Tornadoes rip Midwest, killing 9; heavy snow hits Upper Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on February 29, 2012

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Strong tornadoes plowed through the Midwest U.S. last night and this morning, killing at least nine people. Six people died in Harrisburg, Illinois when a tornado hit near 5:37 am CST this morning, damaging or destroying 200 buildings. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when a possible tornado ripped through a mobile home park. Thirteen others were injured in the mobile home park. Two others died in the Cassville and Puxico areas. A tornado also moved through downtown Branson, Missouri early this morning, causing heavy damage to the city's famous theaters, and injuring at least twelve people. A tornado plowed through the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm last night. The tornado destroyed 40 - 60% of the structures and injured ten, one critically. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged fifteen preliminary tornado reports yesterday and today.

The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Blizzard warnings are posted in South Dakota this morning, where snowfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches are common. According to NOAA's latest storm summary, five states have experienced snowfall amounts of ten inches or more--Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota, Michigan, and Nebraska. The highest snow amount as of 8 am CST was recorded at Tripoli, Wisconsin, where fourteen inches had fallen.


Figure 1. Radar image of the squall line that passed through Harrisburg, Illinois this morning, spawning a tornado that killed three people. The position of Harisburg is marked by a circle with a "+" symbol.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports yesterday.

More tornadoes likely today
The powerful late-winter storm system that spawned the deadly tornadoes will move eastwards, bringing snows of 5 - 10 inches to northern Wisconsin, northern Minnesota, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and northern New England. The storm's cold front is triggering severe thunderstorms over much of Kentucky this morning, and these thunderstorms are expected to grow in severity and spawn more tornadoes this afternoon, once the heat of the day destabilizes the atmosphere. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has posted tornado watches for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio this morning, and has placed much of Tennessee and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather today. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow today's severe weather.


Figure 3. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, one level below the highest level of alert, "High Risk."

Jeff Masters

Big Flakes (papajuan)
Winter in Northern Minnesota
Big Flakes

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Quoting presslord:


not only is this geographically inaccurate....in terms of weather forecasting, it's meaninglessly imprecise...


how can it be inaccurate if thats the region i speak of?

The heading for the SPC paragraph on friday that tells the severe potential for NC and SC says: ...CAROLINAS...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting hurricanejunky:
CNN BREAKING NEWS: Andrew Breitbart, a well-known conservative blogger, has died, his attorney confirmed today. He was 43.


Hell just got a little bit hotter
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Just read SPC outlook for friday, da section for the Carolinas.

Doesnt look bad...:D


not only is this geographically inaccurate....in terms of weather forecasting, it's meaninglessly imprecise...
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CNN BREAKING NEWS: Andrew Breitbart, a well-known conservative blogger, has died, his attorney confirmed today. He was 43.
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intersting article about the uncertainty pertaining to how and why we have negatively tilted troughs...
Mind you this is from the 70's when they where still trying to figure things out
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
This is the TOR:CON list for tomorrow from the Weather Channel. Some have high numbers

Friday March 2

AL north - 6
AR east, south - 3
GA extreme northwest - 3
IL south morning - 3
IN northeast - 3 to 4
IN south - 6
KY north-central - 6
KY south-central - 7
LA north - 4
MI southeast - 3 to 4
MS north half - 6
OH north - 4
OH south - 6
TN central - 7
TN east - 5
TN west - 4
TX east - 2 to 3
WV west - 3 to 4
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Quoting SPLbeater:
COunting the current two we have, the Southern indian has had 10 storm systems this season.

Irina is now at 65mph, had made 70mph yesterday
She's still hugging Madagascar, thats got to be hampering her inflow on her east side, that forecast may be a bit aggressive.  Don't know if she will get to CAT 2 status that close to land.   

