The March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: one EF-4, 39 deaths

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on March 05, 2012

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A blanket of snow 2 - 4 inches deep fell yesterday on the regions of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky pounded by deadly tornadoes on Friday, adding to the misery of survivors. The violent tornado rampage killed 39 and injured hundreds more, wreaking property damage that will likely exceed $1 billion. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 21 and 12 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one each in Alabama and Georgia. The scale of the outbreak was enormous, with a preliminary total of 139 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to Northern Florida. The National Weather Service issued 297 tornado warnings and 388 severe thunderstorm warnings. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak, and an area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings. Tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Video 1. Spectacular video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. You can see small satellite vorticies rotating on the side of the main vortex.


Video 2. Another video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012, taken from a gas station.

The deadliest and most violent tornado: an EF-4
The deadliest and most violent tornado of the March 2, 2012 outbreak was an EF-4 with winds up to 175 mph that demolished much of Henryville, Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, Indiana. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a weaker EF-1 tornado hit the town. The twin tornadoes killed twelve people. The Henryville tornado was the only violent EF-4 tornado of the outbreak.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the two tornadoes that hit Henryville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. The first (rightmost) hook echo on the reflectivity image belonged to the only violent tornado of the outbreak, an EF-4 with winds of 166 - 200 mph. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a second tornado hit the town. These tornadoes also caused severe damage to the towns of Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, and killed twelve people.

At least eleven other tornadoes in the outbreak have been classified as EF-3s with winds of 136 - 165 mph. Capitalclimate.com reports that the EF-3 tornadoes that crossed three Eastern Kentucky counties were the first tornadoes that strong ever observed, since tornado records began in 1950. The deadliest of the EF-3 tornadoes hit West Liberty, Kentucky, killing eight. Here's a summary of the deadly tornadoes of the outbreak taken from Wikipedia:

EF-4, 12 deaths, Henrysville, Indiana
EF-3, 8 deaths, West Liberty, Kentucky\
EF-2, 5 deaths, East Bernstadt, Kentucky
EF-3, 4 deaths, Crittenden, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Holton, Indiana
EF-3, 3 deaths, Peach Grove, Ohio
EF-3, 2 deaths, Blaine, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Salyersville, Kentucky
EF-2, 1 death, Jackson's Gap, Alabama


Figure 2. Damage in West Liberty, Kentucky after the March 2, 2012 EF-3 tornado. Image taken from from a Kentucky National Guard Blackhawk helicopter, while landing in West Liberty, KY (Morgan County).


Figure 3. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky EF-3 tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado carved a 60-mile-long path through Eastern Kentucky, causing extreme damage in West Liberty. The tornado killed six in West Liberty and two near Frenchburg. At least 75 people were injured. It was the first EF-3 tornado in Eastern Kentucky since 1988.


Video 3. A woman prays for deliverance of West Liberty as the ominous wall cloud of the developing tornado approaches the town.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. NWS damage surveys have not yet determined if one of the tornadoes from the outbreak has beaten the record for the fastest moving tornado, the 73 mph forward speed of the great 1925 Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time.


Video 4. A family gets in their car in an attempt to flee the Borden, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Unless you know what you're doing, fleeing a tornado in a car can be extremely dangerous, especially when the tornadoes are moving at speeds of 50 - 70 mph, as many were doing during the March 2, 2012 outbreak. Most tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes and cars.

Largest 5-day and 2nd largest 2-day tornado outbreak for so early in the year?
The March 2 tornado outbreak spawned 128 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports as of 8 am EST March 7 from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. An additional 11 tornadoes (preliminary) touched down on March 3, in Florida and Georgia; 3 additional tornadoes touched down on March 1 (Wikipedia does a great job tallying the stats for this tornado outbreak.) These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but a few delayed reports will likely come in, bringing the total number of tornadoes from the March 2 - 3 outbreak to 115 - 125, propelling it into second place for the largest two-day tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five two-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year, since record keeping began in 1950:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
March 2 - 3, 2012: 139 tornadoes (preliminary), 39 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the five-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 is likely to eclipse the late January 18 - 22, 1999 five-day tornado outbreak (131 tornadoes) as the most prolific five-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 4. A key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of warm, moist air near the surface, which helps make the atmosphere unstable. On the day of the March 2, 2012 outbreak, record warm air surged northwards into the tornado formation region, setting or tying daily high temperature records at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Ingredients for the tornado outbreak
This year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s. (Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average). Friday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there. This exceptionally warm air set record high temperatures at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia the afternoon of the tornado outbreak (March 2.) Cold, dry air from Canada moved over the outbreak region at high altitudes. This created a highly unstable atmosphere--warm, low-density air rising in thunderstorm updrafts was able to accelerate rapidly upwards to the top of the lower atmosphere, since the surrounding air was cooler and denser at high altitudes. These vigorous updrafts needed some twisting motion to get them spinning and create tornadoes. Very strong twisting forces were present Friday over the tornado outbreak area, thanks to upper-level jet stream winds that blew in excess of 115 mph. These winds changed speed and direction sharply with height,imparting a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. High instability and a high wind shear are the two key ingredients for tornado formation.


