La Niña drawing to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012

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La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WxGeekVA (comment #123):
One thing I noticed about this video when it was released last spring: from roughly 0:30 to about 2:30, the guy was driving through an area slammed by the tornado just a few minutes later. IOW, not that it's anything to brag about, but he more than likely took the last images of that area prior to the storm...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Thanks Mate, I knew it was a scam,,,, kept them on the line for about 30mins,,, there dime not mine. I got suspicious when i was given an Orlando address but the guy was calling out of Tampa.
did ya get your computer is infected and we can repair it right from your phone line call yet
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Quoting Neapolitan:
All Seasons Travel scam

Thanks Mate, I knew it was a scam,,,, kept them on the line for about 30mins,,, there dime not mine. I got suspicious when i was given an Orlando address but the guy was calling out of Tampa.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Iz best to Yield the "Right of Way" for a Wedge I'd say..


,,watch what you ask for in life, esp when it comes to weather.

The thrill goes away as fast as the winds.

And all that's left sometimes, is the Humanity of it.

All else is moot.



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Quoting Articuno:



He's a mudder. His father was a mudder. His mother was a mudder!!!
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all, I won a Holiday to Orlando then a cruise around the Bahama's then 4 days in Fort Lauderdale. WOOHOO...... not.

But here's the catch...... I have to fork out the airfare to get the family to Orlando and also another $990 for other expenses. Oh well. I guess I'll just have to keep putting in my number in the Lotto, oh and If I did win the lotto, Big party at JFV's house and I'll fit a new shower curtain. lol.

Anyone here heard of All Season Travel. There the people that called me at 7:30am this morning. Not Happy!!!!

So what's going to happen to the big race that just turns left, when's it going to be on. I've tried to record it twice already, when they going to try to race again.

Why don't they just see which team can drink the most amount of beer in 1 hour then run 2 laps of the left turn only track and the driver that barrffffs the least wins and drinks a pint of milk.
All Seasons Travel scam
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Watch Kubica vs Massa battle(Japan 2007). After that,tell me:are you saying it again?

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Hey all, I won a Holiday to Orlando then a cruise around the Bahama's then 4 days in Fort Lauderdale. WOOHOO...... not.

But here's the catch...... I have to fork out the airfare to get the family to Orlando and also another $990 for other expenses. Oh well. I guess I'll just have to keep putting in my number in the Lotto, oh and If I did win the lotto, Big party at JFV's house and I'll fit a new shower curtain. lol.

Anyone here heard of All Season Travel. There the people that called me at 7:30am this morning. Not Happy!!!!

So what's going to happen to the big race that just turns left, when's it going to be on. I've tried to record it twice already, when they going to try to race again.

Why don't they just see which team can drink the most amount of beer in 1 hour then run 2 laps of the left turn only track and the driver that barrffffs the least wins and drinks a pint of milk.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Hmm. Dunno why this is still looking interesting to me...





Edit: Is anyone seeing 2 red Xes instead of lovely imagery of the wx just moving out of FL????

Maybe it isn't utube.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728

\

but i already found a way out of it ha ha u tube
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well you tube has now completely block the embedding of there vids

time for the ping of death

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Thanks Paul Timmons for the report


Mucho thankso!!!
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Breaking science news Link
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Just saw this:-

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/world/asia/japa n-considered-tokyo-evacuation-during-the-nuclear-c risis-report-says.html?_r=1

Its amazing what really happened according to this report compared to what we were all led to believe!
Imagine contemplating evacuating about 20 million people? Where on Earth would they have put them?



Saturday, February 25th, 2012
Evacuate Tokyo and All US Forces From Japan

(San Francisco) Widely known Physicist Dr Paolo Scampa, the publisher of the EU AIPRI Blog and an eminent chemical physicist, announced today his latest calculations of deadly radioactivity in Tokyo itself. Both the nuclear regulatory and media responses have been missing in action.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/02/25/evacuate- tokyo-and-all-us-forces-from-japan/

http://endthelie.com/2012/02/24/official-found-de ad-head-covered-with-plastic-bag-after-measuring-r adiation-in-tokyo-park/#axzz1nFhpVvnr
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113. flsky
Haha!! Great idea!

Quoting Patrap:
I say cancel the Race by the Car's and have the Men and Woman race on foot in the Rain for 5 Laps.

Im sure we could see some drafting and other in that time allotted.

And think of the Fuel savings.


