High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

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A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.


Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!


Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1041 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...OR 13 MILES WEST OF LEBANON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LEBANON...CLEVELAND...HANSONVILLE...HILANDER PARK...HOLSTON...
LINDELL...EMORY-MEADOW VIEW...HONAKER...ROSEDALE...GLADE SPRING AND
DYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
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Quoting Patrap:



F5 is an interesting name for a TVS
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The rotation went right over Cookeville, TN. Someone with better radar confirm that? (I'm on NWS site's radar)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
tornado warnings are happening HOURS before the event was supposed to happen..not good at all!
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Morning. Just keeping my fingers crossed this morning for no fatalities as the system progresses. Lots of trailers and the like in the country and suburban areas where the system will be crossing today so I hope that folks will have a suitable shelter on standby if the need arises.
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Radar continues to indicate a likely small tornado near Hazel Green, AL, just north of Huntsville. Tight, strong circulation with 90-100kts of shear at only ~1500ft continues to support high likelihood.

Wider circulation just east of Athens, AL, has broadened and slightly weakened, but environment, storm structure, and evident mesocyclone continue to indicate that a tornado could develop at any time.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EST

* AT 1042 AM EST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL
IN PLAINFIELD. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEBANON TO MOORESVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INDIANAPOLIS...
BROWNSBURG...
LEBANON...
SPEEDWAY...
SOUTHPORT...
ZIONSVILLE...
BEECH GROVE...
CARMEL...
LAWRENCE...
FISHERS...
NOBLESVILLE...
GREENFIELD...
TIPTON...
INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRPORT...
CLERMONT...
ULEN...
EAGLE CREEK RESERVOIR...
HOMECROFT...
WHITESTOWN...
MONUMENT CIRCLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 102 AND 140.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 22.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 110.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 98.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Another one quick on the heels south of athens
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891
WUUS54 KMRX 021545
SVRMRX
VAC167-191-021615-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0028.120302T1545Z-120302T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1041 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...OR 13 MILES WEST OF LEBANON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LEBANON...CLEVELAND...HANSONVILLE...HILANDER PARK...HOLSTON...
LINDELL...EMORY-MEADOW VIEW...HONAKER...ROSEDALE...GLADE SPRING AND
DYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.



LAT...LON 3704 8181 3696 8177 3692 8183 3679 8169
3676 8168 3673 8230 3688 8240 3690 8237
3689 8232 3690 8230 3695 8232 3705 8215
3706 8205 3713 8200 3714 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1545Z 244DEG 41KT 3685 8225
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Uh oh....
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.
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364
WFUS54 KHUN 021541
TORHUN
ALC071-089-TNC051-103-021615-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0006.120302T1541Z-120302T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 940 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MERIDIANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING DAMAGE...TAKE SHELTER IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH!

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
PLEVNA.
ELORA.
FRANCISCO.
MAXWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A
CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.



LAT...LON 3513 8620 3491 8608 3481 8668 3491 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 249DEG 44KT 3489 8657
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I think it may have been EF4 through that area. So many tornadoes, hard to keep track.

Circulation moving through north Huntsville metro now headed for Meridianville area. Damage reported in Harvest area. Circulation has decreased; too early to determine if it has weakened or if is cycling to a new circulation

Southern circulation moving into Tanner and south Athens areas has me more concerned. Larger, stronger circulation on radar, coincident with a a BWER as low as ~3900ft! Spectrum width spike not as evident as Harvest area, however.
yeah, I thought it was the EF-5 that tracked across northern Alabama, but I guess I got the wrong area. So many tornadoes that day I don't know which cities got hit or not and how strong the tornadoes were.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INC019-025-061-117-175-021545-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-120302T1545Z/
WASHINGTON IN-ORANGE IN-HARRISON IN-CLARK IN-CRAWFORD IN-
1030 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EST
FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...WESTERN CLARK...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1030 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HARDINSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
SALEM...
ROSEBUD AND ORGAN SPRINGS...
BECKS MILL AND SHORTS CORNER...
HARRISTOWN AND FARABEE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 8629 3851 8643 3872 8610 3849 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 237DEG 48KT 3847 8626
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MP
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If one is going to roll info, please check the Board for the info posted b-4 doubling the warnings, if your ignoring folks, best to clear your iggy board as well.

Thanx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Rotation about to enter Cookeville, TN. It's a town of 30,000. Not good at all.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 935 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TANNER...OR
ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
FRENCH MILL.
CAPSHAW.
HARVEST.
HARVEST.
MERIDIANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A
CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
D*** these rotations are going to have close call with Harvest, Alabama. They got hit hard by EF-5 on April 27, if I remembered correctly.


I think it may have been EF4 through that area. So many tornadoes, hard to keep track.

Circulation moving through north Huntsville metro now headed for Meridianville area. Damage reported in Harvest area. Circulation has decreased; too early to determine if it has weakened or if is cycling to a new circulation

Southern circulation moving into Tanner and south Athens areas has me more concerned. Larger, stronger circulation on radar, coincident with a a BWER as low as ~3900ft! Spectrum width spike not as evident as Harvest area, however. Continued path motion of just north of due east could put this cell into the central parts of the Huntsville metro within 30 minutes.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
AT 925 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARVEST...OR ABOUT 9
MILES NORTH OF MADISON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

AT 925 AM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF LIMESTONE COUNTY REPORTED
TORNADO DAMAGE TO HOUSES BETWEEN ATHENS AND EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
HIGH SCHOOL.
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751
WFUS54 KHUN 021535
TORHUN
ALC083-089-021600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0005.120302T1535Z-120302T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 935 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TANNER...OR
ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
FRENCH MILL.
CAPSHAW.
HARVEST.
HARVEST.
MERIDIANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A
CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.



