Tropical Cyclone Irina kills 72 on Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2012

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Heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone Irina have killed 72 people on Madagascar and left 70,000 homeless, according to news reports. Irina never reached hurricane strength, but dumped heavy rains on the island over an extended period, February 29 - March 2. The area affected was remote, so the reports of the disaster only today reached the outside world. Irina is the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2012 thus far, and the second deadly storm to affect the island in recent weeks; Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island two weeks ago as a Category 3 storm, killing 35 and leaving 240,000 homeless. Irina is expected to dissipate over cold waters southwest of Madagascar over the next day.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Irina over Madagascar at 07:15 UTC March 1, 2012. At the time, Irina was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
New HPC 5 Day QPF:

8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow?
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wow.
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Quoting nymore:
Yea do you have a link for your hype? For Brownsville TX to see them would require a KP index of 9 or the maximum on the chart. My best guess if we get smacked pretty hard would be Oklahoma or a line from northern South Carolina to northern California
KP index for this event is supposed to be level 6




According to the University of Fairbanks, this is generally where a KP index of 6 will show up





Unfortunately, the usual SPWC Aurora forecast is not working

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting JNCali:
8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow?


Well, technically its 6-8" over about 1/2 of the state, with a small maxima of 8.4in.

Most of the flow on the Mississippi comes from the Ohio River (on average). During last year's flood event, we were able to get a couple hundred thousand cfsdown the Arkansas, but that was still small compared to the combined 2million cfs of both the Ohio and the upper Mississippi. It could create a bit of bump, but it would be pretty tough to cause flooding on the lower Miss. from rainfall in that area.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Edit: Oops, hold on.

1845 5 W J P COLEMAN STATE P TISHOMINGO MS 3493 8825 TORNADO REPORTED BY A STATE TROOPER ON THE GROUND MS HWY 25 NORTH NEAR THE TENN/TOMM WATERWAY. (MEG)

0305 UNK 5 E OCEAN SPRINGS JACKSON MS 3041 8872 DAMAGE TO 2 COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS IN FOUNTAINBLEAU. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN. (LIX)

2115 BRAXTON SIMPSON MS 3202 8997 NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF-1 TORNADO OCCURRED IN NORTHERN SIMPSON COUNTY. DETAILS TO FOLLOW. (JAN)

2142 1 NNW UTICA HINDS MS 3212 9063 EF-1 RATED TORNADO WITH 95 MPH WINDS ... 3.5 MILE PATH LENGTH FROM 1.5 NNW UTICA TO 4 NE UTICA AND 0.25 MILE PATH WIDTH ... NUMEROUS PINE TREES SNAPPED/UPROOTED AND A NUMBE (JAN)

2238 BRAXTON SIMPSON MS 3202 8997 UPDATE ... NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF1 TORNADO WENT THROUGH THE CITY OF BRAXTON. SIMPSON COUNTY SHERRIFF OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH SO (JAN)

2250 RUTH LINCOLN MS 3138 9032 UPDATE ... NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINES AN EF-1 TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE NEAR RUTH. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS AND SOME TREES DOWN ON MOBILE HOMES (JAN)

0043 12 SSE POPLARVILLE PEARL RIVER MS 3068 8946 MULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED A FEW SOFT WOODS AND ONE HARD WOOD. TWO HARDWOODS UPROOTED. 40 PERCENT OF METAL ROOF OFF HOUSE WITH A FEW ROOF BEAMS BROKEN OFF. BEAMS AND METAL (LIX)
0049 AVERA GREENE MS 3130 8874 AT 830PM CDT ... THE COUNTY EMA RECIEVED INFORMATION FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OF TORNADO DAMAGE INCLUDING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. SEVERAL CAR ACCIDENTS MAY ALSO BE R (MOB)

0145 5 E OCEAN SPRINGS JACKSON MS 3040 8872 ROOFING PEELED OFF OF A COUPLE METAL COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS IN FOUNTAINBLEAU AREA.WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF TWO HOUSE. LARGE SECTION OF TWO FENCES BLOWN DOWN. SEVERAL MEDIUM TR (LIX)
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Corrected version of the below has been moved to 239 due to program-flaws in Modify Comment.

195 Grothar "Try this"
Let a = 1 , Let b = 1
a%uFFFD-b%uFFFD = ab-b%uFFFD
(a-b)(a b) = b(a-b)
2 = 1

For those who don't know the trick, the flaw is that you canNOT divide by zero under any circumstances.
(a-b) = 0
(a-b) divided by (a-b) = zero divided by zero
zero divided by zero is undefined
And nope, 1 divided by 0 is NOT equal to infinity. It is undefined.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Look how close one of those tornadoes came to my town!

