4 out of 5 Americans affected by weather-related disasters since 2006, study finds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2012

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Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."




Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.

Jeff Masters

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(Mod.) Haha. TWA beat me to it!
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 33
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF FOCUSED DCVA ATTENDANT TO POTENT MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
LIMITED...CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS IS YIELDING
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA ARE CURRENTLY EXHIBITING A VEER-BACK-VEER
SIGNATURE WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE EVOLUTION OF MORE ROBUST
SUPERCELL-TYPE STRUCTURES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR DOES EXIST FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
GIVEN THE STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...RESPECTIVELY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25045.


...MEAD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting hydrus:
Its true...I love the Carolinas very, very much....Thanx for remembering me


nobody likes a smarta...leck..
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Quoting JNCali:
Not enough folks live there to be disaster-ed I think..


hahaha! disatered
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
136. wxmod
Quoting trunkmonkey:



this environment stuff makes me want to puke!
Lets talk real weather issues, like the El Nino` that's developing, look at the H2O temps off the coast of South America, warming up quickly!


You amaze me constantly. Last time I looked outside I saw the environment and the weather in one place. Where do you picture the environment is?
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123. Idude
You are absolutely correct that rising populations expose more people to weather-related disasters... but Dr. M. was referring to an increase in such disasters by county. Unlike human population, the number of counties is not increasing, and yet a greater proportion of them is being impacted by extreme weather.

I'm curious what exactly in Jeff Master's blog post proves an increase in weather disaster by county. Maybe something I missed at the link.
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Just report and ignore the obsessed troll. That's my motto. (Yeah, I do occasionally break that rule myself; mea culpa.)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Above-Normal Tornado Amounts Expected in 2012

Following a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011, an active severe weather season with above-normal tornadoes is expected in 2012.

There were 1,709 tornadoes in 2011, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004. In comparison, the average number of tornadoes over the past decade is around 1,300.
Last year ranks as the fourth most deadly tornado year ever recorded in the United States.
In 2011, there was a very strong La Nina, a phenomenon where the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator are below normal. As a result, there was a very strong jet stream, which is a key ingredient for severe weather.

Often in a La Nina year, the "Tornado Alley" shifts to the east, spanning the Gulf states, including Mississippi and Alabama, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. During the extremely active severe weather season of 2011, many tornadoes touched down east of the typical "Tornado Alley," which stretches from Texas to Kansas. Twisters frequently hit Texas to Kansas during the spring as warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico clashes with drier air coming out of the Rockies.
Above-normal tornadoes are anticipated again this year.
Warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water is a key component to the active severe weather season anticipated in 2012. There will be a sufficient supply of warm and humid air to fuel supercell thunderstorms, the type of storms that spawn strong tornadoes, because of the warm Gulf water.

The weak to moderate La Nina during this winter is much weaker compared to last winter, and it is weakening even more now. There is evidence that warming is occurring in the equatorial Pacific, so the El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to turn neutral by April. In other words, the temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will be near normal by spring.
"Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year," AccuWeather.com Exert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said regarding the difference in pattern.
The mid-Mississippi and upper Ohio valleys are among the zones that may get hit more frequently by severe weather this year. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan are included in this zone.
It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year. However, there could be some damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Gulf states this season.

The Deep South, including the Gulf States and eastern Texas, is expected to get hit by severe weather early in the season, mainly in March. By early April, the severe weather threat will retreat to the north, reaching the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, according to Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
"If I were in the South or Ohio Valley, I'd be extra prepared this year," Mike Smith, senior vice president of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions cautioned.

