High risk of a major tornado outbreak today; 13 dead from Leap Day outbreak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on March 02, 2012

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A powerful spring storm system is gathering strength over Missouri this morning, and will track northeastward into Southern Michigan tonight. The atmosphere in the storm's warm sector, south of the the warm front and east of the cold front, is very unstable, thanks to a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface, and very cold, dry air aloft. A powerful jet stream with winds winds aloft blowing at 150 mph will interact with this unstable air, and the strong change of wind speed and direction with height (wind shear) associated with this jet will impart a strong twisting motion to updrafts that from in this afternoon's thunderstorms along the cold front. These are ideal conditions for tornado formation, and a large tornado outbreak with damaging long-track tornadoes is likely late this afternoon in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. While the conditions are not as dangerous as those we saw in 2011 during the May 21 - 25 Joplin, Missouri and late April Southeast U.S. tornado outbreaks, the potential exists for a punishing tornado assault with many more strong and violent tornadoes than occurred during the Leap Day outbreak. A number of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have already formed this morning along the storm's warm front, in Missouri, Indiana, and Illinois. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 1. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Kentucky, Northern Tennessee, and a small portion of Southern Indiana in their "High Risk" area for severe weather Friday afternoon. This is highest level of alert.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a 30% chance of tornadoes today within 25 miles of each point in the pink shaded area. Within the hatched area, there is a 10% or greater probability of strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes, or violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Leap Day tornado outbreak death toll hits 13
The cleanup continues today from the round of deadly tornadoes that pounded the Midwest on Leap Day, killing thirteen people. The outbreak began on February 28, when nine confirmed tornadoes touched down. A pair of EF-2 tornadoes hit Buffalo, Missouri and Harveyville, Kansas, with each twister causing one death. Also on that day, a weak EF-0 tornado moved over open fields near Gandy, Nebraska--the first February tornado in Nebraska since record keeping began in 1950. The outbreak continued on Leap Day, February 29, with 27 more confirmed tornadoes. Hardest hit was Harrisburg, Illinois, where a violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph killed six, injured approximately 100, and damaged 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path 26.5 miles long and 275 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. The only EF-3 tornado of the outbreak hit Asherville, Missouri that day, killing one person. The other deadly tornadoes of the outbreak included an EF-2 tornado that killed one person in Cassville, MO; an EF-2 that killed two in Monterey, Tennessee, and an EF-1 that killed one person in Smithville, Tennessee. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri on Leap Day, injuring 33 people. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions, and could add up to the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S. The 36 confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak make it the second largest February tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. The biggest February tornado outbreak occurred on February 5 - 6, 2008, when 92 tornadoes touched down.


Figure 3. Damage at the Branson, Missouri Hilton after the Leap Day tornado. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theatres--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the unserved, under served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!


Figure 4. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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Quoting Chapelhill:
Never a bad idea, but it appears we are really stable at the surface, so severe weather well be luckly hard to confirm in NC tonight.
Actually the storms entering NC in the very southwestern corner is pretty strong. Look like these systems missed the tall mountains and is still going strong as it heads for Charlotte metro area. Raleigh area about 3-5 hours from now.
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1603. Patrap
Many more storms are expected along this frontal Boundary.

Take care and thanks to everyone for doing a great job rolling info today.

Gnight.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
The public reported a funnel cloud a while ago...willing to bet it is a tornado now.

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Quoting snotly:
Heading strait for 75 / 575 Chastain road / Barrett Pkwy. Very populated area... used to work there by Kennesaw airport and the quarry. Exit 4 and 1 off of 575, Gotta own a gun to live in Kennesaw GA, not sure if it's going to defend you from 'naders though... hunker down North Ga. What college is up there? Is it Kennesaw University or something? I think it is off of 75 and Chastain road. Hope everyone is home by now, or at least KU is a commuter college.


KSU is not a commuter school, it does have dorms. Hope all are safe, have been unable to reach my friend who goes there, but I can't always reach her though. Hope she's safe.
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
Holton, Indiana is badly damaged... unreal scene they just showed on Weather Channel.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
AP video of one of the Indiana tornadoes. (The second half is way blurry, but the first is worth the watch.)



