4 out of 5 Americans affected by weather-related disasters since 2006, study finds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2012

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Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."




Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.

Jeff Masters

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A bit of good news for people living across the South...the Storm Prediction Center has lowered the Severe probability down to the regular Slight risk numbers (15%), as it now appears conditions will not be as prime as they appeared to be for Thursday as they did yesterday. Regardless, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all likely.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some pretty strong wording in this discussion by the SPC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 60+ KT MIDLEVEL WLYS
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS TODAY. A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH...WITH ONE OF THESE
FEATURES EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE WILL FRACTURE DURING THE DAY...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE
LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVING QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO THE SERN CONUS BY TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SWLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NEWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL ASSIST IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON.

...TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW UPR 50S TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. AS LOW-LEVEL SWLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS WITH MID 50S
DEWPOINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN AR AND WRN TN/NRN MS.

AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S
OVER MOST OF TN...NERN MS...NRN AL AND NRN GA...FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT N-NEWD INTO THE REGION. AS THE WRN IMPULSE MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INITIAL ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE W END
OF THE SLGT RISK ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS OVER TN. IN ADDITION STORMS OF A MORE ISOLATED/DISCRETE
NATURE MAY DEVELOP S OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
TN...PARTICULARLY AS A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIDLEVEL WLYS WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO
60-90 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AS THIS OCCURS...A
LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE
WILL FAVOR STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE NEAR 70 KT/ AND FAST EWD STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLY
FLOW...FAST MOVING STORMS...AND DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SLGT RISK
AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING WIND FIELDS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 200-400 M2 S-2. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
.

...GULF COAST REGION OF MS...AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
WEAK ASCENT AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION OF MS...AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT
MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..GARNER/PETERS.. 02/22/2012
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789. JRRP
MSLP
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788. JRRP
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Still can't get over this! Looks like we may jump straight to El-Nino in a couple of months.

Climate Prediction Center 2/21/12 Weekly update

All the ENSO regions warmed sustancially with Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C,warmer than the -1.0C that last week's update brought. In fact,Nino 1-2 close to South America is now in positive territory (+0.9C) This shows how La Nina is fading fast and Neutral ENSO will come in short order. The big question is if is going to warm even more and more to jump towards El Nino in a hurry.





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Quoting GiavannaDatoli:



Good citizens of this blog: To Arms!

Prepare to [!}, [-], and [Ignore User]!!!
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Quoting GiavannaDatoli:

I am. Because that means only 99 days left of having to put up with his radical, extreme left-wing socialism agenda he tries to shove down everyone's throat. Yippee!

Please hurricane season, get here!


I've received many E-mails supporting my response to him, most of the comments state they don't support him, and wish he would just talk about weather issues, and didn't agree with him, but If they commented, they would be banned from the WU site.
He is intelligent, and gives good comments regarding to weather issues, I'm sure all are sick and tired of the Global Warming issues.
I have commented many times before, folks lets stick to the weather and only the weather, but it seems the political forces in WU have the edge when it comes to the 1st amendment.

And now back to the weather!
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


But who's counting, EH!

I am!
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I found this.... I claim this interesting GOM subtropical system shown on the GFS as mine....

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Still can't get over this! Looks like we may jump straight to El-Nino in a couple of months.

Climate Prediction Center 2/21/12 Weekly update

All the ENSO regions warmed sustancially with Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C,warmer than the -1.0C that last week's update brought. In fact,Nino 1-2 close to South America is now in positive territory (+0.9C) This shows how La Nina is fading fast and Neutral ENSO will come in short order. The big question is if is going to warm even more and more to jump towards El Nino in a hurry.





we have a better chance of neutral than el nino. right now this huge warming is temporarary but an el nino is not out of the question. i still think warm neutral
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It won't be long; hurricane season begins in just 99 days, 12 hours, and 34 minutes.


