Heartland Institute documents reveal strategy of attacks against climate science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on February 17, 2012

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Documents illegally leaked from the Heartland Institute, one of the most active groups engaged in attacking the science of climate change, provide an unprecedented look into how these groups operate. The story was broken Tuesday by DeSmogBlog, a website dedicated to exposing false claims about climate change science. The documents reveal that donors to Heartland included oil billionaire Charles Koch, and Heartland has spent several million dollars over the past five years to undermine climate science. Tens of thousands of dollars are slated to go this year to well-known climate contrarians S.Fred Singer, Craig Idso, and Anthony Watts of the Watts Up With That? website. Naturally, the leaked documents have lit up the blogosphere, but none of the revelations are particularly surprising. The U.S. has a very successful and well-funded climate change denial industry, primarily funded by fossil fuel companies, that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few decades on a PR campaign against climate change science. I made a lengthy post on the subject in 2009 called, The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy. I won't say more here, but getenergysmartnow.com has compiled a long list of blogs that have interesting posts on the Heartland Institute affair for those interested in following this story.



Eight books challenging the Manufactured Doubt industry
Important scientific findings should always be challenged with the goal of finding flaws and improving our scientific understanding. But there's nothing a scientist hates more than to see good science attacked and the reputations of good scientists smeared in name of protecting corporate profits or ideology. A number of scientists have fought back against the recent unfounded assaults on climate change science by publishing books calling attention to the Manufactured Doubt industry's tactics and goals. Anyone priding themselves on being a open-minded skeptic of human-caused global warming should challenge their skepticism by reading one of these works. I thought so highly of Unscientific America, Merchants of Doubt, and Climate Coverup, that I donated 50 copies of these books to undergraduates at the University of Michigan last year. Here's a short synopsis of eight books published in the past three years defending climate change science against the attacks of the Manufactured Doubt industry:

Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. If you're going to read one book on the attacks on climate science, this should probably be the one--Dr. Oreskes, a history professor at UC San Diego, was voted climate change communicator of the year in 2011. A review of Merchants of Doubt and a video of her defending her book against skeptics is at climateprogress.org, my favorite website for staying current on the politics of climate change. From the review: "Make the journey with them, and you’ll see renowned scientists abandon science, you’ll see environmentalism equated with communism, and you’ll discover the connection between the Cold War and climate denial. And for the most part, you’ll be entertained along the way."

Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming, by desmogblog.com co-founders James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. It's another fascinating and very readable book.

Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future, by science writer Chris Mooney. He writes a blog focusing on science communication called the intersection. This is a fantastic book, and should be required reading for all college science majors.

Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand, by Haydn Washington and John Cook. John Cook writes for one of my favorite climate science blogs, skepticalscience.com, which focuses on debunking false skeptic claims about climate science. The book does a great job debunking all the classic climate change denial arguments.

Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health, by George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who now heads the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA). This meticulously-researched book has just one chapter on climate change, and focuses more on tobacco and hazardous chemicals. About the the tobacco industry's Manufactured Doubt campaigns, Michaels wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy".

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, by climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann. Dr. Mann is the originator of the much-debated "hockey stick" graph of global temperatures over the past 1,000 years, which looks like a hockey stick due to the sharp increase in temperatures in recent decades. This book just came out last week, and I hope to write a review on it this spring. Dr. Mann is one of the main contributors to my favorite web site for staying current on climate change research, realclimate.org. John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "an eye-opening account of the lengths the opponents of climate science will go to in their campaign to slander climate scientists and distract the public from the realities of human caused global warming."

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto. I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but it looks interesting. A review by Katherine O’Konski of Climate Science Watch called the book "a fascinating look at the status of science in American society."

The Inquisition of Climate Science, by Dr. James Lawrence Powell, a geochemist with a distinguished career as a college teacher, college president, museum director, and author of books on earth science for general audiences. I haven't read it, but John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand the full scope of the denial industry and their modern day persecution of climate science."

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be taking a few vacation days next week, and wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz will probably be doing most of the blogging for me during the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Do your research, write a book, collect $$.

