The March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: one EF-4, 39 deaths

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on March 05, 2012

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A blanket of snow 2 - 4 inches deep fell yesterday on the regions of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky pounded by deadly tornadoes on Friday, adding to the misery of survivors. The violent tornado rampage killed 39 and injured hundreds more, wreaking property damage that will likely exceed $1 billion. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 21 and 12 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one each in Alabama and Georgia. The scale of the outbreak was enormous, with a preliminary total of 139 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to Northern Florida. The National Weather Service issued 297 tornado warnings and 388 severe thunderstorm warnings. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak, and an area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings. Tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Video 1. Spectacular video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. You can see small satellite vorticies rotating on the side of the main vortex.


Video 2. Another video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012, taken from a gas station.

The deadliest and most violent tornado: an EF-4
The deadliest and most violent tornado of the March 2, 2012 outbreak was an EF-4 with winds up to 175 mph that demolished much of Henryville, Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, Indiana. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a weaker EF-1 tornado hit the town. The twin tornadoes killed twelve people. The Henryville tornado was the only violent EF-4 tornado of the outbreak.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the two tornadoes that hit Henryville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. The first (rightmost) hook echo on the reflectivity image belonged to the only violent tornado of the outbreak, an EF-4 with winds of 166 - 200 mph. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a second tornado hit the town. These tornadoes also caused severe damage to the towns of Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, and killed twelve people.

At least eleven other tornadoes in the outbreak have been classified as EF-3s with winds of 136 - 165 mph. Capitalclimate.com reports that the EF-3 tornadoes that crossed three Eastern Kentucky counties were the first tornadoes that strong ever observed, since tornado records began in 1950. The deadliest of the EF-3 tornadoes hit West Liberty, Kentucky, killing eight. Here's a summary of the deadly tornadoes of the outbreak taken from Wikipedia:

EF-4, 12 deaths, Henrysville, Indiana
EF-3, 8 deaths, West Liberty, Kentucky\
EF-2, 5 deaths, East Bernstadt, Kentucky
EF-3, 4 deaths, Crittenden, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Holton, Indiana
EF-3, 3 deaths, Peach Grove, Ohio
EF-3, 2 deaths, Blaine, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Salyersville, Kentucky
EF-2, 1 death, Jackson's Gap, Alabama


Figure 2. Damage in West Liberty, Kentucky after the March 2, 2012 EF-3 tornado. Image taken from from a Kentucky National Guard Blackhawk helicopter, while landing in West Liberty, KY (Morgan County).


Figure 3. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky EF-3 tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado carved a 60-mile-long path through Eastern Kentucky, causing extreme damage in West Liberty. The tornado killed six in West Liberty and two near Frenchburg. At least 75 people were injured. It was the first EF-3 tornado in Eastern Kentucky since 1988.


Video 3. A woman prays for deliverance of West Liberty as the ominous wall cloud of the developing tornado approaches the town.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. NWS damage surveys have not yet determined if one of the tornadoes from the outbreak has beaten the record for the fastest moving tornado, the 73 mph forward speed of the great 1925 Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time.


Video 4. A family gets in their car in an attempt to flee the Borden, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Unless you know what you're doing, fleeing a tornado in a car can be extremely dangerous, especially when the tornadoes are moving at speeds of 50 - 70 mph, as many were doing during the March 2, 2012 outbreak. Most tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes and cars.

Largest 5-day and 2nd largest 2-day tornado outbreak for so early in the year?
The March 2 tornado outbreak spawned 128 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports as of 8 am EST March 7 from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. An additional 11 tornadoes (preliminary) touched down on March 3, in Florida and Georgia; 3 additional tornadoes touched down on March 1 (Wikipedia does a great job tallying the stats for this tornado outbreak.) These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but a few delayed reports will likely come in, bringing the total number of tornadoes from the March 2 - 3 outbreak to 115 - 125, propelling it into second place for the largest two-day tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five two-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year, since record keeping began in 1950:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
March 2 - 3, 2012: 139 tornadoes (preliminary), 39 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the five-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 is likely to eclipse the late January 18 - 22, 1999 five-day tornado outbreak (131 tornadoes) as the most prolific five-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 4. A key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of warm, moist air near the surface, which helps make the atmosphere unstable. On the day of the March 2, 2012 outbreak, record warm air surged northwards into the tornado formation region, setting or tying daily high temperature records at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Ingredients for the tornado outbreak
This year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s. (Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average). Friday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there. This exceptionally warm air set record high temperatures at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia the afternoon of the tornado outbreak (March 2.) Cold, dry air from Canada moved over the outbreak region at high altitudes. This created a highly unstable atmosphere--warm, low-density air rising in thunderstorm updrafts was able to accelerate rapidly upwards to the top of the lower atmosphere, since the surrounding air was cooler and denser at high altitudes. These vigorous updrafts needed some twisting motion to get them spinning and create tornadoes. Very strong twisting forces were present Friday over the tornado outbreak area, thanks to upper-level jet stream winds that blew in excess of 115 mph. These winds changed speed and direction sharply with height,imparting a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. High instability and a high wind shear are the two key ingredients for tornado formation.