Whether tornadoes hit highly populated areas like they did last year is harder to pinpoint.
"There is no way to know if it (2012) will be as active as last year. Last year we had two unfortunate occurrences simultaneously: a larger-than-normal number of tornadoes plus tornadoes hitting densely populated areas. There is no way to know if the cities are going to be hit in the same number as last year. If so, it could be another deadly year," Smith said.



deaths and costs correlate with the shift from the traditional tornado alley to dixie/ohio/carolina alley...when this shift happen which it does often in la nina years there are going to be more deaths and costly damages due to the fact there are much more population centers scattered closer together than in tornado alley. If the average number of tornadoes hit traditional tornado alley deaths and costs would be low still while the same amount of tornados hit dixie alley way more deaths and costs
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Too many Marines in S. & N. Carolina, so Mother Nature gives it a wide berth seems.

:O
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Just an average day on the blog I see?
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Quoting ldude:
Oh jeeez, c'mon Dr Jeff - how 'bout some perspective on the real problem besides grabbing straws, desperately seeking attribution to climate change with every opportunity... when we all know humans replicating like rabbits, while we displace the rabbit and it's habitat with all that comes with the prodigious expansion of the human footprint is why those numbers affected by one disaster after another will CONTINUE RISING regardless what we do about our fossil fuel emissions...

Here ya go - I'm sure you're familiar with the studies of Chris Landsea, Roger Pielke, Jr, others that contributed to earthobservatory.nasa report - "The Rising Cost of Natural Hazards"

"The %u201CNature%u201D of the Problem: Population and Natural Disasters

Between 1950 and 2003, the world%u2019s population grew from an estimated 2.5 billion to 6.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More people are affected by natural disasters today because there are more people in the world to be affected. But beyond basic statistics, natural disasters may be getting more expensive because more people are building more expensive infrastructure in areas that are prone to natural disasters, like coastal areas, fire-prone forests, steep mountain slopes, and riverbanks. If disasters are having a greater impact today, says Patzert, the culprit is not Mother Nature, it%u2019s human nature."

Indeed, when I was born in 1953, my addition helped bring world population numbers to 2.68 billion... and in this relatively short span of 58 years those numbers have far more than doubled (nearly tripled) to over 7 billion as of Oct 31 2011... THAT alarming rate and the increased human footprint, direct habitat loss / land use conversion and it's associated negative impacts that a plethora of studies have proved beyond doubt, plus the greater demand for food / water, jobs, etc causes me a heckuva lot more concern!

Hmmmmmm, strikes me odd... this frequent practice of selective denialism... often by many who rant on against certain other denialists... In the end, there's plenty of blame and equal finger-pointing to go around - if one dares to be honest and open with the facts.

But, good day anyway to ya.


You are absolutely correct that rising populations expose more people to weather-related disasters... but Dr. M. was referring to an increase in such disasters by county. Unlike human population, the number of counties is not increasing, and yet a greater proportion of them is being impacted by extreme weather.


Human population increases in those counties contribute to it, more homes, more businesses, add up to bigger disaster in $$ and people
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Quoting presslord:
South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006.

That's because God loves us extra special
Not enough folks live there to be disaster-ed I think..
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Quoting presslord:
South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006.

That's because God loves us extra special
Its true...I love the Carolinas very, very much....Thanx for remembering me
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Quoting presslord:
South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006.

That's because God loves us extra special


But then there is Rick Santorum, another example of how so The Universe has it's "Novelty" everywhere.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting RitaEvac:


Economic Ramifications

...
Don't believe the calculations and assurances from Washington. In the event of a blockade, the price of oil will, in our calculation, increase by over $50. Either that, or we have learnt to shake off our dependency on oil-if that's possible.


All you have to do is keep tabs on the Oil execs.. when you see them all start to step down or retire at once.. then worry.. They have unlimited resources and will not allow anything serious to happen to their income stream.. If Iran is a genuine threat, then expect what happened in some of the other countries in that region to happen to them.. jmho
Beautiful day here in Mid TN.. enjoyed the 2 hours of light snow yesterday morning and it looks like no severe wx in the forecast for now.. time to refresh the sweet tea!
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


Good day, Ellen
LOL, well Nea is a good contributor to this blog and while we differ in opinion on some issues, I'm sure he'd agree with some of it... or maybe not, lol... He'll likely object to my objections on Jeff's implied correlation, ha, ha...
LOL. Yeah, just some of us manage to cuss and discuss minus the "cuss" and some don't.
:)
***

Keep your eye on the dryline, youngins. Maybe we'll see some low-topped supercells in the next little bit.
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Quoting presslord:
South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006.

