January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

Share this Blog
29
+

January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 56 - 6

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Quoting KeyWestSun:

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 foot cliff sometime and let me know what happpens. No, don't. Really. Don't do that.


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks for the clarification.


Anytime. Physics major... I have to know these things haha.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 cliff sometime and let me know what happpens.


Gravity is not a law, there are "Laws of Gravity" but the whole concept of gravity itself, and what it actually does to the space-time fabric is a theory.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Quoting pottery:

The force of Gravity is a theory as well.


True, but it can be seen through observation over and over. Increasing storms strength and frequency can not, as of yet.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Why are they still using 1971-2000 data for comparison?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You understand thats just a theory at this point and there is no evidence to support that?

The force of Gravity is a theory as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something
It may be boring to some people, for sure. But many knowledgeable earth scientists are convinced it's one of the most important issues of our time, one that threatens to cause societal upheaval on a global scale unlike anything ever seen, and that makes it more than interesting to me. I mean, it may not be as exciting as talking about Justin Lin or Whitney Houston or whomever/whatever, but still... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13529
Quoting BobWallace:


Can you understand how a changing climate changes storm frequency and intensity?



You understand thats just a theory at this point and there is no evidence to support that?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Quoting Skyepony:
The odd thing about part of the climate leak..about Heartland having to do with passing laws to have public schools teach antiscience that are pro oil..I posted about this a few weeks ago. The laws have already passed in TX & LA. Other states they are on the table. Currently the FL book curriculum for 2nd graders is very pro-feel good about oil/rigs & such with little else for energy sources mentioned. This really isn't new, maybe just generally unnoticed.


This info that someone inside the Institute apparently leaked names names and puts monthly payments to those names. It moves the discussion beyond speculation that the Institute and its players are funded by fossil fuel interests.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something


Can you understand how a changing climate changes storm frequency and intensity?

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
41. Skyepony (Mod)
The odd thing about part of the climate leak..about Heartland having to do with passing laws to have public schools teach antiscience that are pro oil & such..I posted about this a few weeks ago. The laws have already passed in TX & LA. Other states they are on the table. Currently the FL book curriculum for 2nd graders is very pro-feel good about oil/rigs & such with little else for energy sources mentioned. This really isn't new, maybe just generally unnoticed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think its funny cuz i aint seen nothin changing


I bet in the comments on this blog and on the one his is going to post on climate change, several things will be restated several, or more, times.



A good amount of rain in the Mid-Atlantic Region
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something


i think its funny cuz i aint seen nothin changing
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485


Snow line keeps shifting southeastward, cmon keep it comin!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Climate change talk is boring, you guys have already made your points hundreds of times, we should talk about storms or something
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Can't wait for Dr. M's blog on anti climate change. Aka global warming.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if nobody was issuing advisories on 13S, i could glance at the satellite of S Indian and not even recognize it.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
6 sunlinepr [quoting ENENews] "Areas with 10,000[becquerels per square metre] of radioactivity considered "highly[*]contaminated" by study -- Over 30,000 square kilometers in Japan exceed level"

Which is equivalent to a square with sides of 172kilometers(~107miles). The number that keeps popping up to provide electrical power to the US with solar energy is a 100miles squared (10,000square-miles) of desert.
Since Japan has created a desert as far as farming or human habitation is concerned, they might as well go "all solar" electricity production on their new (and involuntary) wildlife preserve.

* Though it appears that ENENews is being hyperbolic in its usage when up to 4,700 becquerels appeared in surveys done before the Fukushima meltdowns -- apparently carried in by the weather from nuclear bomb testing worldwide -- and up to 8,000 becquerels per kilogram of material can be disposed of as normal trash.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
wow, 19th warmest.....that is not significant at all, next thing you know people will start shouting gw because the month ranked 200th warmest....good greif.
Would 115th coolest sound better to you? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13529
Quoting Ameister12:

The SPC is calling for supercells, and organized clusters of severe storms that will produce very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, maybe strong ones. Cites like New Orleans, Mobile, Columbus, and Tallahassee will be some of the hardest hit cities.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
a few more months from now and this would have been at the very least a strong tropical storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
13S really dont look good
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....
gee weather channel is all over this storm,if the storm tracks over the water near D.C you could see a nice snowfall, if the storm tracks on land it might be a rain and wind event, still too early to predict they say, days away, i do notice here around tampa bay, they have upped our rain chances to 30% which for us is good news
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....