Figure 5. The other key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of very strong winds aloft that change speed and direction sharply with height. This change of wind imparts a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. Here, we see the upper-level wind speeds at the peak of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. The jet stream can be seen as the U-shaped belt of strong winds. Jet stream winds in excess of 100 mph (deep blue colors) were present over the tornado outbreak area in this analysis of data from the NOAA North American Model (NAM) from 7 pm EST March 2, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Another bad year for tornadoes in the U.S.--what's going on?
Last year's tornado season was incredibly severe, and we are off to one of the worst early-season starts to tornado season on record now in 2012. However, it is too soon to ring the alarm bells on climate change being responsible for this. The tornado data base going back to 1950 doesn't show an increasing trend in strong tornadoes in recent decades. While climate change could potentially lead to an increase in tornadoes, by increasing instability, it could also decrease them, by decreasing wind shear. I'd need to see a lot more bad tornado years before blaming climate change for the severe tornado seasons of the past two years. One thing that climate change may be doing, though, is shifting the season earlier in the year. The 5-day total of tornadoes from February 28 - March 3 will probably break the record of 131 set in 1999 for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. Warmer winters, and an earlier arrival of spring due to a warming climate, will allow tornado season to start earlier--and end earlier. This year's early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate. I have a more extensive article on this subject that has just been published by Weatherwise magazine, and a 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? Dr. Jonathan Martin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is doing interesting research on the type of situation we saw with some of the recent severe tornado outbreaks, when two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet and the subtropical jet, merge to form a "superjet." In a December 2011 interview with sciencedaily.com, he said: "There is reason to believe that in a warmer climate, this kind of overlapping of the jet streams that can lead to high-impact weather may be more frequent."

I don't see any storm systems coming over the next 10 days that could cause a major tornado outbreak, though March weather is too volatile to forecast reliably that far in advance. There is a storm system expected to develop on Thursday in the Plains we will have to watch, but so far, indications are that it will not be capable of generating a major tornado outbreak.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity reports that volunteers from colleges and churches made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois on Sunday. Team Rubicon and Portlight will push east to Indiana, where volunteer work is still restricted because of gas leaks and continuing SAR (search and rescue) operations.

I'll edit this post with new stats on the tornado outbreak as they become available, and have an entirely new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Tornado (JimAtTn)
This picture of a small tornado was taken on Friday March 02, 2012 in southern Lincoln County, Tennessee about 7 miles south of Fayetteville. Photographer: Angela Currey-Echols
Tornado
3/2/12 Tornado (charles7013)
A tornado in Dodsen Brach TN.
3/2/12 Tornado
High Risk (LightningFastMedia)
Rotating wall cloud and a possible funnel yesterday, north of Evansville, IN.
High Risk
tornado damage 3/2/12 (clerese3)
3/2/12 tornado damage to a business I pass on my way to and from work. This was a beautiful brick building.
tornado damage 3/2/12
Tornado Damage - TN (GeorgiaPeach)
I uploaded this photo once already and it was rejected for having the wrong date. I explained before, but I will explain again. The tornado came through March 2nd but I had just gotten out of the hospital, so I didn't get out to take pictures of the damage until today. This is five miles from my house in Hamilton County, TN.
Tornado Damage - TN

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, it's just a freaking chicken nugget.



I'm still in a rage of confusion trying to figure out why anyone would do that, my gosh, did they inject amoebas into their brain?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54473
Seems I'm the "Anti-post" in this thread.. ugh!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, the "Virgin Mary" grilled cheese sandwich sold for $28,000 Link. So a chicken nugget going for $8100 isn't really all that surprising. :P



Things like that drive me absolutely nuts, it makes my head want to explode.... Are we sure human beings are capable of making decisions THAT bad?