Figure 5. The other key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of very strong winds aloft that change speed and direction sharply with height. This change of wind imparts a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. Here, we see the upper-level wind speeds at the peak of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. The jet stream can be seen as the U-shaped belt of strong winds. Jet stream winds in excess of 100 mph (deep blue colors) were present over the tornado outbreak area in this analysis of data from the NOAA North American Model (NAM) from 7 pm EST March 2, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Another bad year for tornadoes in the U.S.--what's going on?
Last year's tornado season was incredibly severe, and we are off to one of the worst early-season starts to tornado season on record now in 2012. However, it is too soon to ring the alarm bells on climate change being responsible for this. The tornado data base going back to 1950 doesn't show an increasing trend in strong tornadoes in recent decades. While climate change could potentially lead to an increase in tornadoes, by increasing instability, it could also decrease them, by decreasing wind shear. I'd need to see a lot more bad tornado years before blaming climate change for the severe tornado seasons of the past two years. One thing that climate change may be doing, though, is shifting the season earlier in the year. The 5-day total of tornadoes from February 28 - March 3 will probably break the record of 131 set in 1999 for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. Warmer winters, and an earlier arrival of spring due to a warming climate, will allow tornado season to start earlier--and end earlier. This year's early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate. I have a more extensive article on this subject that has just been published by Weatherwise magazine, and a 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? Dr. Jonathan Martin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is doing interesting research on the type of situation we saw with some of the recent severe tornado outbreaks, when two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet and the subtropical jet, merge to form a "superjet." In a December 2011 interview with sciencedaily.com, he said: "There is reason to believe that in a warmer climate, this kind of overlapping of the jet streams that can lead to high-impact weather may be more frequent."

I don't see any storm systems coming over the next 10 days that could cause a major tornado outbreak, though March weather is too volatile to forecast reliably that far in advance. There is a storm system expected to develop on Thursday in the Plains we will have to watch, but so far, indications are that it will not be capable of generating a major tornado outbreak.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity reports that volunteers from colleges and churches made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois on Sunday. Team Rubicon and Portlight will push east to Indiana, where volunteer work is still restricted because of gas leaks and continuing SAR (search and rescue) operations.

I'll edit this post with new stats on the tornado outbreak as they become available, and have an entirely new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Tornado (JimAtTn)
This picture of a small tornado was taken on Friday March 02, 2012 in southern Lincoln County, Tennessee about 7 miles south of Fayetteville. Photographer: Angela Currey-Echols
Tornado
3/2/12 Tornado (charles7013)
A tornado in Dodsen Brach TN.
3/2/12 Tornado
High Risk (LightningFastMedia)
Rotating wall cloud and a possible funnel yesterday, north of Evansville, IN.
High Risk
tornado damage 3/2/12 (clerese3)
3/2/12 tornado damage to a business I pass on my way to and from work. This was a beautiful brick building.
tornado damage 3/2/12
Tornado Damage - TN (GeorgiaPeach)
I uploaded this photo once already and it was rejected for having the wrong date. I explained before, but I will explain again. The tornado came through March 2nd but I had just gotten out of the hospital, so I didn't get out to take pictures of the damage until today. This is five miles from my house in Hamilton County, TN.
Tornado Damage - TN

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Quoting MTWX:
From the NWS Louisville regarding a tornado on the 29th...

