Heartland Institute documents reveal strategy of attacks against climate science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on February 17, 2012

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Documents illegally leaked from the Heartland Institute, one of the most active groups engaged in attacking the science of climate change, provide an unprecedented look into how these groups operate. The story was broken Tuesday by DeSmogBlog, a website dedicated to exposing false claims about climate change science. The documents reveal that donors to Heartland included oil billionaire Charles Koch, and Heartland has spent several million dollars over the past five years to undermine climate science. Tens of thousands of dollars are slated to go this year to well-known climate contrarians S.Fred Singer, Craig Idso, and Anthony Watts of the Watts Up With That? website. Naturally, the leaked documents have lit up the blogosphere, but none of the revelations are particularly surprising. The U.S. has a very successful and well-funded climate change denial industry, primarily funded by fossil fuel companies, that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few decades on a PR campaign against climate change science. I made a lengthy post on the subject in 2009 called, The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy. I won't say more here, but getenergysmartnow.com has compiled a long list of blogs that have interesting posts on the Heartland Institute affair for those interested in following this story.



Eight books challenging the Manufactured Doubt industry
Important scientific findings should always be challenged with the goal of finding flaws and improving our scientific understanding. But there's nothing a scientist hates more than to see good science attacked and the reputations of good scientists smeared in name of protecting corporate profits or ideology. A number of scientists have fought back against the recent unfounded assaults on climate change science by publishing books calling attention to the Manufactured Doubt industry's tactics and goals. Anyone priding themselves on being a open-minded skeptic of human-caused global warming should challenge their skepticism by reading one of these works. I thought so highly of Unscientific America, Merchants of Doubt, and Climate Coverup, that I donated 50 copies of these books to undergraduates at the University of Michigan last year. Here's a short synopsis of eight books published in the past three years defending climate change science against the attacks of the Manufactured Doubt industry:

Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. If you're going to read one book on the attacks on climate science, this should probably be the one--Dr. Oreskes, a history professor at UC San Diego, was voted climate change communicator of the year in 2011. A review of Merchants of Doubt and a video of her defending her book against skeptics is at climateprogress.org, my favorite website for staying current on the politics of climate change. From the review: "Make the journey with them, and you’ll see renowned scientists abandon science, you’ll see environmentalism equated with communism, and you’ll discover the connection between the Cold War and climate denial. And for the most part, you’ll be entertained along the way."

Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming, by desmogblog.com co-founders James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. It's another fascinating and very readable book.

Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future, by science writer Chris Mooney. He writes a blog focusing on science communication called the intersection. This is a fantastic book, and should be required reading for all college science majors.

Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand, by Haydn Washington and John Cook. John Cook writes for one of my favorite climate science blogs, skepticalscience.com, which focuses on debunking false skeptic claims about climate science. The book does a great job debunking all the classic climate change denial arguments.

Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health, by George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who now heads the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA). This meticulously-researched book has just one chapter on climate change, and focuses more on tobacco and hazardous chemicals. About the the tobacco industry's Manufactured Doubt campaigns, Michaels wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy".

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, by climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann. Dr. Mann is the originator of the much-debated "hockey stick" graph of global temperatures over the past 1,000 years, which looks like a hockey stick due to the sharp increase in temperatures in recent decades. This book just came out last week, and I hope to write a review on it this spring. Dr. Mann is one of the main contributors to my favorite web site for staying current on climate change research, realclimate.org. John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "an eye-opening account of the lengths the opponents of climate science will go to in their campaign to slander climate scientists and distract the public from the realities of human caused global warming."

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto. I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but it looks interesting. A review by Katherine O’Konski of Climate Science Watch called the book "a fascinating look at the status of science in American society."

The Inquisition of Climate Science, by Dr. James Lawrence Powell, a geochemist with a distinguished career as a college teacher, college president, museum director, and author of books on earth science for general audiences. I haven't read it, but John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand the full scope of the denial industry and their modern day persecution of climate science."

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be taking a few vacation days next week, and wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz will probably be doing most of the blogging for me during the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Exactly, which is why in order for mine to work you would have to chose a different point outside the 25 mile radius of the first point you chose. There are a limited number of "circles" in the 30% area so you could easily figure it like this.

RTS:

I see what you mean in that graph, but in the concept of purely will there be a single severe weather event or not, you can use simple probability if the SPC comes out and directly states there is a 30% chance of severe weather within a certain area.
You're wrong but I forget how to prove it. (been over 30yrs since I squeaked through Stats.) If that logic held you would also be adding the 70% negative probabilities.