Hey you got proper credentials? I bet I can point you toward some folks who might give you a hefty advance. Oh wait, they don't care about credentials. How well can you write and spin?


Some publish research and back it up with pages of verifiable references.

Link

Link
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SO....The 00Z NAM brings more snow to me, bout 3/4 inch.

GFS and NAM seem to be trending towards more snow for me. Sorry WxGeekVA xD.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting WxGeekVA:
WxGeekVA jumps off of snow train as it crashes into a mountainside after the 0Z NAM....



How do you tell what the NAM is forecasting it not show rain/snow....just by temps forecast?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Makarov? War? Sounds like Call of Duty to me....lol


Take your Geiger counter with you....

Russia Would Use Nukes to Stave Off Threats - Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov

Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov
© RIA Novosti. Vladimir Vyatkin
16:12 15/02/2012
MOSCOW, February 15 (RIA Novosti)

Related News
- Russian senator
Russian Navy to Get 10 Borey Class Nuclear Subs
Russia May Boost Nuclear Potential - Deputy Defense Min.
Disposal of Russian Third Generation Nuclear Subs

Missiles that can penetrate any defense - Yars systems on alert
Russia develops unique Yars ballistic missile
Russian Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bomber

Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to any imminent threat to its national security, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said on Wednesday.

“We are certainly not planning to fight against the whole of NATO,” Makarov said in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio, “but if there is a threat to the integrity of the Russian Federation, we have the right to use nuclear weapons, and we will.”
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



What about the "Manufactured Climate Change" industry?
Do your research, write a book, collect $$.

Hey you got proper credentials? I bet I can point you toward some folks who might give you a hefty advance. Oh wait, they don't care about credentials. How well can you write and spin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
U.S. officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely- Russia prepares military response
Posted on February 18, 2012

February 18, 2012 – WASHINGTON - Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear program, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so. The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures, such as the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo, to bite deeper into Iran’s already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran. But there is a strong current of opinion within the administration – including in the Pentagon and the state department – that believes sanctions are doomed to fail, and that their principal use now is in delaying Israeli military action, as well as reassuring Europe that an attack will only come after other means have been tested. “The White House wants to see sanctions work. This is not the Bush White House. It does not need another conflict,” said an official knowledgeable on Middle East policy. “Its problem is that the guys in Tehran are behaving like sanctions don’t matter, like their economy isn’t collapsing, like Israel isn’t going to do anything. Sanctions are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it’s hard to see how we don’t move to the ‘in extremis’ option.” The White House has said repeatedly that all options are on the table, including the use of force to stop Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, but that for now the emphasis is firmly on diplomacy and sanctions. But long-held doubts among US officials about whether the Iranians can be enticed or cajoled into serious negotiations have been reinforced by recent events. “We don’t see a way forward,” said one official. “The record shows that there is nothing to work with.” Scepticism about Iranian intent is rooted in Iran’s repeated spurning of overtures from successive U.S. presidents from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama, who appealed within weeks of coming to office for “constructive ties” and “mutual respect.” -Telegraph

MOSCOW prepares military response for Iranian attack — Russia has been preparing for the prospect of an Israeli or U.S. air strike on Iran in 2012. Officials said the Kremlin has ordered the military to draft options for a Russian response to any foreign attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. They said the Defense Ministry has established a facility to monitor Teheran, an ally and trading partner of Moscow. Russian Chief of Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov “Iran, of course, is a sore spot,” Russian Chief of Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said. Makarov said Iran has become the leading focus of the Kremlin. He said the Defense Ministry has established a center to closely monitor Iran and the rest of the Middle East. Makarov said international pressure on Iran has been growing and could be followed by military action. He said the current sanctions on Teheran could lead to a confrontation in mid-2012. –World Tribune


Makarov? War? Sounds like Call of Duty to me....lol
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
U.S. officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely- Russia prepares military response
Posted on February 18, 2012