GFS gives the heaviest areas of snow 4-6 inches i believe. western VA
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting SPLbeater:
it appears the GFS has possible snow storm dropping most of it over virginia, and western NC.


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't drink and dive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to Giovanna's track? O_o It went from hitting Mozambique, to going out to sea and now turning around back into Madagascar all within 24 hours!

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
it appears the GFS has possible snow storm dropping most of it over virginia, and western NC.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
wow, 19th warmest.....that is not significant at all, next thing you know people will start shouting gw because the month ranked 200th warmest....good greif.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting Xeloi:


The guy from UVA is well-known to be in the pockets of the oil industry -- the other members of the department there are just stunned that no one appears to care about this fact besides them.
Once the oil industry figures out how to market itself along the lines of "Clean Coal" they will calm down.. Don't forget that its not only the oil companies, but also a few countries whose economies are tied to the globes continued oil consumption. There is a whole lotta money available to all these folks to use as they wish.. imho
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Neapolitan:
I very much look forward to hearing your take on this matter, Dr. Masters. Not much new info, though, if you ask me; anyone who cares to have looked can see that there's some big $$$ riding on keeping climate science quashed--and those pulling the strings will stop at almost nothing to make sure their mission is accomplished.

A any rate, thanks for the update...


The guy from UVA is well-known to be in the pockets of the oil industry -- the other members of the department there are just stunned that no one appears to care about this fact besides them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Offshore Rains





Super Cells east of Brownsville

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORN-
ING...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING DENSE FOG OVER MOST OF
SE TX THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES TO ACCOMMODATE THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL GOING WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH ALL THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH JUST GLANCING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE EDGING EAST BY TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR SE TX FRI THROUGH SAT. THE COMBI-
NATION OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC COASTAL LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT
FOR THESE STORMS IN THE ALREADY MOIST VERY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IF THE PROGGED JET DYNAMIC
(LFQ) DOES VERIFY. THE QUESTIONS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERLOOKED GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THESE OTHER WX FEATURES.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HVY RA
IN THE WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT CHANCES DO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR
THESE POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST AREA-
WIDE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) SINCE SEPT 2010 (!) FOR THIS FRI-SAT

TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

AND AS THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OF LATE HAS BEEN WONT TO DO...A BIT
OF A BREAK ON SUN/EARLY PART OF MON APPEARS TO END LATE MON NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUES (GOING WITH
THE ECMWF). GFS NOT AS FAST WITH THIS NEXT BOUNDARY (NOR AS WET).
BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE HAVE OPTED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL AT THIS TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE ECMWF ALSO HINTING A SLIGHT-
LY MORE PROLONGED DRYING PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
41


Not enough or TOO MUCH.....Dam
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORN-
ING...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING DENSE FOG OVER MOST OF
SE TX THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES TO ACCOMMODATE THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL GOING WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH ALL THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH JUST GLANCING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE EDGING EAST BY TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR SE TX FRI THROUGH SAT. THE COMBI-
NATION OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC COASTAL LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT
FOR THESE STORMS IN THE ALREADY MOIST VERY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IF THE PROGGED JET DYNAMIC
(LFQ) DOES VERIFY. THE QUESTIONS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERLOOKED GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THESE OTHER WX FEATURES.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HVY RA
IN THE WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT CHANCES DO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR
THESE POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST AREA-
WIDE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) SINCE SEPT 2010 (!) FOR THIS FRI-SAT

TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

AND AS THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OF LATE HAS BEEN WONT TO DO...A BIT
OF A BREAK ON SUN/EARLY PART OF MON APPEARS TO END LATE MON NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUES (GOING WITH
THE ECMWF). GFS NOT AS FAST WITH THIS NEXT BOUNDARY (NOR AS WET).
BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE HAVE OPTED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL AT THIS TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE ECMWF ALSO HINTING A SLIGHT-
LY MORE PROLONGED DRYING PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
41


That's pretty sad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER AIR IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORN-
ING...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING DENSE FOG OVER MOST OF
SE TX THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES TO ACCOMMODATE THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL GOING WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH ALL THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH JUST GLANCING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE EDGING EAST BY TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR SE TX FRI THROUGH SAT. THE COMBI-
NATION OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC COASTAL LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT
FOR THESE STORMS IN THE ALREADY MOIST VERY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IF THE PROGGED JET DYNAMIC
(LFQ) DOES VERIFY. THE QUESTIONS ABOUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERLOOKED GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THESE OTHER WX FEATURES.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HVY RA
IN THE WX GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT CHANCES DO LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR
THESE POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST AREA-
WIDE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) SINCE SEPT 2010 (!) FOR THIS FRI-SAT

TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED.

AND AS THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OF LATE HAS BEEN WONT TO DO...A BIT
OF A BREAK ON SUN/EARLY PART OF MON APPEARS TO END LATE MON NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUES (GOING WITH
THE ECMWF). GFS NOT AS FAST WITH THIS NEXT BOUNDARY (NOR AS WET).
BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE HAVE OPTED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL AT THIS TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE ECMWF ALSO HINTING A SLIGHT-
LY MORE PROLONGED DRYING PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
41
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
With grounds being saturated, run off will become heavy to excessive, this is exactly what is needed in TX


Yes it is. We will likely have some flooding problems but I wont complain because we need all the rain we can get before the summer gets here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With grounds being saturated, run off will become heavy to excessive, this is exactly what is needed in TX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wait a minute, I got six likes from the same user names i think Neapolitan mentioned yesterday. Even Giovanna Datoli.

Hmmmmmm....

This probably can be construed as a conspiracy and you could be the chosen leader!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Powerhouse low over northern Baja coming around, massive lift coming with this one as it nears the gulf. Southern track, Pacific flow feeding in, equals= large rain event
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters. Thanks for these revelations to the "blogoshpere."
It appears from the temperature anomalies chart at the top that about 80% of the upper Northern latitudes were a lot warmer than average during January.
This will probably not bode well as we return to sunshine hours from March onwards leading to a kick-start of ice melting.
Things are growing well in the UK now and we mowed the lawn today in mid February for the first time ever, about a month earlier than usual.
We must of course try and keep open minds so early in the year in order to give every theory an equal chance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Heavy rain event possible along the TX and LA coasts as some models pegging 4 inches somewhere. Pacific jet is in full throttle.




Bring it on!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wait a minute, I got six likes from the same user names i think Neapolitan mentioned yesterday. Even Giovanna Datoli.

Hmmmmmm....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting TampaSpin:



Looks like some VERY VERY SEVERE stuff coming. One rarely sees 3 days out like this!

The SPC is calling for supercells, and organized clusters of severe storms that will produce very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, maybe strong ones. Cites like New Orleans, Mobile, Columbus, and Tallahassee will be some of the hardest hit cities.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff Masters:
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.
I very much look forward to hearing your take on this matter, Dr. Masters. Not much new info, though, if you ask me; anyone who cares to have looked can see that there's some big $$$ riding on keeping climate science quashed--and those pulling the strings will stop at almost nothing to make sure their mission is accomplished.

A any rate, thanks for the update...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13529
Where can you find GFS and ECMWF maps that you can copy to this blog, the ones here on wunderground cannot be copied.

Thanks in advance.

Also the ECMWF is back to predicting a Tennessee to Mid-Atlantic Snow, but the GFS is more northerly, there is a good chance it will snow somewhere
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Areas with 10,000 Bq/m² of radioactivity considered "highly contaminated" by study — Over 30,000 square kilometers in Japan exceed level, 8% of nation

Published: February 16th, 2012 at 8:34 am ET By ENENews

Japan’s science ministry says 8 per cent of the country’s surface area has been contaminated by radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.
It says more than 30,000 square kilometres of the country has been blanketed by radioactive caesium.
The ministry says most of the contamination was caused by four large plumes of radiation spewed out by the Fukushima nuclear plant in the first two weeks after meltdowns.
The government says some of the radioactive material fell with rain and snow, leaving the affected areas with accumulations of more than 10,000 becquerels of caesium per square metre. [...]
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814

Viewing: 56 - 6

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.