"oh, no,!!! Jr. is bumped from behind by Danica Patrick and he is into the turn 3 wall!!!!..

Oh thats gonna make da Highlight reel Boyz!!!
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I say cancel the Race by the Car's and have the Men and Woman race on foot in the Rain for 5 Laps.

Im sure we could see some drafting and other in that time allotted.

And think of the Fuel savings.


"oh, no,!!! Jr. is bumped from behind by Danica Patrick and he is into the turn 3 wall!!!!..

Oh thats gonna make da Highlight reel Boyz!!!
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Everyone have a good night.
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Quoting presslord:
Don't wanna be racin' in the rain...


Watch Kubica vs Massa battle(Japan 2007). After that,tell me:are you saying it again?
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I knew it wouldn't be long before the Doc made a post about this.For this year's hurricane season I predict 11/6/2.Not a bad forecast If I do say so myself...
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Just saw this:-

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/world/asia/japa n-considered-tokyo-evacuation-during-the-nuclear-c risis-report-says.html?_r=1

Its amazing what really happened according to this report compared to what we were all led to believe!
Imagine contemplating evacuating about 20 million people? Where on Earth would they have put them?


That reality may still have to be contemplated.


Things are well out of Control and have been since the MOX fuel went thru the roof and scattered around the facility.

Why do you think the Press has ,er, Buried the story since July 2010?


The reactors are lost..and the ramifications could be Hemispheric or Global downstream.



All the spring calves born in the region are reporting 70% stillborn for a start.

And the Powers that be have No solution as well.

TEPCO has let bids till March 9th for ANY technology that can stop the underground fission.



Unfortunately, none exist.

Having spent a year in Japan during my Service years,,1982-83 the Japanese Govt has always been a negating force to telling the Populace the truth. And to think they are now scattering the radioactive debris all over the island, to, Share the Pain.

Wunderful thinking.


Try "Fukushima Diary" for a realistic look at what is occurring there.
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Thanks Paul Timmons for the report
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Don't wanna be racin' in the rain...

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well since there aint nothin exciting here today...I reckon Im gon go find something to git into. :D
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Quoting Patrap:



.... squeegee
LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Just saw this:-

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/world/asia/japa n-considered-tokyo-evacuation-during-the-nuclear-c risis-report-says.html?_r=1

Its amazing what really happened according to this report compared to what we were all led to believe!
Imagine contemplating evacuating about 20 million people? Where on Earth would they have put them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



.... squeegee
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012

FLZ047-054-272200-
INDIAN RIVER-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
336 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...NORTHERN INDIAN
RIVER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EST.

AT 331 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO
STORMS IN THE PROCESS OF COLLIDING OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD AND
NORTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AS THEY COLLIDE. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MICCO...FELLSMERE...SEBASTIAN INLET RECREATION.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2775 8088 2808 8087 2807 8059 2798 8054
2798 8053 2807 8057 2807 8055 2775 8038
2767 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 292DEG 9KT 2798 8073

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Quoting kwgirl:
Wave action is serious destroyer of life and limb. Water is heavy. And to assure anyone on here who cares, I will have to leave for every little storm coming my way. I now live in a Mobile Home. So there is no sheltering in place for me. But the Bull and Whistle is made of poured concrete and steel........:)
yes if i remember right, the very first evacuation order that comes in is for all mobile homes, guess its safety first.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Quoting LargoFl:
thx for the update, boy they sure can be life changing huh, the sheer power they have, to move a house, OFF its foundation geez..I've been here since 85 and luckily, nothing came even near my house but if one does approach, im gone..family safety first, curiosity can come latter when its moved on and its safe to return.
Wave action is serious destroyer of life and limb. Water is heavy. And to assure anyone on here who cares, I will have to leave for every little storm coming my way. I now live in a Mobile Home. So there is no sheltering in place for me. But the Bull and Whistle is made of poured concrete and steel........:)
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7PM Friday