My DDD (dear departed dad) used to say, "Son it's not the things you don't know are going to get you in the biggest trouble, It's things you know that aren't so."
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
173. RTSplayer 1:39 PM EST on February 17, 2012
If Rossi or NASA could get either of their LENR devices to work, then you could use them as the primary power for an automobile.



IFF a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his butt.


If a snake had legs it would drag its buckeye's if you know what i mean ;)
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Great Parable but not based on fact:

Snoops.com

Boiled fog . . .

Status/ False


OK, this is a science based blog. Who has a frog? ... Uh, no, Patrap. We need more than just the legs and one that is not missing its legs. Whole frogs, please. We need it alive and preferably pot sized. ;-)
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173. RTSplayer 1:39 PM EST on February 17, 2012
If Rossi or NASA could get either of their LENR devices to work, then you could use them as the primary power for an automobile.



IFF a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his butt.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
That logic leads to an infinite probability that an event will occur since there are an infinite # of points on the circumference of the 25 mile circle from which another 25 mile circle can be drawn . . . That kind of thinking is why you see folks buying handfuls of lottery tickets. I do know that probabilities are not additive.


Exactly, which is why in order for mine to work you would have to chose a different point outside the 25 mile radius of the first point you chose. There are a limited number of "circles" in the 30% area so you could easily figure it like this.

RTS:

I see what you mean in that graph, but in the concept of purely will there be a single severe weather event or not, you can use simple probability if the SPC comes out and directly states there is a 30% chance of severe weather within a certain area.
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Quoting Patrap:
Behind Neil and Buzz back in Houston during there Landing in the Lunar Module, ..it was a Computer Programmer with a Slide rule and his notes on the Alarms that allowed them to Land, down range a mile and a half as Neil almost had to abort due to Low Fuel remaining.

Yup, a Geek and slide rule got er done.

He also received the Medal of Freedom along with the Crew.

See da Google for what a "slide rule" is.

It may save yer life one day.
An older engineer and I had a discussion of the impact of the slide rule. Hard for anyone who has not used the tool to fathom that it was possible to build things like the Golden Gate Bridge, etc., etc., without the aid of computers.
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From the1730 SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook:


The 30% risk area gets smaller again, but the wording seems a little bit stronger:
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX SATURDAY...A
WELL-DEVELOPED 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS JET PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN SE LA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 65 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2
. THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE OR WITH
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND IN THE MS DELTA WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. THIS SETUP MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AS A 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A PERSISTENT WIND DAMAGE THREAT
FROM SRN LA LATE SATURDAY MORNING EXTENDING ENEWD TO CNTRL GA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
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If Rossi or NASA could get either of their LENR devices to work, then you could use them as the primary power for an automobile.


Use the reactor to power an steam engine or thermo-electric motor.

You could have some sort of closed cycle hydrogen system for storing excess energy in the form of electrolysis of water, to make O2 and H2, such as when you are stopped in traffic or parking, etc, and then when you need a boost of energy, such as in accelerating, an H2 combustion system or fuel cell could kick in to provide more instantaneous power for acceleration.

this way you could at least maximize the efficiency of the device.

Unfortunately, it seems these technologies may still be several years from any viable application, and that's assuming Rossi isn't a complete hoax.

Even if it isn't economical enough for a primary power supply, it may be economical for cutting heating and cooling bills by using the waste heat to run water heaters and climate control.

I figure that since electric motors are 80% efficient or so, you'd need a 25kw E-Cat to power an electric car directly at interstate speeds.

Although you could use a far smaller unit just to charge the battery of the electric car ahead of time, which is probably more efficient.

Rossi alleges the smaller E-cats will cost 400 to 500 per Kw design, so that would be $12,500 for the power plant.

But when you consider he claims $50 worth of fuel can run this power plant non-stop for 6 months, then the power plant will pay for itself in fuel cost savings in a few years. You could even use it to power your house and charge a normal electric car at the same time, because it will have so much surplus.


With tongue in cheek, I suggested to Ross that he should market to Google, since Google invests heavily in alternative energy.

Surely, I told Rossi, Google could afford a few thousands of dollars to purchase a few small e-cats and test them.


One can understand his paranoia about dealing with other companies. If he's telling the truth, his device is not yet patent protected in the U.S., the partner might steal it or modify it and then patent it for their own; although he does have a patent in Italy.

If he is lying, he would immediately be exposed if dealing with a legitimate, known corporation or government agency.

Either way, he is in a difficult situation with this technology.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Behind Neil and Buzz back in Houston during the Lunar Landing in the Lunar Module, ..it was a Computer Programmer with a Slide rule and his notes on the Alarms that allowed them to Land, down range a mile and a half as Neil almost had to abort due to Low Fuel remaining.