Russell/Casey County (1 tornado):

Strength: EF-2

Path Length: 8.0 miles
Path Width: 175 yards Maximum

Estimated touchdown/ending time: 225 PM EST - 229 PM EST
Narrative: Tornado touched down north of Russell Springs in northern Russell county near the junction of Highway 127 and Mount Union Rd. The tornado then tracked northeast through northern Russell County and into southern Casey County where it lifted around Windsor. The worst damage was in Russell County for 1-2 miles east of U.S. 127 where outbuildings, barns, and mobile homes were destroyed. Some modular built homes were moved and damaged. Lesser amounts of damage were found in Casey County where the tornado strength decreased to EF-1 intensity. In Casey County, 1 outbuilding was damaged and trees were uprooted and snapped.

Not sure the time frame is correct... If it is, that tornado was traveling across the earth at 120 MPH!!!



where u git the tornado information? i cant find anything like that:/
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting hydrus:
I have been use to the CAPS for a while. I realize sometimes they are annoying, but on the other hand, it helps me catch at a glance something I woulda missed if it was in miniscule type. On top of that I wear glasses, and majuscule print is much easier for me to read. I believe that you are not the only one who would appreciate this type of post upgrade.:)


It's not just the all caps, but it's also a 'full screen' issue. At one point a couple of days ago there were several of these pastes, almost in sequence.

I'm thinking that few people outside of the effected area read the details. If people could quickly see the warned area it might be less disruptive.


--

I find all caps (or no caps) much harder to read than normal capitalization. If sentences and place names are capitalized I can skim quicker.

Perhaps it's time for government agencies to realize that we're no longer using teletypes....
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Quoting presslord:



AAARRRGGGHHH!!! It's my ex-wife!!!!!!!!!
please. do not be a wuss. itsa a beautiful day...:)..pfft
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
117. MTWX
From the NWS Louisville regarding a tornado on the 29th...

Russell/Casey County (1 tornado):

Strength: EF-2

Path Length: 8.0 miles
Path Width: 175 yards Maximum

Estimated touchdown/ending time: 225 PM EST - 229 PM EST
Narrative: Tornado touched down north of Russell Springs in northern Russell county near the junction of Highway 127 and Mount Union Rd. The tornado then tracked northeast through northern Russell County and into southern Casey County where it lifted around Windsor. The worst damage was in Russell County for 1-2 miles east of U.S. 127 where outbuildings, barns, and mobile homes were destroyed. Some modular built homes were moved and damaged. Lesser amounts of damage were found in Casey County where the tornado strength decreased to EF-1 intensity. In Casey County, 1 outbuilding was damaged and trees were uprooted and snapped.

Not sure the time frame is correct... If it is, that tornado was traveling across the earth at 120 MPH!!!

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Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters I enjoy reading you very much. The video today of the lady holding her hand up to the sky and praying was really something! XD Have a great day Dr. Masters! :)
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


It's all in your head. The human brain is exceptionally good at pattern recognition, and influencing what it perceives in random noise is very easy to do. Even in sources guaranteed to be purely random your brain will see patterns, whether they're visual or auditory. Where do you think movies like "White Noise" come from?

Probably one of the most obvious cases of the human brain implying some sort of order to nonsense are the Rorschach images used in the Rorschach test. The images themselves have no meaning at all, but what people see in them can be quite revealing. One person may see a butterfly while another person may see the face of a demon. It's very subjective and can give an indication of the mental state of person taking the test.

In short, you're seeing faces because you want to see faces. Just like when you see a bunny in the clouds, or you see Jesus in a cheese sandwich, or see Elvis on your shower curtain. It's because you want see it there.


Thank you for your comment Xyrus, that makes two rude comments for no reason now.
This definitely leads me to believe that this is not the place for me to chit chat about the weather during the off season.
In case you have forgotten Xyrus, this is a weather site. Coming on here and making an innocent comment about seeing a face in the clouds would be (or so I thought) something normal to do.
Yes, Xyrus, I have a science degree. Does that make you happy? Will you leave me alone now? Thanks....I appreciate that.
Also I have an artistic nature, and an imagination.
Imagine that.
This is the last time I will entertain a rude comment towards me on this blog. The only reason I responded to you Xyrus, is because I enjoyed reading you in the past, even though I don't agree with some of what you say.
Have a nice day.

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Quoting Patrap:


U betcha..



; )

Is that the only shower within 500 miles down by your way on radar?





Pat, thanks for posting that!

