New product allows you to explore record-setting extreme weather

By: Angela Fritz , 6:14 PM GMT on February 23, 2012

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We've launched a new extreme weather product this week: Record Extremes. Recent, globally record-setting years have demanded a product that combines U.S. and international record extremes into one, easy to use interface. The Record Extremes page will give you the option to see U.S. and international records on a map and table. You can select any combination of record types at once, which, combined with the map, provides a interesting visual way to investigate record-setting events. The product uses data from three sources: (1) NOAA's National Climate Data Center, (2) Wunderground's U.S. records, and (3) Wunderground's International records.

The NCDC records begin in 1850 and include official NOAA record extreme events for ASOS and COOP weather stations in all 50 U.S. states as well as Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Pacific Islands. In this database you can find records for maximum high temps, minimum high temps, maximum low temps, minimum high temps, snow, and precipitation on daily, monthly, and all-time scales.

The Wunderground extremes were compiled by our weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris monitors 300 stations across the U.S. for Record Extremes in maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow events. Most of these U.S. records go back to the end of the 19th century, though the oldest site in this database is Charleston, SC, where precipitation records started in 1737! Internationally, Chris monitors 150 countries worldwide for all-time record high temperatures and all-time record low temperatures. If you're interested in diving deeper into extreme weather in the U.S. and abroad, Chris's book Extreme Weather is an excellent resource.



Figure 1. All-time snow records broken during the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. These records were found by selecting NCDC as the source, a start date of 2011-01-31, an end date of 2011-02-02, "maximum snowfall," and "all-time."


We built the Record Extremes product to make it easy to find specific records you're looking for, or just browse the records in general.

Check records that were set on a specific date
You can check on records that were set yesterday, for example, by setting the calendar to yesterday's date, and selecting all the record variables and types that you're interested in.

Explore all records set in a certain time range
2011 was a record-setting year for the U.S., and most of the records were high maximum temp and high minimum temps. To see all of these warm records that were set last year, select "NCDC" as the source, 2011-01-01 as the start date and 2011-12-31 as the end date. Select Maximum High Temp and Maximum Low Temp in weather variables, and select all-time in the record type.

View current standing international records in the Wunderground database
Select either the Wunderground International records, and instead of choosing a date range, select "Show current standing records." This will bring up all standing records in the database for whatever record variable and type you select. Whereas we've collected every record ever set or broken from NCDC, the Wunderground records are always the current, standing record, whenever it was set. As you move your map around the globe, you'll see each country's all-time maximum high temp and all-time maximum low temp.

Filter your table results
Looking for a specific location or record within your search results? Use the "Filter Results" option in the table to narrow down your search.

Let us know what you think!

Angela

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Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I was using KLVX on GR2Analyst.
Lol I guess it died out really quickly.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'm only getting 49 with it. Are you using the KLVX radar?

Yeah, I was using KLVX on GR2Analyst. The storm has weakened now though, probably because of the marginal moisture there /at the current time/.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting wxmod:
Mystery image. Who wants to give it a name? MODIS today.


Sorry. I dropped my napkin on the lens. I'll get it.
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Quoting Chucktown:
Press look out, could be our first "active" weather day tomorrow here in the old Lowcountry.


Thanks for the heads up! I think...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
117. MTWX
Quoting Chucktown:


No recent meso disco from SPC, this always will preclude a watch.

Not always, sometimes time frame doesn't allow a pre-watch MD. Though they will usually post one shortly after posting the watch to get the details out.
MD 145 just expired 20 minutes ago for the area in question...
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116. wxmod
Mystery image. Who wants to give it a name? MODIS today.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
115. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, within a few minute of my previous post, we already have a storm cell that should go severe-warned very shortly. Up to 58.0 dbz.


Not sure which site radar you are using, but either that site is "firing hot" or the WSR-88 in Louisville is cold.. Link
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Press look out, could be our first "active" weather day tomorrow here in the old Lowcountry.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Shower initiation has already begun across western Kentucky. These cells will continue to strengthen as they move northeastward, and more will form as time progresses. I'd expect a Tornado Watch within the next hour or two.



No recent meso disco from SPC, this always will preclude a watch.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, within a few minute of my previous post, we already have a storm cell that may go severe-warned very shortly unless it weakens. Up to 58.0 dbz.

I'm only getting 49 with it. Are you using the KLVX radar?
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Lovely, but bizarro weather here:

"Balmy temperatures have hit near-record highs for February - with the mercury soaring from -18C to 18C in less than two weeks.

