The March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: one EF-4, 39 deaths

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on March 05, 2012

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A blanket of snow 2 - 4 inches deep fell yesterday on the regions of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky pounded by deadly tornadoes on Friday, adding to the misery of survivors. The violent tornado rampage killed 39 and injured hundreds more, wreaking property damage that will likely exceed $1 billion. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 21 and 12 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one each in Alabama and Georgia. The scale of the outbreak was enormous, with a preliminary total of 139 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to Northern Florida. The National Weather Service issued 297 tornado warnings and 388 severe thunderstorm warnings. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak, and an area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings. Tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Video 1. Spectacular video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. You can see small satellite vorticies rotating on the side of the main vortex.


Video 2. Another video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012, taken from a gas station.

The deadliest and most violent tornado: an EF-4
The deadliest and most violent tornado of the March 2, 2012 outbreak was an EF-4 with winds up to 175 mph that demolished much of Henryville, Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, Indiana. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a weaker EF-1 tornado hit the town. The twin tornadoes killed twelve people. The Henryville tornado was the only violent EF-4 tornado of the outbreak.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the two tornadoes that hit Henryville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. The first (rightmost) hook echo on the reflectivity image belonged to the only violent tornado of the outbreak, an EF-4 with winds of 166 - 200 mph. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a second tornado hit the town. These tornadoes also caused severe damage to the towns of Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, and killed twelve people.

At least eleven other tornadoes in the outbreak have been classified as EF-3s with winds of 136 - 165 mph. Capitalclimate.com reports that the EF-3 tornadoes that crossed three Eastern Kentucky counties were the first tornadoes that strong ever observed, since tornado records began in 1950. The deadliest of the EF-3 tornadoes hit West Liberty, Kentucky, killing eight. Here's a summary of the deadly tornadoes of the outbreak taken from Wikipedia:

EF-4, 12 deaths, Henrysville, Indiana
EF-3, 8 deaths, West Liberty, Kentucky\
EF-2, 5 deaths, East Bernstadt, Kentucky
EF-3, 4 deaths, Crittenden, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Holton, Indiana
EF-3, 3 deaths, Peach Grove, Ohio
EF-3, 2 deaths, Blaine, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Salyersville, Kentucky
EF-2, 1 death, Jackson's Gap, Alabama


Figure 2. Damage in West Liberty, Kentucky after the March 2, 2012 EF-3 tornado. Image taken from from a Kentucky National Guard Blackhawk helicopter, while landing in West Liberty, KY (Morgan County).


Figure 3. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky EF-3 tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado carved a 60-mile-long path through Eastern Kentucky, causing extreme damage in West Liberty. The tornado killed six in West Liberty and two near Frenchburg. At least 75 people were injured. It was the first EF-3 tornado in Eastern Kentucky since 1988.


Video 3. A woman prays for deliverance of West Liberty as the ominous wall cloud of the developing tornado approaches the town.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. NWS damage surveys have not yet determined if one of the tornadoes from the outbreak has beaten the record for the fastest moving tornado, the 73 mph forward speed of the great 1925 Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time.


Video 4. A family gets in their car in an attempt to flee the Borden, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Unless you know what you're doing, fleeing a tornado in a car can be extremely dangerous, especially when the tornadoes are moving at speeds of 50 - 70 mph, as many were doing during the March 2, 2012 outbreak. Most tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes and cars.

