La Niña drawing to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012

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La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST...

* AT 746 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TOUSEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
SHORT CREEK...
DUFF AND CONCORD...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Little bit of hook actin with this cell. Is anybody with GR2Anal on?


Beaver dam look out...
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I would watch these storms as tornado warnings could start coming out on these as well as there is some pretty good rotation in these storms.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
This is a very strong storm, I had 59 degrees F @ 6:00am CDT this morning before I left work.  Warmest temperature of the year for us and it occurred before the sun rose.  I pretty sure there were record high low's set this morning all across Illinois.  

It is starting to concern me the conditions that are going to present in the Spring across the Midwest and points south.  Everyone remembers the ridiculous tornado season that occurred in last year's conditions. This was the Gulf then...





Now this season we have vamped moisture levels in the Gulf versus last season on an order of about 1 degree C higher in all areas.   Ample energy for any systems that get to tap into this Spring.  


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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Newburgh,IN looks to be destroyed. WOW!

TORNADO REPORTED BY STATE TROOPER NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF NEWBURGH. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE CITY PROPER. RESCUE TEAMS ARE RESPONDING
OMG prayers for those people suffering this morning, real bad storm this one is, tornados in how many states?..gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
740 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
CENTRAL GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST...

* AT 736 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAIZETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
LEITCHFIELD...
WINDY HILL AND HORSE BRANCH...
ARNOLD AND WHITE RUN...
NEAFUS AND DOGWALK...
TILFORD AND DO STOP...
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Quoting hydrus:
Ya beat me. I was just going to post that graphic. I live right in the middle of the moderate risk. I hope for the best. We are still cleaning up here from past storms.


Maybe you should read post 708. I posted it just right after the map was updated. Stay safe man!
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Quoting jamesrainier:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
734 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST...

* AT 732 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SMALLHOUS...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
HARTFORD...
MCHENRY AND SIMMONS...
BEAVER DAM AND SANDEFUR CROSSING...
HORSE BRANCH AND ROSINE...
OLATON...
gee this surging cold front is a dangerous one, tornado's since early this morning as it marches across the country
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
734 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST...

* AT 732 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SMALLHOUS...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
HARTFORD...
MCHENRY AND SIMMONS...
BEAVER DAM AND SANDEFUR CROSSING...
HORSE BRANCH AND ROSINE...
OLATON...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New Day 1 Convective Outlook:





Ouch!!!!. If only it was a little more south!!. Unfortunatly i will be away and unable to track these storms.
Ya beat me. I was just going to post that graphic. I live right in the middle of the moderate risk. I hope for the best. We are still cleaning up here from past storms.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
It's rainy and cloudy here this morning.that should also keep the temps dow into the upper 40's for today.
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Little bit of hook actin with this cell. Is anybody with GR2Anal on?
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SW of Cincinnati

824 am EST Wed Feb 29 2012

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 830 am EST for northern
Trimble and eastern Jefferson counties...

At 822 am EST...Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate a
severe thunderstorm with strong rotation. This dangerous storm was
located near monitor...moving east at 80 mph.

* This dangerous storm will also impact...

mainly rural areas of eastern Jefferson and northern Trimble
counties.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
720 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 745 AM CST.

* AT 717 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAHAM...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
LIVERMORE...SACRAMENTO...BREMEN...SOUTH CARROLLTON AND ISLAND.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
820 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BULLITT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 845 AM EST...

* AT 818 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCK HAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...
CUPIO AND STITES...
BARRALLTON...
GAP IN KNOB AND FOX CHASE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER NOW!
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New Day 1 Convective Outlook:





Ouch!!!!. If only it was a little more south!!. Unfortunatly i will be away and unable to track these storms.
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Tornado spotted in southern Indiana
Updated: Wednesday, 29 Feb 2012, 8:11 AM EST
Published : Wednesday, 29 Feb 2012, 7:49 AM EST

NEWBURGH, Ind. (WISH) - Emergency crews were seeing homes with severe damage on the far southern edge of Indiana Wednesday morning, after a likely tornado touched down near Newburgh.

Warrick County Sheriff’s Department officials say the tornado hit in the town east of Evansville around 6:10 a.m. local time, which is 7:10 a.m. in the Indianapolis metro area. Evansville is on central time. Initial reports indicate no one was seriously injured.

