La Niña drawing to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012

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La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SPLbeater:
Hey TAwx13, what kind of severity potential is expected for u?

Our NWS is kind of neglecting our severe weather potential...they're saying that an isolated damaging wind gust is possible. May be under exaggerating it just a little bit..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting SPLbeater:


maybe because the post says that evolution is real? or mentions a timeline that we arent even close to(3.8b)

you tell me lol.

ECMWF 5 day 500mb heights/SLP


Evolution, is partially true, some of it is real science, and, the other part is a religion, or anti-religion, if you want to be more specific of its cause.

There really isn't sound proof of knowing the precise age of many things on the earth or the age of the Universe. But we do know the earth is quite old based on the mathematical rates of certain things like the formation of the Hawaiian islands to the formation of the Grand Canyon. Of course there are many other numerous examples besides those, I just figured I'd name a couple of examples. Furthermore, we see stars that are so far away, they had to have been there many thousands upon thousands of years before we see them just for light to reach here on time.

Therefore to believe the earth is like 6000 years old, or whatever it is that some still believe, doesn't really make sense, because there is sound science against that argument, and not any proof for things being 6000 years old.



Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
if you believe in god you better start praying 2012 could be a bad one ninas going nuetral i am
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And so it begins?



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FURNAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
PHELPS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 323 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OXFORD...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOLDREGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLDREGE...ATLANTA...LOOMIS AND FUNK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Hey TAwx13, what kind of severity potential is expected for u?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Best part for you is, the biggest threat will be damaging winds in many line segments, meaning you have the chance for a bow echo.


YAY AGAIN!!

i red the NWS discussion for saturday, and it was goood. here is a part:

...POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF A MORE QLCS TYPE SIGNATURE. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH A MORE PROMINENT DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO LATER ON. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXCACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVALIABLE...

oh boy oh boy!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting hydrus:
Its a good thing for us that the Sun and the gas giants have cleaned up the place long before humans arrived.




Our atmosphere comes in handy for more than just fresh air.
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Tomorrow should be an exciting day weather wise for Cincy. The day will start off with severe weather as line segments (squalls and bows) move through the area (I'm under a 30% for severe storms). After the rain ends it should start to clear up and the high will reach nearly 70 degrees! I think winter is done with us.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Quoting reedzone:


You're not the only delusional one.. I believe in God to.





Ummmm....
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90S upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
69.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 69.4E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER BOTH SEMICIRCLES. A 280514Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS
AROUND A SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 281200Z PGTW
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADY AND
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS AND HAS BEEN GENERATING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH A DEVELOPING
POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. CURRENTLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS
BUT THE LLCC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WILL
CARRY IT INTO A REGION OF LIGHTER SHEAR. 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


YAY!!!BRING IT ON MR. TROUGH!!

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Best part for you is, the biggest threat will be damaging winds in many line segments, meaning you have the chance for a bow echo.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting JNCali:

...reading this made me sad for some reason..



Ah, reading things like that make me sad too, because I know those who believe them are too smart to actually believe it is the origin of the Universe and the meaning of life.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole state is under a Slight risk of Severe Weather tomorrow...

Looks impressive.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole state is under a Slight risk of Severe Weather tomorrow...



YAY!!!BRING IT ON MR. TROUGH!!

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good Afternoon. I also believe in God just beause there is no way to explain so many things in this world...
What happened to the big severe weather outbreak that was supposed to happen today? I know we're still expecting some but a few days ago this was looking like a really serious event...

Storms will initiate later this afternoon and strengthen overnight. I'd expect quite a bit of tornadoes looking at MesoAnalysis, and Forbes has given a TOR:CON of 5/10.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On February 28, 2012 there were 1287 potentially hazardous asteroids.


Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Mag. Size
2012 DX13 Feb 25 4.9 LD -- 70 m
2012 CS46 Feb 25 2.7 LD -- 12 m
2012 DS32 Mar 1 1.9 LD -- 24 m
2012 DN31 Mar 1 8 LD -- 80 m
2012 DR32 Mar 2 8.7 LD -- 51 m
2008 EJ85 Mar 6 9.1 LD -- 44 m
1999 RD32 Mar 14 57.9 LD -- 2.4 km
2011 YU62 Mar 16 73.4 LD -- 1.3 km
1996 SK Apr 18 67.2 LD -- 1.6 km
2007 HV4 Apr 19 4.8 LD -- 8 m
2011 WV134 Apr 28 38.6 LD -- 1.8 km


Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

Link
Its a good thing for us that the Sun and the gas giants have cleaned up the place long before humans arrived.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that the one off Madagascar??

well, its located near the Chagos Arch islands, which isnt near Madagascar. its not 92S:)
Quoting JNCali:


I think it's just that when I see a beautiful sunset or awesome looking clouds on a warm and breezy afternoon I am not grateful that I'm lucky.. but I am happy to thank the Creator who I know loves His creation and intentionally made it wonderful in the hopes that human kind would realize that nature did not happen by chance and in turn would acknowledge the existence of a higher power. I know this qualifies me as deluded in about 50% of the blog community.. That's okay with me..


I stand right beside you here! Science doesnt have an explanation for everything, the real explanation is in the book of Genesis. the very first sentence even...yet so many turn away from it.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good Afternoon. I also believe in God just beause there is no way to explain so many things in this world...
What happened to the big severe weather outbreak that was supposed to happen today? I know we're still expecting some but a few days ago this was looking like a really serious event...


i told the sky it wasnt alowwed to become severe until 5 PM EST, so its not.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
The whole state is under a Slight risk of Severe Weather tomorrow...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On February 28, 2012 there were 1287 potentially hazardous asteroids.


Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Mag. Size
2012 DX13 Feb 25 4.9 LD -- 70 m
2012 CS46 Feb 25 2.7 LD -- 12 m
2012 DS32 Mar 1 1.9 LD -- 24 m
2012 DN31 Mar 1 8 LD -- 80 m
2012 DR32 Mar 2 8.7 LD -- 51 m
2008 EJ85 Mar 6 9.1 LD -- 44 m
1999 RD32 Mar 14 57.9 LD -- 2.4 km
2011 YU62 Mar 16 73.4 LD -- 1.3 km
1996 SK Apr 18 67.2 LD -- 1.6 km
2007 HV4 Apr 19 4.8 LD -- 8 m
2011 WV134 Apr 28 38.6 LD -- 1.8 km


Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

Link
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Quoting reedzone:


You're not the only delusional one.. I believe in God to.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting reedzone:


You're not the only delusional one.. I believe in God to.

Good Afternoon. I also believe in God just beause there is no way to explain so many things in this world...
What happened to the big severe weather outbreak that was supposed to happen today? I know we're still expecting some but a few days ago this was looking like a really serious event...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Whether or not you believe in Creationism, evolution is very real.
Yes. So is punctual evolution caused by asteroids and other phenomenon. It is an established fact that the Earth has been slammed with numerous asteroid impacts, some of them powerful enough to wipe out almost all living things. Major extinction events

..Excerpt....In a landmark paper published in 1982, Jack Sepkoski and David M. Raup identified five mass extinctions. They were originally identified as outliers to a general trend of decreasing extinction rates during the Phanerozoic,[4] but as more stringent statistical tests have been applied to the accumulating data, the "Big Five" cannot be so clearly defined, but rather appear to represent the largest (or some of the largest) of a relatively smooth continuum of extinction events.[4]

Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event (End Cretaceous or K-T extinction): 65.5 Ma at the Cretaceous.Maastrichtian-Paleogene.Danian transition interval.[5] The K–T event is now called the Cretaceous–Paleogene (or K–Pg) extinction event by many researchers[who?]. About 17% of all families, 50% of all genera[6] and 75% of species became extinct.[7] In the seas it reduced the percentage of sessile animals to about 33%. The majority of non-avian dinosaurs became extinct during that time.[8] The boundary event was severe with a significant amount of variability in the rate of extinction between and among different clades. Mammals and birds emerged as dominant land vertebrates in the age of new life.
Triassic–Jurassic extinction event (End Triassic): 205 Ma at the Triassic-Jurassic transition. About 23% of all families and 48% of all genera (20% of marine families and 55% of marine genera) went extinct.[6] Most non-dinosaurian archosaurs, most therapsids, and most of the large amphibians were eliminated, leaving dinosaurs with little terrestrial competition. Non-dinosaurian archosaurs continued to dominate aquatic environments, while non-archosaurian diapsids continued to dominate marine environments. The Temnospondyl lineage of large amphibians also survived until the Cretaceous in Australia (e.g., Koolasuchus).
Permian–Triassic extinction event (End Permian): 251 Ma at the Permian-Triassic transition. Earth's largest extinction killed 57% of all families and 83% of all genera[6] (53% of marine families, 84% of marine genera, about 96% of all marine species and an estimated 70% of land species) including insects.[9] The evidence of plants is less clear, but new taxa became dominant after the extinction.[10] The "Great Dying" had enormous evolutionary significance: on land, it ended the primacy of mammal-like reptiles. The recovery of vertebrates took 30 million years,[11] but the vacant niches created the opportunity for archosaurs to become ascendant. In the seas, the percentage of animals that were sessile dropped from 67% to 50%. The whole late Permian was a difficult time for at least marine life, even before the "Great Dying".
Late Devonian extinction: 360–375 Ma near the Devonian-Carboniferous transition. At the end of the Frasnian Age in the later part(s) of the Devonian Period, a prolonged series of extinctions eliminated about 19% of all families, 50% of all genera[6] and 70% of all species.[citation needed] This extinction event lasted perhaps as long as 20 Ma, and there is evidence for a series of extinction pulses within this period.
Ordovician–Silurian extinction event (End Ordovician or O-S): 440–450 Ma at the Ordovician-Silurian transition. Two events occurred that killed off 27% of all families and 57% of all genera.[6] Together they are ranked by many scientists as the second largest of the five major extinctions in Earth's history in terms of percentage of genera that went extinct.

Despite the popularization of these five events, there is no fine line separating them from other extinction events; indeed, using different methods of calculating an extinction's impact can lead to other events featuring in the top five.[12]

The older the fossil record gets, the more difficult it is to read. This is because:

Older fossils are harder to find because they are usually buried at a considerable depth in the rock.
Dating older fossils is more difficult.
Productive fossil beds are researched more than unproductive ones, therefore leaving certain periods unresearched.
Prehistoric environmental disturbances can disturb the deposition process.
The preservation of fossils varies on land, but marine fossils tend to be better preserved than their sought after land-based counterparts.[13]
Lesser extinction events include::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::
Period Start Date Extinction Date Cause
Quaternary extinction event 50 ka to now Anthropogenic
Neogene 23.03 Middle Miocene disruption 14.5 Ma Nördlinger Ries bolide impact? Volcanoes in African Rift Valley
Eocene–Oligocene extinction event 33.9 Ma Volcanoes? Chesapeake Bay and Popigai crater bolide impacts?
Cretaceous 145.5 Aptian extinction 117 Ma Rahjamal Traps volcanism episode in Bengal?
End-Jurassic extinction 145.5 Ma
Jurassic 199.6 Toarcian turnover 183 Ma
Permian 299 Olson's Extinction 270 Ma
Carboniferous 359.2 Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse 318 Ma Climate change
End Silurian 416 Ma
Lau event 420 Ma
Mulde event 424 Ma Global drop in sea level?
Silurian 443.7 Ireviken event 428 Ma Deep-ocean anoxia?
Cambrian–Ordovician extinction event 488 Ma Glaciation? Depletion of oxygen in marine waters?
Dresbachian 502 Ma
Cambrian 542 End Botomian extinction event 517 Ma
Precambrian 4567.17 End-Ediacaran extinction 542 Ma Ocean anoxia?The close approach of 99942 Apophis (previously better known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) to the Earth and Moon on Friday, April 13, 2029
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Quoting JNCali:


I think it's just that when I see a beautiful sunset or awesome looking clouds on a warm and breezy afternoon I am not grateful that I'm lucky.. but I am happy to thank the Creator who I know loves His creation and intentionally made it wonderful in the hopes that human kind would realize that nature did not happen by chance and in turn would acknowledge the existence of a higher power. I know this qualifies me as deluded in about 50% of the blog community.. That's okay with me..


You're not the only delusional one.. I believe in God to.
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

I mirror that sentiment.
then we're all thankful.. like i tried to state, and regardless of whether statistics shroud such thankfulness into an imaginative darkness or not, this really has only to do with thanks. agreed?
hey, you know love is a higher power, and we all acknowledge it's existence..