Largest 5-day and 2nd largest 2-day tornado outbreak for so early in the year?
The March 2 tornado outbreak spawned 128 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports as of 8 am EST March 7 from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. An additional 11 tornadoes (preliminary) touched down on March 3, in Florida and Georgia; 3 additional tornadoes touched down on March 1 (Wikipedia does a great job tallying the stats for this tornado outbreak.) These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but a few delayed reports will likely come in, bringing the total number of tornadoes from the March 2 - 3 outbreak to 115 - 125, propelling it into second place for the largest two-day tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five two-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year, since record keeping began in 1950:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
March 2 - 3, 2012: 139 tornadoes (preliminary), 39 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the five-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 is likely to eclipse the late January 18 - 22, 1999 five-day tornado outbreak (131 tornadoes) as the most prolific five-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 4. A key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of warm, moist air near the surface, which helps make the atmosphere unstable. On the day of the March 2, 2012 outbreak, record warm air surged northwards into the tornado formation region, setting or tying daily high temperature records at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Ingredients for the tornado outbreak
This year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s. (Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average). Friday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there. This exceptionally warm air set record high temperatures at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia the afternoon of the tornado outbreak (March 2.) Cold, dry air from Canada moved over the outbreak region at high altitudes. This created a highly unstable atmosphere--warm, low-density air rising in thunderstorm updrafts was able to accelerate rapidly upwards to the top of the lower atmosphere, since the surrounding air was cooler and denser at high altitudes. These vigorous updrafts needed some twisting motion to get them spinning and create tornadoes. Very strong twisting forces were present Friday over the tornado outbreak area, thanks to upper-level jet stream winds that blew in excess of 115 mph. These winds changed speed and direction sharply with height,imparting a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. High instability and a high wind shear are the two key ingredients for tornado formation.


Figure 5. The other key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of very strong winds aloft that change speed and direction sharply with height. This change of wind imparts a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. Here, we see the upper-level wind speeds at the peak of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. The jet stream can be seen as the U-shaped belt of strong winds. Jet stream winds in excess of 100 mph (deep blue colors) were present over the tornado outbreak area in this analysis of data from the NOAA North American Model (NAM) from 7 pm EST March 2, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Another bad year for tornadoes in the U.S.--what's going on?
Last year's tornado season was incredibly severe, and we are off to one of the worst early-season starts to tornado season on record now in 2012. However, it is too soon to ring the alarm bells on climate change being responsible for this. The tornado data base going back to 1950 doesn't show an increasing trend in strong tornadoes in recent decades. While climate change could potentially lead to an increase in tornadoes, by increasing instability, it could also decrease them, by decreasing wind shear. I'd need to see a lot more bad tornado years before blaming climate change for the severe tornado seasons of the past two years. One thing that climate change may be doing, though, is shifting the season earlier in the year. The 5-day total of tornadoes from February 28 - March 3 will probably break the record of 131 set in 1999 for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. Warmer winters, and an earlier arrival of spring due to a warming climate, will allow tornado season to start earlier--and end earlier. This year's early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate. I have a more extensive article on this subject that has just been published by Weatherwise magazine, and a 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? Dr. Jonathan Martin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is doing interesting research on the type of situation we saw with some of the recent severe tornado outbreaks, when two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet and the subtropical jet, merge to form a "superjet." In a December 2011 interview with sciencedaily.com, he said: "There is reason to believe that in a warmer climate, this kind of overlapping of the jet streams that can lead to high-impact weather may be more frequent."

I don't see any storm systems coming over the next 10 days that could cause a major tornado outbreak, though March weather is too volatile to forecast reliably that far in advance. There is a storm system expected to develop on Thursday in the Plains we will have to watch, but so far, indications are that it will not be capable of generating a major tornado outbreak.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity reports that volunteers from colleges and churches made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois on Sunday. Team Rubicon and Portlight will push east to Indiana, where volunteer work is still restricted because of gas leaks and continuing SAR (search and rescue) operations.

I'll edit this post with new stats on the tornado outbreak as they become available, and have an entirely new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Tornado (JimAtTn)
This picture of a small tornado was taken on Friday March 02, 2012 in southern Lincoln County, Tennessee about 7 miles south of Fayetteville. Photographer: Angela Currey-Echols
Tornado
3/2/12 Tornado (charles7013)
A tornado in Dodsen Brach TN.
3/2/12 Tornado
High Risk (LightningFastMedia)
Rotating wall cloud and a possible funnel yesterday, north of Evansville, IN.
High Risk
tornado damage 3/2/12 (clerese3)
3/2/12 tornado damage to a business I pass on my way to and from work. This was a beautiful brick building.
tornado damage 3/2/12
Tornado Damage - TN (GeorgiaPeach)
I uploaded this photo once already and it was rejected for having the wrong date. I explained before, but I will explain again. The tornado came through March 2nd but I had just gotten out of the hospital, so I didn't get out to take pictures of the damage until today. This is five miles from my house in Hamilton County, TN.
Tornado Damage - TN