That's because God loves us extra special
happy monday to ya press
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123. ldude
Oh jeeez, c'mon Dr Jeff - how 'bout some perspective on the real problem besides grabbing straws, desperately seeking attribution to climate change with every opportunity... when we all know humans replicating like rabbits, while we displace the rabbit and it's habitat with all that comes with the prodigious expansion of the human footprint is why those numbers affected by one disaster after another will CONTINUE RISING regardless what we do about our fossil fuel emissions...

Here ya go - I'm sure you're familiar with the studies of Chris Landsea, Roger Pielke, Jr, others that contributed to earthobservatory.nasa report - "The Rising Cost of Natural Hazards"

"The “Nature” of the Problem: Population and Natural Disasters

Between 1950 and 2003, the world’s population grew from an estimated 2.5 billion to 6.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More people are affected by natural disasters today because there are more people in the world to be affected. But beyond basic statistics, natural disasters may be getting more expensive because more people are building more expensive infrastructure in areas that are prone to natural disasters, like coastal areas, fire-prone forests, steep mountain slopes, and riverbanks. If disasters are having a greater impact today, says Patzert, the culprit is not Mother Nature, it’s human nature."

Indeed, when I was born in 1953, my addition helped bring world population numbers to 2.68 billion... and in this relatively short span of 58 years those numbers have far more than doubled (nearly tripled) to over 7 billion as of Oct 31 2011... THAT alarming rate and the increased human footprint, direct habitat loss / land use conversion and it's associated negative impacts that a plethora of studies have proved beyond doubt, plus the greater demand for food / water, jobs, etc causes me a heckuva lot more concern!

Hmmmmmm, strikes me odd... this frequent practice of selective denialism... often by many who rant on against certain other denialists... In the end, there's plenty of blame and equal finger-pointing to go around - if one dares to be honest and open with the facts.

But, good day anyway to ya.


You are absolutely correct that rising populations expose more people to weather-related disasters... but Dr. M. was referring to an increase in such disasters by county. Unlike human population, the number of counties is not increasing, and yet a greater proportion of them is being impacted by extreme weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006.

That's because God loves us extra special
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Quoting EllenPettit:



That was unnecessary....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
117. You all know the drill,

Just flag and ignore.

And also, everyone generally knew from what I saw that for the most part the USA would have an above average winter thanks to the 2nd year La Nina episode.
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Quoting EllenPettit:

Doc, I like your perspective, but Neapolitan just refreshed the page and saw it. Expect and very long, drawn out rebuttal to this in approximately 20 - 40 minutes from now. Be ready. Just my thinking because I have been observing his behavior the past couple days.


Good day, Ellen
LOL, well Nea is a good contributor to this blog and while we differ in opinion on some issues, I'm sure he'd agree with some of it... or maybe not, lol... He'll likely object to my objections on Jeff's implied correlation, ha, ha...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4799
Quoting NaplesWebDesigner56:

What event? Please tell me you are not referring to the December end of the world date? LMAO. The blogger TemplesOfSyrinxC4 says that the Mayans were nothing more than a bunch of cannabalistic mongrels. This isn't true, is it?


yes its true
they ate there enemies and others for ritual purposes too
but there intellect far exceeded anyone of the time then and now of the timekeeping of the universe
even to this day the time keeping is on the mark as it was then it is now
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
Oh jeeez, c'mon Dr Jeff - how 'bout some perspective on the real problem besides grabbing straws, desperately seeking attribution to climate change with every opportunity... when we all know humans replicating like rabbits, while we displace the rabbit and it's habitat with all that comes with the prodigious expansion of the human footprint is why those numbers affected by one disaster after another will CONTINUE RISING regardless what we do about our fossil fuel emissions...