Yup, a Geek and slide rule got er done.

He also received the Medal of Freedom along with the Crew.

See da Google for what a "slide rule" is.

It may save yer life one day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Nobody seems to like to be in storms as much as I do.
Except for the damage they do to peoples lives, storms are the best!


I agree with you 100% (I am usually outside, if it is safe, watching Mother Nature in all Her glory with a weather radio and cell phone in hand) but with a wooden house surrounded by trees (and the dog hiding under the bed at the first sign of thunder) I do get a bit nervous, and try to prepare accordingly, when ever severe weather or canes threaten............... :)
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Quoting BobWallace:


Natural gas for vehicles is not the answer. We've got a 20 to 100 year supply of natural gas (the 100 year number is highly suspect). And that's based on the rate of use in 2010.

If we were to switch a large portion of our transportation to natural gas we would run out much, much sooner. Don't forget, we're already building a lot of new NG plants for electricity generation and getting ready to export NG to other countries.

Natural gas is valuable right now as a renewable energy backup. It's the cheapest way to fill in the gaps between Sun and wind inputs while we wait for cheaper storage systems to be developed.

Natural gas does turn into CO2 when burned, but if we were to get our electricity from wind or solar 75% of the time and use NG the other 25% then we'd greatly decrease the amount of CO2 we're producing by burning coal.

Right now we could switch all our personal vehicles to EVs and PHEVs.

At least a quarter of all drivers would be fine with a 100 mile EV. Think of all the multi-car households in which one of the cars is used for modest distance commutes. That would leave the other car(s) free for long trips.

The rest of us could use PHEVs. Something like the Chevy Volt would let us do most of our driving with electricity but give us the range of a gas car when we need it.

We could cut our oil usage by at least 75%.

We could eliminate foreign purchases of oil, stop the flow of $1 billion dollars per day to other countries. That would really help our balance of trade.

Switching 75% of our "fuel" to electricity would mean lots and lots of US jobs building wind farms and installing solar panels. (Geothermal, hydro and tidal as well.) Some of the parts might be made overseas, but all of the installation and operation has to be done 'in country'.

We'd end up paying lots less per mile to drive. Electricity for an EV costs about "$1/gallon". We'd pay less for electricity, wind and solar lower the cost of power.

Our health costs would drop if we were to get the coal and oil pollution out of our air.

And we'd dodge the cost of climate change.



I find your solutions very impressive, I commend you, if only politicians ran for those solutions :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
This might explain why we rank where we do on international education scales. Sorry to tell you this but it is still more valuable to be able to communicate in English than in Texteeze. Personal cell phones banned in most entry level workforce positions. Quel horreur! Oh the humanity!
Indeed.

In my 12th grade English and math classes we receiver a class set of laptops this year. Unfortunately, in my English class whenever we are allowed to use the laptops, half of the them just sit there in the cart unused (we aren't required to use them), and then of the other half being used, roughly four out of every five of them are being used for the internet. And in our math class, we've only used the laptops twice all year.

It's really sad to see technology abused and wasted like this. Furthermore, its actually providing an outlet for students to get less work done and stay more off task. At the end of the day we all end up paying for it. It's a real shame.
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Hydrus, sum mo on Inhofe.


He's is a idiot.

Also, as a Pilot who refused to get better glasses, he almost landed on a closed runway with a HUGE X on it and endangered the lives of the construction workers on the CLOSED runway.

Then check out how he used his Powers in D.C. to try and ramrod a screwy Bill to get even for his landing incident and violation of FAA rules.


He's a dinosaur with a Big Tail..in the World of 2012.

And I wont even say what committee's he heads and is on.

Another reason were doomed.

His thinking and political rhetoric is the Worst of all of us.


Then there is Him and his C-Street "Family Brother's",


Enter the twilight Zone if ya wanna read up on that stuff.

It'll blow ya mind.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Quoting Jedkins01:


hey what do you expect, the model was made in Canada! ;)

LOL jk
Canada,s alright...They hold there money pretty tight tho...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20937
Rainfall here at my place in Pinellas County(Tampa Bay area) is surprisingly heavy compared to what it appears on radar, it must be shallow convection embedded in deep moist layer or something then. My rain gauge is at 1.09 inches per hour rain rate right now. We were only supposed to see light patchy stratiform rain today, not any convective activity. There must be some decent lifting moving overhead, I'll take it though!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
Quoting LargoFl:
put a frog in a pan of water,put that pan on the stove and turn it to slow heat, the water will get warmer and warmer, but slowly, the frog wont jump out because he does not notice the increase of heat, he will die in that pan...its whats going to happen to mankind if he does not start to realize the climate changes..slowly..happening! mother nayure is making changes, we must adapt to these changes,pure and simple...earth 2100 was a Great program to watch, regardless wether you belive in the changes or not.


