La Niña drawing to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012

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La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Here is the ENSO update by the Aussies released today.

Link
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Climate change will shake the Earth

A changing climate isn't just about floods, droughts and heatwaves

Link
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Good morning. I'm under a Winter Storm Watch! Maybe I'll finally get some snow. Only an inch or two forecast though.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



YOUR CRAZY wishing for SEVERE WEATHER on people....WOW



Yeah Spin, I have to work hard if severe weather comes my way!

I'm out on the hard work.


Could you let me know how the models come together with the upcoming storm in the Midwest this weekend?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Sort of a mixed bag for the week: The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next four days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

I hope those very high low temperature anomalies go away by summer; continued lows 20 degrees above normal this time of year is comfortable, but in July or August it would be deadly. For instance, a July low in Little Rock, AR, 20 above normal would be in the low 90s. Not good...


We had warmer weather back in 1973, it was in the 70's in the last week of February, and first week of March, then the last two weeks of March, had snow and cold. This is what we call Indiana weather.
Back in 1993, it was below 0 degrees, to -2 at the first of March, always on the cycle!
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Sort of a mixed bag for the week: The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next four days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

I hope those very high low temperature anomalies go away by summer; continued lows 20 degrees above normal this time of year is comfortable, but in July or August it would be deadly. For instance, a July low in Little Rock, AR, 20 above normal would be in the low 90s. Not good...
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Quoting TampaSpin:



YOUR CRAZY wishing for SEVERE WEATHER on people....WOW


You are crazy to think wishes have any bearing on reality. Let the kid have some fun. If someone gets hurt, it isn't his fault.
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220. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
Rome on a Race Track.

jeeebus

Looong race. I'm getting sleepy....
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Rome on a Race Track.

jeeebus
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Nothing wrong with that, you're well within your right to do so if you don't like a particular comment, though I don't think minusing will cause a post to disappear for violating community standards-it takes flags to do that, nothing in it was flag-worthy as long as it's on topic and not personal attacks or bickering, but no big deal, this has become a defacto NASCAR forum anyway.
Member Since: February 5, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 271
I found nothing wrong with the article you previously posted, but I'm not afraid to say that it was your editorializing that I minused. I was on the list you mentioned and I wanted to make clear that I have no other handles but this one... nothing to hide here.

Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:
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215. flsky
Quoting Jedkins01:


I was born in Southern AZ south of Tuscon, but Ive lived in Northern Pinellas County FL for most of my life now. Ive been here since 6 years old, and I'm 21 now.


When I lived in SoCal, I used to love to go to Tucson during monsoon season. Now that I live in CFL, I no longer have to search out thunderstorms.
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Quoting flsky:

Oh, OK. Where you from, Jed?


I was born in Southern AZ south of Tuscon, but Ive lived in Northern Pinellas County FL for most of my life now. Ive been here since 6 years old, and I'm 21 now.
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213. flsky
Quoting Jedkins01:



Its from a cartoon, very hillbillyish :)

Oh, OK. Where you from, Jed?
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Quoting flsky:

Um, um, what??



Its from a cartoon, very hillbillyish :)
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Exageration?
Check out your new car with a geiger counter before you buy it....

Saturday, February 25, 2012
500 Used Cars to Be Shipped from Nagoya Port Have Exceeded Radiation Limit Since August Last Year

That's when they started testing, and 500 used cars from Nagoya Port alone.

Japanese used cars are popular in Russia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Despite the nuclear accident, the number of exported used cars in 2011 increased slightly over 2010 to 857,779 cars according to the Used Car Export Industry News, with Russia at the top with over 110K followed by the United Arab Emirates.

Kyodo News (2/25/2012):

Nagoya Port Authority disclosed on February
25 that 500 used cars were found with radiation levels at or exceeding 0.3 microsievert/hour, the standard set by the [used car] industry from August last year to January this year, and that the cars were returned to the shippers.

Statistics are funny things. 500/857,779 = 0.000583. You tell me what that means.

Also where do these numbers come from? 500 is too approximate and 857,779 to precise to be comparable and must be equally suspect. In other words what you just posted is meaningless blather.

If I were buying a used Japanese vehicle right now I would be more concerned about hidden tsunami damage than radiation.

Do I trust industry or government statistics? Depends. Do I trust the average news writer to understand and interpret the statistics they publish? Only if I know their bias and their knowledge of the subject. Almost any statistic they use came from the former sources.

You take it from there.

The attribution for the source of this is questionable, is the first or the second part from the Kytodo News?

