Tropical Cyclone Irina kills 72 on Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2012

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Heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone Irina have killed 72 people on Madagascar and left 70,000 homeless, according to news reports. Irina never reached hurricane strength, but dumped heavy rains on the island over an extended period, February 29 - March 2. The area affected was remote, so the reports of the disaster only today reached the outside world. Irina is the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2012 thus far, and the second deadly storm to affect the island in recent weeks; Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island two weeks ago as a Category 3 storm, killing 35 and leaving 240,000 homeless. Irina is expected to dissipate over cold waters southwest of Madagascar over the next day.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Irina over Madagascar at 07:15 UTC March 1, 2012. At the time, Irina was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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286. Some1Has2BtheRookie
1:30 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


All things being equal.


Yeah, that is what we were working on. Few people knew that this was actually the last theory he was working on. ... A "Unified Theory of Everything" would be a piece of cake, once a "Unified Theory of Variables" is found. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
285. Grothar
1:30 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

Really? I think it would were I doing something I like. ala, weather forecasting.


Well, you are good at it. We always enjoy reading your blogs.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
284. Grothar
1:26 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
283. Patrap
1:26 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Any flights over 6 hrs and I usually take the Kahlua Nap on...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
282. MontanaZephyr
1:25 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Thanks for all the alerts and updates about the oncoming solar storm!

At 46 N Latitude, and a nice dark back yard at 5240 feet, with absolutely clear skies forecast, in rural Montana, this looks to be awesome.... too bad it is slated for the very INSTANT that the Full Moon Culminates.

Gah!
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
281. Patrap
1:25 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Anyone else have a power/cable brownout last 30 minutes?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
280. Grothar
1:25 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
We have been getting a lot of heavy downpours in Broward County. We need it. We haven't had a drop of rain in months on the coast.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
279. hurricanehunter27
1:23 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Sounds terrible. Gee, I would never want to do anything like that. (you want to take this one, Rookie????)
Done something similar. Went from Nairobi to Amsterdam to Paris to Atlanta in one straight run. Cant exactly tell you how much time was spent on that trip home. It was a blurr.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
278. Patrap
1:22 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Mets age almost as fast as 27 yr old Rock Stars.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
277. KoritheMan
1:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012

Quoting Grothar:


If it's any consolation, it doesn't get better any place else.
Really? I think it would were I doing something I like. ala, weather forecasting.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
276. Grothar
1:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Invariably!


All things being equal.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
275. Grothar
1:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.


Sounds terrible. Gee, I would never want to do anything like that. (you want to take this one, Rookie????)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
274. KoritheMan
1:18 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.


You better believe I'd be pissed. Wow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
273. Grothar
1:16 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah but in the military you expect to be their *****. Walmart's policy states the complete opposite.


Not really. The recruiter told me I could wear a nice uniform with shiny buttons and shoes; travel the world and see new people and exotic places all at their expense. We would get free meals and medical care.

What he didn't say is, that WE had to shine our buttons and shoes 4 times a day and the new people and exciting places we went to, the people wanted to shoot us. Just joking with you, Kori.

If it's any consolation, it doesn't get better any place else.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
272. hurricanehunter27
1:15 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah but in the military you expect to be their *****. Walmart's policy states the complete opposite.
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
271. Some1Has2BtheRookie
1:09 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Relatively speaking, of course.


Invariably!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
270. KoritheMan
1:09 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Kori, you know I think the world of you. Just a little word of advice. Don't ever join the military. :)


Yeah but in the military you expect to be their *****. Walmart's policy states the complete opposite.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
269. hurricanehunter27
1:08 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Kori, you know I think the world of you. Just a little word of advice. Don't ever join the military. :)
This made me laugh more than it should.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
268. hurricanehunter27
1:07 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


It was relatively minor compared to previous skirmishes, but sure. It was after 8:00 PM, I was working juice, so he told me to bring the whole pallet out to the floor because there'd be few customers for that to intrude on so late in the evening. Fair enough. The one thing he overlooked though, was that I only had a few boxes of freight left on the pallet at that point, so I bring them out on a cart instead. He starts with his usual attitude and "I'm better than you" tone, and says "You didn't bring out the pallet like I told you to." I said "Can't bring a pallet out with nothing on it."

