High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

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A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.


Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!


Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EST

* AT 224 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FONTANA VILLAGE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF ROBBINSVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWFOUND GAP...
SMOKEMONT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER.
OTHERWISE...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME
OR PLACE OF BUSINESS. MAKE SURE THERE ARE AS MANY WALLS AND FLOORS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS WILL PRECEDE THE TORNADO. WIND DRIVEN HAIL OF THIS SIZE
POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF INJURY AND DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES AND
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF
BUSINESS.
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for tomorrow....
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Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (90%)
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST.

* AT 124 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF SHAWNEETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MORGANFIELD...BRECKINRIDGE CENTER...UNIONTOWN...CORYDON...ROBARDS
AND WAVERLY.
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331
WFUS53 KPAH 021928
TORPAH
ILC059-KYC101-225-022000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0043.120302T1928Z-120302T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST.

* AT 124 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF SHAWNEETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MORGANFIELD...BRECKINRIDGE CENTER...UNIONTOWN...CORYDON...ROBARDS
AND WAVERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3762 8821 3771 8823 3778 8797 3777 8795
3779 8794 3786 8768 3783 8768 3782 8764
3785 8759 3766 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 251DEG 57KT 3766 8809
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST.

* AT 124 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
WEST OF LOVELACEVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARDWELL...AND
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
LONE OAK...REIDLAND...LOVELACEVILLE...LOWES AND SYMSONIA.
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Severe thunderstorm warning in Louisiana


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC027-061-111-022015-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0030.120302T1919Z-120302T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOMER...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 118 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HOMER...OR 3 MILES NORTH OF ATHENS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BERNICE AND FARMERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 9302 3284 9312 3301 9246 3301 9243
3267 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 250DEG 35KT 3273 9298
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
222 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EST

* AT 218 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SHOALS...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEDFORD...
HURON...
WILLIAMS...
MITCHELL...
SPRING MILL STATE PARK...
TUNNELTON...
OOLITIC...
AVOCA...
BARTLETTSVILLE...
HELTONVILLE...
NORMAN...
KURTZ...
PLEASANT VIEW...
MEDORA...
CHARLES DEAM WILDERNESS...
FREETOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
110 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1247 PM TSTM WND DMG POSEYVILLE 38.17N 87.78W
03/02/2012 POSEY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

LATE REPORT...SHERIFF REPORTING SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL
STRUCTURE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL POSY COUNTY.




PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
107 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0104 PM TSTM WND DMG EVANSVILLE 37.98N 87.54W
03/02/2012 VANDERBURGH IN BROADCAST MEDIA

NEWS MEDIA IS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT STORM DAMAGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF VANDERBURGH COUNTY.


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TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

Funnel cloud sighted in southern Dubois Co., IN. Another cell w/ strong rotation moving in.
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Noting a faint hook once again near Wadeville...

Link
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Some more supercells forming in Alabama southwestward to Louisiana. Here we go.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
123 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
WESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST.

* AT 120 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF NEW
COLUMBIA...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF METROPOLIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MARION...GOLCONDA...BURNA...JOY...SALEM AND CARRSVILLE.
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SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
PM EST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...MEAD
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Just got our Tornado Watch for the day:

Statement as of 1:20 PM CST on March 02, 2012


The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 59 in
effect until 9 PM CST this evening for the following areas

In Tennessee this watch includes 39 counties

In middle Tennessee

Bedford Benton Cannon
Cheatham Clay Coffee
Cumberland Davidson DeKalb
Dickson Fentress Giles
Grundy Hickman Houston
Humphreys Jackson Lawrence
Lewis Macon Marshall
Maury Montgomery Overton
Perry Pickett Putnam
Robertson Rutherford Smith
Stewart Sumner Trousdale
Van Buren Warren Wayne
white Williamson Wilson

This includes the cities of... Allardt... Altamont... Ashland City...
Brentwood... Byrdstown... Camden... Carthage... Celina...
Centerville... Clarksville... Columbia... Cookeville... Crossville...
Dickson... Dover... Erin... Franklin... Gainesboro... Gallatin...
Hartsville... Hohenwald... Jamestown... Lafayette... Lawrenceburg...
Lewisburg... Linden... Livingston... Lobelville... Manchester...
McMinnville... Mount Juliet... Murfreesboro... Nashville... Pulaski...
Shelbyville... Smithville... Sparta... Spencer... Springfield...
Tennessee Ridge... Tullahoma... Waverly... Waynesboro and Woodbury.
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This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0059
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.

WOUS64 KWNS 021918
WOU9

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 59
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

TORNADO WATCH 59 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC009-033-043-049-057-059-071-073-075-077-079-083 -089-093-095-
103-107-125-127-133-030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0059.120302T1920Z-120303T0300Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
DEKALB FAYETTE FRANKLIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON


MSC003-007-009-013-015-017-019-025-043-051-053-057 -071-081-087-
093-095-097-103-105-115-117-125-139-141-145-155-15 9-161-163-
030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0059.120302T1920Z-120303T0300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN ATTALA BENTON
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE LOWNDES
MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS SHARKEY TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO


TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039 -041-043-047-
049-051-053-055-061-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-08 5-087-099-101-
103-109-111-113-117-119-125-127-133-135-137-141-14 7-149-159-161-
165-169-175-177-181-183-185-187-189-030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0059.120302T1920Z-120303T0300Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD BENTON CANNON
CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER
CLAY COFFEE CROCKETT
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR
DE KALB DICKSON FAYETTE
FENTRESS FRANKLIN GIBSON
GILES GRUNDY HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MACON
MADISON MARSHALL MAURY
MCNAIRY MONTGOMERY MOORE
OVERTON PERRY PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SMITH STEWART SUMNER
TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN
WAYNE WEAKLEY WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON


ATTN...WFO...BMX...OHX...MEG...HUN...JAN...
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Quoting Patrap:



I'm gonna take 10-15 for Lunch and a Cold FRESCA of course. : )


Thanx for rolling info too.
take a little spin in the space ship while you are on lunch too

lol

:)
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Updated SPC page
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Good afternoon...
These storms started cranking a lot earlier than I though. A high risk from the SPC. Wow.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOMER...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 118 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HOMER...OR 3 MILES NORTH OF ATHENS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BERNICE AND FARMERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

#Tornado warning for far NW suburbs of Indianapolis.
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
216 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EST...

* AT 214 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
ACROSS SOUTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...
PAOLI...
ENGLISH...
RICEVILLE AND ECKERTY...
TASWELL AND MIFFLIN...
FARGO AND ETHEL...
VALEENE AND BACON...
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
115 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST.

* AT 113 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIDGEPORT...OR NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BILLETT...PINKSTAFF AND LAWRENCEVILLE AIRPORT.
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Quoting jamesrainier:


No kidding.

Just got a free drink at Starbucks. :)



I'm gonna take 10-15 for Lunch and a Cold FRESCA of course. : )


Thanx for rolling info too.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
213 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 300 PM EST

* AT 210 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TAPOCO...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROBBINSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CADES COVE AND TOWNSEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe you need to get out the Spaceship and stretch your legs a tad.

: )


No kidding.

Just got a free drink at Starbucks. :)
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Tornado damage in N Madison Co Ala. North of Winchester Rd.

by: James Spann

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST.

* AT 106 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARRIERS MILLS...OR 14
MILES SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
KARBERS RIDGE AND GROSS.
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.
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Maybe you need to get out the Spaceship and stretch your legs a tad.

: )
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
209 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EST

* AT 204 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF
CRAWFORDSVILLE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF GREENCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
MOORESVILLE...
BELLE UNION...
NEW ROSS...
COATESVILLE...
EMINENCE...
LITTLE POINT...
NORTH SALEM...
STILESVILLE...
AMO...
CLAYTON...
MONROVIA...
LAKE HART...
CENTERTON...
BETHANY...
BROOKLYN...
WAVERLY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 66.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
109 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CST.

* AT 106 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNNVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF OAKLAND
CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

THIS TORNADO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTION TO HOMES IN
NORTHERN POSEY COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WARRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN
PIKE COUNTIES.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
109 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST.

* AT 106 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KARNAK...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF LA CENTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
NEW COLUMBIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.



A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
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Pulling the cold air down quickly, back to normal - Spfld is 44, StL is 47, 19 degree drop in little over an hour for Spfld. Had a bad feeling that line would start flaring between I-57 and IN border.
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Why dont you EVER include the text for the Solar Update Keep?

Lordy Man.

www.solarham.com

Moderate Solar Flare



A moderate solar flare reaching M3.3 took place at 17:46 UTC Friday afternoon around a new sunspot rotating into view on the northeast limb. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for all of the latest information. You can also follow the latest updates on SolarHam Facebook and clicking "LIKE".


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SPC on "outbreak"


What was the biggest outbreak of tornadoes? As with the previous question, that depends on how you measure or bracket an "outbreak". SPC typically uses the 24-hour "convective day" starting and ending at 12 UTC (7 a.m. CDT). By that cut-off, the greatest swarm of tornadoes was 175 on 27-28 April 2011. This supplanted the "Super Outbreak" of 147 known U. S. tornadoes on 3-4 April, 1974. The 1974 outbreak still holds the record for the most F5 tornadoes with seven, as opposed to four in the 2011 event. Only one other outbreak yielded over 100 confirmed tornadoes--Hurricane Beulah in 1967 (115). [Hurricane Ivan of 2004 produced 118 tornadoes in three days, but in three distinct, daily cycles.]
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FWIW, this is only the tenth March "High Risk" day since the SPC began declaring them in 1984, the last one being in 2008. (January has seen one, and February just two.)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
generally speaking, if there's a lull of six hours or more, it's considered a separate outbreak. It should, however, be considered part of a single outbreak sequence.


Actually it's two different storm systems. This low formed yesterday. The other moved out NEWD yesterday. They just happen to be in the same area. Two different troughs (mid-lat cyclones/low pressure systems), separated by 24+ hours, therefore two different outbreaks.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Probably something you'll have to inquire with the MRX NWS office about.

Although I know a decent amount about severe weather and radar detection and have been through warning training, I actually work at a regional river forecast center. We cover a good chunk of the south central US, mostly tributaries going into the Lower Miss River. That's why I know the terrain up in those parts pretty well, as it is important to runoff/flooding processes :)


Thanks Scott, I will send them something about it as well.

You will definitely know the terrain with that job!
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Tornadic cell is south of Harrisburg, folks need to take cover as this is a Dangerous Large Tornado apparently.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.