Exceptionally mild weather saw Britons descending on seaside towns, while others enjoyed lunch outside in parks.

The highest temperature on Thursday was in Coleshill, Warwickshire, where the mercury peaked at 18.7C."

(That's from -0.5F to 66F.)

That's something you'd expect of like North Dakota, but not here. It's February and 19C!?

Hardly complaining though and looks to be a one off for the time being, remaining average or so (with swings) for the foreseeable.

After a mild December, a sudden cold snap and now this, plants and hibernating animals must be so confused.

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Lol, within a few minute of my previous post, we already have a storm cell that may go severe-warned very shortly unless it weakens. Up to 58.0 dbz.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Shower initiation has already begun across western Kentucky. These cells will continue to strengthen as they move northeastward, and more will form as time progresses. I'd expect a Tornado Watch within the next hour or two.



NWS CHAT for EMA and NWS is quiet!


for the Indiana Kentucky areas for now!
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108. wxmod
A lot of this going on today. MODIS over CA-OR border.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
Man, I'm looking on the radar, I don't see anything but green or white or pink, NO severe storms anywhere!


I think were out of the danger if this keeps up!
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Could be some 'fun' next week if this holds...
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Angela's in da house!!!!!!! Now it's a party!!!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Shower initiation has already begun across western Kentucky. These cells will continue to strengthen as they move northeastward, and more will form as time progresses. I'd expect a Tornado Watch within the next hour or two.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting sunlinepr:



Quoting Mochizuki San - fukushima-diary.com

It s just human to think western Japan is safe outside of Fukushima is safe. It s just an imaginary boarder of human, has nothing to do with radiation. Radiation doesn t think, oh I 9m getting out of Fukushima, shall stop here or should I get to Tokyo by Train or car.
Look at the world map. Japan is such a tiny island. Everywhere is the same. and now they re distributing the radioactive debris to all over Japan, to share the pain , which is so typical for Japanese, and all the food is contaminated. Cars, people, train, they are all contaminated and move around in Japan. There is no safe place in Japan. That s why I got out of there.
There are 4 main islands, Honshu, Hokkaiso, Shikoku, and Kyushu. but they are so close that you can even drive by car. They are all the same.
Mr. Koide from Kyoto university said, old people have to eat contaminated food because they have responsibility for nuclear, and it s the responsibility of future generation to accept radiation.
I dare to say no. I won t accept anything except for completely 0Bq/kg. I have no reason to eat radiation. I completely refuse to be involved in their fantasy world like Kamikaze. I really think all of them should leave Japan soon as possible.


------------------------------------------------- ----

Add to human activity the many unaccounted natural cycles like pollen that propagates by wind and insects, winter snow meltdown waters that go down stream and carry radiation and many other factors that we aren't aware off, not living there....

---------------------

Gundersen in Japan: 1,000,000 additional cancers from Fukushima over next 20 years Based on university studies after Three Mile Island
The Japan National Press Club hosts Arnie Gundersen. Over 80 journalists were present where questions were asked regarding the nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi and the ongoing risks associated with the GE Mark 1 BWR nuclear reactors.

Additional cancers because of Fukushima
1,000,000 cancers over next 20 years
based on TMI studies by Dr Steve Wing at U. of N. Carolina
When I use his analysis I develop a number on the order of 1,000,000 cancers A lot of analysis to indicate a 10% increase in lung cancer and others at TMI
Link


Ok, you're first chunk of text is someone who is a little on the wacky side. There is no place on Earth where the radiation level is 0 Bq/kg. Nowhere. Everything has some amount of radioactivity associated with. In fact, one essential nutrient your body requires (Potassium) contains a naturally radioactive isotope in sufficient quantities that it is easily measurable even with low grade equipment. Just go and buy a container of salt substitute (potassium chloride) and measure the radioactivity.

Your second chunk of text doesn't really bring anything new to light. I'm pretty sure scientists know how radioactive contamination can move through the ecosystem.

Your third chunk of text points to a very controversial and disputed study, which has been contradicted by several other studies on the topic of TMI. Wikipedia has a decent article including links to some of the studies on the subject. The general consensus? Really hard to determine since most people ended up dying from various other causes before anything like cancer could get them (car crashes, heart disease, you know...life).

To add to that, several organizations, both internal and external to Japan have produced studies showing that the likely health effects (if any show up) will be small and occur over the long term, not immediately kill 12 million people.

