La Niña drawing to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012

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La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ILwthrfan:
I'm a watch'n it Mike.  Seems like the models have been trending it further and further north.  So much as to Minneapolis may even be all rain for a significant portion of the storm.  They were saying 6-12 with 14 yesterday but all that has shifted 100 miles or so further north.  Minneapolis now just expecting a mess of everything 3-6 inches at best and that is looking grim with a temp already at 31.  Although there is a massive batch of precipitation just off to the southwest of Minneapolis and it is building in intensity, it still looks like Central and Northern Minnesota is going to get the brunt of the winter weather from this one.  
yuck ice under the snow
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2007...la nina year
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

The importance of this tragedy is too immense to garble the discussion with nonsense. It plays into the hands of those who's "Product is Doubt."

Amen.
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2006...el nino year
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Quoting Minnemike:
too bad there aren't more midwesterners here... this system is the talk of the town round here!
I'm a watch'n it Mike.  Seems like the models have been trending it further and further north.  So much as to Minneapolis may even be all rain for a significant portion of the storm.  They were saying 6-12 with 14 yesterday but all that has shifted 100 miles or so further north.  Minneapolis now just expecting a mess of everything 3-6 inches at best and that is looking grim with a temp already at 31.  Although there is a massive batch of precipitation just off to the southwest of Minneapolis and it is building in intensity, it still looks like Central and Northern Minnesota is going to get the brunt of the winter weather from this one.  
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I think that if el nino were to form, it would take a while as the effects of la nina are still present. Take for example Jamaica where I'm at...currently its very warm andits not very windy...which is expected during an la nina. I can remember back in 2009-2010 when we had that strong el nino, the caribbean had one of their worst drought in a long time and it was extremely windy...that's why we had that very tame hurricane season back in 2009. we may or may not have an el nino this year, but I'm urging people to be prepared for this hurricane season as it only takes one storm to impact an area and cause major damage.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
you know i cant help but wonder what people will do on December 21st....maybe try and evacuate people to outer space, put some protection out, and then the clock goes 12:01 AM 12/22/12 and we are still here. hmm. i see alot of wasted money, or wasted energy. :D

Weather subject, here is GFS forecast for saturday. I been watchin this for awhile

Relative Humidity

850mb :D
we will be still here at 1201 dec 21 2012 calender don't end till 603 am est dec 21 2012 at the rising of the morning sun and we will still be here then as well just not as we know it at the moment
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
SPC 1030 CST Day 1 Convective Outlook


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
29/12Z. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR MULTIPLE AREAS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

...NEB/KS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
CONDITIONS ACROSS NEB/KS ARE STARTING COLD AND DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S/40S. HOWEVER...RAPID MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE HELP TO ERODE
THE CLOUDS AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO REGION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F ARE EXPECTED INTO SOUTHERN NEB ALONG
WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL CAPE. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS BEFORE DARK...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A RISK OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE STORMS
IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEB/IA.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF
MAINTAINING THE SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST TO THE MO RIVER.

...KS/OK/MO THIS EVENING...
MID LEVEL CAPPING IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL AFTER DARK...WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES OVER
CENTRAL KS/OK. MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM FIRST IN CENTRAL KS AND BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO
OK...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MO/AR DURING THE EVENING.
FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF DISCRETE
STORMS CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO
SUPPORT A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

...MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...
THE INCREASING CONVECTION OVER OK/KS DURING THE EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONGEAL ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERSITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES...WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
INCREASING THE RISK OF BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED PARCELS AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z.

..HART/COHEN/MOSIER.. 02/28/2012
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18360
Good afternoon guys...how are you?
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Whew! Glad you settled that. Now Doc M can take the season off...LOL


i really hope we dont have another 09...my first tracking season, and i got 9 storms. :(
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268. Skyepony (Mod)
TXMegaWatt~ Your sort of assumptions are getting us left behind in the world.. Look to Germany. China is handily surpassing us in solar panel production because their big energy corporations haven't been keeping them tied in court with bogus lawsuits last last 20+ years.. I'm making solar panels for less than $0.65 a watt.. That gives me more money to spend elsewhere in our economy. & my family left a coal mining town along time ago. Working for big energy & having one strip mining your town isn't as glorious & great as you make it out.