Sometimes it isn't so much what they say (though it usually is), but how they say it.
Ok I see. Well good luck.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
267. Grothar
1:06 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Meteorology actually, o_O.

But yeah, Walmart sucks. Had another manager complain to me yesterday, but I fought back this time. They want you to become their personal *****, and I'm not going to.

I'm leaving that cesspool as soon as I can. Count on it.


Kori, you know I think the world of you. Just a little word of advice. Don't ever join the military. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
266. Grothar
1:03 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA:
Grothar


Pedley
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
265. Grothar
1:02 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Logic dictates that an equation would not have two variables with the same value. Einstein and I worked on a theory of every variable having the same value. "The Unified Theory of Variables". ;-)


Relatively speaking, of course.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
264. KoritheMan
1:01 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you mind explaining exactly what happened?


It was relatively minor compared to previous skirmishes, but sure. It was after 8:00 PM, I was working juice, so he told me to bring the whole pallet out to the floor because there'd be few customers for that to intrude on so late in the evening. Fair enough. The one thing he overlooked though, was that I only had a few boxes of freight left on the pallet at that point, so I bring them out on a cart instead. He starts with his usual attitude and "I'm better than you" tone, and says "You didn't bring out the pallet like I told you to." I said "Can't bring a pallet out with nothing on it."

Sometimes it isn't so much what they say (though it usually is), but how they say it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
263. Grothar
1:00 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting kipperedherring:
Good to hear from you Grothar! Welcome back!


Thanks, nice to be back.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
262. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:58 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE KOJI, CATEGORY ONE (15U)
9:00 AM WST March 8 2012
=============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Koji, Category One (995 hPa) located at 15.6S 92.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.3S 89.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.7S 87.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.0S 83.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.9S 81.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=====================

Locating the system center by enhanced infrared imagery is difficult and there have been very few useful microwave passes overnight so the fix location is uncertain. The ASCAT pass at 1500 PM UTC indicated gales had wrapped a little over halfway around the system center. CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 12 knots of northeasterly shear over the system.

Dvorak DT analysis can only be done with a shear pattern which yields a DT of 3.5 which is inconsistent with the MET of 2.5 and the AMSU/ADT/SATCON estimates. Final Dvorak is based on MET and final intensity is set at 35 knots. The system is named based on the evidence from ASCAT that the gales are wrapping more than half way around the center.

The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Koji will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
261. MAweatherboy1
12:56 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
I just finished a blog on current activity in the tropics and other weather news for anyone interested...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
260. hurricanehunter27
12:50 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Meteorology actually, o_O.

But yeah, Walmart sucks. Had another manager complain to me yesterday, but I fought back this time. They want you to become their personal *****, and I'm not going to.

I'm leaving that cesspool as soon as I can. Count on it.
Do you mind explaining exactly what happened?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
259. Some1Has2BtheRookie
12:48 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA:
Grothar


I thought that went without saying?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
258. PedleyCA
12:46 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Grothar
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6253
257. PedleyCA
12:45 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Good to see you back. Was getting a bit dull around here.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6253
256. hurricanehunter27
12:45 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Solar time is UTC.




Updated 3/7/2012 @ 22:25 UTC


www.solarham.com


Incoming Full-Halo CME
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.



Arrival Time Update Please note that the expected arrival time of the plasma cloud will be between 0600-1000 UTC. This means sometime after 2am EST, we can expect the first signs of the incoming Coronal Mass Ejection.<
Ummmm...ahhhh...doom?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
255. KoritheMan
12:44 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting kipperedherring:
Koritheman! I was deely saddened to hear of the turmoil in your retail career. I have heard from another blogger that you are planning on resuming your career in cosmetology. Is this true?


Meteorology actually, o_O.

But yeah, Walmart sucks. Had another manager complain to me yesterday, but I fought back this time. They want you to become their personal *****, and I'm not going to.

I'm leaving that cesspool as soon as I can. Count on it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
253. Xyrus2000
12:34 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Quoting muddertracker:


I can't argue with any of that. It makes sense, and I fully support a parent's right to choose what is best for their children. I just get riled up when all teachers get lumped together as one "entity" that does nothing but teach to the test. (Although, I admit, that does happen in some places.)


I agree to a point (and I do homeschool my son). A parent should have the right to homeschool their children as long as they demonstrate that their children are being sufficiently educated.

