4 out of 5 Americans affected by weather-related disasters since 2006, study finds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2012

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Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."




Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
It's very rare, but it's happened. For instance, the mesoscale complex that spawned the very destructive Jerrell, Texas, tornado was moving from the northeast to the southwest.


Beat me to it. That one left slabs, and slabs alone. Also was a very slow moving storm.
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Quoting snotly:
The real question is, what is the % of reflected sunlight with more clouds, that is, if there will be more clouds.


Yes good Question.

Also, 1/4 of 2010 was La Nina, 2011 was La Nina and looks like 1/3 of 2012. 2010 and 2011 had few CONUS land-falling hurricane. What will 2012 be like?
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The real question is, what is the % of reflected sunlight with more clouds, that is, if there will be more clouds.

Quoting AussieStorm:

warm water also expands, so it will be more water and expanding water. also the atmosphere can only hold so much moisture.
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Quoting LargoFl:
I have a question, might be stupid sounding but..with the icecaps melting the sea's will rise, But..with the warmer temps, wont evaporation increase as well, keeping sea level rise lower?

warm water also expands, so it will be more water and expanding water. also the atmosphere can only hold so much moisture.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I have no idea, but running under underpasses use to be quite common until weather authorities actively dissuaded people from doing that.


The dissuasion largely a result of the May 3-4, 1999 severe events.

February 19-25, 2012 is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Oklahoma (and Texas).
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
Quoting hydrus:
If Antarctica melts, the stock I have in the houseboat and yachting sector should move favorably..Hope you are doing well Aussie.
I have a question, might be stupid sounding but..with the icecaps melting the sea's will rise, But..with the warmer temps, wont evaporation increase as well, keeping sea level rise lower?
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21188
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Folks it is going to get hot in FL this week. We may hit 90 in couple of days here in E C FL. This is unheard of in February!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2012



A DELAYED FRONT SCENARIO FRIDAY WILL MEAN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS UNDER GUSTY S/SW WINDS.

unusual for this time of year, your right there
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The Great Lakes will have a stormy week for sure..Small but potent low 144 hours out.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21188
Quoting AussieStorm:


I just hope Antarctica doesn't melt or even I'll be looking for higher ground
If Antarctica melts, the stock I have in the houseboat and yachting sector should move favorably..Hope you are doing well Aussie.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21188
Quoting hydrus:
It is a sure bet that there will be straight line wind damage with this system. If the moisture return increases anymore then whats already forecast, there will also be a tornado out break.
ty for posting this, something to watch for sure
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It is a sure bet that there will be straight line wind damage with this system. If the moisture return increases anymore then whats already forecast, there will also be a tornado out break.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21188
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It typically is dry here this time of year but this is expecailly dry. However come May you can always bank on those seabreeze storms to start firing on a daily basis. Unlike Texas we are surrounded by water which helps in creating our daily rains from late May thru mid October. Even in dry years we still get a lot of rain for instance Vero Beach last year had only 5" of rain the first 5 months of the year but by years end ended up with 64" for the year. Texas always has the death ridge come July.


Yeah. We get most of our rains from tropical systems. Probably why we in east Texas have been in drought since Ike basically. Still holding our breath that these rains will be enough. We could all live without a death ridge.
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Earthquake Rattles Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky
Alex Sosnowski
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Feb 21, 2012; 9:00 AM ET
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Numerous small quakes have shaken the region since 1990. Image appears courtesy of the USGS.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a 4.0 magnitude earthquake shook areas in Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee and Kentucky before dawn Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012.

The quake, which struck just before 4:00 a.m. CST, was felt as far away as St. Louis.

The quake center was 16 miles southwest of Cairo, Ill., and 122 miles north-northeast of Memphis, Tenn.

The soil composition in the region likely magnified the effect of the quake somewhat, causing it to be felt over a broad area, and added to the shaking. However, no major damage has been reported, according to the Associated Press and other sources.

Quakes of this magnitude can cause cracks in walls and foundations and knock items off shelves and pictures off walls.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21188
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Thank you Htdrus for the historical information regarding Florida, this is the information I love to read about when visiting WU.

NOT the political mumbo jumbo!
I like all history..Florida is no exception....This could end up being a significant severe weather event... DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX INTO A
PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION
OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SWLY LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER
EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NRN MEXICO
AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE NAM STILL BEING THE SLOWEST
MODEL. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REACH SRN TX LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
OH VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES.

