4 out of 5 Americans affected by weather-related disasters since 2006, study finds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2012

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Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."




Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jeff9614:
Dude i'm StormTracker2K, sorry i have multiple handles.


?? What who are you?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I have returned!

Forgot to mention earlier,, TC Hilwa is GONE
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You mean turn into a modern day North Korea by tanking our economy and alienating the rest of the world?

What ARE they teaching in schools these days? We are NOT self-sufficient, nor can we be. Our entire infrastructure depends on cheap energy, which would vanish in a flash if the rest of the world collectively embargoed our butts back to the stone age.

A little perspective can do wonders.


Allegedly, we have enough oil and natural gas reserves to last the U.S. for several hundred years if we kicked all the multi-national corporations out and just used our own resources. The known U.S. oil reserves alone would last the U.S. about 120 to 130 years at present consumption rates.

To maintain consumption levels, we'd need to cut illegal immigration, since immigration counts for about 90% of our population growth, and over half of all immigration is illegal immigration.

The U.K. and Europe currently steals much of our oil production through BP, since they own half of BP.

If we increased our own production and cut ties with the middle east oil mafia, we would be helping ourselves in several ways:

1) Jobs and money stay home.

2) No longer funding terrorism and rogue states through the Muslim oil states, which funnel money to Hamas, the Taliban, and Al Qaeda.

3) Because of 2 above, we could spend much less on military campaigns in the mid-east and Africa, and we would have little need for the 5th navy fleet.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it will get as high as some models are predicting, and it will be short-lived anyways. We'll already be on the downward trend back towards La Nina in November/December.


I'm going to save that comment for the future, thats a pretty bold prediction right there....
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Quoting Jeff9614:
Dude i'm StormTracker2K, sorry i have multiple handles.
Do you have multiple personalities.?..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
This will be interesting....................PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
751 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 26 2012 - 12Z WED FEB 29 2012

AS A POSITIVE ANOMALY RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM 40N 140W THROUGH
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ENERGY RELOADING THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL START TAKING A MORE COASTAL ROUTE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND ON AN EAST-NORTHEAST
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.

EARLY ON...CHOSE A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO TIMING/DEPTH ISSUES WITH THE
NORTHEASTERN SYSTEM PER REASONING WITHIN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION /PMDHMD/. AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE
00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...SO
USED A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE 00Z GFS BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS...SO
TRANSITIONED TO A 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION DID SPEED UP/SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH ALSO SPED UP ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONTS PROGRESSION....BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED REASONABLE
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS SIMPLIFY THE ABOVE BY A USE OF 00Z ECMWF
AND GSF ENS MEANS. GREATEST MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR DAYS 6-7 WITH
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF. USE OF ENS MEANS TONES DOWN THE
AMPLICATION AND TIMING OF UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVES AT H500 AND SFC
WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. 06Z GFS HAS SHOWN A STRONG TREND
TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7 TAKING A SHORTWAVE AND
AND SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION BY DAY 7 WED.

POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
ANMD MONDAY
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it will get as high as some models are predicting, and it will be short-lived anyways. We'll already be on the downward trend back towards La Nina in November/December.


God, no! I can't take a 3rd La Nina winter in a row! I want snow!

Guess I better pin my hopes on NAO.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what is that
Looks like the the time warp tunnel from the movie The Final Countdown.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Quoting Xyrus2000:


If it's a modiki, then it will be far from boring.
Modiki,,,Sounds like a drink...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
I think the rainy season has already hit louisiana
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


europe is in trouble because we are in trouble...United Staes in trouble = world in trouble...i say cut them all off and EFF china if they want their money come get it!!! we have anough peolpe and land to be self sustainable we dont need anyone elses goods.


You mean turn into a modern day North Korea by tanking our economy and alienating the rest of the world?

What ARE they teaching in schools these days? We are NOT self-sufficient, nor can we be. Our entire infrastructure depends on cheap energy, which would vanish in a flash if the rest of the world collectively embargoed our butts back to the stone age.

A little perspective can do wonders.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:



This is true.