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The gfs has been consistenly showing a large warm cold clash at 6-8 days. Since this is a very large scale feature, we may be able to put a small amount of credibility into this solution.
question is squall line, or supercells, or combination, or nothing.


Happy super tuesday.


Looking like an active end to the week and thru next week as days and days of severe wx are starting to seem likely now with one of those days being one hell of an outbreak and that does appear to be about 6 days out.
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The gfs has been consistenly showing a large warm cold clash at 6-8 days. Since this is a very large scale feature, we may be able to put a small amount of credibility into this solution.
question is squall line, or supercells, or combination, or nothing.


Happy super tuesday.
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Link
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Link
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Looks like this was the last gasp of cool air until late next fall:(

Orlando!
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GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT S THAN THE EUROPEAN.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS.
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AND BEYOND
WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AND HAVE TRIED TO TAKE SOME
SORT OF COMPROMISE. GFS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMNING
EVENT SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST GA...AND THE EUROPEAN IS DRYING OUT THE NE
1/2-2/3RDS OF THE CWA. GFS MOVES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER WEST FOR THE EUROPEAN. THE EUROPEAN IS
WETTER ON MONDAY THAN THE GFS AND THIS REVERSES ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.



I should call Peachtree city and correct their spelling. They used to know how ..... <_<
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If anyone is interested Hawaii has been soaked lately.

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mornin' all.. got a lovely day ahead here in mid-TN.. high of 66 and breezy 10-20mph.. a whole bunch of the trees are covered in white blooms now.. hope thursday's forecasted t-storms don't blow them all off. havea great Tuesday!
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
ugh...

LinkStormPredictionCenter
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Good morning. It's windy in Puerto Rico as high pressure gets stronger.Some scattered showers are moving fast with the strong trades. Temperatures range from the low 70's to the mid 80's.
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Morning, Everybody!
It's windy as heck here in ECFL.

412 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL INFLUENCE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BY MID MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON INLAND LAKES AND WATERWAYS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND BECOME EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY MID MORNING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND OVER THE GULF STREAM AND 6 TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE A FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONTROL PROBLEMS WITH ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON WILL BRING AN INCREASINGTHREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH SURF CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLETO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH...AND NEVER ENTER THE SURF ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OVER A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS...ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MOSES
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The SPC has a slight risk (15%) of severe weather for Day 3 across a small part of the southern plains:

Uh-oh

For now, hail is the worst weather expected.

Meanwhile, the SPC has update numbers for the year. February's 57 preliminary tornadoes resulted in 53 actual ones, while March's 120 tornadoes to-date are still obviously preliminary. Of note, there have so far been 17 individual "killer tornadoes"--that is, twisters which caused at least one fatality.


I like your post on Tornado's interesting and informative!
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Quoting Patrap:
teamrubiconusa.org

Mission
Team Rubicon unites the skills and experiences of military veterans with medical professionals to rapidly deploy emergency response teams into crisis situations.

Vision
A new paradigm in disaster response that recognizes and harnesses the skills of military veterans; offering them a chance to continue their service by helping and empowering those afflicted by disasters, and also themselves.


I like the work of this oganization, keep it up, America depends on volunteers in time of disasters!
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Morning Nea, and anybody else who's up and about.

Just 72 here this morning, though the wind makes it feel a bit chillier. It got all the way down to 68 last night, which was cool enough for me to turn my A/C off. I sure hope the cold air hangs around for another day or two... this is prolly the last "gasp" of winter.
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The SPC has a slight risk (15%) of severe weather for Day 3 across a small part of the southern plains:

Uh-oh

For now, hail is the worst weather expected.