...SERN STATES...

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S
OVER SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO NEAR 50 OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD AND OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING IN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS
LLJ INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD.


...OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG LIKELY. FORCING WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROMOTE A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED...BUT
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21188
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, that would represent about half a foot of sea level rise over the next 88 years if it happened linearly.

However, Greenland's 5 year linear average rate of melting has been doubling every 5 years for at least the past 10 years or so.

Greenland is like a stick of butter in a hot pan. It's already doomed, it just hasn't quite caught up with it's environment yet. Moreover, the pan is still on the burner and the heat has just been turned up to high.

Over the next few years, as sea ice melts more and more, and earlier in the year, I would expect the albedo feedback to begin really tearing into the edges of the Greenland ice caps.


I just hope Antarctica doesn't melt or even I'll be looking for higher ground
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Quoting RitaEvac:


That death ridge might be setting up over Florida, getting what we got all last year, and pumping gulf moisture into TX this year and tropical systems our way as well.


It typically is dry here this time of year but this is expecailly dry. However come May you can always bank on those seabreeze storms to start firing on a daily basis. Unlike Texas we are surrounded by water which helps in creating our daily rains from late May thru mid October. Even in dry years we still get a lot of rain for instance Vero Beach last year had only 5" of rain the first 5 months of the year but by years end ended up with 64" for the year. Texas always has the death ridge come July.
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Good post, Dr. Masters.
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ECMWF has multiple lines of convection but GFS has one. Which will win?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting RitaEvac:


That death ridge might be setting up over Florida, getting what we got all last year, and pumping gulf moisture into TX this year and tropical systems our way as well.


That's usually when we get them. And why we don't get the ones that hit Florida. But I hope a ridge like that doesn't sit on anyone this year.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Atlantic Wind Shear Map
I see 120 kts of wind shear. what does that mean?


it means the 500mb jet is moving at a speed to create wind shear at the upper levels of 120 knots
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes sorry, you are correct.... But look at the figures.

Earth%u2019s glaciers and ice caps outside of the regions of Greenland and Antarctica are shedding roughly 150 billion tons of ice each year.

world%u2019s glaciers and ice caps had lost about 148 billion tons, or about 39 cubic miles of ice annually from 2003 to 2010.

ice loss from both Greenland and Antarctica, including their peripheral ice caps and glaciers, was roughly 385 billion tons of ice annually.



According to the GRACE data, total sea level rise from all land-based ice on Earth including Greenland and Antarctica was roughly 1.5 millimeters per year annually or about 12 millimeters, or one-half inch, from 2003 to 2010, said Wahr. The sea rise amount does include the expansion of water due to warming, which is the second key sea-rise component and is roughly equal to melt totals, he said.


Yes, that would represent about half a foot of sea level rise over the next 88 years if it happened linearly.

However, Greenland's 5 year linear average rate of melting has been doubling every 5 years for at least the past 10 years or so.

Greenland is like a stick of butter in a hot pan. It's already doomed, it just hasn't quite caught up with it's environment yet. Moreover, the pan is still on the burner and the heat has just been turned up to high.

Over the next few years, as sea ice melts more and more, and earlier in the year, I would expect the albedo feedback to begin really tearing into the edges of the Greenland ice caps.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Thanks Nea! I guess they better hope the Death Ridge doesn't set up this year but I think the onset of El-Nino (possibly coming) might keep them wet this year.


That death ridge might be setting up over Florida, getting what we got all last year, and pumping gulf moisture into TX this year and tropical systems our way as well.
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I remember that day very well, I was playing basketball after work and it was Clear as a bell and very hot, next thing I know I am racing home because it looks like a tornado, everything happened very fast and all storms were moving southwest which I have never seen before, lots of hail also.
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Wow guys, great video of Jarrell, that storm came from Northeast to Southwest, and spawned the big one!
I'll have my guard up when storms come from that direction.
Did anyone see video of a cutaway of the radar?
That would have been interesting!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I have no idea, but running underpasses use to be quite common until weather authorities actively dissuaded people from doing that.

And very rightly so. very dangerous
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Quoting trunkmonkey:
GeorgiaStormz, I wonder if the famous video of the storm chasers climbing in the underpass and having the Tornado come over them is the same one that hit Jarrell Tx?
Wikipedia notes stated many folks ran to underpasses!