Here ya go - I'm sure you're familiar with the studies of Chris Landsea, Roger Pielke, Jr, others that contributed to earthobservatory.nasa report - "The Rising Cost of Natural Hazards"

"The %u201CNature%u201D of the Problem: Population and Natural Disasters

Between 1950 and 2003, the world%u2019s population grew from an estimated 2.5 billion to 6.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More people are affected by natural disasters today because there are more people in the world to be affected. But beyond basic statistics, natural disasters may be getting more expensive because more people are building more expensive infrastructure in areas that are prone to natural disasters, like coastal areas, fire-prone forests, steep mountain slopes, and riverbanks. If disasters are having a greater impact today, says Patzert, the culprit is not Mother Nature, it%u2019s human nature."


Indeed, when I was born in 1953, my addition helped bring world population numbers to 2.68 billion... and in this relatively short span of 58 years those numbers have far more than doubled (nearly tripled) to over 7 billion as of Oct 31 2011... THAT alarming rate and the increased human footprint, direct habitat loss / land use conversion and it's associated negative impacts that a plethora of studies have proved beyond doubt, plus the greater demand for food / water, jobs, etc causes me a heckuva lot more concern!

Hmmmmmm, strikes me odd... this frequent practice of selective denialism... often by many who rant on against certain other denialists... In the end, there's plenty of blame and equal finger-pointing to go around - if one dares to be honest and open with the facts.

But, good day anyway to ya.
Good point Doc, but Dr. Masters wasn't denying any of that. You say he's selectively denying it, when really he just didn't mention it. I agree he's probably excluding that information to avoid getting away from the point he's trying to make, but I disagree that he's denying the many problems we will face with overpopulation.
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Above-Normal Tornado Amounts Expected in 2012

Following a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011, an active severe weather season with above-normal tornadoes is expected in 2012.

There were 1,709 tornadoes in 2011, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004. In comparison, the average number of tornadoes over the past decade is around 1,300.
Last year ranks as the fourth most deadly tornado year ever recorded in the United States.
In 2011, there was a very strong La Nina, a phenomenon where the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator are below normal. As a result, there was a very strong jet stream, which is a key ingredient for severe weather.

Often in a La Nina year, the "Tornado Alley" shifts to the east, spanning the Gulf states, including Mississippi and Alabama, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. During the extremely active severe weather season of 2011, many tornadoes touched down east of the typical "Tornado Alley," which stretches from Texas to Kansas. Twisters frequently hit Texas to Kansas during the spring as warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico clashes with drier air coming out of the Rockies.
Above-normal tornadoes are anticipated again this year.
Warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water is a key component to the active severe weather season anticipated in 2012. There will be a sufficient supply of warm and humid air to fuel supercell thunderstorms, the type of storms that spawn strong tornadoes, because of the warm Gulf water.

The weak to moderate La Nina during this winter is much weaker compared to last winter, and it is weakening even more now. There is evidence that warming is occurring in the equatorial Pacific, so the El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to turn neutral by April. In other words, the temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will be near normal by spring.
"Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year," AccuWeather.com Exert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said regarding the difference in pattern.
The mid-Mississippi and upper Ohio valleys are among the zones that may get hit more frequently by severe weather this year. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan are included in this zone.
It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year. However, there could be some damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Gulf states this season.

The Deep South, including the Gulf States and eastern Texas, is expected to get hit by severe weather early in the season, mainly in March. By early April, the severe weather threat will retreat to the north, reaching the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, according to Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
"If I were in the South or Ohio Valley, I'd be extra prepared this year," Mike Smith, senior vice president of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions cautioned.