Great Parable but not based on fact:

Snoops.com

Boiled fog . . .

Status/ False
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Actually possibly a bad thing if some of the "pre-front" moisture/rain dries up a bit along the Gulf. I was hoping for a decent rain/cloud shield out ahead of the front tomorrow, for North Florida anyway, to keep things a little more stable and cooler in the atmosphere. If we get the Sun heating real good on Sat during the day, things might be a little more bumpy later in the afternoon and evening when the front arrives.


Nobody seems to like to be in storms as much as I do.
Except for the damage they do to peoples lives, storms are the best!
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
I am starting to wonder if the forecast for Houston is going to be a bust. The forecast discussion sounds as if the weather service has missed this one by a mile. Note I am only referring to the Houston area. I just find it weird that they abruptly changed like this:

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS NOT GOING TO PLAN THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHT`S S/WV WENT WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
850 MB MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW ANY S/WV`S MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. OTHER THAN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CAN`T REALLY FIND ANY OTHER LIFTING MECHANISM SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND DELAY THE FLOOD WATCH TO 00Z. THE 12Z
NAM12 IS SHIFTING MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AFTER LAST NIGHTS FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING.

If it helps Austin/San Antonio is staying the course and we have a Flood Watch out.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE WESTERN HALF. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL OVERRUN THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SFC. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 36HRS. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST.
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WV



IR



RGB

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Quoting Patrap:
Im waiting for "R" Sen. Inhofe to "pop-in" with a retort any second too.


Ack!!!! : )
I wish I could post my thoughts, but I do have great respect for Dr.M,s blog...Senator Inhofe is an idiot.......Wiki.

In the 2008 election cycle, Inhofe largest campaign donors represented the oil and gas ($446,900 in donations), leadership PACs ($316,720) and electric utilities ($221,654) industries/categories. In 2010, his largest donors represented the oil and gas ($429,950) and electric utilities ($206,654). In a 2006 interview with the Tulsa World newspaper, Inhofe said regarding the environmentalist movement, "It kind of reminds... I could use the Third Reich, the Big Lie... You say something over and over and over and over again, and people will believe it, and that's their [the environmentalists'] strategy... A hot summer has nothing to do with global warming. Let's keep in mind it was just three weeks ago that people were saying, 'Wait a minute; it is unusually cool....Everything on which they [the environmentalists] based their story, in terms of the facts, has been refuted scientifically."

Inhofe had previously compared the United States Environmental Protection Agency to the Gestapo, and he compared EPA Administrator Carol Browner to Tokyo Rose. Inhofe had previously stated that Global Warming is "the second-largest hoax ever played on the American people, after the separation of church and state." Inhofe, citing uncertainties related to climate science and the adverse impact that mandatory emissions reductions would have on the U.S. economy, voted on June 22, 2005 to reject an amendment to an energy bill that would have forced reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases and created a mandatory emissions trading scheme.
Inhofe has similarly criticized predictions of ozone depletion, particularly in relation to the Arctic. .................................................. ..................................He compares environmentalists to the Third Reich. Carol Browner to Tokyo Rose...I would compare him to Goebbels, but he had a PH.D.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20937
Actually possibly a bad thing if some of the "pre-front" moisture/rain dries up a bit along the Gulf. I was hoping for a decent rain/cloud shield out ahead of the front tomorrow, for North Florida anyway, to keep things a little more stable and cooler in the atmosphere. If we get the Sun heating real good on Sat during the day, things might be a little more bumpy later in the afternoon and evening when the front arrives.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
New blog out concerning Tropical cyclones' Giovanna and 13S Link

:D

That mass of convection south of china in your blog almost looks like the one that was over the philippines, is it the same one?
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Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service New Orleans la
845 am CST Friday Feb 17 2012






Update...
see dss section below.


&&


Decision support... /experimental/
dss code...Orange
deployed...tentative to St. John The Baptist Parish
tentative to Orleans Parish
activation..er and comms desks.

assessing severe thunderstorm potential for Sat.




Short term...


A bit of good news this morning for today before the bad news
comes for tomorrow. Temperatures holding in the upper 50s to near
60 across much of the area currently and most of the rainfall
associated with our old front is staying offshore. In addition
as previously mentioned...the dense fog advisory was cancelled
and visibilities are not an issue outside of the rain along the
immediate coast.