(edit: that is the Last time i walk this fine line around here... sorry if it spirals from this point {see comment below})
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
A nice network of webcams in the snowy Northwoods can be viewed on this page (link).

Current webcam view from the Porcupine Lodge in White Pine, Michigan:



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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282025Z - 282300Z

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. DAMAGING
WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW OVER NW KS...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED ON THE N BY A WARM
FRONT DRAPED W-E ACROSS SRN NEB....AND TO THE W BY A COLD FRONT
CONSOLIDATING ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRYLINE WAS DEVELOPING DUE TO VERY
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...FROM WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. TO THE E...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WERE RISING THROUGH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AROUND
500-750 J/KG.

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER VORT CENTER OVER NERN
CO...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD WRN NEB/KS AND OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE. AS THIS OCCURS WITH TIME...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...AND AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. THE
MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO SEVERITY IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH
MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S F NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
INTO NRN KS LATER TODAY.

THAT SAID...AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD...FORCING WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...CAPABLE OF AT LEAST DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND MAY RESULT IN
SUPERCELLS...OR EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IF LINE SEGMENTS OCCUR. THE
MARGINAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH TIME OF DAY BECOMING LATE WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 02/28/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting BobWallace:


The Earth is warming. Our climate is changing. Humans are doing multiple things which are causing this change, burning fossil fuels is a major input.

This is settled science, there's no question left to ponder.

Getting off coal. Coal is a very expensive way to generate electricity, but many people don't realize that. It's cheap to burn coal for electricity, but the stuff that comes out of the smokestack causes a lot of expensive health problems and environmental damage. We pay three times for coal-electricity - at the meter, with our health insurance premiums and with our tax dollars.

Wind is a very inexpensive way to produce electricity. Geothermal is a moderate cost method. Solar is already cheaper than coal (if you count all the costs) and solar is rapidly getting cheaper. Tidal will likely become cheaper than coal. Hydro is cheaper than coal. We are making major progress with storage, wind/solar plus storage will soon be cheaper than coal.

Yes, coal provides jobs. Many of them dangerous, health-damaging jobs. Renewable energy will provide even more jobs. Safer jobs.

Even the places that might be hurt by dropping coal out of our energy mix can profit from renewables. We've recently discovered that West Virginia has massive geothermal potential. WV can sell clean electricity to the Eastern Seaboard rather than dirty coal. The Western coal states have great wind potential and we're now running transmission lines to those areas in order to move electricity to the West Coast.

ERCOT is doing quite well with lots of wind on its grid. Wind is making power cheaper. ERCOT is now adding lots of solar and starting on offshore wind to provide more clean, renewable power for their peak hour needs.

We are in the transition away from fossil fuels. It's a done deal. The question is whether we transition rapidly in order to minimize climate change, save money and improve our health or whether we transition slow in order for a few fossil fuel industry owners to further enrich themselves.



BRAVO! Very well said. Unfortunately, the denialists stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Through osmosis they've somehow acquired vastly more climate knowledge than all of the climate scientists combined.
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And the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota received some good snowfall on Sunday and Monday, highest totals were around 1 foot along the north shore.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Really? I would hope it would fill you with a profound sense of awe and wonder to know that your ancestral DNA managed to somehow run a dangerous, peril-ridden gauntlet millions of miles in length....


I think it's just that when I see a beautiful sunset or awesome looking clouds on a warm and breezy afternoon I am not grateful that I'm lucky.. but I am happy to thank the Creator who I know loves His creation and intentionally made it wonderful in the hopes that human kind would realize that nature did not happen by chance and in turn would acknowledge the existence of a higher power. I know this qualifies me as deluded in about 50% of the blog community.. That's okay with me..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
WASHINGTON (AP) - A new poll shows Americans' belief in global warming is on the rise, along with temperatures and surprising weather changes.
The survey by the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College says 62 percent of those asked last December think the Earth is getting warmer. That's an increase from 55 percent in the spring of that year. It's the highest percentage in two years.
Nearly half the people who say they believe in global warming base that on their own personal observations of the weather. Climate scientists say daily local weather isn't evidence of climate change. But they also say long-term climate change is so dramatic that people do recognize and experience it.
The survey of 887 people has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
LINK TO STORY
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:




Also, beginning to clear in S Arkansas:




On the link, you can see the shear crossing in different directions.
holy shear laden south!! i see gravity waves in nearly every directional orientation. fun
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
Quoting AussieStorm:
White House proposes to cut tsunami warning system


Headline designed to knot bloomers.