You seem to be trying to portray this as some sort of apocalyptic event that will kill everyone and that the government is doing all it can to ensure that will happen. Considering their government is democratically elected, I'm having a hard time seeing the logic in killing off your own population, especially since the politicians of said government all live in or near areas that would also have this substantial contamination. It seems sort of self-defeating.
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Phoenix AZ, SunWize Technologies, Inc., has completed the first phase of the nation's largest solar carport for VA at its Carl T. Hayden VA Medical Center in Phoenix, AZ.


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Quoting JNCali:
Yeah, they won't display on a global scale because they'd have to be so small and jumbled together it would be pointless.. If I can pull continental data I'm happy..


Smaller icons (dots)or "summary icons" (a semi-transparent icon covering an area with a numeric total) could solve the problem.

I'd like to be able to pull back and see where the warm/cold/rain/snow is setting records across the planet.

Or, at the minimum, I'd like to be notified that I'm not seeing all the data.
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100. MTWX
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's definitely warm across the southeast US, with a number of stations reporting near-record or record highs. For instance, Muscle Shoals, Alabama, has set a new high temp record for February of 82 degrees, or 25 degrees above the normal high of 57 for the date.

Lots of energy for the taking...

We are currently at 84 degrees here in Columbus, MS, which puts us roughly 25 degrees above average and breaks our record for the day by 15 degrees!!
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Critical Fire outlook in West and Western-central Texas, South central and Southern New Mexico

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Radiation levels like those in the story aren't something that would be easily missed nor under reported, as that would imply no less than about half the country has been irradiated to the level of Chernobyl or worse. If that indeed were the case, then you would already be seing the effects of it from humans down to plants. It would also be implausible for a cover up, unless you're also implying some sort of international conspiracy.

I don't think anyone believes the Fukushima accident is "light", but in this particular case the story simply doesn't make sense. And the fact that the initial source seems to be a disgruntled political party that took a very poor approach to conducting the survey makes it even more specious.


I would very easily agree with you that such a broad range of deception would be inconceivable and unrealistic, if it were not for the culture of the Japanese people. They share responsibility, for when things go wrong, and will always make efforts to save face. The Japanese show great honor and respect for country. ... With that said, I wish we had unbiased and truthful people over there monitoring the situation for ourselves.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When was this written? SPC's Mesoscale Analysis SBCAPE (Surface-based CAPE) and SBCIN (Surface-based CIN [CAP]) tool shows nothing across Georgia.>

1:06 PM EST
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
And this look nice:

Georgia will probably get their greatest threat of Severe Weather tonight as a squall line builds down from the north. The northern portion of the state is obviously at the greatest risk of Severe Weather, where primarily a Damaging Wind threat is evident.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting BobWallace:
A problems with the new extreme weather map.

If I set the parameters for something like 'new all-time maximum temperature' for 1/1/08 to today and I'm zoomed in a bit then I see all sorts of records pop up.

If I zoom out to where I can see the entire world at once most of the flags disappear.

It's a common problem with Google maps. Anyone who has looked at current temp/wind for a region has probably seen the same thing happen.

Perhaps there's some way to lock zoom at the maximum spot at which all the data is displayed or post a warning when the maximum is reached/exceeded?

Yeah, they won't display on a global scale because they'd have to be so small and jumbled together it would be pointless.. If I can pull continental data I'm happy..
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It's definitely warm across the southeast US, with a number of stations reporting near-record or record highs. For instance, Muscle Shoals, Alabama, has set a new high temp record for February of 82 degrees, or 25 degrees above the normal high of 57 for the date.

Lots of energy for the taking...
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Quoting SPLbeater:
The 30% line for damaging wind gusts has been extended southward into central TN.

Still not seeing any activity in the risk area, is this an event that goes from nothing to everything near dusk?
got some nice gusts and WARM temps here in Mid TN.. clear skies but still calling for 50% t-storms after 2100 tonight..
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And this look nice:
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Quoting Patrap:
2012


2011


That's looking pretty toasty for this time of year.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, if you still believe that the Fukushima accident is a light one and trust what TepCo and the government are saying, then all these posts about the Fukushima Nuclear crisis are Sensational stuff...

There are many places posting the hidden reality there.... But you can make your own research by searching bbc.com, Enenews.com, fukushima-diary.com, fairewinds.com, province.com, reports from US nuclear scientst and engineer, Arnie Gundersen (check out the many videos in Youtube from this engineer).

For me, this is not sensational stuff, but just the tip of the iceberg.... and it's going to be news for a long time to come....


Radiation levels like those in the story aren't something that would be easily missed nor under reported, as that would imply no less than about half the country has been irradiated to the level of Chernobyl or worse. If that indeed were the case, then you would already be seing the effects of it from humans down to plants. It would also be implausible for a cover up, unless you're also implying some sort of international conspiracy.