As for the daytime hours today...have lowered probability of precipitation quite a bit
especially in the morning hours as the warm front draped across
the coastal waters looks to be holding steady for the moment.
Local WRF shows some development along the coast but actually GOES
through much of the morning and even afternoon hours with little
in the way of rainfall. Lowered to 30 probability of precipitation for the metropolitan New
Orleans area and 20 for points northward for the morning hours and
40 and 30 respectively for the afternoon to account for any
movement of the front further north. This should allow most of the
early day activities to go off without much of a problem and if
all holds the parades tonight should be fine as well.


Now for the bad news. Forecast concerns continue to revolve around
Saturday and the chance for severe weather and flash flooding. A
developing surface low off of the coast of Texas will move towards
the area on Saturday. The expected track of the low has not really
changed with a lch to btr to mcb path still expected putting a good
portion of our area into the warm sector. With the combination of
the low and an advancing warm front...a 40 to 50 knots south-
southwesterly low level jet...and plentiful moisture the threat of
heavy rainfall will begin on Saturday morning and last throughout
the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals on the order of 2 to 3 inches
are expected and could be a touch low when all is said and done.
In addition...some isolated heavier amounts are possible. With
that in mind...have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire County Warning Area
from 12z Saturday through 00z Sunday.



In addition to the flash flood risk...the threat of severe weather
remains as a squall line is expected to develop and move from west
to east across the County Warning Area. Model soundings continue to show a Low
Cape-high shear set up with strong deep layer shear...large
curving hodographs and helicity values on the order of 500-600
m2/s2. This will more than likely lead to bows and embedded
supercells along the line. The main threats continue to be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The timing of the line
looks to be around noon for the btr area...3pm for the metropolitan New
Orleans area and 5 to 6 PM for the Mississippi Gulf Coast.


All of this said...extra attention to will need to be paid to the
weather for all outdoor activities on Saturday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Gee wiz the GFS is giving me a whole inch of snow? hmmm....aint that somethin. i feel special xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
New blog out concerning Tropical cyclones' Giovanna and 13S Link

:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
I am starting to wonder if the forecast for Houston is going to be a bust. The forecast discussion sounds as if the weather service has missed this one by a mile. Note I am only referring to the Houston area. I just find it weird that they abruptly changed like this:

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS NOT GOING TO PLAN THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHT`S S/WV WENT WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
850 MB MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW ANY S/WV`S MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. OTHER THAN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CAN`T REALLY FIND ANY OTHER LIFTING MECHANISM SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND DELAY THE FLOOD WATCH TO 00Z. THE 12Z
NAM12 IS SHIFTING MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AFTER LAST NIGHTS FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING.


I was just reading the same over here and thinking here we go again. Guess we still get a little jumpy when the rain doesn't show up. But they went ahead and put us under a flood watch. Mainly for later.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS INITIAL
SHORT WAVE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED JUST TO THE
WEST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT. WILL FINE TUNE THE DETAILS FOR THE HEAVY
RAIN/POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

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Yeah I was thinking the Tampabay area now on Sunday with an approaching squall line most likely not as server as north Floria but still pretty strong.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

a 30% chance of Severe Weather does not mean that there is a 70% chance it will not occur. It means there is the potential for a relatively significant severe weather outbreak.

Man, what got into everybody tody? It's Friday! Enjoy it like me!

[posted from school]
lol you're at school right now?

I got Friday and Monday off, 4-day weekend!
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Quoting Jedkins01:
What we need is a switch over to natural gas and natural gas hybrid vehicles, and significant investing in an electric vehicle that has power and can run long distances. In other words, battery technology, we need to make batteries that generate more power output, high voltage batteries would be great.

We are 15 trillion in debt from mostly irresponsible government spending, we need to cut all the crap and invest in science advancement of alternative energy and improved efficiency(green/less waste).



But why is there such opposition? HMMMM could it be greed and deceitfulness? Nahhhhh..... LOL


Natural gas for vehicles is not the answer. We've got a 20 to 100 year supply of natural gas (the 100 year number is highly suspect). And that's based on the rate of use in 2010.

If we were to switch a large portion of our transportation to natural gas we would run out much, much sooner. Don't forget, we're already building a lot of new NG plants for electricity generation and getting ready to export NG to other countries.

Natural gas is valuable right now as a renewable energy backup. It's the cheapest way to fill in the gaps between Sun and wind inputs while we wait for cheaper storage systems to be developed.