February 18, 2012 – WASHINGTON - Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear program, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so. The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures, such as the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo, to bite deeper into Iran’s already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran. But there is a strong current of opinion within the administration – including in the Pentagon and the state department – that believes sanctions are doomed to fail, and that their principal use now is in delaying Israeli military action, as well as reassuring Europe that an attack will only come after other means have been tested. “The White House wants to see sanctions work. This is not the Bush White House. It does not need another conflict,” said an official knowledgeable on Middle East policy. “Its problem is that the guys in Tehran are behaving like sanctions don’t matter, like their economy isn’t collapsing, like Israel isn’t going to do anything. Sanctions are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it’s hard to see how we don’t move to the ‘in extremis’ option.” The White House has said repeatedly that all options are on the table, including the use of force to stop Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, but that for now the emphasis is firmly on diplomacy and sanctions. But long-held doubts among US officials about whether the Iranians can be enticed or cajoled into serious negotiations have been reinforced by recent events. “We don’t see a way forward,” said one official. “The record shows that there is nothing to work with.” Scepticism about Iranian intent is rooted in Iran’s repeated spurning of overtures from successive U.S. presidents from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama, who appealed within weeks of coming to office for “constructive ties” and “mutual respect.” -Telegraph

MOSCOW prepares military response for Iranian attack — Russia has been preparing for the prospect of an Israeli or U.S. air strike on Iran in 2012. Officials said the Kremlin has ordered the military to draft options for a Russian response to any foreign attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. They said the Defense Ministry has established a facility to monitor Teheran, an ally and trading partner of Moscow. Russian Chief of Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov “Iran, of course, is a sore spot,” Russian Chief of Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said. Makarov said Iran has become the leading focus of the Kremlin. He said the Defense Ministry has established a center to closely monitor Iran and the rest of the Middle East. Makarov said international pressure on Iran has been growing and could be followed by military action. He said the current sanctions on Teheran could lead to a confrontation in mid-2012. –World Tribune
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WxGeekVA jumps off of snow train as it crashes into a mountainside after the 0Z NAM....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
LOL GEEK, NAM LOVES ME HATES YOU.

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327. wxmod 7:26 PM EST on February 17, 2012
Dr. Frankenstein's monster off San Francisco today (geoengineering, for those who don't know what it's called yet
)

You need to switch dealers. Stuff you're smoking is making you paranoid. Why not worry about a real conspiracy like the one Dr. M wrote about.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Miami NWS Discussion

RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA,
WITH FORECAST OF 86 AT MIAMI AND WEST PALM BEACH TYING THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE IF IT PANS OUT.
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[q]There are hundreds of thousands of underwater volcanoes, with the overall increase in volcanic activity above ground is not logical to assume the same could be happening under water?[/q]

No.

The amount of magma ABOVE HISTORICAL MEAN that would need to be released at 1300C to represent the observed forcing 2 watts for 1 year is 6673 cubic kilometers, give or take.

This is the energy equivalent of two or three VEI 8 eruptions per year, or 20 to 30 Tambora per year, or 200 to 300 Krakatoa's per year or 30,000 to 36,500 Kilawaeas per year...

....and this would need to be in addition to whatever the mean long term oceanic volcanic heat is, in order to represent any forcing.

Even if these eruptions were somehow happening extremely gradually, i.e "extra" hydrothermal vents, etc, it should be obvious to oceanographers, since such anomalous and obscenely HUGE bottom heating would be immediately obvious.

The world's various nations' navy submarines would have detected concentrated bottom heating of this magnitude easily.

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An excellent entry.
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As concerns over Iran’s nuclear program escalate, Obama sends national security adviser to Israel
By Olivier Knox | The Ticket – 3 hrs ago

At a crucial time in the standoff over Iran's suspect nuclear weapon, President Obama is sending his national security adviser to Israel from February 18-20 to discuss that tense showdown as well as the bloody crackdown in Syria, the White House announced Friday.

Tom Donilon will meet with senior Israeli officials to discuss "a range of issues, including Iran, Syria," the White House said in a statement.

