La Niña drawing to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012

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La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

See, that's an upside to GR2Analyst. You'll know the exact time a tornado warning expires, like this one. Of course, it will show until 4:45 PM CDT, but it has already been cancelled. :)

Yeah, I think your right. I don't see any rotation with that storm.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, according to GR2Analyst, the tornado warning has been cancelled. There is a chaser on the storm, and I see a mesocyclone, but no tornado.

See, that's an upside to GR2Analyst. You'll know the exact time a tornado warning expires, like this one. Of course, it will show until 4:45 PM CDT, but it has already been cancelled. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
Man, had I checked Verne Carlson's live stream just a minute or two previous, I would have seen the tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, according to GR2Analyst, the tornado warning has been cancelled. There is a chaser on the storm, and I see a mesocyclone, but no tornado.

The warning is still active.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
The good news is that even if this tornado is on the ground it is affecting rural, sparsely populated areas.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That wasn't a hook echo, just an interesting shape the storm took. No rotation.

and to the west of there is where the tornado is/was.

There was a little bit of rotation near Broken Bow not long ago. It's gone away now.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Police Make Arrest In 'The Senator' Fire
3,500-Year-Old Tree Burned Down In Jan.


Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/30562154/detail.html#ixzz 1niUVAavL

LONGWOOD, Fla. -- The Division of Forestry said Tuesday that an arrest has been made in relation to the fire of 'The Senator.'
Sara Barnes, 26, said she regularly went to the tree site to use drugs and lit a fire that night so she could see and said it got out of control. The 3,500-year-old bald cypress burned down last month in a fire.

Officials said they found images of the fire being started on Barnes laptop and on her cellphone.

Some people believe that the tree is still alive. They have spotted saplings at the base of the big tree.

Officials also said that the tree was cloned at one point, and they are searching to bring the clones back.

The park will remained closed until the investigation into the fire that destroyed the Senator is completed.




spouted in 1499 B.C.
stood the test of time
till jan 2012 death by mankind
1492 BC—April 3—Lunar Saros 37 begins.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado warning currently in effect for Logan County, Nebraska. Tornado is on the ground!!!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
415 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 410 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF STAPLETON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STAPLETON AND GANDY AROUND 425 PM CST.
TARBOZ LAKE AROUND 430 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 83 MILE
MARKER 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 10052 4156 10033 4133 10056 4138 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 205DEG 33KT 4140 10054

$$

Well, according to GR2Analyst, the tornado warning has been cancelled. There is a chaser on the storm, and I see a mesocyclone, but no tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
Quoting Minnemike:
a buddy just sent me and some chasers a link to a cool CIMSS product that indicates convective initiation..
this snap shot was just prior to the Tornado Warning that was issued before the Watch was posted. it was pretty much right on!
here is the link to the home page for the current products, as updated: Link
at this point, i'm almost more interested in the convective storms, than what piles up on the ground around me.. but seriously, no ice!!
;)


Thanks!
***

Seems no one has posted the latest update to SPC Day 1 convective outlook...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...

...CENTRAL CONUS...
FEW CHANGES ARE BEING MADE THIS FORECAST...AS THE OVERALL OUTLOOK
APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF TORNADO
POTENTIAL INTO ERN OK...WILL TRIM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE 5%
TORNADO PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SCENARIO AS LAID OUT
IN PRIOR FORECASTS REMAINS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING.
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN/SLOWLY DESTABILIZE...WITH
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
.

WITH TIME...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG
THE ADVANCING FRONT
-- PERHAPS AS FAR S AS OK. WITH TIME...EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS THE
CONVECTION CROSSES MO AND VICINITY THIS EVENING...
AND THEN INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS
SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADO RISK...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
WIND
-- GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION
ORGANIZES LINEARLY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 02/28/2012

I really did not lose this low-topped supercell link.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18991
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Tornado warning currently in effect for Logan County, Nebraska. Tornado is on the ground!!!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
415 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 410 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF STAPLETON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STAPLETON AND GANDY AROUND 425 PM CST.
TARBOZ LAKE AROUND 430 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 83 MILE
MARKER 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 10052 4156 10033 4133 10056 4138 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 205DEG 33KT 4140 10054

$$
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Where at? There is one heck of a hook echo that just crossed Borken Bow.