Whether tornadoes hit highly populated areas like they did last year is harder to pinpoint.
"There is no way to know if it (2012) will be as active as last year. Last year we had two unfortunate occurrences simultaneously: a larger-than-normal number of tornadoes plus tornadoes hitting densely populated areas. There is no way to know if the cities are going to be hit in the same number as last year. If so, it could be another deadly year," Smith said.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting BigTuna:


Not for nothing, this is probably why you hold such a crazy belief. Be willing to have your convictions tested and be willing to be admit to yourself - if no one else - when you're wrong. Of course NOLA is in a bad place. Of course it's going to be more expensive in the long run to protect and maintain. But seriously believing and advocating for the abandonment of an entire city because it's just too hard? Is that becoming the new American motto?


im not wrong im just done with you!
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572


Economic Ramifications

A blockade in the strait means a halt to 17 million barrels of oil passing through it. Thus, twenty percent of world's oil would stagnate, which would, in turn, send northward the already high oil prices.
In case of supply disruptions, oil price could increase by $20 to $30 a barrel, the International Monetary Fund has said. A cut in Iranian exports could be exacerbated by below average oil stocks in many countries, the IMF warns. It has to be noted that similar disruption in Libya, not long ago, pushed the oil prices well over $100 a barrel.
Some analysts estimate the price rise to be over 300 per cent. Apocryphal, maybe. But then, even with half the estimated price rise, the economies which are slowly recovering (the latest US jobs report show positive signs with 243,000 jobs added in January, with unemployment figures at 8.3%, the lowest in three years) would be hurled back to panic mode. (Even otherwise, if you notice, any news from Iran sends the oil investors to a hyper overactive mode. That is, in spite of ground realities).



Don't believe the calculations and assurances from Washington. In the event of a blockade, the price of oil will, in our calculation, increase by over $50. Either that, or we have learnt to shake off our dependency on oil-if that's possible.
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Quoting NaplesWebDesigner56:

Hey, time for that beer. Whatcha think, Thomas? It's a nice day today and my class will probably get out early?
you sound familiar lol
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


No he doesn't. He has no background in cosmology nor has any deep understanding of the mechanics of the universe. Every objection he makes to the current expansionary model of the universe has been refuted in the literature on the subject.


No it hasn't.

The big bang model isn't hard to comprehend, Xyrus.

Your problem is you don't recognize the FACT that a person can comprehend a THEORY and at the same time disagree with it.

BB theory in a nutshell:

Everything, including space and time, expanded out of an infinitesmally small point with infinite density at time T=0.


Get over it.

He has misapplied several logical constructs, and when presented with such facts/evidence/research that contradicts his statements, he falls back to religion as a defense. Once someone bring religion into a scientific discussion, the discussion becomes completely useless and a waste of time.


Ah, there's your problem.

You believe you get to set the terms of discussion based on some contrived set of rules that are not necessarily absolute.

You are also hypocrite, since the founders of all of modern science were creationists.

"Newton saw a monotheistic God as the masterful creator whose existence could not be denied in the face of the grandeur of all creation." - Wiki.

"A universe with a God would look quite different from a universe without one. A physics, a biology where there is a God is bound to look different. So the most basic claims of religion are scientific. Religion is a scientific theory." - Richard Dawkins

Read more: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/r/richar d_dawkins.html#ixzz1mxCimvCc

This is basically why I don't bother discussing such topics with him, or any member who falls back on the religion as a logical defense in scientific argument. There's no salient method for disproving someone who bases their arguments on faith. There is no logical counterpoint to "God did it!".

Willful ignorance and blind faith add neither insight or value.


I do not possess willful ignorance, and oppose it in every way. Try again.

"I am against religion because it teaches us to be satisfied with not understanding the world." -Richard Dawkins

Here, I would disagree with Dawkins whole heartedly.

Religion in no way teaches people to be satisfied with not understanding the world.

I already quoted it earlier today, let's see.

"Wisdom is the principle thing, therefore get wisdom and with all your getting, get understanding."

Does that sound like it came from the mouth of someone who didn't try to understand the world?