Natural gas does turn into CO2 when burned, but if we were to get our electricity from wind or solar 75% of the time and use NG the other 25% then we'd greatly decrease the amount of CO2 we're producing by burning coal.

Right now we could switch all our personal vehicles to EVs and PHEVs.

At least a quarter of all drivers would be fine with a 100 mile EV. Think of all the multi-car households in which one of the cars is used for modest distance commutes. That would leave the other car(s) free for long trips.

The rest of us could use PHEVs. Something like the Chevy Volt would let us do most of our driving with electricity but give us the range of a gas car when we need it.

We could cut our oil usage by at least 75%.

We could eliminate foreign purchases of oil, stop the flow of $1 billion dollars per day to other countries. That would really help our balance of trade.

Switching 75% of our "fuel" to electricity would mean lots and lots of US jobs building wind farms and installing solar panels. (Geothermal, hydro and tidal as well.) Some of the parts might be made overseas, but all of the installation and operation has to be done 'in country'.

We'd end up paying lots less per mile to drive. Electricity for an EV costs about "$1/gallon". We'd pay less for electricity, wind and solar lower the cost of power.

Our health costs would drop if we were to get the coal and oil pollution out of our air.

And we'd dodge the cost of climate change.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Here is my only issue with this post, when "Climategate" happened Dr. Masters made a post stating how the hacked emails were just Climate Change denialist trying to hide the truth and twisting words. Now when these are released, which is basically a carbon copy just to the other side it is "see they know what they are doing exactly what we thought they were! denialists!"
From GetEnergySmartNow!, here's how this incident differs from "climategate":
1. Unlike the illegal breaking into East Anglia's computers, the Heartless Valentine's Day material does not look to have come from an outside theft but from an insider who has chosen, for whatever reason, to 'leak' the material (almost certainly without authorization) and be a(n anonymous) whistleblower.

2. Unlike the selective leaking of the stolen East Anglia's email correspondence, the Heartless Valentine's Day material has been, from the get go, put into public in its entirety — with any 'cherry-picking' of material that leads to misrepresentation easily discovered.

3. Unlike the stolen East Anglia's email correspondance, the Heartless Valentine's Day material are completed (formal) documents. This isn't back and forth draft material between colleagues, engaged in what they saw as interactions with colleagues as they sought to figure out how to move forward, but the formalized results of drafts/etc … There is something quite different between one's informal (midnight …) email and an institution’s formalized planning documents.

4. Sigh, unlike with the distorted coverage the stolen East Anglia correspondence with the RWSM machine (from bloggers to Hannity/Beck to Faux "News" to the RNC …) backing, we cannot expect that the nation's "journalists" will give front page attention to this heartless effort advocating "dissuading teachers from teaching science".
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It is true that each area within a 25 mile radius has a 70% chance of not seeing severe weather, however if we take lets say 3 points within different radii, then you have to raise the 70% of the power of 3 so in this case it would be a 34% chance of severe weather not happening at all, or a 64% chance of severe weather happening at one of the 3 25 mile radii. Hope that helps :) Just raise the percentage you have to the power of how many different points you have.
That logic leads to an infinite probability that an event will occur since there are an infinite # of points on the circumference of the 25 mile circle from which another 25 mile circle can be drawn . . . That kind of thinking is why you see folks buying handfuls of lottery tickets. I do know that probabilities are not additive.
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Quoting LargoFl:
ty for posting that, what kinda scared me the most in that show, was the future loss of pure drinking water once the ice sheets are gone and the increase in human population, not noticing at all, the shrinkage of food and water, denying it even happening..amazing we humans are huh lol..again ty for posting that..i really enjoyed that program.


Your very observant and that will be a plus for you and your family n the Future.

Man has changed things on Earth in my life drastically in 52 years.

But having a daughter who turned 21 Valentines day Weds, well, and a son 19.

I take the advice of my Father.

Leave a better world for your kids and grandkids.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
SO what does it mean? What is the chance of severe weather not happening? Teach this old dog a new trick. Stats has always been my Achilles heal.


A 30 percent risk means there is a 30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
In other words 30 percent of the risk area is within 25 miles of a severe weather event, a pretty large area.
Looking More Closely,
If the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point(625pi square miles) is 30%,there is a 70% chance severe weather does not occur within 25 miles of that point.
Within 50 squaremiles of a point(2500pi square miles, 4 times our original area), there is approximately a .7^4 chance of no severe weather occuring in this area which equals 0.2401, meaning we are now up to a 75.99% chance of severe weather occuring in our new enlarged area which is about 8000 square miles.
The state of GA, for example is 60,000 square miles, so there will probably be quite a few, but not an overly excessive, amount of severe weather in a 30% risk area covering GA.
That is why 30% is still included in a slight risk, but still is a very dangerous situation
I'm sure my probability math is horrible( I dont think dividing our 2500 square miles into 4 sections is proper mathematics), but I hope that helps anyway.