That wasn't a hook echo, just an interesting shape the storm took. No rotation.

and to the west of there is where the tornado is/was.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
First tornado of the day has been spotted in Nebraska.


Where at? There is one heck of a hook echo that just crossed Borken Bow. Thanks I see you just added it:)
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Minnemike:
a buddy just sent me and some chasers a link to a cool CIMSS product that indicates convective initiation..
this snap shot was just prior to the Tornado Warning that was issued before the Watch was posted. it was pretty much right on!
here is the link to the home page for the current products, as updated: Link
at this point, i'm almost more interested in the convective storms, than what piles up on the ground around me.. but seriously, no ice!!
;)
Love wisc.edu!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First tornado of the day has been spotted in Nebraska.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 410 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF STAPLETON.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STAPLETON AND GANDY AROUND 425 PM CST.
TARBOZ LAKE AROUND 430 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 83 MILE
MARKER 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Wow look at this hook echo just north of Broken Bow.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Statement as of 3:25 PM CST on February 28, 2012

... A slight risk of severe thunderstorms across western portions of
the mid state late tonight and all of middle Tennessee on Wednesday...
... Main threat will be damaging winds... but isolated tornadoes will
be possible...

As a strong cold front approaches the mid state tonight and moves
through the mid state on Wednesday... thunderstorms will develop.
Some of these thunderstorms may be severe... with the main threat
being damaging winds... but there will be also the potential for
isolated tornadoes. There could be several periods of thunderstorms...
with the best potential late tonight near and across the Tennessee
River valley... and the late morning through afternoon hours across
the remainder of middle Tennessee. There could even be some severe
thunderstorms during the Wednesday evening hours across the
Cumberland Plateau region.

This is a time to be sure that your severe weather safety plans are
in place for your residence and business. If you have not already done
so... it would be a good time to Purchase a NOAA Weather Radio and
have it tuned to the transmitter that serves your particular location
in middle Tennessee. Information about NOAA Weather Radio transmitter
and the location that they serve in middle Tennessee can be found
on the Nashville National Weather Service web Page at
www.Weather.Gov/Nashville under weather safety.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


I hope you saw the SPC winter MCDs. Linked at 290, in case you did not. All three include Minnesota - two for heavy snow, and one mentions freezing rain. Good luck up there.

I rarely flag and release any more, but some days that's just the ticket.
a buddy just sent me and some chasers a link to a cool CIMSS product that indicates convective initiation..
this snap shot was just prior to the Tornado Warning that was issued before the Watch was posted. it was pretty much right on!
here is the link to the home page for the current products, as updated: Link
at this point, i'm almost more interested in the convective storms, than what piles up on the ground around me.. but seriously, no ice!!
;)
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
Quoting Articuno:

you posted that twice...


Just in case someone missed from the last page.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Post 406 is for people who missed it from the last page. I had a feeling that this was arson.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Police Make Arrest In 'The Senator' Fire
3,500-Year-Old Tree Burned Down In Jan.


Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/30562154/detail.html#ixzz 1niUVAavL

LONGWOOD, Fla. -- The Division of Forestry said Tuesday that an arrest has been made in relation to the fire of 'The Senator.'
Sara Barnes, 26, said she regularly went to the tree site to use drugs and lit a fire that night so she could see and said it got out of control. The 3,500-year-old bald cypress burned down last month in a fire.

Officials said they found images of the fire being started on Barnes laptop and on her cellphone.

Some people believe that the tree is still alive. They have spotted saplings at the base of the big tree.

Officials also said that the tree was cloned at one point, and they are searching to bring the clones back.

The park will remained closed until the investigation into the fire that destroyed the Senator is completed.




you posted that twice...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Police Make Arrest In 'The Senator' Fire
3,500-Year-Old Tree Burned Down In Jan.


Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/30562154/detail.html#ixzz 1niUVAavL

LONGWOOD, Fla. -- The Division of Forestry said Tuesday that an arrest has been made in relation to the fire of 'The Senator.'
Sara Barnes, 26, said she regularly went to the tree site to use drugs and lit a fire that night so she could see and said it got out of control. The 3,500-year-old bald cypress burned down last month in a fire.

Officials said they found images of the fire being started on Barnes laptop and on her cellphone.

Some people believe that the tree is still alive. They have spotted saplings at the base of the big tree.

Officials also said that the tree was cloned at one point, and they are searching to bring the clones back.

The park will remained closed until the investigation into the fire that destroyed the Senator is completed.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Looks like a little bit of rotation south of Broken Bow.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
Quoting Minnemike:
i will never again participate in anything remotely contextual to the discussion underway, on this blog. i promise!!!
i suggest the same for everyone else.
there is more than enough weather to analyze.


I hope you saw the SPC winter MCDs. Linked at 290, in case you did not. All three include Minnesota - two for heavy snow, and one mentions freezing rain. Good luck up there.

I rarely flag and release any more, but some days that's just the ticket.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18991
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING
AHEAD OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW...AND NEAR THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AFTER
DARK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
401. Ameister12
10:03 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Ugh... Religious discussions? Really? Boo!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
400. StormTracker2K
10:03 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Police Make Arrest In 'The Senator' Fire
3,500-Year-Old Tree Burned Down In Jan
.

Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/30562154/detail.html#ixzz 1niUVAavL


LONGWOOD, Fla. -- The Division of Forestry said Tuesday that an arrest has been made in relation to the fire of 'The Senator.'

Sara Barnes, 26, said she regularly went to the tree site to use drugs and lit a fire that night so she could see and said it got out of control.

The 3,500-year-old bald cypress burned down last month in a fire.

Officials said they found images of the fire being started on Barnes laptop and on her cellphone.

Some people believe that the tree is still alive. They have spotted saplings at the base of the big tree.

Officials also said that the tree was cloned at one point, and they are searching to bring the clones back.

The park will remained closed until the investigation into the fire that destroyed the Senator is completed.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
398. Ameister12
9:59 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
WW 39
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
397. Jedkins01
9:56 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


the stars dont have to be there for a long time. the Lord put each one where it is. i would belive the bible before i would scienctists any day :D


Well, its easy for say "God made it that way" and you know, if we had something in the Bible saying God placed the stars and the light from them there at the same time, or that God made all the plants and animals and humans all around 6000 years ago, than yeah. But it didn't, see the Bible isn't a scientific document, it only says God made everything. In fact you could even argue at least to some degree toward some form of evolution in that the Bible says that God formed life from the ground instead of out of thin air, like some preachers like to portray. I am a firm follower of Jesus, and Jesus challenged religious leaders. Just because some religious leaders have told you everything is 6000 years old and its in the Bible doesn't mean it is. I firmly believe the Bible doesn't say much about science because God left us to explore the mystery of what He made and the Bible is more about the relationship between God, and people, and ethics. Granted I know many don't like reading something like this but I'm not worried about that, this is just something between you and me, if you want to continue this we can in private discussion because I realize that many will hate me here for bringing God into the discussion of science, it shouldn't be that way, but it is, so I try to keep peace.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
396. MAweatherboy1
9:55 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Tornado watch now up.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
395. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:55 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

TORNADO WATCH 39 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC027-029-089-123-141-143-147-157-163-183-201-290 300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0039.120228T2155Z-120229T0300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLAY CLOUD JEWELL
MITCHELL OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS
SMITH WASHINGTON


NEC001-011-019-023-035-037-041-047-053-059-061-065 -067-073-077-
079-081-083-093-095-099-109-121-125-129-137-141-14 3-151-155-159-
163-169-175-181-185-290300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0039.120228T2155Z-120229T0300Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BOONE BUFFALO
BUTLER CLAY COLFAX
CUSTER DAWSON DODGE
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS
GAGE GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HOWARD JEFFERSON KEARNEY
LANCASTER MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PHELPS PLATTE
POLK SALINE SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER
VALLEY WEBSTER YORK


ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...LBF...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
394. MAweatherboy1
9:54 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Storms will initiate later this afternoon and strengthen overnight. I'd expect quite a bit of tornadoes looking at MesoAnalysis, and Forbes has given a TOR:CON of 5/10.