LAT...LON 3476 8646 3464 8701 3465 8705 3479 8714
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
To the person on the old blog who said there was no rain on April 27th morning, there was.... this proves it. The rain dissipated by the time they reached Georgia, however Alabama/Tennessee, where it did rain, had it worse than we did. While the rain/clouds might help to weaken the instability, I wouldn't count on it.






Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1029 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANAWHA COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN RALEIGH COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1028 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MALLORY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOGAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OCEANA...WHARTON...BALD KNOB...BURNWELL...MOUNT HOPE...POWELLTON
AND OAK HILL.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...THE WEST VIRGINIA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 70.
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Moving rapidly towards Indianapolis! After that, it will get me.
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D*** these rotations are going to have close call with Harvest, Alabama. They got hit hard by EF-5 on April 27, if I remembered correctly.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I see two rotations in area between Florence and Huntsville in Alabama. It's one of those one-two punch tornadoes.


Radar continuing to depict a likely tornado moving through Harvest, AL. 90kts of tight shear estimated ~2300ft coincident with strong spectrum width spike making radar-only confidence high that a tornado may already be on the ground.

New circulation west of Tanner likely to move into Tanner and south Athens, AL, areas shortly.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1028 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF BEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...
HELTONVILLE...
MEDORA...
PLEASANT VIEW...
NORMAN...
KURTZ...
FREETOWN...
ELKINSVILLE...
STORY...
SPURGEONS CORNER...
CORTLAND...
STONE HEAD...
WAYMANSVILLE...
JONESVILLE...
AZALIA...
ELIZABETHTOWN...
TAYLORSVILLE...
GRAMMER...
CLIFFORD...
NEWBERN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 55 AND 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
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SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL 300
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...

DISCUSSION...A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED
WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. MODIFICATION OF
12Z BNA AND HUNTSVILLE SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...MEAD
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
622. StormTracker2K 3:16 PM GMT on March 02, 2012 +1
Quoting WDEmobmet:


looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...

Use this link below to get your EHI values below. This should work.

Link
Action: Quote | Ignore User

Ahhhh thank you
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784
WUUS51 KRLX 021529
SVRRLX
WVC005-019-039-045-081-109-021615-
/O.NEW.KRLX.SV.W.0006.120302T1529Z-120302T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1029 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANAWHA COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN RALEIGH COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1028 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MALLORY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOGAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OCEANA...WHARTON...BALD KNOB...BURNWELL...MOUNT HOPE...POWELLTON
AND OAK HILL.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...THE WEST VIRGINIA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 70.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3765 8180 3766 8180 3766 8182 3780 8191
3814 8126 3793 8107 3763 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 239DEG 47KT 3777 8174
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
If you have access to NWS Live Chat, Louisville and Nashville WFO's are the place to be right now.
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN OVERTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 924 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAXTER...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SMITHVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BAXTER AROUND 935 AM CST.
COOKEVILLE AROUND 940 AM CST.
ALGOOD AROUND 945 AM CST.
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I see two rotations in area between Florence and Huntsville in Alabama. It's one of those one-two punch tornadoes.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
The Fuel is n place, the Jet is in Full Play, and the Sun Angle is rising every Minute. Now is the time to prepare and have a safe place to go in the event of a Tornado Warning.

Be sure to advise your friends and elderly neighbors who may not be aware of this Situation, be Pro-active and pass the Word.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting AussieStorm:

Radar information depicts a likely tornado on the ground moving into north Madison, AL, and Harvest, AL, areas.

Off to an early start. I hope the early-outs for schools in Tennessee are early enough.
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
The primary event hasn't even started yet, and we are already going Tornado Warned.
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Just checking in with weather. I see that we got high risk now. Also slight risk expended into my area in North Carolina plus storms to our SW. It's going to be a long day in North Carolina.... but not as long as Tennessee/Ohio Valley.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021507Z - 021600Z

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A
WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z
QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT
WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO
SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING
MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.

.
.
.
.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021522Z - 021715Z

A RAPID INCREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY
MIDDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC 500 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS
OF INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...AS ITS EXIT REGION NOSES
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MODELS
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARPENING OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY
LINE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...MAY SERVE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE
STORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
JET...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTSET...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND DAMAGING TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW /50-60 KT/...CELLS
WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
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Wow. Looks like the severe wx somebody was wishing for is coming to parts of the US....

Stay safe, all!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
TORNADO WARNING
ALC083-089-021545-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0004.120302T1518Z-120302T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 918 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRENCH
MILL...OR ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
CAPSHAW.
HARVEST.
MERIDIANVILLE.
HAZEL GREEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8642 3473 8693 3482 8697 3500 8652
3499 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 249DEG 39KT 3479 8687

$$
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SPC Multi-Media Briefing
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-OH124C9F7665BC.SpecialWeatherState ment.124C9F768E5COH.RLXSPSRLX.33a46b8bc83013245abb f2c926848c47 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 10:11 EST on 03-02-2012
Effective: 10:11 EST on 03-02-2012
Expires: 11:15 EST on 03-02-2012
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...EASTERN CARTER...
LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...LOGAN...MINGO...NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENUP...SOUTHERN CABELL...SOUTHWESTERN BOONE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES...

AT 1006 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
INEZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CLIFFORD AROUND 1020 AM...DUNLOW AROUND 1030
AM...KIAHSVILLE AROUND 1040 AM...MYRA AROUND 1050 AM AND HAMLIN
AROUND 1100 AM.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 164 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20
IN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.
PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Lawrence
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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