES - 19.2 SOUTH 169.7 EAST
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.1 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

$$

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:29 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
403. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:27 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 03/8/2012 at 11:18PM PST

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the earthquake magnitude, location and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts.

At 11:10 PM Pacific Standard Time on March 8, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.1 occurred near the Vanuatu Islands . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.

This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
402. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:25 AM GMT on March 09, 2012
000
WEHW42 PHEB 090717
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-090917 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
917 PM HST THU MAR 08 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0910 PM HST 08 MAR 2012
COORDINATES - 19.2 SOUTH 169.7 EAST
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.1 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:23 AM GMT on March 09, 2012


a big one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening all .....LOOKS like another SunSpot explosion is possible


oh yeah, I've got SolarHam open for the next big one. Love the site and support it whenever I can.

Sunspot 1429 is directly placed for an earth bound CME
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
399. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
10:00 AM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (998 hPa) located at 29.2S 38.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 105 NM in the southwestern quadrant, but reaching gale force winds and very rough to high seas within 60 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 29.1S 37.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 28.7S 36.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 35.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection remains quite weak near the center.

The system still drifts slowly globally westwards. It is expected to keep on shifting slowly globally west northwestwards until Saturday morning on the northern edge of a weak mid level ridge. Beyond, high pressures located over South Africa will steer the system north northwestwards.

Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). The wind-shear is still rather low but is expected to strengthen this afternoon and maintain the current weakening trend.

Irina should be a filling up low by the time it will make landfall near Inhambane. Consequently Irina should not be considered any more as a threat for Mozambique

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
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Evening all .....LOOKS like another SunSpot explosion is possible
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HA, LOL Barefoot!
Yes it's a full moon glowing and all it portends, but nahhh, no deep 6 on da 86... you're still actively on da WU member menu...

Happy trails to sandman land, and seeing old Sol hasn't erupted a serious X20 at us yet, doing same.
G'niters!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
396. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:47 PM WST March 9 2012
=========================

A low is developing south southwest of Bali in the vicinity of 13S 112E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone as early as Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during next week. This low is expected to move generally southwards and may be located off the Pilbara coast for much of next week. The risk of a coastal impact increases during the week. Pilbara and Kimberley coastal communities are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts over the coming days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
395. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
10:00 AM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (980 hPa) located at 17.1S 86.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center , extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 260 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 270 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.0S 83.5E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.2S 81.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.6S 78.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.6S 78.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

SSMIS pass of 0203 AM UTC show always an eye pattern in the mid level but not vertically in phase with the low level center (displaced to the northeast of the mid level eye)

The track forecast philosophy has not changed much within the next three days: Koji-Joni is expected to keep on tracking globally west southwestwards on the northern edge of the subtropical mid-level ridge. This feature is expected to gradually weaken tomorrow with a weakness located along 80.0E. On this track, easterly wind shear is expected to keep on existing aloft but is expected to gradually relax Saturday and allow some little strengthening.

Saturday and Sunday, the system is expected to recurve southwards in the weakness and towards a transiting mid-latitude trough. Late Saturday, environmental conditions should be at their best for the system as it should lie along the upper level ridge ... However some northerly shear is likely to maintain a bit by that time. Sea surface temperature and oceanic heat contain are favorable up to around 22.0S.

Sunday and beyond, the system will move over cooler waters and undergo an increase in northerly shear ..so a weakening trend is expected bu that time. By the end of the forecast period, latest ECMWF output show now a continuing southwards track without a clear westwards turn. Given the rather high spread amongst the guidance by that time, the current forecast is close to the mean solution.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A pretty light show or a light show of impending doom? I would really like to know the effects of a X-class solar flare hitting earth dead on. Also what is more powerful a CME or X-class flare (If they are even compairable.) TY in advance.


The effects would be mainly communication and possibly some power disruption. Some satellites might get knocked into safe mode as well.

If your worried about being fried by solar radiation, then you can lay your fears aside. The Earth's magnetic field, even when in a transitory state, is more than enough shield the surface from any solar flares the sun can throw at us. And the sun simply isn't capable of generating CMEs large enough to affect life on the surface. There is also no paleological evidence that any extinction event was triggered by any such flare.

The largest recorded flare was the "Carrington Flare" back in the 1800's, which dwarfs even the most powerful solar flares in recent history. It made one hell of a light show and played havoc with the few electrical systems and telegraphs of the time. But that was about it.

A solar flare is the EM energy released (W/m^2) from an active area of the sun. The CME is the mass released from active areas of the sun, which affects the "solar wind". This is usually comprised of protons an light nuclei and travel at varying speeds depending on how violent the release was. While flares and CME's often occur together, not every flare has a CME and vice versa. But since both usually occur in active areas they often coincide.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
M6 flare just occurred!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
310 Chicklit "...Internet Outages from Solar Flares Could Force People to Interact with Other People, Officials Warn."

Oh, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOES
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
471. DocNDswamp!
#86
And hiya Barefoot!

Oh dear, have I been 86ed again? Must be a full moon or something.
:)
...

And, in case anybody's keeping score, no Northern Lights visible here in "the middle" tonight. Just some left behind clouds and the Moon.

G'nite, wubloggers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good deal, Keep, good luck... and yeah, glancing back at the WV loop sunlinepr posted, see ya been socked in with thick clouds, same as us... low stratus streaming in off Gulf here, but a few breaks, at least can see the moon tonight.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
Thanks a bunch, flsky!