Meanwhile, the SPC has update numbers for the year. February's 57 preliminary tornadoes resulted in 53 actual ones, while March's 120 tornadoes to-date are still obviously preliminary. Of note, there have so far been 17 individual "killer tornadoes"--that is, twisters which caused at least one fatality.
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dam shame about that horrible tornadoe outbreak and its not even spring time yet gulp, eastern newfoundland is under a blizzard warning for tomorrow 60-70 mile per hour wind gust with heavy snow not fun to drive in.
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453. OCF
I grew up in Oklahoma. I can remember a lot of tornado watches and a handful of times when they blew the sirens in town. But somehow, in all of that, the closest a confirmed tornado ever came to where I was living at the time happened in Southern California. In January, but that is when it would be most likely to happen. Probably 1994 or 1995 - not completely sure of the year. The damage track was a half mile from my house. Sheet metal from a garden shed flung up into trees and wires. A fast food sign with its panels ripped out. A hole punched into the flat roof of a supermarket. (They stayed open for business while they fixed the roof. An elementary school library roof ripped up. All that probably makes it an EF0, maybe if you push it an EF1.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Going to have to try and find a wallpaper sized photo of this. Thats amazing.


In general only a portion of rounds are tracers. One source I found said that roughly one in four rounds in WWII were tracer rounds. Could be that they were shooting a higher ratio when this picture was taken or could be that what we're seeing is only part of the show.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Going to have to try and find a wallpaper sized photo of this. Thats amazing.


the denver post has larger versions i think. i was just looking at the entire set yesterday....
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Once they set the polygon in AWIPS, WarnGen does a lot of the work. It grabs towns and locations from a database, clips the warning to only areas in the CWA, and writes up the text based on the type of stuff you tell it to put in the warning. Then the warning met QCs the text and adds/subtracts anything they want to change before sending.
interesting, thanks for sharing
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
teamrubiconusa.org

Mission
Team Rubicon unites the skills and experiences of military veterans with medical professionals to rapidly deploy emergency response teams into crisis situations.

Vision
A new paradigm in disaster response that recognizes and harnesses the skills of military veterans; offering them a chance to continue their service by helping and empowering those afflicted by disasters, and also themselves.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 5, 2012

This is a movie compilation of various solar flares around Sunspot 1429 on March 5, 2012. There is a 24 hour EVE movie + video of an X1.1, M2.1, M1.8, pair of M1.3's and M1.2.


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447. LRC
Here are before/after pictures of what 5 months of trench warfare can do to a landscape:


One very giant graveyard. Most bodies never found.
Link
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Every 188 days the quakes have come.

That's like , so 11 baktun ago.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I like the Target dog.
I like the other "spot" myself...

Quoting hydrus:
Of course its that simple. Seems that he would have been around a lot more to squeeze that many comments in the space of a year and a half. Like Kori for instance, he has been a Member Since March 7, 2007, he has 245 posts and 11180 Comments, and is a regular. ..Just strange...Maybe age is not just a number .:)
It might also help to post in more than one or two blogs. I think the counter includes all your posts on the WUnderground.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You keeping an eye on Bezymianny? Would love to see it blow its top on the webcam. If I could experience anything without paying the consequences it would be a large eruption, a very strong earthquake, a cat 5 hurricane, and an EF5.
First, you would need to be in the right place, at the right time. 11 March 2011

If you can read Latin, here's a published map that would have given you three days notice, as well as a good hint of where safety would be. Someone's luck is about to run out ... the bottom.

Unlock the the words, and you literally get the bang!

I should start a tour business.


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Quoting SPLbeater:
Here is the radar just after the storm went past Charlotte. hooky!


Well I found something that in hindsight could be considered rotation, but it's not something that would jump out at me as warning material. It was just as the storm was nearing Harrisburg, east of Charlotte.