Nahhh, negative on rainfall, clear blue skies, however -
Amazing what can see with radar in clear air mode - wow, it's a fire! Went outside, saw smoke coming across, further looped the radar, got a bit alarmed as the fire's near Mom's house at Gray / B Blue - called, thankfully all okay there and adjacent property, but it's close... I'll have to investigate the source this aftn, unsure if marsh fire... or worse... Sure was towering black smoke for a bit, from my viewpoint...
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Quoting hydrus:
Not too mention that the brain is at the very least super-complex....Besides, it does not take much imagination to see bats with a lot of these ink-blot images....From Wiki....The Rorschach test (German pronunciation: [ˈʁoːɐʃax]; also known as the Rorschach inkblot test, the Rorschach technique, or simply the inkblot test) is a psychological test in which subjects' perceptions of inkblots are recorded and then analyzed using psychological interpretation, complex algorithms, or both. Some psychologists use this test to examine a person's personality characteristics and emotional functioning. It has been employed to detect underlying thought disorder, especially in cases where patients are reluctant to describe their thinking processes openly.The test is named after its creator, Swiss psychologist Hermann Rorschach.



AAARRRGGGHHH!!! It's my ex-wife!!!!!!!!!
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OR, KY, MO, KS are currently on FEMS's individual standby assistance lists.
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Quoting pottery:

What a Ghastly Thought...
I might give up showering.

Several years ago, a girl that I know fro here, was given Rorsch. test, in Toronto.
The results confused the daylights out of the test-giver, and he called the girls Father.
The test-giver said "your daughter is entirely preoccupied with Bats..."
The Father said "She lives in the Tropics, there are millions of Bats every evening. That's what your black splashes remind her of.."

The test all made sense after that. Some people interpret things very differently to what is considered the Norm.
And thank Goodness for that!
Not too mention that the brain is at the very least super-complex....Besides, it does not take much imagination to see bats with a lot of these ink-blot images....From Wiki....The Rorschach test (German pronunciation: [ˈʁoːɐʃax]; also known as the Rorschach inkblot test, the Rorschach technique, or simply the inkblot test) is a psychological test in which subjects' perceptions of inkblots are recorded and then analyzed using psychological interpretation, complex algorithms, or both. Some psychologists use this test to examine a person's personality characteristics and emotional functioning. It has been employed to detect underlying thought disorder, especially in cases where patients are reluctant to describe their thinking processes openly.The test is named after its creator, Swiss psychologist Hermann Rorschach.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
Man i need some exciting weather to keep me busy....i cant stand this whole lot of nothing. nothing but nothing!

nothing is boring.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting BobWallace:


Yes. You could get a lot more area for less money based on what containers/tanks sell for around here.

I wonder how many years you could get out of a container before rust started to effect it's integrity? Or is there a "50/100 year" way to protect one from water?

Hot rubber is commonly used for building envelope below grade and "Green roofs/roof gardens". It is inexpensive, durable, and would prevent exterior oxidization. Most roofing companies that perform BUR (hot asphaltic/tar)can apply hot rubber. Hot rubber buried below grade will last indefinitely since it primary enemy is UV.
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SOLAR FLARE ALERT: A pair of moderate solar flares, including an M2.1 at 16:16 UTC was detected.

The solar flares were centered around Sunspot 1429. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.








www.solarham.com


Magnetogram

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Quoting BobWallace:


A couple days when we were in the thick of things there were complaints about these large all-caps notices.

Now that we're in a lull, how about a discussion of a better way to present this info?

What if the site software was amended so that one could post the warning/area and highlight the area/event as a 'headline'. Think of another box in the Bold/Italic/Link/Image row.

In this case what might be displayed in the comment area could be -

"...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS/LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS..."

Someone who wanted to read the full message could click to see. Those not interested wouldn't have a screen full of CAPS.

That sort of solution work for anyone?
I have been use to the CAPS for a while. I realize sometimes they are annoying, but on the other hand, it helps me catch at a glance something I woulda missed if it was in miniscule type. On top of that I wear glasses, and majuscule print is much easier for me to read. I believe that you are not the only one who would appreciate this type of post upgrade.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
Quoting Xyrus2000:


It's all in your head. The human brain is exceptionally good at pattern recognition, and influencing what it perceives in random noise is very easy to do. Even in sources guaranteed to be purely random your brain will see patterns, whether they're visual or auditory. Where do you think movies like "White Noise" come from?