I have no idea, but running under underpasses use to be quite common until weather authorities actively dissuaded people from doing that.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
GeorgiaStormz, I wonder if the famous video of the storm chasers climbing in the underpass and having the Tornado come over them is the same one that hit Jarrell Tx?
Wikipedia notes stated many folks ran to underpasses!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's very rare, but it's happened. For instance, the mesoscale complex that spawned the very destructive Jerrell, Texas, tornado was moving from the northeast to the southwest.


Wikipedia link:
1997 Central Texas Tornado Outbreak

Youtube Video:
Jarell, Texas EF-5 Wedge Tornado
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting MahFL:


With bad math like yours any figure can be "manufactured"...

10 x 0.4 mm = 4 mm per 10 years, NOT 1 cm.
1 cm would take 25 years.

Yes sorry, you are correct.... But look at the figures.

Earth’s glaciers and ice caps outside of the regions of Greenland and Antarctica are shedding roughly 150 billion tons of ice each year.

world’s glaciers and ice caps had lost about 148 billion tons, or about 39 cubic miles of ice annually from 2003 to 2010.

ice loss from both Greenland and Antarctica, including their peripheral ice caps and glaciers, was roughly 385 billion tons of ice annually.



According to the GRACE data, total sea level rise from all land-based ice on Earth including Greenland and Antarctica was roughly 1.5 millimeters per year annually or about 12 millimeters, or one-half inch, from 2003 to 2010, said Wahr. The sea rise amount does include the expansion of water due to warming, which is the second key sea-rise component and is roughly equal to melt totals, he said.
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411. Jax82
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Great post! You ideally want storm motion to the NE or E for strong tornadoes.


Or maybe we'll get some of these!:



But probably not =)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I don't ever recall a monster tornado from a north to south storm.
It's very rare, but it's happened. For instance, the mesoscale complex that spawned the very destructive Jerrell, Texas, tornado was moving from the northeast to the southwest.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
Look at the historical data from the super outbreak, all the tracks were east or going northeast!
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407. Jax82
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Great post! You ideally want storm motion to the NE or E for strong tornadoes.


I don't ever recall a monster tornado from a north to south storm.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
February 20, 2012
Recent rains not enough to abate drought

Sherry Koonce The Port Arthur News

PORT ARTHUR —

Though cloudy gray skies have prevailed much of the winter — even soaking Mardi Gras revelers this weekend and measuring above the norm — the amount of precipitation in Jefferson County is not enough to abate last year’s record-setting drought.

“We are not out of the drought at all. Obviously, the recent rain is an improvement, but we are trying to recover from essentially the most intense drought on record,” Robert Deal, meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Lake Charles office said Monday.

Since Jan. 1, 14.15 inches of rainfall has been recorded at the Jack Brooks Regional Airport. So far this month, another 7.88 inches of precipitation has fallen locally. The combined totals put the area 6.38 inches above normal amounts of 7.77 inches.

While helpful, the excess is not enough to counteract a drought that started two years ago and ended 29.12 inches below normal rainfall amounts at the close of 2011.

“Recent rainfall is slowly trying to right the ship. We are improving, but certainly not out of the drought yet,” Deal said.

The Port Arthur area right now is still listed in severe drought, he said.

If forecasts for the next few months hold true, positive effects of any recent rainfall will be next to nil.

“Just a couple of months and we will be right back to where we were,” Deal said.

According to NWS data, the next three months are expected to be drier than normal, Deal said.


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Quoting Neapolitan:
Still way, way down (though there has been an uptick over the past few days:

Uh-oh

Source...


Thanks Nea! I guess they better hope the Death Ridge doesn't set up this year but I think the onset of El-Nino (possibly coming) might keep them wet this year.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I bet Lake Travis is filling up nicely now.
Still way, way down (though there has been a welcome uptick over the past few days):

Uh-oh

Source...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

If so, this system wont be the beginning.
Helicities are only around 200-300 m2/s2 (could change), and the storm motion is North to south which is not the best direction for strong tornadoes


Great post! You ideally want storm motion to the NE or E for strong tornadoes.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I feel this is just the beginning of a horrible weather cycle with severe weather.
I'm an old dude, i remember back in 74, the weather was similar, and we all know what happened back in 74,
THE SUPER OUTBREAK!