The share of electricity produced from renewable energy in Germany has increased from 6.3 percent of the national total in 2000 to over 20 percent in the first half of 2011.[1] In 2010, investments totaling 26 billion euros were made in Germany’s renewable energies sector. According to official figures, some 370,000 people in Germany were employed in the renewable energy sector in 2010, especially in small and medium sized companies. This is an increase of around 8 percent compared to 2009 (around 339,500 jobs), and well over twice the number of jobs in 2004 (160,500). About two-thirds of these jobs are attributed to the Renewable Energy Sources Act[2][3] Germany is the world's first major renewable energy economy.[4] In 2010 nearly 17% (more than 100 TWH) of Germany's electricity supply (603 TWH) was produced from renewable energy sources, more than the 2010 contribution of gas-fired power plants.[5]

Renewable electricity in 2010 was 101.7 TWh including wind power 36.5 TWh, biomass and biowaste 33.5 TWh, hydropower 19.7 TWh and photovoltage solar power 12.0 TWh.[6]
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37353
you know i cant help but wonder what people will do on December 21st....maybe try and evacuate people to outer space, put some protection out, and then the clock goes 12:01 AM 12/22/12 and we are still here. hmm. i see alot of wasted money, or wasted energy. :D

Weather subject, here is GFS forecast for saturday. I been watchin this for awhile

Relative Humidity

850mb :D
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Quoting prcane4you:
BAD NEWS FOR HURRICANES LOVERS.NEXT SEASON GOING TO BE A BORING ONE.THANKS TO EL NINO.SORRY GUYS.


Whew! Glad you settled that. Now Doc M can take the season off...LOL
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even if it means oil shooting to $150-$200 a barrel,is the right thing for them to do.


no
it is not the right thing for them to do
the right thing is to give up what they seek
easy
until that point is reach
they will not stop from seeking
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting RitaEvac:
But the REAL secret is what is underneath the Vault....the Hive






what in Gods' great earth is that??
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Quoting EnigmA07:
Climate change will shake the Earth

A changing climate isn't just about floods, droughts and heatwaves

Link

That is a very interesting article you linked. Here is a paste of the final paragraph:-
" At a time when an additional 220,000 people are lining up at the global soup kitchen each and every night; when energy, water and food resources are coming under ever-growing pressure, and when the debilitating effects of anthropogenic climate change are insinuating themselves increasingly into every nook and cranny of our world and our lives, the last thing we need is for the dozing subterranean giant to awaken."
I would recommend taking the time to read it. There a lot more to this global warming/climate change than meets the eye, I for one would have been a sceptic if I had not seen some of the effects personally and these sat shots that keep getting posted of China and Indian pollution take some swallowing in more ways than one, when you realise we are breathing that stuff as well!

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"their"

and, "War is stupid"

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Quoting RitaEvac:
About time Israel, do your thing



that may not work out in their favor



Iran hails from a rich liberal Persian (not Arab) culture heritage and was founded in the principles of benign(ish) Zoastroanism
Iran has been occupied by Islamic rule brought in by Arab invasion since the 7th century
Iran is a huge Middle Eastern country and represents a considerable population, influence and raw force.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Minnemike:
too bad there aren't more midwesterners here... this system is the talk of the town round here!
I don't live there,but what are the conditions like?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16411
too bad there aren't more midwesterners here... this system is the talk of the town round here!
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Link

Beam me up Scotty!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
But the REAL secret is what is underneath the Vault....the Hive






really, I mean come on 7.7million a piece. I dont see to many of those being built
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lol doomsday...sounds like a rated R movie to me
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Quoting RitaEvac:
The ships are built and ready to float. lol
Looks just like the scene off the 2012 movie.


If I was building this doomsday Seed Depository I think I would put it higher above sea level.  Looks relatively low.
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But the REAL secret is what is underneath the Vault....the Hive




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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even if it means oil shooting to $150-$200 a barrel,is the right thing for them to do.
"doomsdayers negativity" attitude is unhealthy prefer the weather nothing like a cat 3
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even if it means oil shooting to $150-$200 a barrel,is the right thing for them to do.