Why, why, why, why, why, why, why WHHHHYYYYY! UGHHHHH!!!!.............
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Is it possible anyone could feel that? It's only a 3.0, though it is shallow...


Awaiting the posting of Shake maps,..they should be n soon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting pcbhere:
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?
So long as she can be, and is, kept safe, I think it could be a very good experience for her. Not only would she see what nature is capable of, she could also participate in a community-building project, and benefit from the one-of-a-kind feeling of helping others in a time of need. So far as it being a traumatic experience, I wouldn't think so; it's not as if she'll run across injured people or animals. (Too, it also depends on her maturity level, but she must be okay in that regard or you wouldn't be thinking of taking her anyway, right?)
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Re #649... that is an amazing story.... and that lady has a chance to walk again, albeit using prostheses. Reading this makes me think about the family that was killed in the other town, with the little girl that was blown away and survived for a while.
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Quoting Patrap:
Magnitude 3.0 - PUERTO RICO REGION
2012 March 07 00:08:51 UTC





Magnitude
3.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, March 07, 2012 at 00:08:51 UTC
Tuesday, March 06, 2012 at 08:08:51 PM at epicenter
Location
18.995°N, 66.869°W
Depth
15.1 km (9.4 miles)
Region
PUERTO RICO REGION
Distances
57 km (35 miles) N (355°) from Hatillo, PR
57 km (35 miles) N (358°) from Camuy, PR
57 km (36 miles) NNE (16°) from Isabela, PR
96 km (60 miles) NW (306°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles); depth +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 10, Nph= 10, Dmin=63.7 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Gp=259°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=0
Source
Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico
Event ID
pr12067000

Is it possible anyone could feel that? It's only a 3.0, though it is shallow...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Quoting pcbhere:
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?


I have never experienced anything to the magnitude of an EF4/EF5 so it is hard to say. However, after seeing the pictures and etc. I would think that would be to traumatic. That was a devastating situation and if she is not interested in something like that then I would not let her go. I have chased a few tornadoes (EF2/EF3) and have seen the damage they can cause. I have also been through a few hurricanes and they both can cause significant damage and death.

I cannot speak for you, nor will I attempt to, but in my opinion; if they are not coherent as to what is going on, then personally I would not put them through that.

I must say, you are a great person for helping out in a situation like that. It is so good to see people that are in a close distance to a disaster help in a time of need.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Magnitude 3.0 - PUERTO RICO REGION
2012 March 07 00:08:51 UTC





Magnitude
3.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, March 07, 2012 at 00:08:51 UTC
Tuesday, March 06, 2012 at 08:08:51 PM at epicenter
Location
18.995°N, 66.869°W
Depth
15.1 km (9.4 miles)
Region
PUERTO RICO REGION
Distances
57 km (35 miles) N (355°) from Hatillo, PR
57 km (35 miles) N (358°) from Camuy, PR
57 km (36 miles) NNE (16°) from Isabela, PR
96 km (60 miles) NW (306°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles); depth +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 10, Nph= 10, Dmin=63.7 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Gp=259°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=0
Source
Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico
Event ID
pr12067000
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting RTSplayer:
Now THIS is an off the scale forecast. It goes to black, and erases part of the map.



well

Link
It mirrors the thinking of the Climate Prediction Center, which shows a 90% forecast value above normal over the upper Great lakes, in sharp contrast to that 80% forecast value below normal for western Alaska.

Uh-oh

Winter never had a chance here in the contiguous US...
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Quoting redwagon:

Thank you, Sir.

Right now, BUY COW. We ran/sold/culled clean out of them last year, and if POPS continue , forage and hay will be plenty.
Seriously.
I was eyeballing some ribeyes today. The gang wanted chicken instead. I am hoping the drought stricken areas will get the rain they need without severe flooding issues. Its a wait and see.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting Patrap:


Indiana mother, Stephanie Decker, loses legs saving kids from tornado.
Tuesday March 6, 2012


Parents Joe and Stephanie Decker are shown here with their children Dominic and Reese. When a tornado slammed into their home, Stephanie Decker shielded her children with her own body and lost her legs. (Decker Family/Handout)

AP: INDIANAPOLIS -- An Indiana woman who saved her two children by binding them together with a blanket and shielding them with her body as a tornado ripped apart their house lost parts of both her legs, which were crushed by the falling debris, her husband says.

