High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

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A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.


Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!


Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EST/245 PM CST/

* AT 309 PM EST/209 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DUFF TO HOLLAND TO
16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLLAND...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
SAINT MARKS AND SAINT ANTHONY...
CELESTINE AND TROY...
SASSAFRAS AND RANGER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
I think we are going to exceed the previous record for tornadoes.. we have many hours still to go today. God help us!
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Man these storms are springing up everywhere. Wind here is blowing over forty with the Sun shining. Tornadic supercells forming rapidly to my south and headed toward areas already hit. I do believe that I will not be as fortunate this time around.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST.

* AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES WEST OF FARMERSVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MARION...AND
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
DAWSON SPRINGS...MADISONVILLE...CRESWELL...OLNEY...EARLIN GTON...
NORTONVILLE...MORTONS GAP...FRYER...ST. CHARLES AND WHITE PLAINS.
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PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
304 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-077> 079-081-022215-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT -PENDLETON-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-BUTLER-HAMILTON-CLE RMONT-BROWN-
ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...
VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...CARROLLTON...
WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA.. .OWENTON...
WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET...
MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...HAMILTON...CINCINNATI...M ILFORD...
GEORGETOWN...WEST UNION
304 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TOWARD THE TRI-STATE...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL SPREAD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL OHIO AFTER 330 PM.

WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...THE AREA OF
MOST CONCERN FOR SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES...AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS
GREATEST FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FROM THE
LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST. REMAIN ALERT FOR
WARNINGS. FORM A PLAN NOW OF NOT ONLY HOW YOU WILL RECEIVE THE
WARNING INFORMATION...BUT WHAT SPECIFIC ACTIONS YOU WILL TAKE.

WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED OR THREATENING WEATHER MOVES IN...SEEK
SHELTER IN THE LOWEST POSSIBLE LEVEL OF A STURDY STRUCTURE. PUT AS
MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE STORM AS POSSIBLE. MOVE UNDER HEAVY
FURNITURE AND CONSIDER WEARING A BICYCLE HELMET TO PROTECT YOUR
HEAD FROM FALLING DEBRIS. CONSIDER THE EFFECTS OF POWER
OUTAGES...SO FLASHLIGHTS...WEATHER RADIOS...AND CELLULAR PHONES
ARE ITEMS TO BE SURE YOU HAVE WITH YOU.

THIS IS AN VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADO WARNINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

$$

BINAU
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Good gracious ..Take cover


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
212 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
EASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST.

* AT 210 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR DIXON...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
CALHOUN...SEBREE...BEECH GROVE...SLAUGHTERS AND MOSELEYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
201 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 201 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TREBLOC...
OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOUSTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AMORY...
FULTON AND OKOLONA.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BAY SPRINGS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF FARMERVILLE...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUTTIG...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARION...CECIL...LINVILLE...LITROE...SPENCER AND HAILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND GOLFBALLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
SOUTH OF BERNICE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
204 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 204 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
SABOUGLA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA...AND MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OKTIBBEHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF STARKVILLE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 206 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LONGVIEW MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SESSUMS BY 215 PM CST...
MULDROW BY 220 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
206 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLBERT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 201 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MAUD...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF IUKA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARTON...CHEROKEE...
PRIDE LANDING...
OAKLAND...SHEFFIELD...
FLORENCE...UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MARIETTA
MISSISSIPPI WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
NORTHERN CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAKE VILLAGE...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 209 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NORTH CROSSETT MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HAMBURG BY 215 PM CST...
SNYDER BY 230 PM CST...
PORTLAND BY 235 PM CST...
MONTROSE BY 240 PM CST...
MCMILLAN CORNER AND LAKE VILLAGE BY 255 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST.

* AT 206 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM DALE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 60
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
SANTA CLAUS AND CHRISNEY.
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Clay, KY


0210 PM TORNADO CLAY 37.48N 87.82W
03/02/2012 WEBSTER KY STORM CHASER

VERY LARGE TORNADO REPORTED BY STORM CHASER JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE COMMUNITY OF CLAY.

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
TRIMBLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EST...

* AT 305 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
BUNKER HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 TO 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...
BEDFORD...
SCOTTSBURG...
MADISON...
UNDERWOOD AND VIENNA...
LEXINGTON AND NABB...
SWANVILLE AND CHELSEA...
HANOVER BEACH AND HANOVER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Henderson, KY


0205 PM TORNADO HENDERSON 37.84N 87.58W
03/02/2012 HENDERSON KY TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO SPOTTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER ON EAST SIDE OF
COMMUNITY. NUMEROUS POWER FLASHES AND LOUD ROAR.

just watched a storm chaser on cnn, he said 6 tornado's on the ground, one huge on was estimated at 300 yards wide..folks Please..heed your local warnings
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Quoting jamesrainier:
TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

Scanner traffic: #Tornado reported in srn Washington Co., IN. Folks in New Pekin, IN move to shelter now!