It's amazing how people drive right through the area and don't even realize it's there, even though it obviously crossed the road at some point.
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all past me, first severe storm in a while.
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My thoughts and prayers to all in the paths earlier today and tonight.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
I gots my weather radio sitting 5 inches from my computer. and its volume will be LOUD, loud enough to wake the entire house tonight!
Never a bad idea, but it appears we are really stable at the surface, so severe weather well be luckly hard to confirm in NC tonight.
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1594. pottery
Quoting RTSplayer:
If this is going to be our new climate for the next several decades, what the heck are we supposed to do?

Is everyone from Texas and Oklahoma all the way to Indiana and Georgia supposed to become a Hobbit and live underground in a cave house or something?

Even after you get past the loss of life and injuries, the financial damage every year is getting to be unbearable to our nation.

FEMA is bankrupt from the past several years.

Good point.....
Not much anyone can do about it.
It's going to create problems.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24871
Quoting SPLbeater:
I gots my weather radio sitting 5 inches from my computer. and its volume will be LOUD, loud enough to wake the entire house tonight!


Good idea. Also clear out stuff in your safe area (ours is an interior coat closet). Have pillows and blankets ready near that area. Also set your cell phone in there plus a flashlight. We have these great battery operated lanterns from Costco. And if it can fit, a solar/hand wind radio (love mine!).
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1592. Patrap




After speaking with Thomas from portlight via text, a Team of Volunteers is leaving out the Virginia area to points where they can affect some assistance.

Thomas has been in Harrisburg for a day organizing relief there, so his efforts are most commendable.

So we thank Him and those going to aid their fellow Americans.

People Helping People.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
1591. ncstorm
I am waiting on the weather channel to upload that west liberty video to their site..I still cant get over that face in the clouds
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 809 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 907 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 806 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 905 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
Quoting RTSplayer:
If this is going to be our new climate for the next several decades, what the heck are we supposed to do?

Is everyone from Texas and Oklahoma all the way to Indiana and Georgia supposed to become a Hobbit and live underground in a cave house or something?

Even after you get past the loss of life and injuries, the financial damage every year is getting to be unbearable to our nation.

FEMA is bankrupt from the past several years.
It's NOT the time for political opinion. Save that until AFTER the storms leave USA, please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems to have passed now, the siren right next to me never even came on!!!! Anyway, had a little hail, probably penny-sized at the largest, not much wind. Tornado is to my south, headed to Roswell. Prayers to all!!!
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
dime to nickel+ hail and 50+ mph winds at my house, siginificant structure damage S of me. Tornado to the south.
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If this is going to be our new climate for the next several decades, what the heck are we supposed to do?

Is everyone from Texas and Oklahoma all the way to Indiana and Georgia supposed to become a Hobbit and live underground in a cave house or something?

Even after you get past the loss of life and injuries, the financial damage every year is getting to be unbearable to our nation.

FEMA is bankrupt from the past several years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting violet312s:


Hmmm..there has to be a vibrating option for those things. You'd set it under your pillow. Other options things I've seen have bright lights that can wake you up. I swear I've seen both of those advertised.
Got flashing lights connected to my radio.

Meanwhile, Damage in Henryville is unreal. It's at least EF4, as the high school is flatten. I mean it's gone.
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Quoting jamesrainier:
TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

Locations in NW #Atlanta metro area in path of psbl #tornado: north Marietta, Sandy Plains, Roswell.
Welp Roswell going to have to take cover soon I'm right in line with the appendage.
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1581. Patrap

054
WFUS54 KMRX 030205
TORMRX
TNC001-093-129-145-030245-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0053.120303T0205Z-120303T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
905 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
OAK RIDGE...CLINTON...KNOXVILLE...OLIVER SPRINGS...DEARMOND...
KARNS...POWELL...NORRIS AND HALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.



LAT...LON 3597 8470 3625 8400 3600 8380 3583 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 249DEG 52KT 3594 8452
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Hard to believe we have nearly 1600 posts in a non-tropical thread.