Yep
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This system does not look too impressive now.
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Quoting prcane4you:
BAD NEWS FOR HURRICANES LOVERS.NEXT SEASON GOING TO BE A BORING ONE.THANKS TO EL NINO.SORRY GUYS.
Thank you for the heads up thy all knowing Grand Poo Bah!!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
About time Israel, do your thing



Even if it means oil shooting to $150-$200 a barrel,is the right thing for them to do.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
425 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-282130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
425 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. DENSE FOG WILL BE PATCHY
AND SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS AROUND SUNRISE. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JOHNSON
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BAD NEWS FOR HURRICANES LOVERS.NEXT SEASON GOING TO BE A BORING ONE.THANKS TO EL NINO.SORRY GUYS.
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Quoting EnigmA07:
Climate change will shake the Earth

A changing climate isn't just about floods, droughts and heatwaves

Link


Doing something about global warming (if it really even exists) is an effort that must start with lessening the demand for such commodities. It starts with the individual. Don’t go after energy companies demanding they stop emitting greenhouse gases by burning oil, coal, or natural gas. Trust me, as long as there is a demand for it, they will keep doing what they do. Money is the root of all evil. By taking out the demand, you lessen their desire to make abundant wealth from it. However, reducing demand for electricity might be the hardest thing we as humans would ever face.

On the other hand, you have millions of people across the globe that make their living off of energy production facilities like coal and natural gas burning plants. Taking out very affordable energy like coal will only make your electricity prices go up and cause many, many people to lose their way of life. I think our economy is already in the tanker, don't ya think? The taxes these facilities pay to the local communities is astronomical. Try telling a poor rural community with no jobs available that they shouldn’t build a 2000MW coal plant in their community. Try convincing them that they don’t need the abundance of new jobs or the tax money paid for schools, government buildings, etc. There would be some chuckles, no doubt. Building new, renewable energy production sites is a good idea, but trust me, we have a long way to go to be able to meet the skyrocketing demand for power. Try supporting a large and demanding electric grid like Texas (ERCOT) with wind and water. I'm afraid it would be a disaster to say the least. Bottom line, we're just not there yet. The solution is to keep working on ways to make more power from less resources and have it sustainable. Making a gradual switch to newer, more efficient technology is what our culture does. By simply saying, stop doing this and start doing that is a joke. It would be an inevitable epic fail.
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The ships are built and ready to float. lol
Looks just like the scene off the 2012 movie.

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Arctic doomsday vault grows a few seeds bigger


wars destroyed seed banks in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another one in Egypt was looted during last year's uprising.
The Svalbard Global Seed Vault -- sometimes referred to as a doomsday vault -- is designed to withstand global warming, earthquakes and even nuclear strikes










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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280951
SPC AC 280951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE WRN-CONUS TROUGH DESCRIBED IN DAYS2-3 OUTLOOKS WILL PROCEED EWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRALPLAINS DAY-4/2ND-3RD. MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL PROGS VARY A GREAT DEAL ON AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THEN.THEY ALSO VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON POLEWARD EXTENT OF WARM-SECTOR SFC ISODROSOTHERMS IN 50S/60S F...WHILE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT ON TIMING OF OTHER SFC AND MIDLEVEL FEATURES. IN MOST SCENARIOS...HOWEVER...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY
DAY-4...WHILE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. POSITIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LAGGING BEHIND COLD FRONT...INDICATE
1. LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK ABOVE SFC FRONT AND IN WARM SECTOR...AND
2. BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT *PRECLUDE* SVR...IN FACT...SOME PART OF PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR MAY NEED AOA 30% PROBABILITIES IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID THIS DAY. HOWEVER...THREAT
APPEARS TOO UNCERTAIN SPATIALLY FOR UNCONDITIONAL 30% AREA ATTM.

THEREAFTER...PRESENCE OF DEEP/ERN CONUS TROUGH ALOFT AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL THETAE SHOULD REDUCE SVR RISK TO BELOW CATEGORICAL 30% CRITERIA.

..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2012


Still some confusion amongst models for Friday-Saturday. With a low of 968/964 over the Great Lakes..hmmmmmmm

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well that was funny. my weather radio went off, and i was thinkin 'there aint nothin out there!!?!or is there???!!'

come to find out, i had forgot to turn my 9:30 alarm clock off lol and it went off xD

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About time Israel, do your thing

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6 inches of snow... snow day!!! hoping the strom on thurs will inch up!
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hey guys I will just quickly say this I think that we will go nutral for the fall and hurric. season hey may even stay on the cool side as well anyway this may mean two thing we could have a good season or we could have an active plus wasn't 05 a transition season going from La Niña to El Niño
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The upper part of the slight,(Iowa, Nebraska, etc,) is currently near freezing and should only warm to near 50 degrees.
Looks interesting.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS E/NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR OH/LWR TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE BC CST LIKELY TO AMPLIFY SE TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW THIS PERIOD...EXPECT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
GRT BASIN WILL ACCELERATE ENE TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS EVE...BEFORE
CONTINUING NE TO EVOLVE INTO A COMPACT CLOSED OVER THE UPR MS VLY
EARLY WED. POTENT VORT MAX WITH THE GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLNS TNGT.

AT THE SFC...LEE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY OVER NE
CO...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING NE TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS BY MIDNIGHT
...AND INTO SRN MN EARLY WED. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT ATTM TRAILS
SSW THROUGH CNTRL NM...AND AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE NOW ENTERING
FAR W TX. FARTHER E...CURRENT SFC DATA SHOW SHALLOW WARM FRONT
BEGINNING TO FORM FROM N CNTRL TX ESE TO NRN LA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NE AS SERN MO AND THE LWR OH VLY BY
EARLY WED.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND
ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SRN PLNS NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND
THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
WED.

...SRN PLNS INTO OZARKS AND LWR OH/TN VLYS TODAY/TNGT...
EML ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHOULD KEEP
ENVIRONMENT CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER WRN PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG
MERGING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...SFC HEATING...AND 30-60 M HEIGHT FALLS
ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING UPR TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WDLY
SCTD TSTMS FROM NW TX NNEWD INTO WRN OK AND CNTRL KS BY EARLY EVE.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM A BIT LATER THIS EVE FARTHER E AND
NE...ALONG WRN FRINGE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS FROM
N CNTRL/NE TX THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF OK INTO PARTS OF AR AND
SRN/CNTRL MO. DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS WILL BE FOSTERED BY UPLIFT
ALONG WARM FRONT.

STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING DEEP
WIND FIELD WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG SUPERCELLS GIVEN 60-90 KT
SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR. INITIALLY...STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...WHERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP TNGT
THROUGH EARLY WED AS STORM COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASES OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO AR/SRN MO INVOF THE LLJ. LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WARM FRONT...WHERE AN ELONGATED...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY POSE A SIZABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG
WIND...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300-400 M2/S2...AND MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ENE
INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS EARLY WED AS THE LLJ JET DEVELOPS
RAPIDLY NEWD.


...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NEB AND KS THIS AFTN IN EXIT REGION
OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPR VORT. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE NE INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA BY EARLY EVE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
LIKELY TO EXHIBIT SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND 75 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A POCKET OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVE.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL/PETERS.. 02/28/2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
236. j2008
Quoting Jedkins01:


I was born in Southern AZ south of Tuscon, but Ive lived in Northern Pinellas County FL for most of my life now. Ive been here since 6 years old, and I'm 21 now.
Quoting flsky:


When I lived in SoCal, I used to love to go to Tucson during monsoon season. Now that I live in CFL, I no longer have to search out thunderstorms.

If you would like I will keep you all updated on the monsoon, I was born raised and still live in Tucson.
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Good Morning everyone! foggy morning here but it will clear out and going up in the 80's today! I can stand that LOL...have a great day everyone!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. I'm under a Winter Storm Watch! Maybe I'll finally get some snow. Only an inch or two forecast though.
Good Luck up there and stay warm
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Quoting TampaSpin:



YOUR CRAZY wishing for SEVERE WEATHER on people....WOW

Not really....what do you think storm and tornado chasers do? If they wish for it, and it occurs, it's not their fault, they don't control the weather.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Interesting, they're only expecting neutral conditions by fall.


And some pushback by La Nina as the daily SOI index has turned positive.

Link
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Quoting TampaSpin:



YOUR CRAZY wishing for SEVERE WEATHER on people....WOW


i dont wish severe weather on anybody but myself.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the ENSO update by the Aussies released today.

Link


Interesting, they're only expecting neutral conditions by fall.
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Here is the ENSO update by the Aussies released today.

Link
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Here is the ENSO update by the Aussies released today.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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