Stephanie Decker, a 36-year-old sleep specialist, lost one leg above the knee and the other above the ankle, her husband said Monday. She was in serious but stable condition at a Kentucky hospital. The couple's 8-year-old son and 5-year-old daughter survived Friday's storm unscathed.

"I told her, `They're here because of you,"' Joe Decker said by telephone from the University of Louisville Hospital. "I let her know that nothing else matters. I said, `You're going to be here for your kids, and you get to see them grow up."'

Decker, 42, was at Silver Creek High School in Sellersburg, where he teaches algebra, when the tornado hit. With storms expected, the school had been locked down, and he was debating whether to try to race home. Decker exchanged a series of texts with his wife, urging her to get herself and their children into the basement of their sprawling, three-story brick and stone home in Marysville, Ind.

"Then she sent me a text saying the whole house was shaking, and I texted her back and asked her if everything was OK," he said. "I asked her about six or seven times and got no response. That kind of freaked me out."

He said his wife told him later that she was in their walk-out basement, which had French doors leading outside and a wall of windows, when she saw the tornado approaching, moving across the family's 15-acre plot. Stephanie Decker had already tied a blanket around both children and to herself, and she threw herself on top of the children.

"She said she felt the whole house start to go, and then she felt like it moved them about before it kind of wedged her in there, but she was able to keep the kids from moving away," Decker said.

When the tornado passed, Stephanie Decker called to the children. Reese, 5, answered immediately, but Dominic, 8, hesitated before saying he was OK. Decker said his son told him he couldn't hear his mother because of the roar of the storm.
Dominic, however, soon ran across the street to seek help from neighbors, who had taken refuge in a storm cellar, Decker said. One neighbor, realizing the severity of Stephanie's injuries, ran for help and found a deputy sheriff traveling on a four-wheeler about a quarter of a mile away. The deputy applied tourniquets to Stephanie Decker's legs to halt her blood loss.

She has been scheduled to undergo surgery on her legs again Thursday, hospital spokeswoman Holly Hinson said.

"The house is gone. It's pretty amazing that she's alive," Hinson said.
With trees blocking the road after the storm, Decker said he ran part of the way home before two men gave him a ride. He found his house gone and his children with a family friend. His wife had been taken to a hospital 10 miles away, and the men drove him there, allowing him to see Stephanie briefly before she was airlifted to the Louisville hospital.

"I was afraid I might never see her again," Decker said.


What an amazing story. It is so sad that she has lost both of her legs, but her children will live on and likely be inspirational people (I know I would). It just goes to show that mother nature is a force that man kind cannot even control. My thoughts and prayers go out to their family and every other family affected by those tornado outbreaks.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
I saw this earlier today and found it very interesting... Does anyone have a possible explanation?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Now THIS is an off the scale forecast. It goes to black, and erases part of the map.



well

Link
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Quoting hydrus:
Cut off lows away from both of the jets are fickle and hard for the models to latch on to. And hard for the Mets sometimes too,,:)

Thank you, Sir.

Right now, BUY COW. We ran/sold/culled clean out of them last year, and if POPS continue +, forage and hay will be plenty.
Seriously.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, the "Virgin Mary" grilled cheese sandwich sold for $28,000 Link. So a chicken nugget going for $8100 isn't really all that surprising. :P

It was a means to raise $ for a charity and if you can afford a $8100 for nonsense you might need the tax break.
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Quoting redwagon:

Indeed, the max was 4.3" yesterday. Why the uncertainty?

A lot rides on this. Like the lake tourism economies of Texas, which was killed dead last year.
Cut off lows away from both of the jets are fickle and hard for the models to latch on to. And hard for the Mets sometimes too,,:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, it's just a freaking chicken nugget.


Well, the "Virgin Mary" grilled cheese sandwich sold for $28,000 Link. So a chicken nugget going for $8100 isn't really all that surprising. :P
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*sigh*

Youtubes new channel design comes in tomorrow...Dont even get an option to stick with the oold design, AKA the BEST design
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486


Indiana mother, Stephanie Decker, loses legs saving kids from tornado.
Tuesday March 6, 2012


Parents Joe and Stephanie Decker are shown here with their children Dominic and Reese. When a tornado slammed into their home, Stephanie Decker shielded her children with her own body and lost her legs. (Decker Family/Handout)

AP: INDIANAPOLIS -- An Indiana woman who saved her two children by binding them together with a blanket and shielding them with her body as a tornado ripped apart their house lost parts of both her legs, which were crushed by the falling debris, her husband says.