--------- They should include the ones behind.....Russia an China....
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Big storm NWest Conus
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
0Z NAM is running. Weather weenies everywhere hold their breath in anticipation!


I AM NOT A WEATHER WEENIE.


I am a weather and adrenaline junkie!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
In N GA , I am again north of the severe weather and south of the snow.
Weather is so disappointing.

Good Night.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.


lol why not?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting WxGeekVA:
0Z NAM is running. Weather weenies everywhere hold their breath in anticipation!

No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
0Z NAM is running. Weather weenies everywhere hold their breath in anticipation!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting aburttschell:


My contention is that the most recent data, albeit a small point in time compared to the earths existence, is the most credible data we have. And how is 30 years any more reliable when comparing it to the even to existence of man?


This is why we can't have nice things.

We have a lot more data than 30 years. A 30 year time span is considered climatologically significant. Time periods less than 30 years in length are considered less representative due to the noise introduced by weather.

Your "existence of man" comment seems to be rather random. Paleoclimate records go back significantly farther than the existence of man, and currently the temperature hasn't been this warm since the Holocene optimum, and the CO2 levels haven't been this high since the Miocene.

Thats approximately .05% compared to .017%.


Again, you seem to be drawing some strange conclusion based on time. This is the type of argument made by someone who doesn't understand the science.


The IPCC projected the earth would warm 1 C the first decade of the 21st century and instead it has actually cooled slightly.


No they didn't. Not even close. From the summary of the report:
The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 2 to 11.5°F (1.1-6.4°C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 3.2 to 7.2°F (1.8-4.0°C)

This doesn't allow for questioning? How can a theory predicated on the warming of 1 C in the first decade of this century and 4 C-6 C by the end of the century not be called in to question when the earliest results show the exact opposite happening?


If you actually researched the matter and postulated a sensible question, then we could have a discussion. Trying to question science that you don't understand based on assumptions or information that is clearly false doesn't get you anywhere.

This is a serious question btw and leads to my major contention towards AGW. This, in conjunction with CO2 being the variable that effects climate.


No it isn't. You're either ignorant, deliberately misrepresenting the facts, or fabricating for your own purposes.

There are hundreds of thousands of underwater volcanoes, with the overall increase in volcanic activity above ground is not logical to assume the same could be happening under water?


If you assume that every single scientist is an idiot and every single seismologist is a drooling buffoon, then yes that is a logical assumption. However, since scientists aren't idiots and seismologists are not buffoons, your "logical assumption" is nonsense. That's not something they would miss. In fact, I'm pretty sure everyone one the planet would notice something like that.

Could this vast amount of energy not contribute to ocean temps?


Really? Look, do the math. The kind of energy that would need to pumped into billions of metric tons of seawater to influence surface temperatures to the degree we are seeing is so enormous that saying we WOULDN'T notice it would be like not noticing the sun going out. If undersea volcanic activity were to increase to any such level most sea life would be dead , and we would be right on it's heels. You're talking well beyond supervolcano at that point.

And why sun cycles so quickly discredited when past climate events are tied to decreased and increased activity?


They're "discredited" because over climate scales solar cycles don't appreciably affect the amount of heat the Earth receives. In general, solar mins and maxes cancels out. And during all those solar mins and maxes, the temperatures still climbed during the past century.

Scientists are not stupid, regardless of what your opinion is.

These are my reservations when it comes to climate change. I'm not claiming to be as well informed as some as you but I do have some common sense, there are a number of ways to look at the same situation.


Your reservation are based on ignorance of the subject material. Climate science is not necessarily intuitive or "common sense". It is not an "easy" subject. It is a cross-discipline subject that pulls in everything from meteorology to chemistry to geology. IT IS HARD. Reading a few anti-science climate blogs and charting a few data points with a regression line doesn't give you an understanding of the science nor is it even remotely the kind of argument that would stand up under even the basic scientific scrutiny.