Early Saturday morning

Maybe some excitement for the SE!
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7PM EST Wednesday
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Quoting kwgirl:
#86 LargoFl, you left off a few hurricanes for Key West in 2005. Katrina was north of the keys and skirted it. Forecast to be a tropical storm when it passed, I was here at work at the Pier House looking at Key West Harbor as a Cat 1 Hurricane blew. Streets were flooded from rain. I hitched a ride home in a truck and had to walk the last 6 blocks in thigh high deep water. I had to get home to my elderly mother. Then Rita, then WILMA! The keys got flooded, some areas worse than others. What scares me the most is a major storm taking out the bridges, or just one bridge. Hurricane Donna did that to the Keys in 1960. So I know the risks. Our main problem down here now is our dependence on the one looooong extension cord to the mainland for electricity as well as our water pipeline. We can live without electricity, but the water is another matter. Yes, any recovery from a major hurricane in the Keys will be long protracted and down right uncomfortable. Witness New Orleans. Or Homestead. It took Homestead 10 years to recover from Andrew.
thx for the update, boy they sure can be life changing huh, the sheer power they have, to move a house, OFF its foundation geez..I've been here since 85 and luckily, nothing came even near my house but if one does approach, im gone..family safety first, curiosity can come latter when its moved on and its safe to return.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Quoting NativeSun:
kwgirl, if a cat 3 or above visits Key West you better leave. You will have plenty of time to leave as Key West is the first area of the keys to evacuate. We lost our house to Donna when the storm hit Islamorada, only thing left was the foundation. Storm surge for a cat 3 or better will destroy Key West.
My family arrived after Hurricane Donna hit the Keys, by car. My dad was Navy and we were driving down from Norfolk. My mother said that we had to cross a pontoon bridge in Islamorada, which I do not remember, but I remember thinking that everything was upside down in Marathon. The boats were on land and the mobile homes were in the water. It was a devastating storm.
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kwgirl, if a cat 3 or above visits Key West you better leave. You will have plenty of time to leave as Key West is the first area of the keys to evacuate. We lost our house to Donna when the storm hit Islamorada, only thing left was the foundation. Storm surge for a cat 3 or better will destroy Key West.
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Nascar Checklist for Daytona.

wunderground app, check.

First turn, turn LEFT

second turn,turn LEFT

third turn, turn LEFT

..etc, etc, till crazy wreck, then pucker thy bottom and hold on..

Winner.

Smile and put on Sponsors Cap's, etc, etc, etc.


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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good comparative piece there. Thanks, AtHome.

Something I'm curious about re. tornados: what's the likelihood that one location will get hit by more than one tornado in a breakout? With tracks so relatively tiny, wouldn't it be rather unlikely that two would hit the same spot?


I don't want anything to do with a tornado! Yikes!

Yes, in fact some places have been hit twice in the same day. On April 3, 1974 the towns of Tanner, Capshaw , and Harvest, Alabama were first hit by an F5 tornado, followed by an F4 (listed by some as F5) tornado barely 30 minutes later. In some places it was impossible to tell which tornado damage what.


Tanner, Alabama tornadoes

As the cluster of thunderstorms were crossing much of the Ohio Valley and northern Indiana, additional strong storms developed much further south just east of the Mississippi River into the Tennessee Valley and Mississippi. The first clusters would produce its first deadly tornadoes into Alabama during the early evening hours.

Most of the small town of Tanner, west of Huntsville in Limestone County, was destroyed when two violent tornadoes struck the community 30 minutes apart. The first tornado formed at 6:30 pm CDT in Franklin County, Alabama and ended just over 90 minutes later in Franklin County, Tennessee. Serious damage from this first storm began in the Mt. Moriah community, with additional damage in the Phil Campbell area, and homes swept away near Moulton. Crossing the Tennessee River as a large waterspout, the storm then slammed into Tanner before dissipating near Harvest. Eyewitnesses reported that the tornado was quite large and demolished everything along its 51-mile long path.

While rescue efforts were underway to look for people under the destroyed structures, few were aware that another equally violent tornado would strike the area. The path of the second tornado, which formed at 7:35 pm CDT was 50 miles in length, and the storm formed along the Tennessee River less than a mile from the path of the earlier storm; the first half of its path very closely paralleled its predecessor. Many of the structures that were missed by the first tornado in Tanner were demolished along with remaining portions of already damaged structures; the communities of Capshaw and Harvest were likewise struck twice.

Many other structures in Franklin, Limestone and Madison counties were completely demolished, including significant portions of the communities of Harvest and Hazel Green just northeast of Tanner.[28] The death toll from the two tornadoes was over 50 and over 400 were injured. Most of the fatalities occurred in and around the Tanner area. Over 1,000 houses, 200 mobile homes and numerous other outbuildings, automobiles, power lines and trees were completely demolished or heavily damaged.