I don't think anyone believes the Fukushima accident is "light", but in this particular case the story simply doesn't make sense. And the fact that the initial source seems to be a disgruntled political party that took a very poor approach to conducting the survey makes it even more specious.
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Quoting SlormTracker2K:



You can run, but you cant hide, from EL NINO. It's coming.


Yea ur right I think it is
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Means Gulf canes to watch this year...
There have not been to many the past 5 years..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
FORECAST WISE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP FROM 850-750MB THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WHICH WILL TEND TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY
ARE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER SITUATION VERY WELL...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY INDICATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 70-75.
WE WILL DEFINITELY RISE ABOVE THAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD
COVER NOW CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE STATE. IF TEMPERATURES WERE
ALLOWED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY WE COULD BREAK THE CAP.
..BUT WITH
SUCH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND WITH MOST OF THE LIFT STILL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE COMING HOURS.


Hope we break it!!

When was this written? SPC's Mesoscale Analysis SBCAPE (Surface-based CAPE) and SBCIN (Surface-based CIN [CAP]) tool shows nothing across Georgia.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
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NWS Birmingham:

FORECAST WISE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP FROM 850-750MB THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WHICH WILL TEND TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DON`T LOOK LIKE THEY
ARE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER SITUATION VERY WELL...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY INDICATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 70-75.
WE WILL DEFINITELY RISE ABOVE THAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD
COVER NOW CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE STATE. IF TEMPERATURES WERE
ALLOWED TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY WE COULD BREAK THE CAP.
..BUT WITH
SUCH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND WITH MOST OF THE LIFT STILL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE COMING HOURS.


Hope we break it!!
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An analysis of the current atmospheric conditions across the Ohio Valley reveals that the area is becoming primed for an outburst of severe thunderstorms. While the decent CAPE values reside across southern Tennessee and northern Mississippi currently, this area has quickly been traveling northward as dew points surge into the 50s and 60s. Mid-level lapse rates, used to predict large hail, are decent (values of 6-7), which indicates that any storms that form will have the potential to produce golf-ball sized hail. Effective bulk shear has reached 65-75 knots, which means that a significant damaging wind event is likely. Effective SR Helicity values are near 400 across Tennessee, which supports a relatively decent tornado threat later this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion, mentioning that a Tornado Watch is possible over the next few hours. Given the circumstances, I expect thunderstorm initiation to begin over the next hour, and for them to turn Severe over the next two.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting TampaSpin:



Hey Pat,
The comparable graphics really speaks loudly how warm the Gulf Winter Temps have been this year. People should not get overly excited tho about the current temp anomalies as they do usually balance out. IF and ONLY IF ElNino does come as fast as some are forecasting then Shear will be high in the Atlantic Basin giving a slower than Normal Season. But, It only takes one MAJOR and ONE STORM to be a very BAD SEASON.


Means Gulf canes to watch this year...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, but I do not live in South Carolina, I live in Southeastern North Carolina, specifically in one of the biggest disaster counties in the state. :P


Then you're going down...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Last evening's tornado in Rome, GA, was an EF-1:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
308 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012


...PRELIMINARY TORNADO REPORT FOR FLOYD COUNTY FROM FEBRUARY 22 2012...

LOCATION: FLOYD COUNTY
RATING: EF-1
WIND SPEED: 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 3.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 75 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
DEATHS: 0 DIRECT, 1 INDIRECT
.


I went to bed about 20 minutes before this happened a few counties north of me. I wonder if there was a warning on these storms
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A problems with the new extreme weather map.

If I set the parameters for something like 'new all-time maximum temperature' for 1/1/08 to today and I'm zoomed in a bit then I see all sorts of records pop up.

If I zoom out to where I can see the entire world at once most of the flags disappear.

It's a common problem with Google maps. Anyone who has looked at current temp/wind for a region has probably seen the same thing happen.

Perhaps there's some way to lock zoom at the maximum spot at which all the data is displayed or post a warning when the maximum is reached/exceeded?