Appreciate all the info folks have been posting.
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1579. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

Locations in NW #Atlanta metro area in path of psbl #tornado: north Marietta, Sandy Plains, Roswell.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
Look out Rome!
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I gots my weather radio sitting 5 inches from my computer. and its volume will be LOUD, loud enough to wake the entire house tonight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EST/830 PM CST/

* AT 759 PM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR HARMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED VERY STRONG ROTATION WITH THIS STORM.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GORDON...SAFFOLD...JAKIN...CEDAR SPRINGS...HOWARDS MILL...KILLARNEY
AND JONES CROSSROADS
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
1574. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 803 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 903 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 902 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 759 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
Peaked at 31 tornado warnings at one time today.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just glad I got the radio for Christmas. That radio warns my other family members. I'm deaf ,and thus, I HATES NIGHTTIME STORMS!!! I feel so helpless when I sleep and can't hear anything...


Hmmm..there has to be a vibrating option for those things. You'd set it under your pillow. Other options things I've seen have bright lights that can wake you up. I swear I've seen both of those advertised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snotly:
Heading strait for 75 / 575 Chastain road / Barrett Pkwy. Very populated area... used to work there by Kennesaw airport and the quarry. Exit 4 and 1 off of 575, Gotta own a gun to live in Kennesaw GA, not sure if it's going to defend you from 'naders though... hunker down North Ga. What college is up there? Is it Kennesaw University or something? I think it is off of 75 and Chastain road. Hope everyone is home by now, or at least KU is a commuter college.
Yep, your info is correct. Hope all are in shelter.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just glad I got the radio for Christmas. That radio warns my other family members. I'm deaf ,and thus, I HATES NIGHTTIME STORMS!!! I feel so helpless when I sleep and can't hear anything...

It's definitely a life saving device
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
AP video of one of the Indiana tornadoes. (The second half is way blurry, but the first is worth the watch.)

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
1566. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
1565. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
1564. snotly
Heading strait for 75 / 575 Chastain road / Barrett Pkwy. Very populated area... used to work there by Kennesaw airport and the quarry. Exit 4 and 1 off of 575, Gotta own a gun to live in Kennesaw GA, not sure if it's going to defend you from 'naders though... hunker down North Ga. What college is up there? Is it Kennesaw University or something? I think it is off of 75 and Chastain road. Hope everyone is home by now, or at least KU is a commuter college.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1563. Patrap

952
WFUS54 KMRX 030158
TORMRX
NCC039-043-030245-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0052.120303T0158Z-120303T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 856 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MURPHY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MURPHY...ANDREWS...MARBLE AND TOPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.



LAT...LON 3508 8418 3521 8420 3525 8400 3522 8395
3526 8384 3525 8374 3526 8371 3523 8368
3521 8371 3519 8371 3516 8373 3516 8365
3512 8361 3510 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 260DEG 41KT 3514 8412
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 858 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 856 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 856 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 856 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 854 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
TORNADO WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 852 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 751 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 749 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 749 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
1561. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Would you rather be woken up by your weather radio or sleeping while getting hit by a tornado.
Unfortunately many people choose the second option and this creates preventable injuries and fatalities
I'm just glad I got the radio for Christmas. That radio warns my other family members. I'm deaf ,and thus, I HATES NIGHTTIME STORMS!!! I feel so helpless when I sleep and can't hear anything...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

Fire/rescue reports damage to structures west of Dallas, GA.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
1558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I see it. I'm not saying it isn't strong, I'm just saying that it is not as strong as earlier.
Actully the Rome storm is really starting to worry me.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Want to take a look at it again? Its still very strong the couplet is right on the edge of that appendage.

I see it. I'm not saying it isn't strong, I'm just saying that it is not as strong as earlier.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
TOR:CON for Raleigh is 4 from 2 am-6 am... look like my weather radio will be on tonight :\


Ditto. Keep the volume on high too.
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TWC Breaking ‏ @TWCBreaking

#Knoxville: keep close eye on cell with a #tornado warning headed toward the W side of the metro in next 30-45 min
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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