But who's counting, EH!
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It won't be long; hurricane season begins in just 99 days, 12 hours, and 34 minutes.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
good morning folks! 59 here this morning and humid, looks to be a nice day here along the gulf coast..have a great day everyone
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


im so ready for hurricane season!!!
That the one thing almost everyone that comes here can agree on. Lol I got catch some sleep
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Quoting Texasdrifter:

I understand just look at the bright side as long as we owe them so much. We don't have to worry about a war with them. Would you try to destroy someone that owed you 15 trillion. And it's only a little over 3 months till hurricane season and not having politics as a legal topic on the blog.


im so ready for hurricane season!!!
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i hope you know i wasnt serious ...it just seems at this point its a lost cause and doing that is somehow acceptable but of course it will create a bigger problem

I understand just look at the bright side as long as we owe them so much. We don't have to worry about a war with them. Would you try to destroy someone that owed you 15 trillion. And it's only a little over 3 months till hurricane season and not having politics as a legal topic on the blog.
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Quoting Texasdrifter:

Lol, well I could give you the forecast. It will be a long nuclear winter and no more global warming.


i hope you know i wasnt serious ...it just seems at this point its a lost cause and doing that is somehow acceptable but of course it will create a bigger problem
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still can't get over this! Looks like we may jump straight to El-Nino in a couple of months.

Climate Prediction Center 2/21/12 Weekly update

All the ENSO regions warmed sustancially with Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C,warmer than the -1.0C that last week's update brought. In fact,Nino 1-2 close to South America is now in positive territory (+0.9C) This shows how La Nina is fading fast and Neutral ENSO will come in short order. The big question is if is going to warm even more and more to jump towards El Nino in a hurry.




Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Texasdrifter:

Lol, well I could give you the forecast. It will be a long nuclear winter and no more global warming.


hahah...solving 2 problems at once
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


they are not our bank, they are our credit card, ill take the 0 credit score if they will STFU! and back to weather news!!!

Lol, well I could give you the forecast. It will be a long nuclear winter and no more global warming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Texasdrifter:

They would be coming to get it alright. Not to mention every other country in the world.That would be like your bank saying they were just going to take all your money; cause they were wanting to get out of the business.


they are not our bank, they are our credit card, ill take the 0 credit score if they will STFU! and back to weather news!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

ARC031-093-111-MOC069-221030-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-120222T1030Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-DUNKLIN MO-
346 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN...NORTHEASTERN POINSETT...NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

AT 346 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARY...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF JONESBORO...MOVING
EAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAY...BLACK
OAK...CARAWAY...GOSNELL...HARRISBURG...LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE...
LUXORA...MANILA...MONETTE...THREE WAY...TRUMANN...VICTORIA AND LACHE
LAKE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BIG LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 9002 3576 8988 3554 9071 3555 9072
3578 9073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 251DEG 55KT 3575 9060

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Newest SPC outlook for today:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 60+ KT MIDLEVEL WLYS
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS TODAY. A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH...WITH ONE OF THESE
FEATURES EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE WILL FRACTURE DURING THE DAY...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE
LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVING QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO THE SERN CONUS BY TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SWLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NEWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL ASSIST IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON.

...TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW UPR 50S TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. AS LOW-LEVEL SWLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS WITH MID 50S
DEWPOINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN AR AND WRN TN/NRN MS.

AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S
OVER MOST OF TN...NERN MS...NRN AL AND NRN GA...FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT N-NEWD INTO THE REGION. AS THE WRN IMPULSE MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INITIAL ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE W END
OF THE SLGT RISK ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS OVER TN. IN ADDITION STORMS OF A MORE ISOLATED/DISCRETE
NATURE MAY DEVELOP S OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
TN...PARTICULARLY AS A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIDLEVEL WLYS WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO
60-90 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AS THIS OCCURS...A
LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE
WILL FAVOR STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE NEAR 70 KT/ AND FAST EWD STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLY
FLOW...FAST MOVING STORMS...AND DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SLGT RISK
AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING WIND FIELDS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 200-400 M2 S-2. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...GULF COAST REGION OF MS...AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
WEAK ASCENT AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION OF MS...AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT
MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..GARNER/PETERS.. 02/22/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT


And i am in it?
Hoping for a supercell
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


europe is in trouble because we are in trouble...United Staes in trouble = world in trouble...i say cut them all off and EFF china if they want their money come get it!!! we have anough peolpe and land to be self sustainable we dont need anyone elses goods.

They would be coming to get it alright. Not to mention every other country in the world.That would be like your bank saying they were just going to take all your money; cause they were wanting to get out of the business.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is the WORLD County DEBT to GDP RATIOS....this is very eye opening.....The US is not in nearly as bad as shape as some countries.....but we certainly are trying to catch up it seems.