Newburgh Fire Department officials said they were battling fires throughout the area
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Newburgh,IN looks to be destroyed. WOW!

TORNADO REPORTED BY STATE TROOPER NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF NEWBURGH. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE CITY PROPER. RESCUE TEAMS ARE RESPONDING
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OMG! Hydrus watchout buddy as it looks as if you are in for one hell of a day.


MORNING SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE SUGGEST THAT ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT REJUVENATION OF EXISTING SQLN STORMS IN
KY AND NRN TN...AND POSSIBLY NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS.

SATELLITE DERIVED /GPS PW DATA...AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS...
SUGGEST THAT DEEPLY MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE TN VLY. COUPLED WITH STRONG TO INTENSE LOW TO MID LVL WIND
FIELD...AND THE GRAZING INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM VORT LOBE THIS
AFTN...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF
SUPERCELLS FROM NRN MS ENEWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME LONG-LIVED AND
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/...AND
SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR MCS LATER THIS
AFTN AND TNGT. PART OF THE THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E TO
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT IN SRN VA/NC...POSING AN OVERNIGHT SVR RISK
/INCLUDING ISOLD TORNADOES/ IN THAT REGION. THE OTHER PART OF THE
MCS MAY TEND TO BACK-BUILD AND/OR DEVELOP MORE SWD INTO NRN
AL/GA...WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
EARLY THU.

FINALLY...N OF THE OH VLY SQLN...APPROACH OF UPSTREAM VORT LOBE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS...POSSIBLY SVR...THIS
AFTN/EARLY TNGT IN ERN IND AND OH/WRN PA.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 02/29/2012
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GFS is wanting to stir up lots of tropical energy near FL in the long range. very interesting.

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Many deaths from last night night tornadoes. Looks as if Tornado Season 2012 is going off with a BANG!

6:05 a.m. CST: A tornado was reported by a state trooper near Newburgh, Ind. Widespread damage occurred throughout the city proper. Rescue teams are responding.

5:37 a.m. CST: A tornado confirmed by a trained spotter in Harrisburg, Ill., caused extensive damage in the southeastern part of town. There are reports about a few deaths, but this has not yet been confirmed. Search and rescue is still in progress. Nearby, power flashes were observed with a possible tornado on the ground in Metropolis, Ill.

5:32 a.m. CST: The Associated Press is reporting that the person who died in Buffalo, Mo., was a resident of a mobile home park. A local sheriff also says that 13 others were injured when the tornado passed through the same trailer park. In addition, the AP is reporting at least a dozen injuries in Branson, where rescuers were combing through homes trying to help people who are trapped.

5:03 a.m. CST: A possible tornado touched down north and west of Mounds, Ill. A cross arm ripped off of a railroad sign and was launched through the vehicle of a trained spotter.

4:50 a.m. CST: A possible tornado destroyed a barn and chicken farm, damaged a house, and caused damaged numerous trees and power lines.

4:10 a.m. CST: Structural damage was reported in Oak Ridge, Mo., from a possible tornado, which was confirmed on the ground by spotters near Grand Tower, Ill., a short time later.

3:35 a.m. CST: Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback has declared a state of emergency in the state in the wake of tornado damage.

2:37 a.m. CST: There are additional reports of major structural damage and building collapses in Branson, Mo. All firefighters in the town have been told to report as rescues are ongoing.

1:35 a.m. CST: A confirmed tornado has damaged multiple structures in the town of Branson, Mo., including a hotel, restaurant and gas station.

1:25 a.m. CST: KOLR-TV in Springfield, Mo., is reporting that at least one person is dead in the wake of a tornado in Buffalo, Mo.

12:35 a.m. CST: Laclede County, Mo., Emergency Management reported debris falling from the sky in Lebanon, possibly from a nearby tornado.

11:48 p.m. CST: AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Meteorologist Cory Mottice relayed a report of blown out windows and a barn destroyed by a possible tornado in Arcola, Mo.

11:30 p.m. CST: The first photo of potential tornado damage in Harveyville, Kan
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
GFS still showing that tropical entity at the end of the run....



Is over my head here,but being long range,it will not be anything to be of a concern in terms of developing.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
658 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 730 AM CST.