My bad, just seen they have her only CAT 1.  Last night they had her making her west turn later and further south.  Having it as a CAT 2 racing towards Mozambique .
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Okay. I know exactly where that is. Near U of I. But yes, at this point the brunt of the severe wx will probably be to the east of you, but then again a slight risk can produce nasty weather too. We'll see. And be safe!
Good for storm chasing...:)  Which is my passion.  I just hope damage will be minimal and people take caution.  Yesterday should have waken most up around here as that the severe weather season is getting off to a fast and early start. Feel bad for the people south of me, they got slammed before they were even out of bed for breakfast .  
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COunting the current two we have, the Southern indian has had 10 storm systems this season.

Irina is now at 65mph, had made 70mph yesterday
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting WDEmobmet:


NEg Tilt is def more conductive for severe weather
Indeed. Dynamics increase bigtime with those neg tilted troughs. This next system is not far from being just that..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
With positive tilt flow is from SW and with neg it is SE right?
SE is better for severe.
doesnt Neg tilt drive itself across the mean wind directon
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
With positive tilt flow is from SW and with neg it is SE right?
SE is better for severe.
doesnt Neg tilt drive itself across the mean wind directon


Correct. a neg tilt indicates a low pressure has reached maturity, indicates strong differential advection (middle and upper level cool air advecting over low level warm air advection)and increases thermodynamic instability it also promotes vertical wind shear. In short...increase severity!


Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Good Morning Everyone, just read back on the posts and you guys are doing a great job in keeping the public informed. My prayers go out to those who experience those horrific tornados the past few days and unfortunately round two will be worse come tomorrow into Saturday. I see on some of the blogs that people say spring will be terrible this year, I really believe this is going into summer as well and wont end with just spring. April 2011 was horrible for those in NC and I only dread what this April will bring. If you dont have a NOAA weather radio, please invest and go buy one.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


You faired well yesterday but tomorrow you may not be so lucky:/ Most of the severe wx was either east or north of you yesterday.
This is my local weather statementDISCUSSION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO A PASSING SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY CAUSING WIND DAMAGE...
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

ACTIVE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER LAST EVENING NOW EAST/SOUTH OF THE
MID-STATE...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BUT
THIS RESULTING DRY WX WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN STRONG PLAINS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS TIGHT SFC LOW
ADVANCES TO MO VICINITY BY 12Z FRI. THIS LOW THEN RACES INTO
EASTERN CANADA THRU 12Z SAT...WHICH WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA FRI EVENING. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED THEN THE PREVIOUS. THIS SYSTEM NOT ONLY
PACKING STRONG LL WIND STRUCTURE/SHEAR BUT ALSO WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY/POSITIVE ENERGY IN PLACE WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES/
PASSES. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...BULK OF SEVERE WX LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS INCLUDES POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMEFRAME.

FRONTS MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU OVERNIGHT FRI AND THAT WILL BRING
DRYING CONDITIONS IN SAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. ON SUN...SHARP UPPER TROUGH PASSES BUT SPINS
POOL OF MODERATE MOISTURE DOWN WHICH MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

AFTER THAT POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SMOOTH SAILINGS INTO MID/LATE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGING AND SFC/LL HIGHS LARGELY DOMINATE. LATE WED NIGHT
NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE THU AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


You faired well yesterday but tomorrow you may not be so lucky:/ Most of the severe wx was either east or north of you yesterday.
I am very grateful too..I dont know if you read some of my earlier posts, but we are still making repairs and picking up around here from previous storms. It is hard because my parents are getting old and cannot do this kind of work. I am hoping for the best..:)
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Are you a Decatur homegrown boy, or Effingham?

Champaign-Urbana Area
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With positive tilt flow is from SW and with neg it is SE right?
SE is better for severe.
doesnt Neg tilt drive itself across the mean wind directon
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257



If you cant see this follow the link
Link
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting hydrus:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY
START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY
3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.


You faired well yesterday but tomorrow you may not be so lucky:/ Most of the severe wx was either east or north of you yesterday.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
The National Hurricane Centers cone of uncertainty will shrink slightly in the upcoming storm season, which starts June 1.