The importance of this tragedy is too immense to garble the discussion with nonsense. It plays into the hands of those who's "Product is Doubt."
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210. flsky
Quoting Jedkins01:



I figured I would post something related indirectly to NASCAR, lol.

Um, um, what??
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Quoting flsky:

Um, what??



I figured I would post something related indirectly to NASCAR, lol.
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208. flsky
Quoting Jedkins01:
PUPPET PAL CLEM AND PUPPET PAL MITCH

Um, what??
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PUPPET PAL CLEM AND PUPPET PAL MITCH
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Thyroid testing in children delayed after Fukushima due to worries that monitoring would add anxiety to community
Posted by Lucas W Hixson on February 23, 2012


Although the government has been trying to pacify citizens by claiming there is no immediate threat to human health as a result of exposure to radiation, medical experts are deeply concerned about children and their exposure and the potential hazard to their health. Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano has been quoted as saying officials didn't foresee that farmers might ship contaminated hay to cattle ranchers.

That highlights the government's inability to think ahead and to act, said Mariko Sano, secretary general for Shufuren, a housewives organization in Tokyo.

The government is so slow to move, Sano said. They've done little to ensure food safety.


In July, Japan's biggest supermarket chain, said 1,614 kilograms (3,558 pounds) of beef from cattle fed contaminated feed had been unknowingly sold at stores in Tokyo and nine other prefectures. The government rushed to ban cattle shipments from Fukushima, although not before suffering another embarrassing case where the response was only initiated after finding contamination in publicly distributed products.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Nagoya Port Authority disclosed on February 25 that 500 used cars were found with radiation levels at or exceeding 0.3 microsievert/hour, the standard set by the [used car] industry from August last year to January this year, and that the cars were returned to the shippers.


Well, global average background radiation is about 0.3 microsievert per hour, so that level isn't anything to worry about.
Average exposure in the US (according to Wikipedia, anyway) is 0.7 microsieverts per hour, of which half is natural and half is man-made (and almost all of that is due to medical imaging - i.e. x-rays, MRIs, etc). Oh, and about 0.08 microsieverts per banana you eat... ;-) (yes, many foods contain naturally-occurring radioisotopes).
Background radiation levels in Japan are about 40% lower than the global average. Some areas of the world are nearly a hundred times higher, and the locals aren't dying of radiation-induced cancers - quite the opposite: they tend to have *lower* cancer rates than areas with low background radiation (though nobody quite knows why).
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Quoting SPLbeater:
ok, well goodnight all. be back tomorrow morning, maybe something in the positive direction as for severe weather on wednesday and saturday for me lol. :D

night!



YOUR CRAZY wishing for SEVERE WEATHER on people....WOW
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ok, well goodnight all. be back tomorrow morning, maybe something in the positive direction as for severe weather on wednesday and saturday for me lol. :D

night!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
202. flsky
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Talk about your product placement. Some hair blow-drier company needs to get its logo on the jet dryers.

Perfect!
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Quoting flsky:
Cleaning the track with Tide detergent. What a plug for Tide!
Talk about your product placement. Some hair blow-drier company needs to get its logo on the jet dryers.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
roll cages installed inside of the jet dryers may now be coming
And fire suits. Bizarre as Wayne Gretsky taken out by the Zamboni.
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199. flsky
Cleaning the track with Tide detergent. What a plug for Tide!
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roll cages installed inside of the jet dryers may now be coming
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Dear Juan....time to consider a profession change...the Daytona god's are talkin' to ya...seriously.
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Quoting Patrap:
..I dont like them storm vector's, Victor....

just don't engage the Otto pilot :>
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Never seen anything like that at any racing event so bizarre WILD
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dis race talk is getting tiring.

Look at the Relative humidity values for saturday..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Surely you jest!



I never jest... and dont call me Shirley,.

: )
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Actually, they were mentioning him immediately after....

yeah, I saw um being helped down from the rig by the Guy in the Firesuit.




This Race has been jinxed for 2 days seems.

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Quoting Patrap:
..I dont like them storm vector's, Victor....


Surely you jest!
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Quoting presslord:
Post 150...I've given up haboob jokes for Lent...
I admire your dedication.
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188. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah, 30 minutes almost after and not a single person asked if the Jet Dryer Driver was alright on TV. He took a wicked Lick with No hans Device. And he was Driving in a Shirt and jeans, with 100-200 Gals of jet Fuel . Wunderful. Humans make ya chuckle.