How come the SPC isn't giving a higher chance?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
393. Minnemike
9:54 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
i will never again participate in anything remotely contextual to the discussion underway, on this blog. i promise!!!
i suggest the same for everyone else.
there is more than enough weather to analyze.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
392. SPLbeater
9:54 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
OOGALEY BOOGALEY!!!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
391. SPLbeater
9:53 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Whats better in the views of the protestant church: atheism or satanism?


neither =P
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
390. Barefootontherocks
9:52 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And so it begins?




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282025Z - 282300Z

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. DAMAGING
WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW OVER NW KS...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED ON THE N BY A WARM
FRONT DRAPED W-E ACROSS SRN NEB....AND TO THE W BY A COLD FRONT
CONSOLIDATING ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRYLINE WAS DEVELOPING DUE TO VERY
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...FROM WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. TO THE E...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WERE RISING THROUGH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AROUND
500-750 J/KG.

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER VORT CENTER OVER NERN
CO...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD WRN NEB/KS AND OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE. AS THIS OCCURS WITH TIME...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...AND AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. THE
MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO SEVERITY IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH
MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S F NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
INTO NRN KS LATER TODAY.

THAT SAID...AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD...FORCING WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...CAPABLE OF AT LEAST DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND MAY RESULT IN
SUPERCELLS...OR EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IF LINE SEGMENTS OCCUR. THE
MARGINAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH TIME OF DAY BECOMING LATE WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT
.

..JEWELL.. 02/28/2012

There are also three MCDs currently in effect for winter weather including freezing rain in ND, SD MN and Wisconsin.

Did anyone save the link (edit) I left here a couple days ago about low-topped supercells?
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18991
389. WxGeekVA
9:52 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


post #379 tells you.

please tell me you arent a satan worshiper...das not good...


I'm not a devil worshiper... lol just putting that graph and personal interpretation out there for laughs and whatnot....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
388. yqt1001
9:46 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


post #379 tells you.

please tell me you arent a satan worshiper...das not good...


Whats better in the views of the protestant church: atheism or satanism?
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
387. Ameister12
9:44 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Storms are forming and they happen to be more singular and spread out type storms. We should expect hail, damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon and evening as these storms intensify.

(Click to enlarge)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
386. SPLbeater
9:43 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Judging upon who killed more people you would be incorrect....


post #379 tells you.

please tell me you arent a satan worshiper...das not good...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
385. Ameister12
9:40 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

GR2Analyst is the best, but it is also the most expensive. If you have $250, then definitely buy it.

I do happen to have the money :). Thanks.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
383. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:38 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
if you believe in god you better start praying 2012 could be a bad one ninas going nuetral i am
it will be neutral for april may june moving into nino by early july and full nino by mid aug onward for the winter of 2012/20??
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
382. WxGeekVA
9:38 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


you havent a clue. thats a deceptive graph right there...makes you think that Satan is better. after judgment its obvious who is the leader, the righteous, the father. :D


Judging upon who killed more people you would be incorrect....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
381. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:38 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:

Yep. There are definitely storms starting to form.

Oh and quick question. Which GRLevelX product do you use, or recommend? I'm thinking about purchasing one of the products.

GR2Analyst is the best, but it is also the most expensive. If you have $250, then definitely buy it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564
380. Ameister12
9:37 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And so it begins?



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FURNAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
PHELPS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 323 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OXFORD...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOLDREGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLDREGE...ATLANTA...LOOMIS AND FUNK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Yep. There are definitely storms starting to form.

Oh and quick question. Which GRLevelX product do you use, or recommend? I'm thinking about purchasing one of the products.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5077
378. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:36 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Hey TAwx13, what kind of severity potential is expected for u?

Our NWS is kind of neglecting our severe weather potential...they're saying that an isolated damaging wind gust is possible. May be under exaggerating it just a little bit..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32564

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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