* AT 654 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL CITY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
CENTRAL CITY.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Harveyville,KS devasted by last nights tornado.






FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) - As the sun comes up Wednesday, emergency management crews will be out doing another search making sure everyone is accounted for after tornado struck Harveyville, KS.

The small town near Topeka took a serious hit from the storms as 40 to 60 percent of structures were destroyed.

Ten people were injured, two with life threatening injuries, as it believed 100 percent of the people are accounted for.

Of those inured, including a man pulled from a collapsed home, were flown by medical helicopter to Stormont-Vail Hospital in Topeka.


Most residents are believed to be staying with neighbors, friends and relatives. The town has a population of about 275.

The town's only church was completely destroyed after the rare February storm struck at 9:03 p.m. Tuesday.

First responders went door to door to confirm no one was missing or killed.


Dozens of law enforcement officials are on the scene. Harveyville is about 40 miles south of Topeka in Wabaunsee County.


Oh god. That's terrible. Several destructive tornadoes obviously occurred last night.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Harveyville,KS. This looks like EF-3 damage atleast!


Likely.
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Harveyville,KS. This looks like EF-3 damage atleast! I'm seeing photos on Accuweather of trees debarked!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've been talking to some of my friends this morning and looking at radar pictures from last night...I think we had at least two EF3 . The town of Hardly, Kansas had houses moved completely off their foundations, and in Branson, MO, another strong tornado destroyed homes and other buildings.

Another active day today, with an increased tornado threat as opposed to yesterday.

Harveyville, Kansas and Harrisburg, Illinois got hit very hard too. Several homes were reported destroyed and numerous injuries were reported in Harveyville. The south east portion of Harrisburg experienced major damage.
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Harveyville,KS devasted by last nights tornado.






FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) - As the sun comes up Wednesday, emergency management crews will be out doing another search making sure everyone is accounted for after tornado struck Harveyville, KS.

The small town near Topeka took a serious hit from the storms as 40 to 60 percent of structures were destroyed.

Ten people were injured, two with life threatening injuries, as it believed 100 percent of the people are accounted for.

Of those inured, including a man pulled from a collapsed home, were flown by medical helicopter to Stormont-Vail Hospital in Topeka.


Most residents are believed to be staying with neighbors, friends and relatives. The town has a population of about 275.

The town's only church was completely destroyed after the rare February storm struck at 9:03 p.m. Tuesday.

First responders went door to door to confirm no one was missing or killed.


Dozens of law enforcement officials are on the scene. Harveyville is about 40 miles south of Topeka in Wabaunsee County.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a tornado on the ground NW of Bowling Green. Take shelter if you are in the path of this storm!


There is.

Transformers are blowing with a tornado reported on the ground.
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The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Crawford County in south central Indiana...
northern Harrison County in south central Indiana...
northeastern Perry County in south central Indiana...

* until 815 am EST/715 am CST/...

* at 640 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located near Uniontown... moving east at 70 mph.

* This tornadic storm will also impact...
Corydon...
Riddle and Sulphur...
Carefree and Pilot Knob...
Moberly and Frenchtown...
New Salisbury and Ramsey...
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Could be a tornado on the ground NW of Bowling Green. Take shelter if you are in the path of this storm!

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Thanks PD. Happy Leap Day to you too.
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http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/ articles/wed-storm-reports_2012-02-29
Cape Girardeau, MO: Widespread damage reported; Possible tornado; One man hurt after home collapsed on him

Pacudah, KY: National Weather Service reported seeing a tornado across the river from Paducah. Power flashes were also seen

Tourist hot spot Branson, Missouri has also reported damage from the early-morning storms. There were reports of a tornado and damage in the downtown section of the storm.

"The world-famous Highway 76 strip was almost like a war zone," reported Monte Schisler, News Director at KRZK Radio in Branson, Missouri. "It was nothing like what happened in Joplin, Missouri last year, but there was a lot of damage."

Schisler says the famous Variety Theatre, home to many of Branson's well-known shows, was damaged. He also reported roofs off of businesses and homes.

"I came out of my neighborhood to go to work and within minutes we could not get back into our neighborhood due to downed trees and power lines. A neighbor's home had the roof ripped off."