Oh and if you are interested in 3rd party views and seeing if there are parties with moderate views but are suppressed by mainstream media, look up Libertarianism. I am in good agreement with their views on political issues and think that I will be voting for their candidate this fall...


Libertarians are not moderate. They think government is the problem and free markets are the solution. I agree with their ideals of personal liberty but strongly disagree with the means they propose to accomplish it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So it appears that El niño is forming rather quickly.That obviously means for the 1,000,000,000 time that the season will be....boring.I expect el niño to be with us by the fall.


If it's a modiki, then it will be far from boring.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A bit of good news for people living across the South...the Storm Prediction Center has lowered the Severe probability down to the regular Slight risk numbers (15%), as it now appears conditions will not be as prime as they appeared to be for Thursday as they did yesterday. Regardless, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all likely.

Yes..Plus there is not abundant moisture streaming up from the gulf into the rapid moving systems. Not that there is no moisture present however. And this could be interesting CMC 144 hours out.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Gents, i now leave to fill my stomach.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Morning.
Hoping for my supercell today,(I am barely in the 5% tornado risk). Looks like you wont get your bow echo after all. :(


why u say that? i am deep in the day 3 5% range, almost on the 15% line, and the text is reassuring:)

so maybe!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not surprised it really is much more sticky here in C FL today. Even looks like we could get some thunderstorms this afternoon.



Agreed, these shortwave type events in the winter tend to often get down played as far as rain chances go, but convection is already popping nicely over the Central Gulf. I would would expect a pretty good coverage by later today into evening.
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Quoting Jeff9614:
Looks like the FL rainy season will be here soon. Talked to the folks at NWS Melbourne and they confirmed. Wet pattern to unfold people!


Bro its February the rainy season isn't on its way yet, hold your horses. Also, don't put words in the mouth of NWS Melbourne because I know for sure they didn't tell you that because they wouldn't...
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Quoting SPLbeater:
mornin all


Morning.
Hoping for my supercell today,(I am barely in the 5% tornado risk). Looks like you wont get your bow echo after all. :(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
818. MahFL
Quoting MAweatherboy1:Some pretty strong wording in this discussion by the SPC...


That's pretty mild, just wait to see the words on a HIGH risk day.
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mornin all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Meanwhile off the cost of South Africa

Link


what is that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It does not matter how "active" the 2012 Hurricane season, as much as the steering currents. It only takes one land falling Hurricane to cause some serious problems.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook:



NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...TN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY...
BROAD AND FAST CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF
THE NATION...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FIRST SUCH TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN KY/TN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TN/SOUTHERN KY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA/NC/SC. PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME RISK THAT CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.


...TN/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...RESULTING IN
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL/GA WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM SFC
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG
. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN AL/GA...WITH ONLY A FEW
OPERATIONAL MODELS DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE SOUTH. THIS CORRIDOR
OVER NORTHERN AL/GA WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM...WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.


...FL...
GRADUAL MOISTENING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG. MODEL SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A LOW RISK OF BOW/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.


..HART/ROGERS.. 02/22/2012
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


Not surprised it really is much more sticky here in C FL today. Even looks like we could get some thunderstorms this afternoon.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I really have to disagree with you. 8 to 12 systems this year is my prediction as we could have El-Nino before the start of hurricane season.


I would put my guess around 10-12, though dry air and shear have played big roles in the last two years we had good conditions, but those two factors crippled many storms. As nuts as it's been with the patterns we've had lately for the Atlantic seasons, anything can happen this season.

I am particularly worried about the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this season, shear could play a less role here and the Gulf of Mexico is a furnace. "If" we see the same warming rates as the last two seasons down there we could areas flirting with 95 degree water temps.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook:



NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...TN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY...
BROAD AND FAST CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF
THE NATION...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FIRST SUCH TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN KY/TN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TN/SOUTHERN KY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA/NC/SC. PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME RISK THAT CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.


...TN/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...RESULTING IN
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL/GA WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM SFC
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG
. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN AL/GA...WITH ONLY A FEW
OPERATIONAL MODELS DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE SOUTH. THIS CORRIDOR
OVER NORTHERN AL/GA WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM...WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.


...FL...
GRADUAL MOISTENING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG. MODEL SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A LOW RISK OF BOW/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.