Actually, they were mentioning him immediately after....
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Yeah, 30 minutes almost after and not a single person asked if the Jet Dryer Driver was alright on TV. He took a wicked Lick with No hans Device. And he was Driving in a Shirt and jeans, with 100-200 Gals of jet Fuel . Wunderful. Humans make ya chuckle.
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186. flsky
Quoting Chapelhill:
Well, looks like Jaun Pablo could use some rain at the track to put out the 200 gallons of jet fuel he set on fire! What a strange crash!


could see the smoke rising up from the flames from my balcony.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Some light rain heading toward the track. Hopefully it doesn't wet the track.
Well, looks like Jaun Pablo could use some rain at the track to put out the 200 gallons of jet fuel he set on fire! What a strange crash!
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Quoting Patrap:
yeah, JapanToday.com is just chock full of TEPCO News..

pfffth

www.japantoday.com


Thanks for link...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting Skyepony:
Plume of dust coming off Africa.

I like how they redid that Sahara layer product. Upper & mid level WV is a sweet feature..


And the drought continues in West Africa.
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Quoting Patrap:
Containing Fukushima: Saving Japan From Itself (Part I)

K.T. Hiraoka

Student of Japan working in the public sector



Nakama can also become a hindrance in times of crucial decision-making where telling the truth comes head-to-head with loyalty to long-held relations. One well-known example is the case of the Japan Airlines crash in Tokyo Bay in 1982 that killed 133 people. The captain deliberately engaged the number 2 and 3 engines' thrust-reversers in flight which caused the crash. He was later found to be suffering from mental illness prior to the incident which resulted in a not guilty verdict by reason of insanity. The interesting point about this particular story is that his co-workers and even the company had known he was unstable for a long time, yet he was able to maintain his position, hierarchy and rank. This can be the danger of nakama relations -- when some one in a position of power does something he/she should not do, most are reluctant to do anything about it for fear of damaging relations.

Witness the Fukushima disaster. Not only did decision-making take too long in the early hours of the crisis because consensus needed to be formed among too many players, but there was a lack of communication due to inoperable phone systems. On top of this, the Iron Triangle players were protecting their respective turfs. Politicians and regulators protected the nuclear industry and the nuclear industry protected itself. What was best for the people of Japan took a back seat.




Very true... Even...

NRC officials suspected a ‘detonation’ at Reactor No. 1 weeks before Gundersen postulated that scenario at No. 3

Here is the video Nuclear Scientist Engineer posted...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
yeah, JapanToday.com is just chock full of TEPCO News..

pfffth

www.japantoday.com
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Exageration?
Check out your new car with a geiger counter before you buy it....

Saturday, February 25, 2012
500 Used Cars to Be Shipped from Nagoya Port Have Exceeded Radiation Limit Since August Last Year

That's when they started testing, and 500 used cars from Nagoya Port alone.

Japanese used cars are popular in Russia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Despite the nuclear accident, the number of exported used cars in 2011 increased slightly over 2010 to 857,779 cars according to the Used Car Export Industry News, with Russia at the top with over 110K followed by the United Arab Emirates.

Kyodo News (2/25/2012):

Nagoya Port Authority disclosed on February 25 that 500 used cars were found with radiation levels at or exceeding 0.3 microsievert/hour, the standard set by the [used car] industry from August last year to January this year, and that the cars were returned to the shippers.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Containing Fukushima: Saving Japan From Itself (Part I)

K.T. Hiraoka

Student of Japan working in the public sector



Nakama can also become a hindrance in times of crucial decision-making where telling the truth comes head-to-head with loyalty to long-held relations. One well-known example is the case of the Japan Airlines crash in Tokyo Bay in 1982 that killed 133 people. The captain deliberately engaged the number 2 and 3 engines' thrust-reversers in flight which caused the crash. He was later found to be suffering from mental illness prior to the incident which resulted in a not guilty verdict by reason of insanity. The interesting point about this particular story is that his co-workers and even the company had known he was unstable for a long time, yet he was able to maintain his position, hierarchy and rank. This can be the danger of nakama relations -- when some one in a position of power does something he/she should not do, most are reluctant to do anything about it for fear of damaging relations.

Witness the Fukushima disaster. Not only did decision-making take too long in the early hours of the crisis because consensus needed to be formed among too many players, but there was a lack of communication due to inoperable phone systems. On top of this, the Iron Triangle players were protecting their respective turfs. Politicians and regulators protected the nuclear industry and the nuclear industry protected itself. What was best for the people of Japan took a back seat.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Some light rain heading toward the track. Hopefully it doesn't wet the track.

Looks like it may be just south of the track, moving se. This station is at Embry Riddle which is just about on top of the Speedway.
Link
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.