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Quoting Patrap:
2012


2011



Hey Pat,
The comparable graphics really speaks loudly how warm the Gulf Winter Temps have been this year. People should not get overly excited tho about the current temp anomalies as they do usually balance out. IF and ONLY IF ElNino does come as fast as some are forecasting then Shear will be high in the Atlantic Basin giving a slower than Normal Season. But, It only takes one MAJOR and ONE STORM to be a very BAD SEASON.
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Quoting RitaEvac:





Don't worry it'll go around South Carolina just like the above map states. It's guaranteed


Lol, but I do not live in South Carolina, I live in Southeastern North Carolina, specifically in one of the biggest disaster counties in the state. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Last evening's tornado in Rome, GA, was an EF-1:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
308 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012


...PRELIMINARY TORNADO REPORT FOR FLOYD COUNTY FROM FEBRUARY 22 2012...

LOCATION: FLOYD COUNTY
RATING: EF-1
WIND SPEED: 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 3.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 75 YARDS
INJURIES: 0
DEATHS: 0 DIRECT, 1 INDIRECT
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN WAS IN THE CITY OF
ROME...JUST WEST OF THE MAPLEWOOD SUBDIVISION. EF-1 DAMAGE...CONSISTING
MOSTLY OF UPROOTED AND SNAPPED TREES...OCCURRED AS THE TORNADO
MOVED IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE TORNADO TRAVELED EAST
OF ROME AND NEARLY PARALLELED KINGSTON HIGHWAY...WHERE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS SUSTAINED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KINGSTON
HIGHWAY AND FREEMAN FERRY. AT THIS LOCATION...A SMALL STORE LOST A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS ROOF...AND THE ENTIRE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF
A SINGLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME. THE ONE INDIRECT FATALITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OCCURRED AT THIS LOCATION...WHEN A 75
-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AFTER THE STORM PASSED. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED TO PARALLEL KINGSTON HIGHWAY...UPROOTING NUMEROUS
TREES AND DAMAGING OR DESTROYING A COUPLE OF OUTBUILDINGS. THE
TORNADO WEAKENED TO AN EF-0 AND FINALLY LIFTED JUST EAST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF KINGSTON HIGHWAY AND MATHIS ROAD.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Right in the middle of it tomorrow, cool.






Don't worry it'll go around South Carolina just like the below map states. It's guaranteed

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Right in the middle of it tomorrow, cool.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Orlando...

A record rainfall of 0.88 inch(es) was set at Orlando yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 0.86 inch(es) set in 1990.
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SE TX

Very warm afternoon expected ahead of a strong cold front tonight.


Ongoing high wind event across west TX early this afternoon with TXDOT closing Guadalupe Pass due to wind gusts of 80mph and blowing dust reducing visibilities to less than 100 feet (100pm ob was W at 60g 76mph). Locally the upper level trough near Baja is providing an thickening mid and upper level deck of clouds over the region, but 100pm temperatures have already reached 85 at College Station and 83 at Huntsville under partly cloudy skies. Record highs may be tied or even fall across our northern counties this afternoon.


Strong cold front just entering the TX panhandle will plow off the TX coast tonight. Impressive capping noted on the morning CRP sounding will prevent much in the way of rainfall/thunderstorms will this front. Very strong pressure gradient and much colder weather will be in place on Friday. Northerly winds of 15-30mph will be likely and many locations (especially the coast) will likely meet wind advisory standards. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the lower 60%u2019s under strong cold air advection and some mid-high clouds. Afternoon RH on Friday and very strong winds are pointing toward Red Flag criteria, but recent wetting rains and general green-up of fine fuels should help mitigate the wildfire threat over SE TX.



Trough over NW MX will eject across S TX Friday night and Saturday with moisture being brought up and over the frontal slope. Current indications are that the main forcing and moisture will be across S TX (maybe as far north as Matagorda Bay), but the air mass over SE TX will be dry enough to preclude much if any of the rainfall from reaching the ground. Better chances on Friday night and Saturday will be limited south of Matagorda Bay and over the offshore water of the Gulf. Clouds on the other hand look to be more plentiful and will likely keep highs in the 50%u2019s for much of the day under continued northerly winds.


A warming trend with returning chances of rainfall into next week.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232021Z - 232145Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING THREAT.

SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW NWD RETREAT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SRN
IND/IL...WWD INTO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG I-70 OVER CNTRL MO.
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS A RAPIDLY EXPANDING SHIELD OF LOW-MID CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SRN IL/SWRN IND INTO
WRN KY. THIS CERTAINLY REFLECTS THE MOISTENING/ASCENT PROCESS THAT
SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG...HAS OVERSPREAD
WRN KY. IF THIS AIRMASS CAN ADVECT INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE PRIOR
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THEN AN ENHANCED RISK OF ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...COULD EVOLVE. LATEST
VIS IMAGERY DOES NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS HAVE
DEEPENED APPRECIABLY BUT CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
ENCOURAGE STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.