LOOK AT THIS VERY CLOSE! Its not hard to see why Europe is in trouble.


europe is in trouble because we are in trouble...United Staes in trouble = world in trouble...i say cut them all off and EFF china if they want their money come get it!!! we have anough peolpe and land to be self sustainable we dont need anyone elses goods.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
The U.S. should print $15 trillion in 5, 10, 20, and $100 bills, and just pay back the debts to the banks.

The savings in interest payments alone would pay back the $15 trillion in 25 years, which ironically is much, much faster than tax revenues would ever, EVER realistically pay back the debt, under any conceivable balanced budget.

Without the interest payments, the deficit would be easier to balance.


It's just paper anyway, right?

We owe $15 trillion and nobody has come knocking to collect. I doubt they'd care if we gave them $15 trillion in paper money, since that's better than nothing at all.

That is a extremely crazy idea. We would be better off just starting a war with China. Since we owe them the most money and if any of us survived we will get our jobs back to. That is a crazy idea as well but 1,000,000,000 times better than yours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
The U.S. should print $15 trillion in 5, 10, 20, and $100 bills, and just pay back the debts to the banks.

The savings in interest payments alone would pay back the $15 trillion in 25 years, which ironically is much, much faster than tax revenues would ever, EVER realistically pay back the debt, under any conceivable balanced budget.

Without the interest payments, the deficit would be easier to balance.


It's just paper anyway, right?

We owe $15 trillion and nobody has come knocking to collect. I doubt they'd care if we gave them $15 trillion in paper money, since that's better than nothing at all.


You obviously can't be serious? You want the value of the dollar to be .0000001 Euro?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
The U.S. should print $15 trillion in 5, 10, 20, and $100 bills, and just pay back the debts to the banks.

The savings in interest payments alone would pay back the $15 trillion in 25 years, which ironically is much, much faster than tax revenues would ever, EVER realistically pay back the debt, under any conceivable balanced budget.

Without the interest payments, the deficit would be easier to balance.


It's just paper anyway, right?

We owe $15 trillion and nobody has come knocking to collect. I doubt they'd care if we gave them $15 trillion in paper money, since that's better than nothing at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Winter is gonna hang around....BURRRRRRR
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Quoting BobWallace:


You might look at the fact that the economy has continued to improve and jobs have continued to be created longer term.

Perhaps you've noticed that things are getting better?



BOB how long can you go without buying new underwear...even without Government....i would hope you might replace your underwear...course many might be going without as it snatched away by Liberals.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I actually read every CBO quarterly report that comes out, just finished up with the one from August. Some of the things in there seem a bit rosy. Now how do we know that there wouldn't have been more jobs created if there was no stimulus. Also, how do we know if the stimulus was a short term fix, but extended the long term problem?


You might look at the fact that the economy has continued to improve and jobs have continued to be created longer term.

Perhaps you've noticed that things are getting better?
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goodnite everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone that thinks GAS PRICES won't stifle economic recovery just think of transportation of goods...INFLATION of goods will be coming if these prices continue!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What? Everything small businesses and families decide is microeconomics.



Exactly......THAT was my point that the Government works under Macro and it needs to work under MICRO more. Great example is the Unemployment Rate...and this has been going on for years how it is reported to be completely inaccurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Newest SPC outlook for today:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 60+ KT MIDLEVEL WLYS
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS TODAY. A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH...WITH ONE OF THESE
FEATURES EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE WILL FRACTURE DURING THE DAY...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE
LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVING QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO THE SERN CONUS BY TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SWLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NEWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL ASSIST IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON.

...TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW UPR 50S TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. AS LOW-LEVEL SWLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS WITH MID 50S
DEWPOINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN AR AND WRN TN/NRN MS.

AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S
OVER MOST OF TN...NERN MS...NRN AL AND NRN GA...FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT N-NEWD INTO THE REGION. AS THE WRN IMPULSE MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INITIAL ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE W END
OF THE SLGT RISK ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS OVER TN. IN ADDITION STORMS OF A MORE ISOLATED/DISCRETE
NATURE MAY DEVELOP S OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
TN...PARTICULARLY AS A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIDLEVEL WLYS WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO
60-90 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AS THIS OCCURS...A
LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE
WILL FAVOR STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE NEAR 70 KT/ AND FAST EWD STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLY
FLOW...FAST MOVING STORMS...AND DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SLGT RISK
AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING WIND FIELDS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 200-400 M2 S-2. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...GULF COAST REGION OF MS...AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
WEAK ASCENT AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION OF MS...AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT
MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..GARNER/PETERS.. 02/22/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
Quoting TampaSpin:


Let me ask you this have you ever worked with a budget buy say in RETAIL? Would a Budget BUY be MICRO of MACRO!