Pretty much all your arguments (and many more denier type arguments) are countered in the IPCC report, which is actually a good source if you really do wish to get a broad understanding of the science. If that isn't enough, there are tons of books, online resources, source code, and data for you to dig through.
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Quoting nymore:
Aburttschell is right it technically has cooled for the last decade.

GISS anomaly 2002 was 0.79 for 2011 it was 0.77

HADCRUT anomaly 2002 was 0.455 for 2011 it was 0.342

NCDC anomaly 2002 was 0.5923 for 2011 it was 0.5117

I don't see warming do you

Perhaps you will when you learn what a trend is. Good luck!
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Quoting wxmod:
Dr. Frankenstein's monster off San Francisco today (geoengineering, for those who don't know what it's called yet)


Looks like clouds to me.
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356. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
6:00 AM FST February 18 2012
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1009 hPa) located at 20.5S 160.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 hpa. Td13f lies to the south of 250hpa ridge axis in a moderate to high sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

At this stage TD 13F is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, there will be no more forecast for TD 13F
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Quoting SPLbeater:


Eastern Kentucky, south and east West Virginia, northwest Virginia are under Winter Storm Watches. Link


I'm only 2 counties northeast of those in NW VA...D'oh!!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
351. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
9:00 AM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.9N 112.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.2N 110.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
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350. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 18 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (978 hPa) located at 26.5S 43.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
45 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.6S 47.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 26.2S 46.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.5S 50.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.2S 51.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna keeps on intensifying and now show a ragged eye pattern with a rauw manual DT at 4.5. Present intensity estimation is based on DT 6 hours average (DT interpolated during met7 eclipse period according to msg imagery). Upper level divergence is excellent to the south with enhanced outflow on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge but rather limited to the north.

Giovanna is still located between two mid level highs generating contradictory steering flows over the system. Tomorrow, the eastern ridge is likely to shift gradually eastwards and Giovanna should be steered by an westerly to west northwesterly flow on the southeastern border of the mid level highs located over south Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-lat westerlies. On this pattern, the system should gradually accelerate on a eastwards to east northeastwards track. Beyond Sunday night, guidance are still in poor agreement with two possibilities: a continuing eastwards track or a rather sharp northwards turn along the southeastern coasts of Madagascar. Latest ECMWF ensemble output give a stronger weight to the eastwards solution ... so is the current forecast.

Environmental conditions should continue to improve today with a better outflow equatorward. The intensity forecast is a little bit more agressive but could be somewhat conservative as it remains below the ALDIN and ECMWF solution that bring Giovanna to the tropical cyclone level ... Monday and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate with lower upper level divergence, stronger shear and a low to mid-level dry air intrusion from the southwest associated to a surge of subtropical high pressure.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system: if the current forecast leave the system more offshore than previously, a landfall of Giovanna, mainly over coastal areas between cap Sainte-Marie and Fort-Dauphin , still cannot be ruled out Saturday night or Sunday! Regardless of this potential landfall, weather conditions should deteriorate over this area later today or tonight with strong winds (gusts up to 100 km/h) and heavy rains spells.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 2:04 PM CST on February 17, 2012

... Accumulating snow possible on Sunday across the mid state...

A strong low pressure system will move across the Gulf Coast
states on Saturday. As the low passes off to our east on
Sunday... colder air spreading into the mid state behind the system
is expected to allow for initial rain to mix with and eventually
change over to all snow in the afternoon hours.

Considerable uncertainty exists on various details with this
storm system... including how cold temperatures will be and the
exact track. However... the potential exists for accumulating
snowfall on Sunday... with the best chances for snow east of
Interstate 65 and 24 and on the Cumberland Plateau. Expected
accumulation amounts range from a dusting in central middle
Tennessee and increasing to 1 to 2 inches for the Cumberland
Plateau region. Updates to these forecasted amounts may be
warranted as the newer model data becomes available.

If you are planning to travel across middle Tennessee Saturday
night or Sunday... be prepared for possible winter weather
conditions... especially traveling into northeastern Tennessee.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the
latest updates on this potential winter storm situation.