Enjoy your flights, HH27!

Keeper - Ya might have mentioned before, but have ya caught the aurora last couple nights up there yet?
nothing been cloudy last night and this evening clearing now may go too the roof of highrise to have a look see what i can see

if there is anything i will snap a vid of it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:
"Across the U.S., only New Mexico (41st coolest) and Alaska (35th coolest)"
Really?
To what purpose is this questionably quantitative stat being used in Dr Masters post?

By itself it would be slightly interesting.
In context it is just ridiculous.
Its warmer or colder in this place and in that place.

Just as ridiculous is the leading cometary posed,posed as agenda driven fact.
Only used for agenda.

Stated by itself would be informative.
In context it is contrary to rebuttals of weather as opposed to climate.

Seemingly used in this blog at will until it contradicts warmist agenda.

And dont give me the "it" wasnt used to prove anything.
Context and repetition speaks volumes.



Pardon me if I'm mistaken, but I always presupposed that Dr. Masters posts monthly temperature data because it's statistically interesting, not because he's trying to validate anthropogenic global warming.
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Thanks a bunch, flsky!

Enjoy your flights, HH27!

Keeper - Ya might have mentioned before, but have ya caught the aurora last couple nights up there yet?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Richard Engel Talks About Nuclear Disaster By Sarah Gravlee
Story Published: Mar 7, 2012 at 7:06 PM MST

BILLINGS - March 11th, 2012, marks the first anniversary of the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster in the Fukushima Province of Japan.

Richard Engel is covering the story for NBC News and spoke to KULR-8 Wednesday afternoon. He said the area surrounding the now closed nuclear power plant is a ghost town that cannot be inhabited for years to come.

"It's really about the dust. I thought I was going into an area, it'd be like a big microwave oven. You'd leave glowing and there's a constant radiation level. It's not like you're entering a big x-ray machine. It's the dust. It's the particles of, in this case, radioactive cesium that were shot up into the sky and settled in lots of different places," Engel said. "This cesium has a half-life of decades, and it's everywhere, and it's like this part of the earth has been written off. It has been excised from the planet and that was just, and still is, a shocking concept."
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Night everyone. Get to fly with some UH-60's & MH-6's tommorow.
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381. flsky
Quoting DocNDswamp:


As time allows, m'friend!
Waaay short on that commodity than I'd prefer... ;)

Quite welcomed when time permits....
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Quoting flsky:

Hey. You need to be on here more often!


As time allows, m'friend!
Waaay short on that commodity than I'd prefer... ;)
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Seems the cold front is moving slower than originally thought.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR SO GOOD WITH THE FORECAST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIP IS LOCATED ALONG THE BACK SIDE
OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO OOZE SEWD TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...ENTERING
THE NRN TIER OF ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY PROGRESSING TO
MAYBE A KBPT-KOPL LINE BY 12Z. REGARDLESS INHERITED HIGH POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOK FINE ATTM.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A current closeup of sunspot 1429. At the moment, Earth is looking just about right down the barrel. Should the area shoot off an X-class flare tomorrow--something which NOAA scientists are giving a 40% chance of happening on Friday--we could really be in for a huge light show:

sun
That is a really cool picture. I have decided to draw it.
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375. flsky
Quoting DocNDswamp:
backtracking...
re: #83
pottery, if you see this - I was writing a reply that was turning into a book I could never finish, lol, and had to leave... Anyway, thanks for your response, and I certainly can't disagree... As for the jet stream's remarkable swings, for one example, I find studying SFSU's Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream Archive for the past 4 DJF Winters fascinating to compare... Only most recent years available, but nice interactive ability, i.e., setting the loop, changing the years for same 7, 14, or 30 day period...

#84
PS: Pat - Enjoyed da coffee and donuts earlier!
Appreciate the updated solar storm info you, Keep, Nea and others are posting. Now where's "my" aurora? I was hoping for a repeat of 1989, coincidentally also in March... I did note one similarity last couple nights while desperately seeking a glimpse of "something" in between the clouds / full moon - da mosquitoes were eating me alive at nightfall, just like they did back in '89!!!
Some things never change... ;)

#86
And hiya Barefoot!

#159
ROTFL, excellent question, aspectre!

Okay, back to the present, carry on...

Hey. You need to be on here more often!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Ah yes so we destroyed teh death star?
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373. flsky
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Um, what?
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<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
backtracking...
re: #83
pottery, if you see this - I was writing a reply that was turning into a book I could never finish, lol, and had to leave... Anyway, thanks for your response, and I certainly can't disagree... As for the jet stream's remarkable swings, for one example, I find studying SFSU's Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream Archive for the past 4 DJF Winters fascinating to compare... Only most recent years available, but nice interactive ability, i.e., setting the loop, changing the years for same 7, 14, or 30 day period...

#84
PS: Pat - Enjoyed da coffee and donuts earlier!
Appreciate the updated solar storm info you, Keep, Nea and others are posting. Now where's "my" aurora? I was hoping for a repeat of 1989, coincidentally also in March... I did note one similarity last couple nights while desperately seeking a glimpse of "something" in between the clouds / full moon - da mosquitoes were eating me alive at nightfall, just like they did back in '89!!!
Some things never change... ;)

#86
And hiya Barefoot!

#159
ROTFL, excellent question, aspectre!

Okay, back to the present, carry on...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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