While I agree that broad-stroking teachers with the same brush isn't accurate, the fact remains that our education system isn't doing such a good job. We've consistently placed below other developed nations in general education for years now. That being said, it isn't just the education system's fault. Social and economic factors have also acted as a drag on overall education levels as well.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1656
251. Patrap
12:27 AM GMT on March 08, 2012
Any Wunderground radar will have the UTC time as well as Local


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting wxgeek723:


High school the best years of your life!? I will gladly debate that.
key word is some of the best years of your life. I didn't say they were the best years. Most people would probably say college in that case.

I guess it depends who you are though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Solar time is UTC.




Updated 3/7/2012 @ 22:25 UTC


www.solarham.com


Incoming Full-Halo CME
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.



Arrival Time Update Please note that the expected arrival time of the plasma cloud will be between 0600-1000 UTC. This means sometime after 2am EST, we can expect the first signs of the incoming Coronal Mass Ejection.<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
A handy Aurora forecast link

University of Alaska Aurora Forecast page

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Quoting Grothar:


It had Einstein stumped for years, too! It is a simple no-no in mathematics when you finally see the logic of what is wrong with the equation.


Logic dictates that an equation would not have two variables with the same value. Einstein and I worked on a theory of every variable having the same value. "The Unified Theory of Variables". ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting nymore:
Your KP index (bar)chart shows what is happening now the CME people are talking about has not reached us yet. I expect it to hit at least a KP7 with a small chance at KP8 briefly. But this is just my best guess.
It's supposed to reach us on March 8th at 0625 GMT (+/- 7hrs) so technically it could have hit us already as it is currently March 8 0019 GMT.

Anyway, I doubt it will reach KP 8. I'd say KP6 to possibly 7. We shall see.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Actually, the first one is wrong anyway.

The right hand limit is positive and the left hand is negative, so they diverge.

Therefore the limit does not exist.

Infinity != DNE


Infinity is nothing but an 8 that fell over on to its side. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Grothar:


You are very unusual.



LOL! .... What was the first clue?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting hydrus:
wow.



BRING IT ON!!!
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Sydney Doppler Winds

Click image for loop.
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Quoting TomTaylor:

It really just depends what classes you take. I would certainly encourage people to challenge themselves in high school if they desire to get into a top level school or are pursuing a more challenging major. The problem I have is that parents, counselors, and teachers all try to tell students that they must take the toughest courses and get the highest test scores or they will not go anywhere for college and end up in some dead end job. I hear this same stuff over and over, and it is really a load of crap.

If you maintain passing grades, take decent classes, and do your extracurricular activities you will get into most colleges and can certainly go on to lead a successful career. Too much pressure is put on high school students, people need to realize that what you do in high school will not determine where you end up in life. Your high school years are some of the best and easiest years of your life, enjoy them.


High school the best years of your life!? I will gladly debate that.
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195 Grothar "Try this"
Let a = 1 , Let b = 1
a²-b² = ab-b²
(a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b)
2 = 1

For those who don't know the trick, the flaw is that you canNOT divide by zero under any circumstances.
(a-b) = 0
(a-b) divided by (a-b) = zero divided by zero
zero divided by zero is undefined
And nope, 1 divided by 0 is NOT equal to infinity. It is undefined.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
KP index for this event is supposed to be level 6




According to the University of Fairbanks, this is generally where a KP index of 6 will show up





Unfortunately, the usual SPWC Aurora forecast is not working

Your KP index (bar)chart shows what is happening now the CME people are talking about has not reached us yet. I expect it to hit at least a KP7 with a small chance at KP8 briefly. But this is just my best guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
195 Grothar " Let a = 1 , Let b = 1
a²-b² = ab-b²
(a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b)
2 = 1 "

For those who don't know the trick, the flaw is that you canNOT divide by zero under any circumstances.
(a-b) = 0
(a-b) divided by (a-b) = zero divided by zero = undefined
And nope, 1 divided by 0 is NOT equal to infinity


I knew that! Just look at post 202. I gave a hint. Now you gave away my big trick for the day. I hope you're happy! LOL (P.S. Were you homeschooled?) :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting 1900hurricane:
New HPC 5 Day QPF:

8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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