Probably one of the most obvious cases of the human brain implying some sort of order to nonsense are the Rorschach images used in the Rorschach test. The images themselves have no meaning at all, but what people see in them can be quite revealing. One person may see a butterfly while another person may see the face of a demon. It's very subjective and can give an indication of the mental state of person taking the test.

In short, you're seeing faces because you want to see faces. Just like when you see a bunny in the clouds, or you see Jesus in a cheese sandwich, or see Elvis on your shower curtain. It's because you want see it there.

What a Ghastly Thought...
I might give up showering.

Several years ago, a girl that I know fro here, was given Rorsch. test, in Toronto.
The results confused the daylights out of the test-giver, and he called the girls Father.
The test-giver said "your daughter is entirely preoccupied with Bats..."
The Father said "She lives in the Tropics, there are millions of Bats every evening. That's what your black splashes remind her of.."

The test all made sense after that. Some people interpret things very differently to what is considered the Norm.
And thank Goodness for that!
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, ditto my brother!
And we'll leave it at "Abita"...


U betcha..



; )

Is that the only shower within 500 miles down by your way on radar?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Shower curtains?

Hmmm, somehow that sounds so familiar...in a strange way, kinda like deja vu.

I can't quite place it, though.

Oh snap, wait a minute.

Now I remember..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Quoting Patrap:
Hiya' Doc, ..

Sure nuff on dem cloud's.

My interpretation's change due to my "Abita" Intake I've noticed.


; )

Dulac,La. wunderpage



LOL, ditto my brother!
And we'll leave it at "Abita"...
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There are so many ways to go with this, I don't even know where to startLink
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


It's all in your head. The human brain is exceptionally good at pattern recognition, and influencing what it perceives in random noise is very easy to do. Even in sources guaranteed to be purely random your brain will see patterns, whether they're visual or auditory. Where do you think movies like "White Noise" come from?

Probably one of the most obvious cases of the human brain implying some sort of order to nonsense are the Rorschach images used in the Rorschach test. The images themselves have no meaning at all, but what people see in them can be quite revealing. One person may see a butterfly while another person may see the face of a demon. It's very subjective and can give an indication of the mental state of person taking the test.

In short, you're seeing faces because you want to see faces. Just like when you see a bunny in the clouds, or you see Jesus in a cheese sandwich, or see Elvis on your shower curtain. It's because you want see it there.


ah...actually...I do have a picture of Elvis on my shower curtain....
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U.S. Annual Tornado Maps (1950-2009)

Mouse over image to see year. Click on image for full resolution map.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
For what it's worth, Reed Timmer is on Facebook this afternoon talking of a potential outbreak in about a week:

"No need to be alarmed just yet.. but I suspect that when this week's cut-off system ejects there will likely be some kind of tornado outbreak east of the Great Plains again. E.g. here is the GPS forecast for next Sunday. Looks like a tornado setup for the Lower MS River Valley."

And this GFS 850 flow forecast for next Sunday:

uh-oh
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
Quoting StormGoddess:

Yes ncstorm last year the same thing happened to me as well. While watching this video of the Tuscaloosa tornado I was very surprised at what I saw. There are images in the tornado that make it appear to be a face or faces. At around 4:40 is the one that got my attention.



It's all in your head. The human brain is exceptionally good at pattern recognition, and influencing what it perceives in random noise is very easy to do. Even in sources guaranteed to be purely random your brain will see patterns, whether they're visual or auditory. Where do you think movies like "White Noise" come from?

Probably one of the most obvious cases of the human brain implying some sort of order to nonsense are the Rorschach images used in the Rorschach test. The images themselves have no meaning at all, but what people see in them can be quite revealing. One person may see a butterfly while another person may see the face of a demon. It's very subjective and can give an indication of the mental state of person taking the test.

In short, you're seeing faces because you want to see faces. Just like when you see a bunny in the clouds, or you see Jesus in a cheese sandwich, or see Elvis on your shower curtain. It's because you want see it there.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1479
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's a replay of the jet stream phasing that caused this epic severe wx event.



V shaped, sharp trough
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Euro tries to spin up an Upper Low over Eastern Cuba and move it WNW or NW toward FL.

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Hiya' Doc, ..