In 2012, for the 24-hour period, the radius will be 64 miles, down from 68 last year; for the 48-hour period, the radius will be 109 miles, down from 113 miles last year and for the 120 hour period it will be 271 miles, compared to 275 last year.

Link

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Quoting KeyWestSun:

I could have swore MississippiWx yesterday said that would be more conducive for severe components coming together. But I could be wrong.

We'll see...


NEg Tilt is def more conductive for severe weather
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
From SPC DAY 1 Convective Outlook:

...GULF CST STATES THIS AFTN...
WDLY SCTD TO PERHAPS SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED S OF STALLING
FRONT IN PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...GA...AND SC TODAY. WHILE A ROGUE
DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...GIVEN WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WARM LAYER AROUND
700 MB...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR
WIND PROBABILITIES.


What is this....JUNE??!!!
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
March looks to be coming in like a lion.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just read SPC outlook for friday, da section for the Carolinas.

Doesnt look bad...:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting AussieStorm:
Soaked towns begin to evacuate

Biggest rain in decades swamping NSW and ACT


Flooding rain from Uluru to NSW coast

Evening Aussie.
This might have something to do with the formula that says for every degree/C that the climate warms 4% more water vapour is suspended in the Atmoshere.
A lot of people will say its only an amomolie.
I think we might easily get a 100 weather anomolies this year at this rate and those twisters are really bad in the States.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I am in slight risk for friday, dat little spur sticking into the Carolinas...but i doubt i will see anything good :(

GeorgiaStormz, i agree with you. the southeast should have the severe weather!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting WDEmobmet:
SPC AC 010652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z.


Huntsville now says negative tilt. Wonder what effect that will have on 1730 outlook


Also, all the WFOs are talking about things that might happen to make the situation worse, and it seems a lot of them may happen. We may end up with a high risk tomorrow, but probably not till after the storms begin to form and strengthen somewhat.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Last night, Mississippi and Alabama had high minimum temperature breaks as high as 16 to 20 degrees above the previous record.

This is absolutely unnatural and ridiculous.

Have aliens invaded or something?


Agree around 90 from today thru Saturday here in Orlando with lows in the upper 60's. forget March this is what one would expect here in May.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Last night, Mississippi and Alabama had high minimum temperature breaks as high as 16 to 20 degrees above the previous record.

This is absolutely unnatural and ridiculous.

Have aliens invaded or something?
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21
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
731 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012

ALZ052-MSZ076-011415-
WASHINGTON AL-GREENE MS-
731 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...THROUGH 815 AM CST...

AT 727 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICHTON...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF MCLAIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMS CHAPEL... VINEGAR BEND... TIBBIE...
MCINTOSH... MALCOLM... FRUITDALE...
DEER PARK...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES
UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
BEFORE THIS STORM APPROACHES.

&&
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I Wonder if tomorrow will end up being our first high risk. I doubt it, but who knows.

Our first high risk last year was on 04/16/11


It's possible Kentucky & TN could be under a High Risk tomorrow.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
SPC AC 010652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY
START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY
3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS
. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...
INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR
AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD. SRN BRANCH OF STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS. ACCORDINGLY
ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE
POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN
QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012

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Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Hopefully TWC is not airing Storm Stories or Rescue Alaska tomorrow while a Tornado Outbreak is in progress! I have to give it to CNN for the wall to wall coverage yesterday.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
And i have a forecast high of 81 today.

Hello March.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
I Wonder if tomorrow will end up being our first high risk. I doubt it, but who knows.

Our first high risk last year was on 04/16/11
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Man saturday looks SOOOO boring...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
From NWS Birmingham:

MODELS NOW INDICATING A SECOND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT
AND TRACKING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE ALREADY
STRONG WIND PROFILES...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AND INCREASE
A TORNADO THREAT.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH MODE OF CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW STRONG
THE CAP BECOMES AND WHETHER WE CAN REALIZE SURFACE INSTABILITIES
/CAPES AROUND 2000J/KG/ DUE TO CLOUD COVER. A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING
WITH
IT ALL THREATS AS WELL...AS ANY LOW LEVEL BACKING COULD ENHANCE QLCS
SPIN-UPS. WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR SUBTLE FORECAST CHANGES TODAY
AND TOMORROW.