Stephanie Decker, a 36-year-old sleep specialist, lost one leg above the knee and the other above the ankle, her husband said Monday. She was in serious but stable condition at a Kentucky hospital. The couple's 8-year-old son and 5-year-old daughter survived Friday's storm unscathed.

"I told her, `They're here because of you,"' Joe Decker said by telephone from the University of Louisville Hospital. "I let her know that nothing else matters. I said, `You're going to be here for your kids, and you get to see them grow up."'

Decker, 42, was at Silver Creek High School in Sellersburg, where he teaches algebra, when the tornado hit. With storms expected, the school had been locked down, and he was debating whether to try to race home. Decker exchanged a series of texts with his wife, urging her to get herself and their children into the basement of their sprawling, three-story brick and stone home in Marysville, Ind.

"Then she sent me a text saying the whole house was shaking, and I texted her back and asked her if everything was OK," he said. "I asked her about six or seven times and got no response. That kind of freaked me out."

He said his wife told him later that she was in their walk-out basement, which had French doors leading outside and a wall of windows, when she saw the tornado approaching, moving across the family's 15-acre plot. Stephanie Decker had already tied a blanket around both children and to herself, and she threw herself on top of the children.

"She said she felt the whole house start to go, and then she felt like it moved them about before it kind of wedged her in there, but she was able to keep the kids from moving away," Decker said.

When the tornado passed, Stephanie Decker called to the children. Reese, 5, answered immediately, but Dominic, 8, hesitated before saying he was OK. Decker said his son told him he couldn't hear his mother because of the roar of the storm.
Dominic, however, soon ran across the street to seek help from neighbors, who had taken refuge in a storm cellar, Decker said. One neighbor, realizing the severity of Stephanie's injuries, ran for help and found a deputy sheriff traveling on a four-wheeler about a quarter of a mile away. The deputy applied tourniquets to Stephanie Decker's legs to halt her blood loss.

She has been scheduled to undergo surgery on her legs again Thursday, hospital spokeswoman Holly Hinson said.

"The house is gone. It's pretty amazing that she's alive," Hinson said.
With trees blocking the road after the storm, Decker said he ran part of the way home before two men gave him a ride. He found his house gone and his children with a family friend. His wife had been taken to a hospital 10 miles away, and the men drove him there, allowing him to see Stephanie briefly before she was airlifted to the Louisville hospital.

"I was afraid I might never see her again," Decker said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13 (#144):
Just goes to show you that when tornadoes get to EF4/EF5 strength, no where above ground is safe...They might need to do a reassessment...
Decker

As it turns out, this home was actually occupied by a woman and her two children at the time the tornado struck. They are all alive, though the mother--Stephanie Decker--lost both her legs while protecting her children. See and read the story here.

(On a side note: the video shows that the house did collapse in on itself and into the basement, which is not visible from in front of the home.)
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Re: 645 I'm no troll. Signed up in 2009 when I moved to Florida and never experienced hurricanes. I am not an avid poster, but read the blog everyday.
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MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A powerful solar flare greater than X5.0 is currently in progress. More information to follow.

The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC. A coronal mass ejection will likely result and due to the sunspots more geoeffective position, there will be a chance for some sort of impact.





Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for images, video and more details should a CME be produced.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting pcbhere:
Hello from Louisville, Ky. I wish I could change my handle. I lived in Panama City Beach when I joined WU, therefore, I used pcbhere.

Anyhow, 1st the tornadoes, then 5 1/2 inches of snow, last night low of 29, today high 70 degrees. All I can say is, huh?


if u want new handle then make new account...the same profile will save you from them bloggers that call all newcomers trolls , lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definitely not saying that this will come true given its time out on the GFS model, but if this were to come to fruition, an Unprecedented outbreak would occur. The first outbreak comes at 288 hours across the Central/Southern plains, and then continues into 312 hours in the Northern/Central plains. Typically, this is very long range, but I've come to trust it more considering that March 2-3 used to be in the long range like this, and also the fact that the GFS was showing the exact same thing yesterday. Something to watch...







your vocabulary has increased a bit...you have either stared at dictionary for awhile er taken interest in your spelling list ;)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Hello from Louisville, Ky. I wish I could change my handle. I lived in Panama City Beach when I joined WU, therefore, I used pcbhere.