Tb12
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just noticed how many flood watches/warnings the NWS has up right now... Much of eastern TX, almost all of LA, and southern MS and AL are all under watches or warnings


Eastern Kentucky, south and east West Virginia, northwest Virginia are under Winter Storm Watches. Link
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WU 'Best Forecast' is giving us (mid TN) snow Sunday am from 0600-1200.. my kids will be VERY disappointed!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just noticed how many flood watches/warnings the NWS has up right now... Much of eastern TX, almost all of LA, and southern MS and AL are all under watches or warnings


Yep, we're pretty soggy over this way and it has finally started to rain. So it won't take much. But looks like the bulk of the rain will be to our east.

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Quoting tampahurricane:
Me and some friends are planing on driving up to Mobile Alabama to chase and video this potential sever weather outbreak. What are the predictions for the severity of this potential outbreak in your guys opinion? Also does Mobile sound like a good spot to be stationed for this event?


Chasing? On the gulf coast? With these storm motions?

Pick a good spot. Wait for storms to move in. Be lucky. Maybe get a second shot if you are extra lucky.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
That's assuming greenhouse gases are the only thing influencing global temperatures though. Increased ghgs increase heat trapped, but ghgs are not the only thing influencing global temperatures. Insolation, surface albedo, cloud cover, volcanoes, concentration, of other gases, etcetera, etcetera all influence how much radiation enters Earth's system, how much is absorbed, and how much goes out which in turn determines the total heat within Earth's system.

Aside from that, our ability to measure the heat within Earth's system is incredibly poor so temperature trends in our records do not perfectly reflect the total amount of heat.


I didn't say that it would disprove the theory, just provide evidence against it. It takes more than one piece of evidence to show something like that. As far as the sources of climate changes... you're preaching to the choir, my friend. :)

I would say that your statement on our ability to account for the energy of the climate system is selling us short, just a little bit. We know what the largest heat sinks would be through physics. And we are monitoring the air, water, and ice more and more all the time.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just noticed how many flood watches/warnings the NWS has up right now... Much of eastern TX, almost all of LA, and southern MS and AL are all under watches or warnings
they are on the receiving end of the bulk of the weather
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
850mb run shows temps no colder than -4 c in upper levels and its very short they warm back up into 8 to 10 c within 24 hrs after passage of event anything that falls will be gone 6 to 12 hrs later don't expect much


i dont care if it accumilates. i wanna see some falling, so i can call it winter weather. and go play with my puppy in it.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:


all the GFS did was bring the snowfall line to the north, not turn it into rain. NAM still gives snow, so....
850mb run shows temps no colder than -4 c in upper levels and its very short they warm back up into 8 to 10 c within 24 hrs after passage of event anything that falls will be gone 6 to 12 hrs later don't expect much
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I just noticed how many flood watches/warnings the NWS has up right now... Much of eastern TX, almost all of LA, and southern MS and AL are all under watches or warnings
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS brings snow to here. Looks like a dusting is possible. I'm excited. :D


It give me an inch, HAHAHA I beat u lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
I have been trying to tell my friend in wilmington why they need a weather radio....and obviously she doesnt git it :/


Who here would die in a night time tornado, rather then waking up to a weather radio siren saying a tornado warning is in effect? NOBODY!!!(She doesnt get this)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:


all the GFS did was bring the snowfall line to the north, not turn it into rain. NAM still gives snow, so....

The GFS brings snow to here. Looks like a dusting is possible. I'm excited. :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
[Removed]
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temps appear to be around the 34 to 36 f mark may be all cold rain

Depends how hard the precip is falling... You can get all snow at 34-36 if it falls hard enough
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temps appear to be around the 34 to 36 f mark may be all cold rain

34-36 will have sleet/freezing rain mixed in.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
Quoting SPLbeater:
The GFS is a fickle creature...

after the 12Z run with an inch o snow, it now shows no snow! Isnt that something.....

NWS hasnt changed. Freezing rain still there.
temps appear to be around the 34 to 36 f mark may be all cold rain
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[Removed]
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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