One problem I see right away is that the nearest WSR-88D is in Greer, SC, so the 0.5deg beam height is ~7000ft over metro Charlotte. Based on the VCP that WFO GSP was using at the time, the range folding from the outer edge of the first-trip echo is right over Charlotte. Probably will need to see data from the TDWR next. What source did your screenshot come from?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What? No it's not. It's MOG.
Anagram. GOM=OMG.
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getting ready to flare off another one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Jedkins01:



Here in Florida, a couple summers back we had a late night severe thunderstorm around 1:30 that produced a confirmed wind gust to 62 mph here by airport near my house, it produced violent wind damage throughout the county including building damage, down trees and several thousand without power, and then went on to spawn a tornado in Manatee County which destroyed some rural homes( I don't remember what it was rated in the end but it was confirmed a tornado buy damage surveys).

The crazy thing about all this was NO warnings were issued at all. I remember having the local 24 news channel Bay News 9 on and when they were tracking the storm approaching the coast near Clearwater Beach, they were for sure a warning was going to be issued, and they were confused when no warnings at all were issued. That was by far one of the strongest thunderstorm cells Ive seen, not even so much because of the strong winds but it was the most incredible lightning and down pour events Ive seen around here. And that is saying something because we get a very large number of torrential rain and frequent lightning events...

The atmosphere wasn't even favorable for tornadoes or damaging wind,s its just the cell was so darn powerful that it produced severe weather anyway. Either way, I never did see an explanation from the NWS for that event, but here the cell was severe for a long time and produced damage over a wide area. That being said, someone on the night crew was sleeping. Ive seen some questionable events where warnings should have been issued but weren't like the powerful storms here Saturday night, but never have I seen something blown as bad as that late summer night a couple years back...


we actually did get a severe thunderstorm warning here in volusia. i was wondering though why the only active warning was here considering how strong the storms were in other parts of the state, especially pinellas
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You keeping an eye on Bezymianny? Would love to see it blow its top on the webcam. If I could experience anything without paying the consequences it would be a large eruption, a very strong earthquake, a cat 5 hurricane, and an EF5.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
438. Skyepony (Mod)
Mozambican emergency officials say heavy rains and high winds killed eight people in the southern African nation over the weekend. Manuel Machaieie of the Disasters Management Institute told Radio Mozambique Monday three people were killed Sunday when a tree fell on their homes in southern Mozambique's Xai Xai district. Mozambican state media say scores of homes and schools were destroyed. State radio says five fishermen were killed off the central port city of Beira Saturday. Authorities on Monday were still cautioning fishermen not to venture out. Local media report the severe weather caused by Irina, a cyclone later downgraded to tropical storm, killed four people in neighboring South Africa. Last month, two cyclones destroyed homes, crops and water and sanitation facilities across Mozambique.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
"War%uFEFF does not determine who is right... only who is left"
You keeping an eye on Bezymianny? Would love to see it blow its top on the webcam. If I could experience anything without paying the consequences it would be a large eruption, a very strong earthquake, a cat 5 hurricane, and an EF5.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
"War does not determine who is right... only who is left"
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Not much, at least certainly not by modern standards.

Even in WW2, a few shells with proximity detonators could have done that entire scene from a few dozen feet above ground.

some Russian guy demonostrates a 50 caliber machine gun w/ explosive rounds

3 rounds was sufficient to cut what looks like about a 15 to 18 inch diameter tree in half.


So probably 1 50 caliber gun, with a full load of ammo, could make the carnage in that scene
Yah but look how the ground has been turned to pretty much mud. No underbrush at all. I think a little more than large caliber rounds from a MG could do that.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Jeez cant image the ammount of ammuntion that was used to do that to an area.


Not much, at least certainly not by modern standards.

Even in WW2, a few shells with proximity detonators could have done that entire scene from a few dozen feet above ground.

some Russian guy demonostrates a 50 caliber machine gun w/ explosive rounds

3 rounds was sufficient to cut what looks like about a 15 to 18 inch diameter tree in half.