Sure nuff on dem cloud's.

My interpretation's change due to my "Abita" Intake I've noticed.


; )

Dulac,La. wunderpage



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Quoting IFuSAYso:

With 10's of thousands of shipping containers available of various dimensions nation wide, you could waterproof and bury one below grade pretty inexpensively. To include adding a large container under a mobile home in a mobile home park large enough for several residents to take shelter.


Yes. You could get a lot more area for less money based on what containers/tanks sell for around here.

I wonder how many years you could get out of a container before rust started to effect it's integrity? Or is there a "50/100 year" way to protect one from water?
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Mowed down the weeds and grass 2 weeks ago, and with the warm weather, the Augustine grass is over growing the weeds now and weeds dying off. Best to mow it low so the grass can breathe under those weeds, get sunlight down to the runners
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Here's a replay of the jet stream phasing that caused this epic severe wx event.

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Pushing 80 here, 90s in the sun
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G'day all,
Thanks for the update, Dr Jeff.
Yep, phasing / merging of the polar & subtropical jet was indicated in all upper analysis charts, esp in the last outbreak...

As for seeing faces in the clouds discussion, well many of us are fortunate to possess both an artistic and analytical view.. and I've certainly enjoyed countless ocassions interpreting cloud shapes in their fleeting evolution as familiar faces, various animals, etc... Heck, I've probably seen George Washington turn into the Sphinx, then a dog, a cat or sheep or vice versa several times before the illusion disappears back into something further indecipherable, other than simply clouds... Also once took a photo that did indeed reveal a devilish face momentarily among a line of approaching tstms, and enjoyed the insignificant illusion...

However, it would be ironic if someone captured Alfred E Neuman within an approaching tornadic supercell!
I'd still be hauling butt into a shelter...
;)
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Lanier County South GA.




Lanier County, Georgia - Residents in Lanier County spent the day cleaning up damage left by Saturday's storms. Tornadoes ripped through the area, destroying homes.

Earl Boyett looks at what used to be the shed behind his home, a place he called paradise. "My little storage room, that is where I made things and cooked," says Earl BoyettHomeowner.

He says it was around 1 PM Saturday, when the skies turned black. "I was talking on the telephone to my daughter and she was warning me that the weather was bad and it really looked dark towards Ray City," says Boyett.

He went outside to see for himself and saw the tornado and debris in the sky. "The funnel cloud coming, the tornado itself coming," says Boyett.

Frightened by what he saw, he tried to drive to his daughters house who lives down the street.

"And I turned and run to my truck,and started out and I got out on the highway in front of the house, the power lines were across the road," says Boyett.

He was stuck in his Ford F-150 when the funnel cloud approached. "Most terrifying noise I think I ever heard, I thought I was fixing to die, because my truck was rocking and a big limb hit the back of it," says Boyett.

He says it's a miracle to alive, after seeing the damage the twister caused. "Well it looks like it is totally destroyed," says Boyett.

He plans to rebuild the house he called home for 76 years. "I thank the lord that he spared me, because I could be dead, very easy," says Boyett.

GEMA was in Lanier County Saturday morning to assess the damage. The sheriff's department is asking people to avoid the west side of the county. They set up road blocks to keep residents safe from debris.

Copyright 2012 WALB. All rights reserved.
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This was the pic of the tornadic storm in Anderson City, GA.

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Here's a funnel at VADA,GA at 8:35 am Saturday.

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Attention Angela!!!! I'm just wonderin'.....Do you happen to know where the president-elect of the American Meteorological Society heads the Atmospheric Sciences Program?Link
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Just in case people forgot but S GA & N FL saw many tornadoes on Saturday some causing significant damage.


Lanier County, South GA.




This Tornado was in Ware County, GA.

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Geez low level lapse rates are high again today, over 8.5
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Most trailer parks (at least in this area) have a community shelter inside the park, large enough to house its residents. I believe if you are the owner of a trailer park in tornado prone areas, you should be required to provide shelter for your tenants. To eleviate the cost you could just add a few bucks a month to your lot rent. Most residents shouldn't complain too much to pay a few extra bucks for that kind of safety!


A design style with potential for a large scale Apt /Condo Community could be adapted from Military design's, which are many.