The one fatality occurred when a possible tornado hit a mobile home park in southwest Missouri, south of Buffalo, Lt. Dana Eagan of the Dallas County Sheriff's Office told the AP. Another 13 people at the trailer park were injured, she said. Crews would begin searching the area once the sun came up, Eagan said.

The storm also knocked out power to all of Buffalo, Eagan said.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 700 AM CST.

* AT 630 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...GREENVILLE...CENTRAL CITY...EARLINGTON...MORTONS
GAP...GRAHAM...POWDERLY...HANSON...SACRAMENTO...BR EMEN...ISLAND...
SOUTH CARROLLTON AND DRAKESBORO.

THIS INCLUDES THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY BETWEEN EXITS 37 AND 49.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST KENTUCKY PARKWAY BETWEEN EXITS 53 AND 58.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 645 AM CST.

* AT 625 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR GRANDVIEW...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKPORT. A TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN SPENCER COUNTY.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
629 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 645 AM CST...

* AT 626 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS REPORTED NORTH OF ROCKPORT. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WAITMAN...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
HAWESVILLE...
TELL CITY...
PETRI AND FENN HAVEN...
DODD AND SKILLMAN...
GERALD AND DERBY...
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In fact, it has already begun.

1205 NEWBURGH WARRICK IN 3795 8740 TORNADO REPORTED BY STATE TROOPER NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF NEWBURGH. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE CITY PROPER. RESCUE TEAMS ARE RESPONDING. (PAH)
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I've been talking to some of my friends this morning and looking at radar pictures from last night...I think we had at least two EF3 . The town of Hardly, Kansas had houses moved completely off their foundations, and in Branson, MO, another strong tornado destroyed homes and other buildings.

Another active day today, with an increased tornado threat as opposed to yesterday.
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The Seneca Guns were active Yesterday !
Most of SE North Carolina was shaking!
I felt them in my house!
Very strange stuff.
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688. MahFL
GFS & Tropical = nuts !
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GFS still showing that tropical entity at the end of the run....

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wu is advertising audio books with some company why bother you can get more than you can ever listen to at usc's berkeley library for nothing.
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HAPPY LEAP DAY!





Somebody had to say it.
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What's going on with the models regarding this weekends weather in the Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley, one poster said the early models matched the spring tornado outbreak of 2008, well what's going on now?
at the 72 hour runs?
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Morning everyone. Currently 73 here [WARM!] and partly cloudy.

To JNCali and other WUBloggers in the path of today's severe wx, stay safe!

I'll check in later as time permits, but gotta get on the road now if I'm going to get any work done today.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
At least nine injured as tornadoes slam Kansas, Missouri

Stay safe please.
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Statement as of 4:40 AM CST on February 29, 2012

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

southern Indiana
central and eastern Kentucky
northern middle Tennessee

Effective this Wednesday morning from 440 am until noon CST.

Tornadoes... hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 75 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 90 statute
miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of
Louisville Kentucky to 55 miles south of Bowling Green Kentucky.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou6).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 43... ww 44... ww 45...

Discussion... srn IL/far se MO sqln with embedded... long-lived
supercells expected to continue E at 50 kts. Substantial low lvl
air mass recovery will persist ahead of sqln across cntrl KY... with
sfc dewpoints in the upr 50s to low 60s f expected over ww area by
12-15z. Large scale forcing for ascent will be weak. But presence
of existing long-lived storms... strength of wind field... and
potential for isold waa storms to become rooted in the boundary
layer ahead of sqln suggest the possibility for tornadoes in
addition to locally dmgg wind.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
450. Mean storm motion vector 26050.


... Corfidi
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just got the tornado watch text message.. storms moving at 56mph and should be overhead in about 20 minutes or so.. cell most likely to near is putting out 2 inch hail right now.. weeee...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning everyone! 67 and clear by me right now but they say heavy fog will be here shortly, going up to 80 something later on today, all in all a beautiful day here in Florida..well have a great day everyone and i hope the folks in the path of those tornado's this morning will be ok, rather nasty storms out there in the middle of the country and even over to virgina etc..stay safe and heed the local warnings ok..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-292115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
411 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. VISIBILITY WILL BE FREQUENTLY REDUCED BELOW
A QUARTER OF A MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
OF A MILE IN SPOTS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JOHNSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39198

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.