At least the first of the Tanner tornadoes is rated as an F5 according to most sources. However, National Weather Service record shows that both of them were rated the highest-scale.[26][29] The rating of the second Tanner tornado is still disputed by scientists and some of the regional NWS offices; analysis in one publication estimates F3-F4 damage along the majority of the second storm's path, with F5 damage in and around Tanner[4][30][31]

This was the second state to have been hit by more than two F5s during the Super Outbreak. The next occurrence of two F5s hitting the same state on the same day happened in March 1990 in Kansas. Meanwhile, the next F5 to hit the state was on April 4, 1977 near Birmingham.
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#86 LargoFl, you left off a few hurricanes for Key West in 2005. Katrina was north of the keys and skirted it. Forecast to be a tropical storm when it passed, I was here at work at the Pier House looking at Key West Harbor as a Cat 1 Hurricane blew. Streets were flooded from rain. I hitched a ride home in a truck and had to walk the last 6 blocks in thigh high deep water. I had to get home to my elderly mother. Then Rita, then WILMA! The keys got flooded, some areas worse than others. What scares me the most is a major storm taking out the bridges, or just one bridge. Hurricane Donna did that to the Keys in 1960. So I know the risks. Our main problem down here now is our dependence on the one looooong extension cord to the mainland for electricity as well as our water pipeline. We can live without electricity, but the water is another matter. Yes, any recovery from a major hurricane in the Keys will be long protracted and down right uncomfortable. Witness New Orleans. Or Homestead. It took Homestead 10 years to recover from Andrew.
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When a Hurricane Threatens

You can improve the odds of your home surviving high winds by taking these precautions, but you won't make it hurricane-proof. Nor do these measures guarantee your safety. Take these additional steps to protect yourself and your family as fully as possible:


• Become familiar with your community's disaster preparedness plans and create a family plan. Identify escape routes from your home and neighborhood and designate an emergency meeting place for your family to reunite if you become separated. Also establish a contact point to communicate with concerned relatives.


• Put together an emergency kit that includes a three-day supply of drinking water and food you don't have to refrigerate or cook; first aid supplies; a portable NOAA weather radio; a wrench and other basic tools; a flashlight; work gloves; emergency cooking equipment; portable lanterns; fresh batteries for each piece of equipment; clothing; blankets; baby items; prescription medications; extra car and house keys; extra eyeglasses; credit cards and cash; important documents, including insurance policies.


• Move anything in your yard that can become flying debris inside your house or garage before a storm strikes.


• If a hurricane threatens, follow weather and news reports so you know how much danger you're facing. Obey evacuation orders from local authorities.

Review your homeowners insurance policy periodically with your insurance agent or company representative to make sure you have sufficient coverage to rebuild your life and home after a hurricane. Report any property damage to your insurance agent or company representative immediately after a natural disaster and make temporary repairs to prevent further damage.

For information about filing an insurance claim after a natural disaster, contact your insurance agent or insurance company.

Source: Institute for Business and Home Safety. IBHS is a national nonprofit initiative of the insurance industry to reduce deaths, injuries, property damage, economic losses and human suffering caused by natural disasters.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Good afternoon... Another day of Daytona watching. Still looks like some significant severe weather tomorrow
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Our list focuses on coastal areas, where the effects of a hurricane can be most catastrophic. In addition to the devastation caused by high winds of 200 mph or more, the ocean itself may be driven inland by the winds, creating a "storm surge", a wall of water up to 20 feet high.

1) Southeast Florida
This area includes the major cities of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach. Forecasters estimate that once every ten years, it will be visited by a hurricane of a Category 3 or greater (winds over 111 miles per hour). The most recent such hurricane was Andrew in 1992, a Category 5 monster, so Miami is several years overdue for a major hit. Hurricane Jeanne hit the area as a Category 2 storm in 2004.

2) The Florida Keys
The town of Key West is at the end of this island chain off the southern tip of Florida. It is exposed on all sides to passing hurricanes. It was last hit by a Category 1 hurricane in 1999 and a Category 2 storm in 1998, and narrowly escaped a direct hit by Hurricane Rita in 2005.

3) Southwest Florida
Florida’s southern Gulf coast is home to the metro areas of Fort Myers and Naples. In 2004, a Category 4 hurricane named Charley slammed ashore a few miles north of Fort Myers.

4) West Florida
Tampa was most recently hit in 2004 by hurricane Frances after it crossed over the state of Florida. Though diminished in intensity after its journey over land, Frances still packed high winds and heavy rainfall. The Tampa area includes the cities of St. Petersburg, Sarasota, and Clearwater.