An Example of a Cut and Cover Bunker
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
hjldddddddddjjjklllll;fddddddd


^so there must be something magnetic underneath the J,K,D and L keys. lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting StormTracker2K:


TX is going to get deluged later this week. Could be a pretty serious flood event on the way for you guys despite the drought your in.

They certainly still need the rain. Aquifers are still a long way from normal.....Historic lows

Bob Patterson, president of the Upper Trinity Groundwater Conservation District, which covers Parker, Montague, Wise and Hood counties, said the drought has caused aquifer levels to dip 20 feet in many areas and 50 feet or so in places.

The drop has been even deeper in parts of the Blanco-Pedernales Groundwater Conservation District in Central Texas, General Manager Ron Fieseler said.

It's so bad that the district's namesake rivers, the Blanco and Pedernales, are no longer flowing, he said.

"I've got one well where we had a 30-foot drop in one week," he said.

The decline in aquifers is happening statewide, said Jim Conkwright, president of the Texas Alliance of Groundwater Districts and general manager of the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District, based in Lubbock. "I think anyone that has a water well is seeing a decline this summer," he said.

Wells are at historic lows in the Lipan-Kickapoo Water Conservation District, which covers three rural counties around San Angelo, General Manager Allan Lange said.

"It's worse than the drought we had in the '50s. It's off the charts," Lange said. Stringent watering restrictions are in place at the Cow Creek Groundwater Conservation District in Kendall County, northwest of San Antonio, General Manager Micah Voulgaris said.

"When the cedar trees are dying, you know it's dry," he said. "We've only had 4.8 inches of rainfall this year. The average since 1893 is 16.7 inches."

A mandatory 40 percent reduction is in place for well water users. Cars can't be washed at home. Pools can't be filled using groundwater. Lawn watering is limited to one day a week and only by hand -- no sprinklers allowed, Voulgaris said.

"People are learning to adjust. Rainwater systems have caught on. But you need rain for that to work," he said. "It's pretty bad when people are praying for a hurricane."

The aquifer declines have had the biggest impact on wells 200 feet deep or less.

"People tend to drill to where everyone else is getting water. If the neighbor got it at 200, that's where they want to go," Kaiser said.

Watts said many of the problems he's seeing are in subdivisions where the "straws all went down to the same level."

Ultimately, going deep is the only protection, Kaiser said.

"The reality in Texas, if you want to be out of the city -- if want your own little patch of heaven -- in a drought you are most at risk if you can't afford the cost of putting in a really deep well," he said.

Groundwater managers say rain is their only hope.

"I've been praying for a 10-inch rain in about four hours -- it's going to take a lot of runoff to recharge our aquifer," Lange said.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/07/24/3241673/dr ought-is-taking-toll-on-texas.html#storylink=cpy
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
Quoting RitaEvac:
Rains a'comin for TX


Lets hope it pans out! I was hoping for that updated precip map to move farther south into the Houston area
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 622
GFS ensembles are wanting to pinch off an upper level low somewhere near FL or just of the east coast. This maybe an are to watch next week for possible Sub Tropical formation.
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Quoting BobWallace:


A few years back I was thinking that it would be nice to have a wine/"root" cellar. The local company that makes concrete septic tank said that they could change their forms around, take out the inside divider and plumbing holes, add a door opening and sell me a concrete cellar for about the price of a septic tank.

They're all set up to deliver tanks and a installation hole could be dug with a back hoe.

Strikes me as this sort of approach could be used to create affordable storm shelters. Pre-fab, drop in.

(Perhaps it's already being done. I left tornado country long ago....)

With 10's of thousands of shipping containers available of various dimensions nation wide, you could waterproof and bury one below grade pretty inexpensively. To include adding a large container under a mobile home in a mobile home park large enough for several residents to take shelter.
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Quoting hydrus:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
754 AM EST MON MAR 05 2012