But if one reads past the headline...

"NOAA officials say the cuts aren't sacrificing public safety. For one, they say the buoy system will still operate despite chances it will take longer for NOAA crews to repair broken buoys at sea. And the outreach programs already have created computer risk maps, paid for thousands of coastal warning signs and funded materials for schools and civic groups, said Susan Buchanan, a NOAA spokeswoman."

Face it, if we want to cut spending and are not willing to make the super-wealthy pay their fair share then we don't get everything we want.

It's a choice, do we get extra tsunami buoys or do McCain, Mittens and their friends get to buy yet another houses and yachts?
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Whether or not you believe in Creationism, evolution is very real.


Both are real. Creation started, evolution continues.

Also, beginning to clear in S Arkansas:




On the link, you can see the shear crossing in different directions.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting AussieStorm:
White House proposes to cut tsunami warning system


"This is like a homeowner trying to economize by disconnecting the smoke detector," said Jeff Ruch, president of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, a nonprofit group that has raised the issue.
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Whether or not you believe in Creationism, evolution is very real.
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Quoting JNCali:

...reading this made me sad for some reason..
Really? I would hope it would fill you with a profound sense of awe and wonder to know that your ancestral DNA managed to somehow run a dangerous, peril-ridden gauntlet millions of miles in length. When you pause to consider how many billions of people have died before you were born, you'll realize just how fortunate your DNA--and, thus, you--truly are.

Since we're on the subject, here's another passage from that same book that I really like:

"If you imagine the 4,500-billion-odd years of Earth's history compressed into a normal earthly day, then life begins very early, about 4 A.M., with the rise of the first simple, single-celled organisms, but then advances no further for the next sixteen hours. Not until almost 8:30 in the evening, with the day five-sixths over, has Earth anything to show the universe but a restless skin of microbes. Then, finally, the first sea plants appear, followed twenty minutes later by the first jellyfish and the enigmatic Ediacaran fauna first seen by Reginald Sprigg in Australia. At 9:04 P.M. trilobites swim onto the scene, followed more or less immediately by the shapely creatures of the Burgess Shale. Just before 10 P.M. plants begin to pop up on the land. Soon after, with less than two hours left in the day, the first land creatures follow.

"Thanks to ten minutes or so of balmy weather, by 10:24 the Earth is covered in the great carboniferous forests whose residues give us all our coal, and the first winged insects are evident. Dinosaurs plod onto the scene just before 11 P.M. and hold sway for about three-quarters of an hour. At twenty-one minutes to midnight they vanish and the age of mammals begins. Humans emerge one minute and seventeen seconds before midnight. The whole of our recorded history, on this scale, would be no more than a few seconds, a single human lifetime barely an instant. Throughout this greatly speeded-up day continents slide about and bang together at a clip that seems positively reckless. Mountains rise and melt away, ocean basins come and go, ice sheets advance and withdraw. And throughout the whole, about three times every minute, somewhere on the planet there is a flash-bulb pop of light marking the impact of a Manson-sized meteor or one even larger. It's a wonder that anything at all can survive in such a pummeled and unsettled environment. In fact, not many things do for long."
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Oh and, the ECMWF has dropped large intensification from that area in central S Indian basin currently. gives it minimal tropical cyclone strength, nothing more.:D

Is that the one off Madagascar??
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
White House proposes to cut tsunami warning system
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Oh and, the ECMWF has dropped large intensification from that area in central S Indian basin currently. gives it minimal tropical cyclone strength, nothing more.:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting yqt1001:
I was reading about Tamerlane, the guy that tried to recreate the Mongol empire in the 1400s. He was close but died a bit too soon. Anyway, I read probably the most ironic thing ever.