What? Everything small businesses and families decide is microeconomics.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Same thing in weather... since its predicting the future how in the world would we use anything past current facts?


Let me ask you this have you ever worked with a budget buy say in RETAIL? Would a Budget BUY be MICRO of MACRO!
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
MICRO Econ....works with FACTS!
MACRO Econ....works with assumptions!


Well you implied it very heavily.



WORKS with is implying after....i do have a degree in this field.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Macro is only good where it starts and then assumes everything else.


Same thing in weather... since its predicting the future how in the world would we use anything past current facts?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
MICRO Econ....works with FACTS!
MACRO Econ....works with assumptions!


Well you implied it very heavily.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
Macro is only good where it starts and then assumes everything else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How can we be in debt to a Planet we were Born on?

There is no individual debt.

Awaken to reality, and shed this disguise and avoid conflict.

The connectivity between us all has brought about a fundamental rise in consciousness.

The weeks ahead will be hard for many, dont give in to astonishment or Bliss Kiss.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


No you are wrong... sorry I am currently in advanced macroeconomics. We use facts from the past and use models using statistics from human behavior and past similar situations to calculate what may happen in the future. We don't just make up random numbers, we extrapolate from past numbers and past situations based on what we think will happen.



Didn't say MACRO does not use FACTs...Never did i say that....MACRO uses the Current fasts and then uses Assumptions as i have been saying.

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Quoting TampaSpin:



Marco works under Assumptions....MICRO is defined under facts.


No you are wrong... sorry I am currently in advanced macroeconomics. We use facts from the past and use models using statistics from human behavior and past similar situations to calculate what may happen in the future. We don't just make up random numbers, we extrapolate from past numbers and past situations based on what we think will happen.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Macro actually works with tons of facts, that are plugged into the computer models to see what could possibly happen. Much like weather models.



Marco works under Assumptions....MICRO is defined under facts.
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Here is the WORLD County DEBT to GDP RATIOS....this is very eye opening.....The US is not in nearly as bad as shape as some countries.....but we certainly are trying to catch up it seems.

LOOK AT THIS VERY CLOSE! Its not hard to see why Europe is in trouble.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
EACH and EVERY AMERICAN Man, Woman, and Child currently owes the Government a debt of about to approach nearly $50,000! Sorry, that is truly in sane and that my friends is true MICRO Economics!

Debt per TAX Payer....only those that actually pay TAXES is an INSANE DEBT to each..$136,000 per TAX Payer. That is also MICRO Economics.

MICRO Econ....works with FACTS!
MACRO Econ....works with assumptions!


Here is a link to the National DEBT CLOCK!


Macro actually works with tons of facts, that are plugged into the computer models to see what could possibly happen. Much like weather models.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
Quoting Bern99:

Rosy compared to what? Reports in the media, who make a living out of reporting sensation, and would rather publish stories about impending disaster than "nothing to see, move along"?


It's economics, we don't "know" anything for sure. But when acknowledged experts in the field say something, it's usually worth paying attention.

P.S.: yes, I'm new. Been lurking for a year or two, have learned an enormous amount about weather (particularly hurricanes) from the community here, finally signed up yesterday. :-)


Rosy as in, they have unemployment on a rapid decline early 2013, housing increasing majorly half way through 2012. I would love for them to be true, but based on current trends it might be a longer rise than they think.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6590
EACH and EVERY AMERICAN Man, Woman, and Child currently owes the Government a debt of about to approach nearly $50,000! Sorry, that is truly in sane and that my friends is true MICRO Economics!

Debt per TAX Payer....only those that actually pay TAXES is an INSANE DEBT to each..$136,000 per TAX Payer. That is also MICRO Economics.

MICRO Econ....works with FACTS!
MACRO Econ....works with assumptions!


Here is a link to the National DEBT CLOCK!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I will show ya round when ya make it here.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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