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 09 2012 - 12Z MON MAR 12 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS/LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR 45N 175W AND A
NEGATIVE ANOMALY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF GREENLAND FAVOR
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TROUGHING OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THE DEGREE OF RIDGING
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SHOULD ALLOW ENERGY FROM THE
WESTERLIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE NEAR THE 40TH PARALLEL...WHICH
SHOULD HELP URGE THE DEEP CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
FLOW PATTERN...WITH DETAIL ISSUES GENERALLY CONSTRAINED TO THE
EJECTING DEEP CYCLONE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE SLOWEST WITH ITS PROGRESSION /ONE OF ITS NORMAL BIASES/ WHILE
THE 00Z GFS AND SOME OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE THE
QUICKEST /THEIR NORMAL BIAS/. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD
AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL CHOICE TO ONE WHICH
IS BELOW AVERAGE. SINCE THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT...USED A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A SIMPLE COMPROMISE/BLEND
OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THEREAFTER. THIS MAINTAINED REASONABLE
CONTINUITY FROM NIGHT SHIFT AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF USUAL BIASES
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS /SLOW AND QUICK WITH SYSTEM
PROGRESSION RESPECTIVELY/.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 3-7 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...BUT COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING.
PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER THINKING AND THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED WITH WARM CORE RIDGING LYING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO LIE NEAR AND BEHIND THE POLAR COLD
FRONT /AN ANAFRONT SITUATION/ WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THIS FLOW
PATTERN FAVORS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD.

ROTH


A couple days when we were in the thick of things there were complaints about these large all-caps notices.

Now that we're in a lull, how about a discussion of a better way to present this info?

What if the site software was amended so that one could post the warning/area and highlight the area/event as a 'headline'. Think of another box in the Bold/Italic/Link/Image row.

In this case what might be displayed in the comment area could be -

"...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS/LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS..."

Someone who wanted to read the full message could click to see. Those not interested wouldn't have a screen full of CAPS.

That sort of solution work for anyone?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Rains a'comin for TX


I'm glad for you guys! I saw something on the news I believe last week that some of the lakes near Austin, TX are nearly empty STILL. So there is still a lot of catching up to do there.
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Rains a'comin for TX
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Quoting Patrap:
Necessity, being the mother of invention,


A few years back I was thinking that it would be nice to have a wine/"root" cellar. The local company that makes concrete septic tank said that they could change their forms around, take out the inside divider and plumbing holes, add a door opening and sell me a concrete cellar for about the price of a septic tank.

They're all set up to deliver tanks and a installation hole could be dug with a back hoe.

Strikes me as this sort of approach could be used to create affordable storm shelters. Pre-fab, drop in.

(Perhaps it's already being done. I left tornado country long ago....)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
754 AM EST MON MAR 05 2012

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 09 2012 - 12Z MON MAR 12 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS/LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR 45N 175W AND A
NEGATIVE ANOMALY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF GREENLAND FAVOR
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TROUGHING OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THE DEGREE OF RIDGING
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SHOULD ALLOW ENERGY FROM THE
WESTERLIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE NEAR THE 40TH PARALLEL...WHICH
SHOULD HELP URGE THE DEEP CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
FLOW PATTERN...WITH DETAIL ISSUES GENERALLY CONSTRAINED TO THE
EJECTING DEEP CYCLONE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE SLOWEST WITH ITS PROGRESSION /ONE OF ITS NORMAL BIASES/ WHILE
THE 00Z GFS AND SOME OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE THE
QUICKEST /THEIR NORMAL BIAS/. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD
AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL CHOICE TO ONE WHICH
IS BELOW AVERAGE. SINCE THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT...USED A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A SIMPLE COMPROMISE/BLEND
OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THEREAFTER. THIS MAINTAINED REASONABLE
CONTINUITY FROM NIGHT SHIFT AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF USUAL BIASES
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS /SLOW AND QUICK WITH SYSTEM
PROGRESSION RESPECTIVELY/.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 3-7 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...BUT COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING.
PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER THINKING AND THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED WITH WARM CORE RIDGING LYING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO LIE NEAR AND BEHIND THE POLAR COLD
FRONT /AN ANAFRONT SITUATION/ WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THIS FLOW
PATTERN FAVORS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD.

ROTH
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon everybody. I agree with this. While the lead time on tornadoes is not anywhere near what there is for hurricanes, it is possible to take more precautions than that family took. At least bring all the children downstairs together overnight. Have a "family sleepover", with sleeping bags or what have you, in an area near your safe room.
Absolutely; when your area is under a nighttime Tornado Watch, think about keeping your kids, pets, and yourself together (along with important papers and valuables)--with both access to shelter, and a clear plan for everyone to follow if you have to awaken them in the middle of the night. Confusion and panic are a lethal combination...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
The CMC is an old run, but rain will be the story in the coming days.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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