5) Outer Banks islands, NC
This sparsely inhabited area sticks out into the Gulf Stream, creating an area of frequent landfall for hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast.

6) Central Texas - Gulf coast
The island city of Galveston has been the site of some of the most catastrophic hurricanes in the last century. It was last hit by a hurricane in 1989, but tropical storm Allison delivered extremely heavy rainfall to the area in 2001, including Houston inland.

7) Central Florida – Atlantic coast
The hurricane threat diminishes north of the Miami area, in the cities of Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, and Cape Canaveral. Hurricane Frances made landfall here in 2004 as a Category 2 storm.

8) Florida Panhandle
In 2004, hurricane Ivan slammed into the area with Category 3 force. The metro areas of Pensacola and Panama City were hit hard in 1995 by hurricane Opal, which packed winds of 125 mph.

9) Central Gulf coast
We will all remember the name of Hurricane Katrina, the Category 4 storm that destroyed much of New Orleans and Gulfport, Mississippi. The Central Gulf Coast, including the major cities of New Orleans (LA), Biloxi (MS) and Mobile (AL), is vulnerable to another major hurricane. In 1969, Camille devastated the area as one of only three Category 5 hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland. In 2004, Ivan narrowly missed Mobile as a Category 3 storm, and Ivan made landfall at Gulf Shores, Alabama.

10) South Texas – Gulf coast
This region was last hit in 1999 by Bret, a rare Category 4 hurricane. Fortunately, Bret struck in a sparsely populated area between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. This region has avoided a catastrophic hurricane in recent years.

Hurricanes can hit anywhere along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard. Other hotspots include (in order of decreasing probability) Jacksonville, FL, Savannah, GA, Charleston, SC, Wilmington, NC, Norfolk, VA, and even Providence, RI. See also: the likelihood of hurricanes in New England, Hawaii, and California.

Between 1965 and 2004 (nearly 40 years), the Florida peninsula had only one major hurricane that made landfall (hurricane Andrew in 1992). The normal long-term probability of an intense hurricane hitting somewhere in Florida or on the East Coast is about once every three years. The odds are slightly better for the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle through the Texas coast.

If hurricane frequency increases to normally active levels, residents of Southern coastal areas will need to prepare the new onslaught. Sperling suggests, “Minimize your risk by doing your homework before you move. Use care to research the location of your new home, and how it is constructed. A little work now may save your home and possessions, and your lives.” See also: our tips for hurricane preparedness.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Quoting presslord:
So....Your race was cancelled because of rain? That's cute...
You know 'we here southern'ers' can't drive in the rain! lol

Looks like it's set for primetime TV at 7 pm today.
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So....Your race was cancelled because of rain? That's cute...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Largo, I wasn't thinking so much two cities as, say, the same neighbourhood... like hitting the same street twice within a single storm / breakout.
guess thats all in the odds, i dont think there is anything in nature that could prevent it..im guessing at that..but the odds whew, are a million to one for the same neighborhood. this would make for a great web info search though huh...some newspaper somewhere might have this in their years ago files.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...CONCERN MOUNTING OVER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF ORLANDO ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES EAST-WEST
ORIENTED FROM NEAR SCOTTSMOOR-ORLANDO-OCALA AND OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. PREVIOUSLY THIS BOUNDARY HAS ACTED AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND NOW CONVECTION IS ERUPTING
ACROSS TURTLE MOUNT...APOLLO BEACH...SHILOH AND NEAR AURANTIA AND
TURNBULL. FURTHER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE STABLE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL PASSING WEST TO
EAST THANKS IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE
AREA. THE WRF_ARW9 MODEL CONTINUES TO HINT AT SEA BREEZE/CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
IGNITING DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 500 MB REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AT -13C AS OBSERVED FROM THE 16Z KXMR SOUNDING. MID-LEVEL
ASCENT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST
OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
i'm in northwest Hillsborough and i'm starting to doubt any rain will fall in this area... Seems like there's still a bit of an onshore flow pushing the convection inland
yes im seeing the same thing, clouds all moving inland towards the east coast i guess, could use a stray shower or two as they move overhead lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42146
Largo, I wasn't thinking so much two cities as, say, the same neighbourhood... like hitting the same street twice within a single storm / breakout.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Looks like late May here today with the seabreezes moving inland.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron