Heartland Institute documents reveal strategy of attacks against climate science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on February 17, 2012

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Documents illegally leaked from the Heartland Institute, one of the most active groups engaged in attacking the science of climate change, provide an unprecedented look into how these groups operate. The story was broken Tuesday by DeSmogBlog, a website dedicated to exposing false claims about climate change science. The documents reveal that donors to Heartland included oil billionaire Charles Koch, and Heartland has spent several million dollars over the past five years to undermine climate science. Tens of thousands of dollars are slated to go this year to well-known climate contrarians S.Fred Singer, Craig Idso, and Anthony Watts of the Watts Up With That? website. Naturally, the leaked documents have lit up the blogosphere, but none of the revelations are particularly surprising. The U.S. has a very successful and well-funded climate change denial industry, primarily funded by fossil fuel companies, that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few decades on a PR campaign against climate change science. I made a lengthy post on the subject in 2009 called, The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy. I won't say more here, but getenergysmartnow.com has compiled a long list of blogs that have interesting posts on the Heartland Institute affair for those interested in following this story.



Eight books challenging the Manufactured Doubt industry
Important scientific findings should always be challenged with the goal of finding flaws and improving our scientific understanding. But there's nothing a scientist hates more than to see good science attacked and the reputations of good scientists smeared in name of protecting corporate profits or ideology. A number of scientists have fought back against the recent unfounded assaults on climate change science by publishing books calling attention to the Manufactured Doubt industry's tactics and goals. Anyone priding themselves on being a open-minded skeptic of human-caused global warming should challenge their skepticism by reading one of these works. I thought so highly of Unscientific America, Merchants of Doubt, and Climate Coverup, that I donated 50 copies of these books to undergraduates at the University of Michigan last year. Here's a short synopsis of eight books published in the past three years defending climate change science against the attacks of the Manufactured Doubt industry:

Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. If you're going to read one book on the attacks on climate science, this should probably be the one--Dr. Oreskes, a history professor at UC San Diego, was voted climate change communicator of the year in 2011. A review of Merchants of Doubt and a video of her defending her book against skeptics is at climateprogress.org, my favorite website for staying current on the politics of climate change. From the review: "Make the journey with them, and you’ll see renowned scientists abandon science, you’ll see environmentalism equated with communism, and you’ll discover the connection between the Cold War and climate denial. And for the most part, you’ll be entertained along the way."

Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming, by desmogblog.com co-founders James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. It's another fascinating and very readable book.

Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future, by science writer Chris Mooney. He writes a blog focusing on science communication called the intersection. This is a fantastic book, and should be required reading for all college science majors.

Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand, by Haydn Washington and John Cook. John Cook writes for one of my favorite climate science blogs, skepticalscience.com, which focuses on debunking false skeptic claims about climate science. The book does a great job debunking all the classic climate change denial arguments.

Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health, by George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who now heads the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA). This meticulously-researched book has just one chapter on climate change, and focuses more on tobacco and hazardous chemicals. About the the tobacco industry's Manufactured Doubt campaigns, Michaels wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy".

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, by climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann. Dr. Mann is the originator of the much-debated "hockey stick" graph of global temperatures over the past 1,000 years, which looks like a hockey stick due to the sharp increase in temperatures in recent decades. This book just came out last week, and I hope to write a review on it this spring. Dr. Mann is one of the main contributors to my favorite web site for staying current on climate change research, realclimate.org. John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "an eye-opening account of the lengths the opponents of climate science will go to in their campaign to slander climate scientists and distract the public from the realities of human caused global warming."

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto. I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but it looks interesting. A review by Katherine O’Konski of Climate Science Watch called the book "a fascinating look at the status of science in American society."

The Inquisition of Climate Science, by Dr. James Lawrence Powell, a geochemist with a distinguished career as a college teacher, college president, museum director, and author of books on earth science for general audiences. I haven't read it, but John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand the full scope of the denial industry and their modern day persecution of climate science."

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be taking a few vacation days next week, and wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz will probably be doing most of the blogging for me during the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Iran claims warships have entered the Mediterranean- Israel%u2019s navy put on alert
Posted on February 18, 2012

February 18, 2012 %u2013 IRAN %u2013 Iran%u2019s navy claimed its warships entered the Mediterranean on Saturday to show its %u2018might%u2019 to regional countries, as a high-level American official was due to arrive in Israel. The claim, released through the official Iranian news agency, came at a time of growing speculation that Israel will launch airstrikes against Iran%u2019s nuclear program. %u201CThe strategic navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has passed through the Suez Canal for the second time since the (1979) Islamic Revolution,%u201D said navy commander Admiral Habibollah Sayari.


Man.

What the heck are they thinking?

I figure same old BS, just try to scare people into being indecisive.

I guess we're back to the same old 70's and 80's cold war crap, with Russia and China just sitting on their hands letting Iran stir up trouble.

I hope they aren't stupid enough to launch an open attack against the Israelis from the Mediterranean.

Israel has advanced countermeasures and superior air power. It will not go well for the Iranians on that front. Plus, they'll really piss off America and western Europe if they try this anyway.


Maybe they are sending aid to the Syrian government to put down this uprising, which is unfortunate that a civil war may escalate to a regional or global conflict.


Come to think of it, if Israel really is planning an attack soon, they may as well go ahead and sink this fleet first.

If you're going to start a pre-emptive war, then free kills of the enemy navy should never be passed up.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
These are some fast moving storms...

TORNADO WARNING
MSC045-047-182030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0012.120218T1950Z-120218T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KILN...OR 9
MILES WEST OF DIAMONDHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 8918 3044 8914 3037 8954 3047 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 248DEG 42KT 3045 8945

$$

CAB



once last summer, my weather radio went off at night due to bow echo moving through my area at 80 mph
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Closing fast as winds are from the South ,and the Dark western Scene a coming fast..Low scud with it.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
You beat me Pat!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
These are some fast moving storms...

TORNADO WARNING
MSC045-047-182030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0012.120218T1950Z-120218T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KILN...OR 9
MILES WEST OF DIAMONDHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 8918 3044 8914 3037 8954 3047 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 248DEG 42KT 3045 8945

$$

CAB

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033

548
WFUS54 KLIX 181950
TORLIX
MSC045-047-182030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0012.120218T1950Z-120218T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KILN...OR 9
MILES WEST OF DIAMONDHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3062 8918 3044 8914 3037 8954 3047 8957
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting bappit:

"Obviously plants are not keeping up with the CO2 and methane we're releasing."
I did not say they were. Read more closely. I'm only referring to what comes from vegetable sources. Peat, coal, petroleum, natural gas are all mineral. Did you ever play twenty questions?

"We can see warming results from when man first begin to grow rice centuries ago."
I'd need a source for that. When did people start growing rice? How do we know warming start then?

"But during the last 100 years we've stepped up our game...."
It is a whole different game. The distinction between vegetable and mineral may sound silly, but it really is crucial. CO2 cycles in and out of the biosphere on a regular basis. The release of what has been sequestered over the course of many millions of years in a geological instant is the issue. CO2 from dams is a red herring.


I can give you only the abstract. If you wish to read the entire paper you can purchase it...

"Abstract

We propose that humans significantly altered atmospheric CH4 levels after 5000 years BP and that anthropogenic inputs just prior to the industrial revolution accounted for up to 25% of the CH4 level of 725 ppb (parts per billion).

We base this hypothesis on three arguments: (1) the 100 ppb increase in atmospheric CH4 that occurred after 5000 years BP follows a pattern unprecedented in any prior orbitally driven change in the ice-core record; (2) non-anthropogenic explanations for this increase (expansion of boreal peat lands or tropical wetlands) are inconsistent with existing evidence; and (3) inefficient early rice farming is a quantitatively plausible means of producing anomalously large CH4 inputs to the atmosphere prior to the industrial revolution. If the areas flooded for farming harbored abundant CH4-producing weeds, disproportionately large amounts of CH4 would have been produced in feeding relatively small pre-industrial populations."

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0277379101000671

--

This started when I posted the factual statement that more than 50% of the methane now released is due to human activity. I gave you a link for that claim.

Now, whether the methane is from vegetation or "minerals" is not important. What is important is that humans are more than doubling the methane in our atmospheric.

I don't quite get your classification of natural gas as a mineral. Natural gas, like coal and oil, comes from plant/animal sources. Peat is certainly not a mineral by any stretch of the imagination.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is also in the GFS's dreamland, but the 00Z tends to be more accurate than other runs.





that's 384hrs out...doesn't matter if its that 0z or the 6z/18z, 384hrs out is incredibly inaccurate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
MSC039-041-182015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0007.120218T1936Z-120218T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
136 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 136 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES EAST OF
WIGGINS...OR 16 MILES EAST OF PERKINSTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LUCEDALE AROUND 200 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MANUFACTURED HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8888 3091 8883 3098 8883 3106 8844
3101 8842 3088 8842 3078 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 249DEG 33KT 3087 8884

$$

JP/MB
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Iran claims warships have entered the Mediterranean- Israel’s navy put on alert
Posted on February 18, 2012

February 18, 2012 – IRAN – Iran’s navy claimed its warships entered the Mediterranean on Saturday to show its ‘might’ to regional countries, as a high-level American official was due to arrive in Israel. The claim, released through the official Iranian news agency, came at a time of growing speculation that Israel will launch airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program. “The strategic navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has passed through the Suez Canal for the second time since the (1979) Islamic Revolution,” said navy commander Admiral Habibollah Sayari. .................................................. ...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


28storms Sitting in Mobile, AL, & waiting to deploy. #Tornado Watch now in effect. #mswx #alwx about 1 hour ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Funnel cloud now reported near Duson, LA moving NE @ 40mph. #lawx 3 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms SPC plans on issuing a #Tornado Watch for SE Louisiana by 12:30 local time. Increased potential this afternoon. #lawx 4 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Lafayette, LA, you're now under a #Tornado Warning so take cover. #lawx 4 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Power lines downed and a tree on a house in Jennings, LA #lawx 4 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Power lines blown down just north of Sulphur, LA #lawx 4 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Anyone living near Lafayette & Crowley, LA, should be keeping up with the impressive #Tornao-warned cell to the southwest #lawx 4 hours ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms #Flood warnings issued for SE TX with more likely over the Gulf Coast today/tonight fb.me/vJLIHZLX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Ewwwww-wee, itsa rumbling and stumblin on in from the West..

Might be a few spinners in there too..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
....RTS...There are some good books by Eckhart Tolle and Deepak Chopra that may be of help to you....Many of the chapters explain the intricacies of human interaction in a simple and easily comprehensible fashion. By no means do I agree with everything I read, but they make very real and valid points on such a sophisticated subject.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...

DISCUSSION...MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT SVR MCS CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST LA. EXPECT THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DELTA TO MOBILE BAY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGER SYNOPTIC LOW TAKES FORM ACROSS THE WRN
GULF. WITH TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...OVERALL SVR STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS
TREND...FORCED ASCENT WITH THE MESOLOW...AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE THAT PARCELS BECOME SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE
MESOSLOW AS IT SPREADS EAST TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF OCCASIONAL STORM
INTENSIFICATION AND A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...CARBIN
ah now the watches extend into florida, tomorrow ought to get mighty interesting..70 mph winds?, inch and a half hail? gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting Patrap:
Ewwwww-wee, itsa rumbling and stumblin on in from the West..



Looks like nothin too bad, enjoy those afternoon boomers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Off Topic for a moment as the Soufriere Volcano in the Eastern Caribbean island of Montserrat is showing some signs of life today. Hopefully,it quiets down again and is not a precursor of a big eruption.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Pat - found my fave New Awlins restaurant over New Years. Jacques Imo's.

The wait to get seated was pretty bad (hr and a half) but WELL worth it. Man I want to go back to NO so bad.


It is a fine place,glad you enjoyed it here Uptown.

Jacques

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Ewwwww-wee, itsa rumbling and stumblin on in from the West..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting Jedkins01:



Northwest Pacific? Are you going on a pilgrimage to Japan?

lol


nope! i just feel like tracking around the world...:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting EllenPettit:

If you lack the ability to keep up with intelligent scientific discussions; don't worry, I'm sure Anthony Watts will leave his door open for you. ;-)


One of Alinskys rules for Radicals is to demean the opposition, and to make them seem stupid, commrade Ellen your fitting right in, with the rest if the dividers!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
Just printed out my Northwest Pacific typhoon tracking chart...it is official, i am tracking every single basin this year :D

Might get busy...



Northwest Pacific? Are you going on a pilgrimage to Japan?

lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
Pat - found my fave New Awlins restaurant over New Years. Jacques Imo's.

The wait to get seated was pretty bad (hr and a half) but WELL worth it. Man I want to go back to NO so bad.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Interesting comparison. I was just looking at the 12Z GFS and where it had initialized the low, the strength of the low, and the high pressure on the east coast. He has a very valid point, which makes more sense than lots of the other mets out there using models instead of current surface obs for their forecasts...


I'm north-casting! I want to see snow so bad. I was up here in '09/'10 and am moving back to Texas (I think Beaumont) sometime this summer so this storm is my last chance.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Just printed out my Northwest Pacific typhoon tracking chart...it is official, i am tracking every single basin this year :D

Might get busy...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
If you dont know what the truth is on climate models, I'll tell you.

EVERY climate model..since 2001, has underplayed the actual's.

Food fer thought as you consider your Gubernatorial Choice next time.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
This met in Baltimore has some interesting analysis of the low pressure system in Tx. I'm rooting for snow in Arlington, VA!!!
Link

Here's an image of his analysis in case anyone doesn't have Facebook but is interested.


Interesting comparison. I was just looking at the 12Z GFS and where it had initialized the low, the strength of the low, and the high pressure on the east coast. He has a very valid point, which makes more sense than lots of the other mets out there using models instead of current surface obs for their forecasts...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dreamland for the GFS but look:



wats that
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Patrap:
Granted human beings have affected the global climate, but to what exact degree cannot really be known. There really is no way to be sure how human damage will affect the global climate in the future as apposed to what it would have been without human contribution or now with human contribution natural climate shift.

Thats not factual at all. We know how and why and by what easily.

If you read up on things u would know it, instead of running it thru ones ego/belief/ideology system.

That taints any fact for many...and the Record is clear on that issue.

Science has no dog in the discussion, it is empirical to say the least.



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration



Accuse me all you may about running through an ego/belief/ideology, but I will let time be the judge of accuracy and truth :)

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not much wind right now.

It's just very heavy rain, which we don't mind.

If the seasonal forecast is true, we need all the rain we can get right now to prepare for the drought that's coming.

This is Louisiana. It can rain 5 or 10 inches here and not hurt anybody except the lowest lying water traps. It usually just soaks right up or runs off with no trouble.



Yeah that's how it is here in Florida too. I am always shocked to see different parts of the country have water rescues and houses getting swept away from a rainfall event that just causes pockets of temporary street flooding for this area.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
Quoting hydrus:..........That is an extraordinary talent. I remember numbers and dates very well, and for some reason math problems ( most of them ) I do better in my head. I do not why.


Yes, well, unfortunately, it's also a symptom of borderline or higher functioning savant syndrome.

Its very difficult for me to resolve moral or ethical paradoxes at work or any situation, or social behavior when general principles appear to contradict one another.

It explains a lot about my past, and unlike most with similar issues, I can explain most of what goes on in my mind. I just can't seem to be able to change it much regarding social interaction.

On one level, I know what love, friendship, and relationships are and should be, but I never obtain those things. People who have "real" savant syndrome or severe cases of Aspergers are not supposed to recognize those things much at all. I do, it's just I somehow cannot apply them to others in most cases to form ordinary, meaningful relationships.

I am on anxiety medicines now, and it stops the panic attacks and the physical symptoms, but it does not solve or help me make connections with other people.

In person, I am different than on the internet; I can encounter someone and want to talk to them, but cannot figure out how or what to say, as ridiculous as that is. If the other person doesn't talk first, it just isn't going to happen no matter how much I would like it to, and even if it somehow does, it's not a "connection", its me talking about something totally irrelevant that nobody wants to hear anyway. That's just how I've always been. I hate that, and I've tried to change it all my life, but it never changes.

I spend a lot of time on the computer now. I don't know why, it hasn't helped me in that regard. The verbal I.Q. of 123 is inflated by the fact I spend so much time on Google or Wikipedia, and read King James version English, and took two foreign languages (nowhere near fluency though,) and read Tolkien, Asimov, and Hawking in high school. I've found myself lying in bed at times and my subconscious mind reminds me of a word who's precise definition I have forgotten, so I go look it up. I tested with MENSA and High I.Q. society about 10 years ago and scored 136 once and 144 another time for general I.Q., but it doesn't help me in life.

It would be nice to at least find some sort of practical use for any of this, instead of it being a grief and a distraction. It would be nice just to be a normal person, instead of whatever it is that I am or have done to myself.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
This is also in the GFS's dreamland, but the 00Z tends to be more accurate than other runs.





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Quoting nash28:
Could really use the rain here in Charleston, SC. Looks like we're finally gonna get a good soaking overnight tonight into tomorrow.


You comin' out for Folly Gras?
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Granted human beings have affected the global climate, but to what exact degree cannot really be known. There really is no way to be sure how human damage will affect the global climate in the future as apposed to what it would have been without human contribution or now with human contribution natural climate shift.

Thats not factual at all. We know how and why and by what easily.

If you read up on things u would know it, instead of running it thru ones ego/belief/ideology system.

That taints any fact for many...and the Record is clear on that issue.

Science has no dog in the discussion, it is empirical to say the least.



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
This met in Baltimore has some interesting analysis of the low pressure system in Tx. I'm rooting for snow in Arlington, VA!!!
Link

Here's an image of his analysis in case anyone doesn't have Facebook but is interested.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Being willfully ignorant of the affects climate change is having and will continue to have on weather shows a disdain for science that borders on the imbecilic.

Science isn't opinion. If you're willing to accept one part of the science (meteorology) and outright reject another (climatology), you either have a massive amount of cognitive dissonance or don't really understand the science. How can the physics of radiative transfer and atmospheric dynamics be correct in one case, but be wrong in another? How can the same physics yield two different answers for the exact same situation? That is the dichotomy you subscribe to when accepting the science of chemistry, meteorology, etc. but rejecting climatology, which is built upon those well established branches of science.

Now you're absolutely free to swallow the load of crap the spews forth for groups like the Heartland Institute or sites like CA and WUWT. It's a free country after all, and we don't have laws against being greedy and/or stupid. But this is Dr. M's blog. He can do what he pleases with it. If he wants to write post about painting rainbows and unicorns on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft because he thinks it will improve morale, then he can. If you don't like it, or can't stand having facts get in the way of your perception of reality, then by all means go somewhere else.


There is the assumption that because weather prediction has improved, that means we can now rely on predictions of climate 40 to 60 years into the future, its so ridiculous that its comical, really, lol.


Granted human beings have affected the global climate, but to what exact degree cannot really be known. There really is no way to be exactly sure how human damage will affect the global climate in the future as apposed to what it would have been without human contribution or now with human contribution natural climate shift. We can make educated guesses based on lab experiments and current climate and meteorological knowledge, but that's about it.

The climate of the earth is extremely complex, we as humans are just scratching the surface of this science of weather and climate, so when I am told that my home in the Tampa Bay area will be underwater from sea level rise when I am a grandfather, I do laugh. Not because I am a denier of climate change, no sir there is real science there indeed. But I laugh when people make these projections and treat them like they are fact.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we shouldn't have them, but they need to stay in the lab where they belong, not exist outside the lab as tools for political propaganda.
Science needs to get the heck out of politics, I love science, but we can't expect science to become the tool to save the planet, as soon as people are willing to give up their freedom in the name of "science" that's when things get really ugly. Granted you may mock me, but I'm really not concerned about that. Unfortunately very few seem to pay close attention to history and how mankind gets into trouble, us humans so easily get caught up exchanging wisdom for some new school of thought that sounds exciting but really is a sugar coated remake of an already failed philosophy.

Its funny, people arrogantly act like science is opening the mind form blind religion and superstition, in some ways that's true. However for science is becoming a new religion whether you admit it or not, its a new god. Human beings always find their way back to religion one way or another, hmmm I wonder why that might be? There's nothing new under the sun, man.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
"We can see warming results from when man first begin to grow rice centuries ago."

This is the kind of statement that a denialist would love to talk about all day. It really is irrelevant.
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Dreamland for the GFS but look:

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...

DISCUSSION...MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT SVR MCS CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST LA. EXPECT THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DELTA TO MOBILE BAY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGER SYNOPTIC LOW TAKES FORM ACROSS THE WRN
GULF. WITH TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...OVERALL SVR STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS
TREND...FORCED ASCENT WITH THE MESOLOW...AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE THAT PARCELS BECOME SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE
MESOSLOW AS IT SPREADS EAST TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF OCCASIONAL STORM
INTENSIFICATION AND A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...CARBIN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting SPLbeater:


so more snow to North Carolina forecast there?
I am waiting for the next GFS run before I take a guess, but the stronger that low gets, more areas affected by snow....i think...;o
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TORNADO WARNING
LAC103-117-MSC109-181915-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0009.120218T1821Z-120218T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1219 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SUN...OR 8
MILES SOUTH OF BOGALUSA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MCNEIL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3068 8934 3065 8952 3065 8954 3064 8955
3058 8988 3068 8995 3085 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 253DEG 35KT 3067 8986

$$

CAB
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
586. bappit

That line has a lot of energy Morphing around as it glides east @ 40-50mph.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting Patrap:

Looking at that radar loop I can see what they mean by a serial squall line being oriented parallel to the general flow. From here:

"TWO BASIC PATTERNS OF SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

Progressive:

Length of squall line/bow echo relatively short and curved, and oriented perpendicular to mean environmental wind. Line bulges/bows downwind which is associated with downburst activity. Warm season bow echoes associated with high instability and an east-west surface front often exhibit a progressive pattern.

Serial:

Length of squall line/bow echo usually extensive (much longer than progressive type) and oriented nearly parallel to mean environmental wind direction. Within squall line, a series of line echo wave patterns (LEWPs) and bow echoes often occur, resulting in damaging winds and possible transient tornadoes. High precipitation (HP) supercell characteristics sometimes can occur within organized, long-lived bowing line segments within serial squall lines. Dynamically-induced cool season events often exhibit a serial pattern."

Edit: the labels serial and progressive are a bit goofy.
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Could really use the rain here in Charleston, SC. Looks like we're finally gonna get a good soaking overnight tonight into tomorrow.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


YW. Hope this crap rolls through before Endymion is scheduled to roll late afternoon. That is the best parade. Well, except for Hermes. Hermes was my favorite in '08!


A lil look at Morpheus as it rolled Thursday Night Uptown, we thinking about you ..be safe up dat way as well.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting BobWallace:


Obviously plants are not keeping up with the CO2 and methane we're releasing.

We can see warming results from when man first begin to grow rice centuries ago. But during the last 100 years we've stepped up our game....



"Obviously plants are not keeping up with the CO2 and methane we're releasing."
I did not say they were. Read more closely. I'm only referring to what comes from vegetable sources. Peat, coal, petroleum, natural gas are all mineral. Did you ever play twenty questions?

"We can see warming results from when man first begin to grow rice centuries ago."
I'd need a source for that. When did people start growing rice? How do we know warming start then?

"But during the last 100 years we've stepped up our game...."
It is a whole different game. The distinction between vegetable and mineral may sound silly, but it really is crucial. CO2 cycles in and out of the biosphere on a regular basis. The release of what has been sequestered over the course of many millions of years in a geological instant is the issue. CO2 from dams is a red herring.
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Quoting hydrus:
This storm may pack more of a punch than originally thought...And the latest Euro run has it a little south of the previous run..


so more snow to North Carolina forecast there?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
This storm may pack more of a punch than originally thought...And the latest Euro run has it a little south of the previous run..
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Louisiana has definately been the severe weather spotlight so far today
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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