"Timurlane's body was exhumed from his tomb in 1941 by the Soviet anthropologist Mikhail M. Gerasimov. It is alleged that Timur's tomb was inscribed with the words, "When I rise from the dead, the world shall tremble." It is also said that when Gerasimov exhumed the body, an additional inscription inside the casket was found reading, "Who ever opens my tomb, shall unleash an invader more terrible than I." In any case, two days after Gerasimov had begun the exhumation, Nazi Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, its invasion of the U.S.S.R. Timur was re-buried with full Islamic ritual in November 1942 just before the Soviet victory at the Battle of Stalingrad."



I have visited the Timurid-era monuments, temples and fortifications in Uzbekistan's Silk Road cities of Bukhara and Khiva, and they are truly stunning. At its peak, it was quite an impressive empire.

Unfortunately, my itinerary did not leave time to visit the Gur-e Amir (Tamerlane's Mausoleum, about 60km from Samarkand). However, Bukhara and Khiva left me in awe.
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Quoting JNCali:

...reading this made me sad for some reason..


maybe because the post says that evolution is real? or mentions a timeline that we arent even close to(3.8b)

you tell me lol.

ECMWF 5 day 500mb heights/SLP
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting yqt1001:
Quoting Minnemike:
when i ponder similar thoughts.. i feel blessed as though a miracle is my mere existence. it doesn't require thoughts of a creator to find wonder in this world, rather i feel more wonder borne out of the slim chance that what we all know to be, is.

So true. In fact, the only motive behind that post is to show just how lucky everyone really is to know the world they know. The world seems more amazing when you look at it like that. :P Everything in history is a luck occurrence caused by something in history that was also caused by a luck chance in history. The world is history, that not only repeats itself but also is defined by itself.

You can predict the future by looking back into history, you can predict your future by looking back also. In my opinion, the future is a mirror of the past.


i aint lucky to know the world, i am blessed. :)

so i am an exception, that didnt get here by luck =P
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting sunlinepr:
We knew about Greece but what about UK?

S & P declares Greece in default
Posted on February 28, 2012
February 28, 2012 – GREECE - Greece became the first euro-zone member officially to be rated in default, 13 years after the single European currency was adopted to strengthen the European Union.



British Chancellor says the ‘government has run out of money’- pain from austerity cuts are yet to bite

February 27, 2012 – UNITED KINGDOM - In a stark warning ahead of next month’s Budget, the Chancellor said there was little the Coalition could do to stimulate the economy. Mr. Osborne made it clear that due to the parlous state of the public finances the best hope for economic growth was to encourage businesses to flourish and hire more workers. “The British Government has run out of money because all the money was spent in the good years,” the Chancellor said. “....


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9107485/ George-Osborne-UK-has-run-out-of-money.html


How about we turn up the accuracy knob?

The S&P has declared Greece to be in "selective defaut" Consequentially they further lowered Greece's credit rating from rotten to a bit more rotten.

""This rating does not have any impact on the Greek banking system since any likely effect on liquidity has already been dealt with by the Bank of Greece," the finance ministry said in a statement."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17187068

That the British government has run out of money and can do nothing to stimulate growth is simply the opinion of a rather sour-faced fiscal conservative who will consider neither increasing taxes on the very rich nor borrowing money to keep Britain from slipping back into a recession.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9107485/ George-Osborne-UK-has-run-out-of-money.html

In the UK, do they have a Coffee Party?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Precisely. One of my favorite passages:

"Not only have you been lucky enough to be attached since time immemorial to a favored evolutionary line, but you have also been extremely- make that miraculously- fortunate in your personal ancestry. Consider the fact that for 3.8 billion years, a period of time older than the Earth's mountains and rivers and oceans, everyone of your forbears on both sides has been attractive enough to find a mate, healthy enough to reproduce, and sufficiently blessed by fate and circumstances to live long enough to do so. Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from it's life quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result - evetually, astoundingly, and all to briefly- in you.

Bill Bryson
A Short History of Nearly Everything

...reading this made me sad for some reason..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
I just looked at the weather forecast for tomorrow. Was nice to find that we have another decent snowstorm coming our way. Not as much as on Sunday, but 10-20 centimeters is still nice.
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301. DocNDswamp

I saw dat just now Doc, as I just came from Audubon Park with the Dog.

Scared me a tad..all dat Blue.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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