Anyhow, 1st the tornadoes, then 5 1/2 inches of snow, last night low of 29, today high 70 degrees. All I can say is, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely not saying that this will come true given its time out on the GFS model, but if this were to come to fruition, an Unprecedented outbreak would occur. The first outbreak comes at 288 hours across the Central/Southern plains, and then continues into 312 hours in the Northern/Central plains. Typically, this is very long range, but I've come to trust it more considering that March 2-3 used to be in the long range like this, and also the fact that the GFS was showing the exact same thing yesterday. Something to watch...





Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Description: Latest CME-based model run
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
www.solarham.com

Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 4, 2012


This video presents an on air recording by amateur radio station Frank DH7FB with his 144mhz EME array pointed towards the Sun. During the recording, Sunspot 1429 produced a long duration M2.0 solar flare and this is what he recorded. At 8 seconds into the on air recording, you can hear a sharp increase in background noise level which continues for a while until eventually returning to quieter levels.

Thanks to DH7FB for providing this recording.




NOAA Solar Report - [SIDC Report]

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
From HGX:



A slow moving upper level low pressure system and a cold front that will likely be slowing as it moves into the region will set the stage for a good shot of rain across the region. The potential for very heavy rainfall may exist on Friday. Confidence in how this system will develop is very low with some computer models indicating the that the front could stall with rains continuing through Sunday and other that the front could eventually move well out into the Gulf on Friday ending the threat of significant rainfall. Stay tuned and as forecast confidence increases the magnitude of rainfall and duration should become more definable.
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Additonally to developing this current S Indian invest, the ECMWF also takes a system into northwest Australia in roughly 10 days. Hmm.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting hydrus:
I hope the CMC is wrong . ( it usually does overdue the precip.. And the HPC keeps increasing POPS with this thing..

Indeed, the max was 4.3" yesterday. Why the uncertainty?

A lot rides on this. Like the lake tourism economies of Texas, which was killed dead last year.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just noticed that there were 144 reports of tornados for the 2nd. Thats quite a bit.


those 2 blue ones in central NC are mean.

they woke me up while i was sleeping comfortably lol
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States currently at least partially under a red flag warning: Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California. That's 19.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
I hope the CMC is wrong . ( it usually does overdue the precip.. And the HPC keeps increasing POPS with this thing..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Just noticed that there were 144 reports of tornados for the 2nd. Thats quite a bit.
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Irina:


Invest:
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Interesting, that would be much more in line with the CMC's "deluge" solution.
I can see already that future forecasts will be at the very least tricky. Especially when there will be a significant flood threat covering a large area.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Sunday/monday was not pop up showers it was a low pressure system moving through.


for your area. keep in mind I am not in VA

Edit: went and viewed archived radar imagery for my area. there were showers in morning assosiated with low pressure sysstem, them afternoon showers popping up to my south and east. Monday, a few showers did develop in the afternoon around me, and to my west.
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Quoting hydrus:
The latest SREF run has the system retro-grading back towards Arizona.Link

Interesting, that would be much more in line with the CMC's "deluge" solution.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"



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The latest SREF run has the system retro-grading back towards Arizona.Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting SPLbeater:
As a note..low level lapse rates have stabilized just below 5 here, while the mid levels are still slowly destabilizing. But I aint anticipating any pop up shower activity like Sunday/Monday...neither is the NWS :D


Sunday/monday was not pop up showers it was a low pressure system moving through.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


And that picture does not really do her justice!

Added:

Link
Here is the latest CMC run. I dont mind sayin it looks unsettling.Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


And that picture does not really do her justice!

Added:

Link
Yep. Thats what I,m talking about Rook..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The pressure here is 1038.6 mbar.


My barometer has decreased by a few millibars lately, back down to, say 1035mb. (1037.6mb would equal 30.68 in barometric pressure, FYI lol)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
As a note..low level lapse rates have stabilized just below 5 here, while the mid levels are still slowly destabilizing. But I aint anticipating any pop up shower activity like Sunday/Monday...neither is the NWS :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting SPLbeater:
Well, my personal weather records(that date back to 2009 lol) have set a new record for highest pressure recorded in my location!

Previous record high since 09: 30.47in/1031.7mb

New record since 09: 30.64in/1037.3mb

thanx to that ridge sitting over the coastal areas of VA/NC

The pressure here is 1037.7 mbar.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.