CNN repoting a large tornado on the ground in that area
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Quoting wxmod:
Dust from red flag winds over drought in TX and NM may be feeding the line of thunderstorms to the East. Aerosol map from today.

..that would truly suk! cells starting to fire upwind of us now.. winds steady at 18 gusting to 40 and 81 degrees.. March roaring in like a lion I guess..
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Statement as of 4:48 PM EST on March 1, 2012

... Record high temperature set at Melbourne, FL today...

A record high temperature of 87 degrees was set at Melbourne today.
This breaks the previous record of 85 last observed in 1962.

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Henderson, KY


0205 PM TORNADO HENDERSON 37.84N 87.58W
03/02/2012 HENDERSON KY TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO SPOTTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER ON EAST SIDE OF
COMMUNITY. NUMEROUS POWER FLASHES AND LOUD ROAR.

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Cell C9 is developing a Debris Ball maybe

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Quoting JNCali:
Storm reports so far....


Bad Stuff....
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cnn live tornado outbreak
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Updated outlook.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN
VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...KENTUCKY...MOST OF
TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND
LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH/TN VALLEYS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
INTO THE CAROLINAS/WRN VA AND VICINITY...

...OH/LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS UNDERWAY...WITH SEVERE/SUPERCELL
STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE RISK AREA. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END
EVENTS CAPABLE OF SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.

MAIN CHANGES THIS FORECAST ARE CONFINED TO ADJUSTMENTS ON THE NWRN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE EWD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS BROUGHT THE THREAT TO AN END ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF IL AND MO.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/02/2012

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2003Z (3:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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Screen shots off of Lousiville TV:

uh-oh

uh-oh

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NC AND NWRN SC...NRN GA...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 021958Z - 022100Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
ORIENTED E-W ACROSS FAR NWRN SC...ARCING BACK TOWARDS THE NE ALONG
NEAR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. A LONE WEAKENING
SUPERCELL WAS NOTED ON 1950Z RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWAIN
COUNTY NC. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

FARTHER S/W...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE ALLOWED AMPLE SFC HEATING TO
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF NRN GA AND ERN TN...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED.
WEAK ECHOES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR RECENTLY AS WAA HAS INCREASED WITHIN A BROAD
LLJ. BACKGROUND FLOW FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS...WITH FFC VWP DATA SHOWING A STRONG CYCLONICALLY
CURVED HODOGRAPH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
GIVEN ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.


..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012


ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON 35938244 35128280 34528329 34128403 34168495 34388535
34778533 36438457 36638327 36518219 35938244
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
Storm reports so far....

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521. wxmod
Dust from red flag winds over drought in TX and NM may be feeding the line of thunderstorms to the East. Aerosol map from today.

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
203 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 201 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE...OR 18 MILES SOUTH
OF PULASKI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
GILES COUNTY...INCLUDING ARDMORE.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

Scanner traffic: #Tornado reported in srn Washington Co., IN. Folks in New Pekin, IN move to shelter now!
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
200 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 200 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ELKMONT...
OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HOLLAND GIN.
ARDMORE.
CASH POINT.
BLANCHE.
COLDWATER.
CARMARGO.
INTERSTATE 65 NEAR THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
158 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST.

* AT 157 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HICKMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SPOTTERS REPORTED ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
CAYCE AND FULGHAM.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EST...

* AT 255 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
UPSTREAM AND ITS NOW NEAR FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...
REGO...
BACON...
VALEENE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER
NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO
GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
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0145 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NNE RIPLEY 34.79N 87.11W
03/02/2012 LIMESTONE AL PUBLIC

WALL CLOUD REPORTED HALFWAY BETWEEN SNAKE AND RIPLEY
ROADS ON PARKER ROAD.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EST

* AT 253 PM EST...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE
EAST SIDE OF NOBLESVILLE. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NOBLESVILLE...OR 16 MILES
WEST OF ANDERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...
MUNCIE...
ELWOOD...
ALEXANDRIA...
LAPEL...
EDGEWOOD...
RIVER FOREST...
FRANKTON...
WOODLAWN HEIGHTS...
COUNTRY CLUB HEIGHTS...
ORESTES...
CHESTERFIELD...
DALEVILLE...
SUMMITVILLE...
YORKTOWN...
GASTON...
BALL STATE UNIVERSITY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
Wow, check out Louisville, KY radar link!
Link
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Quoting Patrap:
Storms on the Southern extent now firing and may go Severe within the Hour.


The area that could experience severe weather today is incredible... At least a slight risk from western New York all the way to Louisiana.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
156 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GRENADA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 156 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ELLIOTT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GORE SPRINGS AND MISTERTON BY 210 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
new pekin will prob make news tomorrow :(
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
155 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 151 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CARTWRIGHT...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLLAND GIN...ARDMORE...
CASH POINT...
BLANCHE...TAFT...
COLDWATER...
CARMARGO...BELLEVIEW...
SKINEM...HARMS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
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Storms on the Southern extent now firing and may go Severe within the Hour.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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