If so, this system wont be the beginning.
Helicities are only around 200-300 m2/s2 (could change), and the storm motion is North to south which is not the best direction for strong tornadoes
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
It's going to be 70 on Thursday....and a thunderstorm this week to.
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I bet Lake Travis is filling up nicely now.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I corrected it. I'm multi-tasking this morning and it isn't going so well, lol.

The NAM is currently giving a Tornado Index Value of 6.0-7.0 for Thursday/Friday. These values were last seen at the January 22-23, 2012 tornado outbreak last month.



I have a feeling it will increase as time goes on...


I feel this is just the beginning of a horrible weather cycle with severe weather.
I'm an old dude, i remember back in 74, the weather was similar, and we all know what happened back in 74,
THE SUPER OUTBREAK!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
397. MahFL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes that may be true, but over 10 years it's 1cm..


With bad math like yours any figure can be "manufactured"...

10 x 0.4 mm = 4 mm per 10 years, NOT 1 cm.
1 cm would take 25 years.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
Much need rain this month in TX! Keep it coming for them!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
726 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...DECEMBER 2011 TO FEBRUARY 20 2012 RAIN RELATIVE TO THE
30 YEAR 1981 TO 2010 NORMAL AND RECORD RAINFALL FROM DECEMBER
TO FEBRUARY...

SIXTEEN YEARS AGO TODAY...ON FEBRUARY 21...1996...A RECORD DAILY HIGH
FOR FEBRUARY AND THE WINTER SEASON OF 101 AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...
100 AT SAN ANTONIO...AND 99 AT AUSTIN MUELLER AIRPORT WAS OBSERVED.
THE HIGH OF 99 AT DEL RIO FEBRUARY 21...1996 TIED THE FEBRUARY HIGH
OF 99 AT DEL RIO...ALSO SET ON FEBRUARY 25...2008 AND
FEBRUARY 27...2011.

THIS YEAR WITH RECENT RAINS...FEBRUARY 2012 IS SO FAR THE 5TH WETTEST
FEBRUARY AT SAN ANTONIO AND THE 10TH WETTEST AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM.
THE WARMEST HIGHS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN FEBRUARY...AS OF FEBRUARY 20TH...
ARE 82 AT AUSTIN MABRY ON THE 1ST...81 AT DEL RIO ON THE 1ST...AND
80 AT SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN BERGSTROM ON THE 15TH.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS RAINFALL FROM FEBRUARY 1 TO 20...2012 AND COMPARES
THIS TO THE LATEST 30 YEAR NORMAL AND FEBRUARY RECORD RAINFALL.

LOCATION FEB 1ST TO 20TH 1981-2010 FEBRUARY RECORD
RAINFALL NORMAL RAINFALL

AUSTIN BERGSTROM...3.81 INCHES 2.37 7.34 FEBRUARY 1958
AUSTIN MABRY.......2.95 INCHES 2.02 9.41 FEBRUARY 1903
DEL RIO............1.15 INCHES 0.88 7.82 FEBRUARY 1949
SAN ANTONIO........5.38 INCHES 1.79 7.88 FEBRUARY 1903

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Storms Wednesday:


Storms Thursday/Friday:


(This looks like THU to SAT, but we will see as time goes on)
It peaks over my area around 10 am fri so i hope it slows to friday afternoon.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


That is not till Saturday, was there nothing THU and FRI?

Also the GFS has consistently had the low in the TN valley but the EMCWF has it in the Ohio valley.


Yeah the models are all over the place this morning as they were last week at this time. Models showed no storm for TX to GA early last week but that quickly changed come Tues & Wed last week as TX to GA got hammered by severe wx and flooding on Saturday. Houston area was especially hit hard!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I recorded 88 last Sunday with very windy and humid conditions. Amazing but we need rain very bad right now as the heat and wind are drying things out fast here in C & S FL.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
06Z GFS has done a complete 180 from the 0Z run. Now has a Gulf low and is a lot slower as well. Something to watch as the GFS was showing this last Friday.





That is not till Saturday, was there nothing THU and FRI?

Also the GFS has consistently had the low in the TN valley but the EMCWF has it in the Ohio valley.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Folks it is going to get hot in FL this week. We may hit 90 in couple of days here in E C FL. This is unheard of in February!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2012



A DELAYED FRONT SCENARIO FRIDAY WILL MEAN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS UNDER GUSTY S/SW WINDS.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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