Sorry about all the math, can't help it i'm still in school:)


As a side note it is difficult to determine these probabilities since the SPC does not know exactly where severe weather occured since it can only see radar and damage reports. We may never know what the probabilties should be, but the SPC makes educated guesses based on the state of the atmosphere before/during a severe weather event.
Now they have product verification where they overlay the reports they received on top of the convective outlooks they issued for the event in question. Sometimes, it appears they were right, other times, not so much.
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Mountains of ice the Netherlands

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detai lpage&v=NfWGjPQ-iVM
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I will clarify what I said above.

When they are forecasting a thunderstorm or a tornado, THAT is simple probability.

But the long term forecast for temperature departures from normal, or precip departures simply doesn't make sense as a representation of "simple probability".
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, yes. I have been diggin RTS,s posts lately. Precip models..GFS. As always, the CMC exaggerates....And the NOGAPS actually looks reasonable.


hey what do you expect, the model was made in Canada! ;)

LOL jk
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
Quoting Patrap:


During the course of that show, first, I loved the Art associated with it.
It was Beautiful at times, and stark reality another.
Secondly, it came to me that here we have a show,describing the future as it may be..and the personal impact it has on the individual.

Also the attaching of persona from this forum to characters in the Story, were also intriguing to say the least.

: )

Earth 2100 Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what a worst-case future might look like if humans do not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources.



ty for posting that, what kinda scared me the most in that show, was the future loss of pure drinking water once the ice sheets are gone and the increase in human population, not noticing at all, the shrinkage of food and water, denying it even happening..amazing we humans are huh lol..again ty for posting that..i really enjoyed that program.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Quoting MississippiWx:


So, what you're saying is that you don't care about people possibly dying this weekend from severe storms/flooding? I see.

I know you DO care, but me making that statement is just as ignorant as you implying that I don't care about the climate. I never once said anything about climate change.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle.
he's not saying he doesn't care about the severe weather outbreak, he's saying Dr. Masters can post whatever he wants, its his blog.

I do not see how that was hypocritical/pot and kettle-like. Also, keep in mind if any of the climate model predictions came true, many people would be dying as a result of these changes as well.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


+10123 x 10^28
Yes, yes. I have been diggin RTS,s posts lately. Precip models..GFS. As always, the CMC exaggerates....And the NOGAPS actually looks reasonable.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20937
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It is simple probability, its like saying roll 6 dice what is the probability the number 1 doesnt appear.


It can't be simple probability, because that wouldn't make sense.

the neutral gray is defined as equal chance.

So the 3rd shade of orange, being 50%, cannot represent simple probability, since 50% in simple probability would still be equal chance...

The probability 1 does not appear on 1D6 is 5/6, neglecting air resistance and other biases in the human's tossing method.

But ultimately, all numbers on the die have equal chance of appearing.


Now, if you put a bottom cap of 2 on a 1d6, then 1 has no chance of appearing, and 2 has a 2/6 chance of appearing, while the other values maintain a 1/6 chance.


Even if you had a bottom cap of 3 on 1D6, you'd still have a 50/50 chance of rolling above average or below average as compared to an unbiased die, since average is actually 3.5...


Now if you had a plus 1 modifier to all rolls, then you have a 4/6 chance of rolling above average vs an unbiased die roll, because 3 would become 4, which is more than 3.5.

But 4/6 is only 16.7% above equal chance that would be on an unbiased die roll.


This is why I must dispute the claim that it's simple probability.

If it was simple probability, the first colored ring should start at some number like 55 or 60%, since grey is already equal chance...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Jrrtrollkien:


I would rather stick needles in my eyes.


Well, it would certainly make denying the obvious easier if you can't see it. :P
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1473
If planning on Endymion tommorow, it may roll late, like 6pm, or worse case, behind Bacchus Sunday, or maybe the Uptown Route Sunday as well.

Plan on indoor activities tomorrow rather than going to stake out a place on the Super Krewe's route.

Lotsa updates on nola.comfor the events thru Phat Tuesday coming.

Rain is gone Saturday evening and looks good thru the Mardi Gras day Tues as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
Quoting RTSplayer:


There certainly is a difference if one group is shown to be intentionally telling lies to distort the facts and confuse people.

Being a skeptic because you aren't yet convinced by the evidence, or have a legitimate alternate theory is one thing.