Edit: Oops, hold on.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


While that certainly seems to be true for most, for reasons already mentioned, I personally feel that homeschooling is the best avenue academically because it tends to provide a one on one student/teacher environment where the kid can learn at their own pace. Whereas in public school, that's not an option.

I don't know if I'm the exception to the rule or what, but I've never had a problem with being social, and I was homeschooled and had minimal social exposure save a brief two-year period of baseball when I was 6-7. I guess it really depends on the kid though, as my brother is notoriously shy coming from the same background.

Point being, you can be social if you are homeschooled, but the chances are probably less likely. Doesn't mean you can't ultimately outgrow it though.
as long as they don't go postal should be fine
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"...all latitudes..."
The Equator?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, you don't need a link...

=)
Quoting nymore:
Yea do you have a link for your hype? For Brownsville TX to see them would require a KP index of 9 or the maximum on the chart. My best guess if we get smacked pretty hard would be Oklahoma to perhaps northern Georgia and northern California

"...all latitudes..."

Brownsville was probably a bit much, but still, you get the point, lol.

P.S. The link is in the comma and periods of the above quote :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody from International Falls, MN to Brownsville, TX should watch for auroras tonight...

"Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras."
Yea do you have a link for your hype? For Brownsville TX to see them would require a KP index of 9 or the maximum on the chart. My best guess if we get smacked pretty hard would be Oklahoma or a line from northern South Carolina to northern California
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It'd be nice if we could have a day like this again, without all those tornado reports.




Look how close one of those tornadoes came to my town!
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Quoting SPLbeater:
And my mom dont really do much schooling with me, she does that wit my brother who has textbooks and stuff. my cirriculum is on computer. das why i am here throughout the day. work school 10 minutes/Wunderground 5 minutes/work school 10 minutes/Wunderground 5 minutes :D
That is not something to be proud of, your education is only going to suffer.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
It'd be nice if we could have a day like this again, without all those tornado reports.


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Quoting yqt1001:


He's homeschooled, he's already hurt socially.


While that certainly seems to be true for most, for reasons already mentioned, I personally feel that homeschooling is the best avenue academically because it tends to provide a one on one student/teacher environment where the kid can learn at their own pace. Whereas in public school, that's not an option.

I don't know if I'm the exception to the rule or what, but I've never had a problem with being social, and I was homeschooled and had minimal social exposure save a brief two-year period of baseball when I was 6-7. I guess it really depends on the kid though, as my brother is notoriously shy coming from the same background.

Point being, you can be social if you are homeschooled, but the chances are probably less likely. Doesn't mean you can't ultimately outgrow it though.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting nymore:
look at posts numbers 111 and 117, I posted some info that will help you out.

Thank you, those were very informative!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7734
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

High School is NOT easy, at least not mine. :P
In the long run it will be though. It's not like college or working full time will be any easier lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, yeah!! Try this:

Let a = 1
Let b = 1

a²-b² = ab-b²

(a-b) (a+b) = b(a-b)

2 = 1
tricky ol grothar

don't cancel out those (a-b)s and you wont have any problems
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow?
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Quoting Grothar:


Link, please!

No, you don't need a link...

=)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody from International Falls, MN to Brownsville, TX should watch for auroras tonight...

"Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras."


Link, please!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Everybody from International Falls, MN to Brownsville, TX should watch for auroras tonight...

"Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras."
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Quoting Patrap:
Current Solar Activity and Heliospheric Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Conditions



That last burst seems ominous.
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Quoting TomTaylor:

It really just depends what classes you take. I would certainly encourage people to challenge themselves in high school if they desire to get into a top level school or are pursuing a more challenging major. The problem I have is that parents, counselors, and teachers all try to tell students that they must take the toughest courses and get the highest test scores or they will not go anywhere for college and end up in some dead end job. I hear this same stuff over and over, and it is really a load of crap.

If you maintain passing grades, take decent classes, and do your extracurricular activities you will get into most colleges and can certainly go on to lead a successful career. Too much pressure is put on high school students, people need to realize that what you do in high school will not determine where you end up in life. Your high school years are some of the best and easiest of your life, enjoy them.

High School is NOT easy, at least not mine. :P
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Quoting yqt1001:


Don't be excited. :P High school (and up) work sucks! Just be happy you don't actually have to go to high school, there is a lot of change from middle school to high school.