Read the Proverbs and Ecclesiastes, Solomon was in every way an experimentalist, to the point that his obsession with knowledge by experience is part of what destroyed him.

The difference is the atheists demand the believer deny what they know to be true.

It is precisely because I believe in God that makes me interested in understanding the world.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting BigTuna:


"Keep New Orleans dry? Screw that, it's nice outside!"



;)


Wonder if this guy was thinking about licking something else.
A new book came out the 18 year old intern wrote a book about this guy!
Another guy wrote a book about how this guy had all charges dropped on Dr.MLK, in return for supporting this guy for the president, well well, all charges were dropped, and this guy was elected president, and it was the beginning of the end of the majority of blacks in the Republican party!
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Check this.. Dutch scientists I'm sure due to lack of sunny weather have so much time on their hands that they have come up with a way to grow cow muscle in in the lab.. according to the article it is way more efficient than actually raising a cow.. I hate to think of someone discovering that human muscle can be even easier and cheaper to grow ?! :/
article Link
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Since when was a strong summer storm, or experiencing some outer bands of a tropical storm a weather "disaster"?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks, Dr. Masters. I posted a few snippets and graphics from that fascinating and disturbing Environment America report last week, but didn't hear much back from people. The fact is, as numerous independent studies have shown, the rapidly-changing climate is wreaking havoc with our weather, and it's pretty clear that it's going to be getting a whole lot worse before it even begins to think about getting better; I imagine the 2040 version of the map above will be a sold mass of reds and purples...




this environment stuff makes me want to puke!
Lets talk real weather issues, like the El Nino` that's developing, look at the H2O temps off the coast of South America, warming up quickly!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh jeeez, c'mon Dr Jeff - how 'bout some perspective on the real problem besides grabbing straws, desperately seeking attribution to climate change with every opportunity... when we all know humans replicating like rabbits, while we displace the rabbit and it's habitat with all that comes with the prodigious expansion of the human footprint is why those numbers affected by one disaster after another will CONTINUE RISING regardless what we do about our fossil fuel emissions...

Here ya go - I'm sure you're familiar with the studies of Chris Landsea, Roger Pielke, Jr, others that contributed to earthobservatory.nasa report - "The Rising Cost of Natural Hazards"

"The “Nature” of the Problem: Population and Natural Disasters

Between 1950 and 2003, the world’s population grew from an estimated 2.5 billion to 6.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More people are affected by natural disasters today because there are more people in the world to be affected. But beyond basic statistics, natural disasters may be getting more expensive because more people are building more expensive infrastructure in areas that are prone to natural disasters, like coastal areas, fire-prone forests, steep mountain slopes, and riverbanks. If disasters are having a greater impact today, says Patzert, the culprit is not Mother Nature, it’s human nature."


Indeed, when I was born in 1953, my addition helped bring world population numbers to 2.68 billion... and in this relatively short span of 58 years those numbers have far more than doubled (nearly tripled) to over 7 billion as of Oct 31 2011... THAT alarming rate and the increased human footprint, direct habitat loss / land use conversion and it's associated negative impacts that a plethora of studies have proved beyond doubt, plus the greater demand for food / water, jobs, etc causes me a heckuva lot more concern!

Hmmmmmm, strikes me odd... this frequent practice of selective denialism... often by many who rant on against certain other denialists... In the end, there's plenty of blame and equal finger-pointing to go around - if one dares to be honest and open with the facts.

But, good day anyway to ya.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4799
Quoting TampaSpin:
4042 11/04 Virginia Earthquake


The above was declared a disaster by FEMA.....YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING....WOW

This stuff is completely Flawed!


When did earthquakes become weather disasters? Or did I miss something?

WTO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard



"Keep New Orleans dry? Screw that, it's nice outside!"



;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK TO N
CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201939Z - 202045Z

CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WW POSSIBLE.

LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE A ZONE OF SLOW
DESTABILIZATION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OK INTO N TX...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING WRN KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION
EXPANDING ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THIS
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MORE MIXED AIRMASS WHERE SURFACE
FLOW HAS VEERED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOW APPROACHING CENTRAL OK/S
CENTRAL KS...EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT -- NEARER TO THIS EVOLVING SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT THE SURFACE -- UPPER 40S OR LESS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION -- AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO...OR EVEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY. THUS...EXPECTED MODEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE THE RESULT OF WARM SECTOR HEATING WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT...COMBINED WITH THE EWD SPREAD OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS
VERY COLD /-20S C/ MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM.

STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE VEERING/SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WITHIN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
SCATTERED/SMALL/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIMITED CAPE. GIVEN THE WARMING/MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HAIL IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR LOCAL WIND DAMAGE...WITH WIND
THREAT BECOMING ENHANCED IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
CAN OCCUR. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE/INTENSIFY...AND
THUS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING OF POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 02/20/2012


Thanks for posting that. Usually I check the SPC every morning. My OCD must be slip-sliding away. lol There is a weird, cold S wind out there which might bode something happening.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting BigTuna:


Not for nothing, this is probably why you hold such a crazy belief. Be willing to have your convictions tested and be willing to be admit to yourself - if no one else - when you're wrong. Of course NOLA is in a bad place. Of course it's going to be more expensive in the long run to protect and maintain. But seriously believing and advocating for the abandonment of an entire city because it's just too hard? Is that becoming the new American motto?


We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


First... I'm smart enough to not live on an island a few feet above sea level where hurricanes hit on average. 2nd... I'm smart enough not to own 9 acres because that would cost me more in property taxes and I hate paying taxes. 3rd....I have no interest in stocks because it is flawed....4th....I don't tell anybody my wealth......and Finally......I am here to see that the event takes place and it happens by the end of this year as we approach winter....


I knew I liked you! Now I know why. Well said!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yesh i know the french quater and the nicer parts of town are above sea level, the parts that were flooded will continue to flood, by hurricanes or plain heavy rains every few decades, so just let it go and stop wasting money on a lost cause


I really think that most taxpayers would agree with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


ok bye bye!


Not for nothing, this is probably why you hold such a crazy belief. Be willing to have your convictions tested and be willing to be admit to yourself - if no one else - when you're wrong. Of course NOLA is in a bad place. Of course it's going to be more expensive in the long run to protect and maintain. But seriously believing and advocating for the abandonment of an entire city because it's just too hard? Is that becoming the new American motto?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NaplesWebDesigner56:

What event? Please tell me you are not referring to the December end of the world date? LMAO. The blogger TemplesOfSyrinxC4 says that the Mayans were nothing more than a bunch of cannabalistic mongrels. This isn't true, is it?


Of course not, it's the fact everything in the universe such as our galaxy will align perfectly for the perfect storm of events...ever heard of Pandora's box
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK TO N
CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201939Z - 202045Z

CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WW POSSIBLE.

LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE A ZONE OF SLOW
DESTABILIZATION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OK INTO N TX...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING WRN KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION
EXPANDING ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT THIS
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MORE MIXED AIRMASS WHERE SURFACE
FLOW HAS VEERED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOW APPROACHING CENTRAL OK/S
CENTRAL KS...EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT -- NEARER TO THIS EVOLVING SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT THE SURFACE -- UPPER 40S OR LESS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION -- AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO...OR EVEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY. THUS...EXPECTED MODEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE THE RESULT OF WARM SECTOR HEATING WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT...COMBINED WITH THE EWD SPREAD OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS
VERY COLD /-20S C/ MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM.

STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE VEERING/SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WITHIN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
SCATTERED/SMALL/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIMITED CAPE. GIVEN THE WARMING/MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HAIL IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR LOCAL WIND DAMAGE...WITH WIND
THREAT BECOMING ENHANCED IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
CAN OCCUR. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE/INTENSIFY...AND
THUS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING OF POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 02/20/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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