So probably 1 50 caliber gun, with a full load of ammo, could make the carnage in that scene
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Quoting Patrap:



Japanese night raiders are met on 16 April with a spectacular network of antiaircraft fire by Marine defenders based at Yontan airfield. In the foreground, silhouetted against the interlaced pattern of tracer bullets, are Corsairs of VMF-311. Department of Defense Photo (USMC) 118775

THE FINAL CAMPAIGN: Marines in the Victory on Okinawa
by Colonel Joseph H. Alexander, USMC (Ret)
Going to have to try and find a wallpaper sized photo of this. Thats amazing.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Once they set the polygon in AWIPS, WarnGen does a lot of the work. It grabs towns and locations from a database, clips the warning to only areas in the CWA, and writes up the text based on the type of stuff you tell it to put in the warning. Then the warning met QCs the text and adds/subtracts anything they want to change before sending.
Thank you.
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War is a freaky thing, I got guns and lots of ammo, hopefully none of which EVER have to be used on anyone...
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ok well, Scott hope u find the past 3 posts of mine concerning the Charlotte tornado helpful, cuz i gots to go to bed.

I reckon i say Thanks to you for asking for data, gave me something to do for the last half hour. :D

night all!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Here is the radar just after the storm went past Charlotte. hooky!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Question. Does the NWS have a mostly filled out templete for warnings? Or do they have to completly type out the warnings with the format there given? Or is there a computer program? Always wondered this.


Once they set the polygon in AWIPS, WarnGen does a lot of the work. It grabs towns and locations from a database, clips the warning to only areas in the CWA, and writes up the text based on the type of stuff you tell it to put in the warning. Then the warning met QCs the text and adds/subtracts anything they want to change before sending.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3327
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Jeez cant imageine the ammount of ammuntion that was used to do that to an area.



Japanese night raiders are met on 16 April with a spectacular network of antiaircraft fire by Marine defenders based at Yontan airfield. In the foreground, silhouetted against the interlaced pattern of tracer bullets, are Corsairs of VMF-311. Department of Defense Photo (USMC) 118775

THE FINAL CAMPAIGN: Marines in the Victory on Okinawa
by Colonel Joseph H. Alexander, USMC (Ret)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Question. Does the NWS have a mostly filled out template for warnings? Or do they have to completly type out the warnings with the format there given? Or is there a computer program? Always wondered this.


Computer program generates most of it, they edit it for small changes if needed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 536 PM HST MON MAR 5 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 536 PM HST MON MAR 5 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting Patrap:
Weather did not bare the tree's in this area post Fighting, Sugar Loaf Hill,Battle Okinawa June 1945.

Jeez cant image the ammount of ammuntion that was used to do that to an area.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
Quoting ScottLincoln:


By the time it is reported, about the only reason they wouldn't issue a warning is if they don't believe the report, or believe the report was a fluke and the storm wont produce anymore, so they just missed it and it's over. Sounds like your anecdote is one where they probably could have done better.

I'm grabbing that data for the Charlotte area while I'm still in a GR2Analyst mood. Just got done looking at Harveyville, KS. That storm was just about unwarnable. Tornado formed right on the edge of town and then was gone the next scan. Dual-pol just showed possible debris after the tornado lifted. Statistically-speaking that is a very unusual situation.
Question. Does the NWS have a mostly filled out template for warnings? Or do they have to completly type out the warnings with the format there given? Or is there a computer program? Always wondered this.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
Weather did not bare the tree's in this area post Fighting, Sugar Loaf Hill,Battle Okinawa June 1945.



Military losses



U.S. losses were over 62,000 casualties of whom over 12,500 were killed or missing. This made the battle the bloodiest that U.S. forces experienced in the Pacific war.

Several thousand servicemen who died indirectly (from wounds and other causes) at a later date are not included in the total. One of the most famous U.S. casualties was the war correspondent Ernie Pyle, who was killed by Japanese machine gun fire on Ie Shima
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting KoritheMan:


Short attention span?
You could say that. :D
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
lol I know that but I'm not really looking over the full conversation. Bad habit I have.


Short attention span?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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