..HART/ROGERS.. 02/22/2012
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Gotta run....everyone have a great day!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You are correct about the TradeWinds look at the Atlantic Side i posted this a couple of days ago....






With the above Shear.....Don't be surprised to get a very early storm in the Caribbean before the Shear becomes higher again with ElNino.......Remember when ESNO is NEUTRAL...thata not be a good thing for the Tropical Atlantic.....We really need a quick turn around to ElNino for increased Shear in the Atlantic as Neutral tends to lead to fairly quite Shear Conditions in the Atlantic as does LaNina!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't say below average....I'd say average or slightly above average.


I disagree with ya sorry...if we are in ElNino it will be below average. At least History shows that anyways.
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Quoting GiavannaDatoli:

I am. Because that means only 99 days left of having to put up with his radical, extreme left-wing socialism agenda he tries to shove down everyone's throat. Yippee!

Please hurricane season, get here!
And yet a third spelling of that particular sockpuppet! Come profondamente ossessionata! Si tratta di una persona rara che esibisce tale gelosia!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13469
Quoting StormTracker2K:
You can already see that the trade winds have really slackened across the equatorial Pacific. TampaSpin don't be surprised if this is a very strang El-Nino in the making.



You are correct about the TradeWinds look at the Atlantic Side i posted this a couple of days ago....




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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't say below average....I'd say average or slightly above average.


I really have to disagree with you. 8 to 12 systems this year is my prediction as we could have El-Nino before the start of hurricane season.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
You can already see that the trade winds have really slackened across the equatorial Pacific. TampaSpin don't be surprised if this is a very strong El-Nino in the making.


I doubt it will get as high as some models are predicting, and it will be short-lived anyways. We'll already be on the downward trend back towards La Nina in November/December.
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Closeup of Western Hemisphere. All factors are converging on average to below average 2012 Atlantic season.


I wouldn't say below average....I'd say average or slightly above average.
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You can already see that the trade winds have really slackened across the equatorial Pacific. TampaSpin don't be surprised if this is a very strong El-Nino in the making.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting JRRP:
MSLP


Closeup of Western Hemisphere. All factors are converging on average to below average 2012 Atlantic season.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Don't count on it. As we are heading toward EL-NINO very fast right now. In fact this maybe the fastest transtion to El-Nino since 1997. This also could be Doc's next blog entry as this is extreme to see such an increase in SST's off South America in such a short amount of time.


I don't believe it would be all that extreme! Hopefully if we make it to full ElNino then we will likely have a very quite Atlantic Hurricane Season. I'll take that!
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Quoting JRRP:



Wow,another model besides CFSv2 going warm in a fast way.

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Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Meanwhile off the cost of South Africa

Link




Myth that water drains clockwise in the southern hemisphere: Busted!
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Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Meanwhile off the cost of South Africa

Link




I was reading the comments on this and saw a comment from new zealand that read:
"what is counterclockwise? Dont they mean anticlockwise?"
Just shows how different america is from the rest of the british descent english world
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
From Storm2K


Another big jump towards El Nino by the Summer is now forecast by CFSv2. IMO,I think ENSO has reached a point with this CPC update and the models going warm that is almost inevitable a El Nino is comming by the Summer.And that will knock down the numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The question is if El Nino will remain weak,or it will turn Moderate to Strong at some point,and if that is the case,then the hurricane season really will not be active. But as we know,it only takes one to do all the harm,even if the season is benign.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Meanwhile off the cost of South Africa

Link


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Quoting wunderweatherman123:

we have a better chance of neutral than el nino. right now this huge warming is temporarary but an el nino is not out of the question. i still think warm neutral


Don't count on it. As we are heading toward EL-NINO very fast right now. In fact this maybe the fastest transtion to El-Nino since 1997. This also could be Doc's next blog entry as this is extreme to see such an increase in SST's off South America in such a short amount of time.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
A bit of good news for people living across the South...the Storm Prediction Center has lowered the Severe probability down to the regular Slight risk numbers (15%), as it now appears conditions will not be as prime as they appeared to be for Thursday as they did yesterday. Regardless, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all likely.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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