It really just depends what classes you take. I would certainly encourage people to challenge themselves in high school if they desire to get into a top level school or are pursuing a more challenging major. The problem I have is that parents, counselors, and teachers all try to tell students that they must take the toughest courses and get the highest test scores or they will not go anywhere for college and end up in some dead end job. I hear this same stuff over and over, and it is really a load of crap.

If you maintain passing grades, take decent classes, and do your extracurricular activities you will get into most colleges and can certainly go on to lead a successful career. Too much pressure is put on high school students, people need to realize that what you do in high school will not determine where you end up in life. Your high school years are some of the best and easiest years of your life, enjoy them.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Patrap, or anyone else knowledgeable on the subject: What are the chances I can see the Northern Lights in MA the next couple nights? I've had opportunities before, but it's always cloudy... The next few nights will be clear though.
look at posts numbers 111 and 117, I posted some info that will help you out.
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From the solarham.com site


Statistical Auroral Oval




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Updated 3/7/2012 @ 22:25 UTC

Incoming Full-Halo CME

Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way.




Click HERE to watch the latest model run.


Arrival Time Update Please note that the expected arrival time of the plasma cloud will be between 0600-1000 UTC. This means sometime after 2am EST, we can expect the first signs of the incoming Coronal Mass Ejection.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Patrap, or anyone else knowledgeable on the subject: What are the chances I can see the Northern Lights in MA the next couple nights? I've had opportunities before, but it's always cloudy... The next few nights will be clear though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7734
The Region stays active and another CME or Solar Flare is expected and will be Earth directed

22:55
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Pat why does the sun vid get grainy?


keeper is correct as that is the ionized Energy from the event that strikes the sensors on board the spacecraft.


file
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yep! That is the answer I go too. But, I had to do it twice.


It had Einstein stumped for years, too! It is a simple no-no in mathematics when you finally see the logic of what is wrong with the equation.
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Click image for loop.
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flare start
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
I like this one the best:



Hey! It is completely logical. LOL Pattern recognition!


Actually, the first one is wrong anyway.

The right hand limit is positive and the left hand is negative, so they diverge.

Therefore the limit does not exist.

Infinity != DNE
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think that normally it is unusual. Or, is it unusually normal? Or, it is .... never mind.


You are very unusual.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, yeah!! Try this:

Let a = 1
Let b = 1

a²-b² = ab-b²

(a-b) (a+b) = b(a-b)

2 = 1


Yep! That is the answer I go too. But, I had to do it twice.
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16S
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
I like this one the best:



Hey! It is completely logical. LOL Pattern recognition!


Oh, yeah!! Try this:

Let a = 1
Let b = 1

a²-b² = ab-b²

(a-b) (a+b) = b(a-b)

2 = 1
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53519
Quoting Grothar:


Your country has been having a spat of very unusual weather the past few years. Is this normal???

La Nina normally does this.

Southern NSW Feb 14, 2012


March 5, 2012
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HGX still sounds skeptical...

UPPER DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS TROF ARE FCST BY MODELS TO
TRIGGER RAIN AND ELEVATED TSTMS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF ITSELF SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS AND
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT PERIODS OF PRECIP THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH TRAINING A POSSIBILITY. ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
SUITE ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THRU MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN 1/3-1/2 OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...TWO SIGNIFICANT THINGS I SEE MISSING ARE A LLVL
FOCUS/BOUNDARY AND SLOW STORM MOTION. NOT TO DISCOUNT THAT A
MESOSCALE/MICROSCALE SITUATION MIGHT END UP OCCURRING THAT WOULD
PRODUCE THESE...BUT AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW I JUST DON`T THE SEE
CONTINUOUS AND NEVER ENDING PRECIP FROM FRI-MONDAY MORNING
GFS/ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING. THINK THE CANADIAN LOOKS MOST REALISTIC.
SEEN SIMILAR FCST PATTERNS BOTH VERIFY AND BUST ACROSS SE TX.
LITTLE CHANGES IN TIMING, POSITIONING, MESOSCALE FACTORS AND RIDGE
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE OUTCOME. FOR
NOW WOULD JUST EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIP THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND WILL HOPEFULLY
NAIL THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Pat why does the sun vid get grainy?
i am not pat but it would be safe to say its from the energy being blasted towards the observing image device
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like a blob...


it aint just a blob. if u look at animations u will see that :D
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Pat why does the sun vid get grainy?
Protons and energized particles from the CME are hitting the instrument. Notice they increase after the event.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53519
Quoting Grothar:


Your country has been having a spat of very unusual weather the past few years. Is this normal???


I think that normally it is unusual. Or, is it unusually normal? Or, it is .... never mind.
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Pat why does the sun vid get grainy?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.