It is quite different to intentionally falsify knowledge, or confuse people about the reliability and interpretation of data due to corrupt political or financial motivations.



Lately, it comes as little surprise to me that the ultra conservatives, on which ever spectrum you want to measure them as such, are the ones behind the lies and misinformation.


If the Coal companies have a complaint against solar and wind companies taking advantage of government incentives, why don't they invest in solar and wind and compete?

The answer is a bit more complicated than that. With a few exceptions, the fossil fuel industry simply does NOT want individuals, small businesses, or even corporations to be able to make cheap energy of their own, by any means.

They have an energy monopoly, and want it to stay that way, and from their point of view, the best way to continue to enslave everyone else is to stick with coal and oil, since the sheep must always come back for more.

If we had cheap energy in which much of our energy came from private wind and solar units on our houses and businesses, which last for several decades or even a generation, and pay for themselves several times over in their expected life times, then the energy monopolies would go bankrupt.


Like any good crime lord, their whole life motivation is to "protect their turf" by undermining any advancement in energy technology and infrastructure.


+10123 x 10^28
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Quoting LargoFl:
put a frog in a pan of water,put that pan on the stove and turn it to slow heat, the water will get warmer and warmer, but slowly, the frog wont jump out because he does not notice the increase of heat, he will die in that pan...its whats going to happen to mankind if he does not start to realize the climate changes..slowly..happening! mother nayure is making changes, we must adapt to these changes,pure and simple...earth 2100 was a Great program to watch, regardless wether you belive in the changes or not.


During the course of that show, first, I loved the Art associated with it.
It was Beautiful at times, and stark reality another.
Secondly, it came to me that here we have a show,describing the future as it may be..and the personal impact it has on the individual.

Also the attaching of persona from this forum to characters in the Story, were also intriguing to say the least.

: )

Earth 2100 Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what a worst-case future might look like if humans do not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127805
What we need is a switch over to natural gas and natural gas hybrid vehicles, and significant investing in an electric vehicle that has power and can run long distances. In other words, battery technology, we need to make batteries that generate more power output, high voltage batteries would be great.

We are 15 trillion in debt from mostly irresponsible government spending, we need to cut all the crap and invest in science advancement of alternative energy and improved efficiency(green/less waste).

Natural gas isn't a long term and permanent solution, but its a heck of a lot better than oil on the environment, plus we would no longer be dependent on other countries. Meanwhile we can put a lot of help for scientists to develop more powerful and longer road life electric vehicles.



But why is there such opposition? HMMMM could it be greed and deceitfulness? Nahhhhh..... LOL
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
I am starting to wonder if the forecast for Houston is going to be a bust. The forecast discussion sounds as if the weather service has missed this one by a mile. Note I am only referring to the Houston area. I just find it weird that they abruptly changed like this:

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS NOT GOING TO PLAN THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHT`S S/WV WENT WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
850 MB MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW ANY S/WV`S MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. OTHER THAN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CAN`T REALLY FIND ANY OTHER LIFTING MECHANISM SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND DELAY THE FLOOD WATCH TO 00Z. THE 12Z
NAM12 IS SHIFTING MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AFTER LAST NIGHTS FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING.
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put a frog in a pan of water,put that pan on the stove and turn it to slow heat, the water will get warmer and warmer, but slowly, the frog wont jump out because he does not notice the increase of heat, he will die in that pan...its whats going to happen to mankind if he does not start to realize the climate changes..slowly..happening! mother nayure is making changes, we must adapt to these changes,pure and simple...earth 2100 was a Great program to watch, regardless wether you belive in the changes or not.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Link

It's a couple things that distinguishes it.

It's a measure of the bias in probability above equal chance, not the probability itself.

Second, it applies to an area within 50 miles, I think, of the town, station, or region for which the forecast is given. It varies depending on the type of weather being forecast.

Although I'm not sure how those numbers are calculated.

Example:



Clearly, in this graphic "50%" does not mean there's a 50/50 chance, since the neutral gray actually represents equal chance.

It also clearly doesn't represent a linear multiple of average temperature in any scale, as that would represent 150 degree weather, which is silly.

The colored graphics represent the likelihood of being biased above an even chance.


It is simple probability, its like saying roll 6 dice what is the probability the number 1 doesnt appear.
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Will this sever weather make its way down into the tampabay area?


Don't quote me on it but not looking at the moment like Tampa Bay will get any severe weather tommorow based on the current tragectory. Anything could happen though if the low really deepens and dips a little further South tommorow on the way to the Eastern Seaboard........ Keep tuned to your local NWS tommorow.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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