Also it is march! The severe weather needs to come south. The Ohio Valley should still be melting snow, and instead they have my severe weather!!!

From NWS Huntsville:

GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH --
WHICH SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD -- WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS SEVERAL
VORTS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS


....first mention of negative tilt ive heard.
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If this storm system slows down by about 6 hrs or so, I may be in for a wild ride Friday, as of now it looks to be just east of me.

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Quoting Ameister12:

What will Cincy see? Will we get a couple tornadoes?


(Click to enlarge)
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GOES-R will help boost lead time on Tornado warnings. Not due to launch till 2015 but perhaps NASA will finally get a boost in funding to speed things up, as this is obviously a critical, life saving, capability.
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Quoting Ameister12:

What will Cincy see? Will we get a couple tornadoes?

You live in the area with basically the best tornado parameters. I'd be on HIGH alert tomorrow if I were you...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They just close off the "See Text", "Slight", and "Moderate" risk areas.

Ok I just thought they meant something.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
New warnings predict flood emergency to worsen

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the flood situation in south-western New South Wales to worsen, with warnings stepped up on Thursday.

Around 75 per cent of the state is flooded or under threat, while the record rain has created similar emergencies across the ACT and northern Victoria.

Police in Goulburn have knocked on doors and asking people to leave their homes as heavy rain is leading to rises in the Wollondilly and Mulwaree rivers.

While about 200 homes in the city are subject to evacuation orders, hundreds more are subject to evacuation orders at Cooma in the state's south. (My Parents town)

The SES has helped to sandbag low-lying areas in both towns and say it is now a matter of waiting to see how much more rain falls.

The Warragamba Dam west of Sydney is expected to reach capacity and spill water for the first time in 14 years.

In the saturated Riverina, many smaller creeks have burst their banks and several towns have been inundated in parts.

Numerous roads remain closed and a moderate flood warning is in place for both the Tumut and Murrumbidgee rivers.

Several people were rescued in the biggest flooding to hit the southern town of Tumut in forty years after the Goobarragandra River peaked suddenly.

Some centres have received about 100 millimetres of rain this week, and for some in the region there is still plenty more to come.

Low-lying streets of Queanbeyan are on an evacuation alert as the Molonglo and Queanbeyan rivers continue to rise, but residents did not seem too fazed, having experienced far worse flooding just 14 months ago.

Gundagai is expected to reach minor flood level and will reach a moderate flood level on Friday morning, and Wagga Wagga is now expected to reach the minor flood level on Saturday night.



'We're not past the worst'

Across the border, communities in northern Victoria spent the day filling sandbags as flood waters continue to rise.

The SES has responded to 182 calls for help in north-east Victoria, including 75 around Yarrawonga.

SES regional officer Keith O'Brien says there has been widespread flash flooding across the region.

"We're not past the worst of the rain there and we probably won't see the end of that until close to midnight tonight," he said.

A prepare-to-evacuate order had been in place for Tallygaroopna all day but few people have left the town.



Dam wall at risk

In Canberra, the main concern is the Cotter Dam construction site, with the new dam wall expected to be overrun by floodwaters soon.

Managing director Mark Sullivan says equipment has been moved or tied down to stop it being swept away.

"This is quite a dramatic thing for a construction site and we are hoping that we have taken every precaution that we can," he said.

Lake Burley Griffin has been closed to the general public after stormwater forced the Queanbeyan treatment plant to go on "bypass".

Council spokesman Ricky Tozer says partially treated sewage has been released into the river.

"We're treating the effluent as it comes in, and then it's being discharged into the river. It's definitely not untreated," he said.


- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ouch is all I'm going to say right now...





I'd be worried if I lived in Kentucky, tornado parameters are off the chart.

What will Cincy see? Will we get a couple tornadoes?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.