January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

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January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D


Yeah I was completely serious, I'm sure you are much brighter than me though.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Nea, but like the Doc said there has been no trend or increase in tornado activity, scientists can't decide whether or not there will be more storms with less power, or fewer storms with more power. They always seem to gravitate, towards whats currently occurring, that's just natural. When there is a trend, I'll jump fully on board, but until then I'll be questioning it. I feel like you would be all for people questioning authority and not just following blindly.


There are several inaccuracies in your comment.

For starters, yes, there has been a trend in tornado activity observations. But based upon population changes, improved detection capabilities, and improved storm surveying, the accuracy of that trend in the observations is low. There is not yet enough data to indicate what the trend is, or if there is one. That is different than saying that there "is no trend."
Many tornadoes have been rated since the 1950s. Ratings became much more common from the 1970s onward. Doppler radar helped us detect weaker tornadoes - and thus survey them - in the 1990s. The 1990s would be the best starting point, but from there you would find no statistical significance of any trend, or a lack there of.

Although scientific work continues with regards to hurricanes and climate change, I'm not sure I've read much of anything suggesting "they always seem to gravitate... toward its natural." If they have not pinned down what hurricanes are doing (as you claim), how could they then gravitate toward "its natural?"
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Quoting Patrap:
With the lunar module and a mountain as a backdrop, David Scott recreates Galileo's famous gravity experiment in a low-gravity vacuum by letting a hammer and falcon's feather fall to the ground.


Nice, Pat.
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50th Anniversary of Orbital Flight: NASA

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes I agree as the spread is relativly big. But the most probable outcome is to be Neutral when things count,by the peak of the hurricane season,unless El Nino makes a big appearance. Here is the text update. By the way,I have a Caribbean blog where you can post weather related things that occur in Trinidad & Tobago.

Link

Thanks, I will post there when things start to happen...

Actually, we are still getting showers which is a big relief.
Cooler than 'normal' too.
68F the other morning.
Freezing, man!
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Good news on OSCAT

A Look at the New Oceansat-2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) over Tropical Cyclones


Excerpt:

At first glance, the OSCAT scatterometer appears to be on par with the QuikSCAT sensor in its ability to accurately depict tropical cyclone positions and outer wind structure, and to provide a minimum (at least) value of maximum intensity. As was the case with the old QuikSCAT data, applications of the OSCAT data requires a learning process for using not only the wind vectors, but also the ambiguities in order to make the most of the data. These early results, along with its 90% daily coverage over the tropical oceans, suggests a valuable tool will soon be available for aiding the world's tropical cyclone forecasting centers in maintaining improved forecasts and warnings.


There is a ton of papers to be presented at the upcoming AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Hopefully after the conference links to full papers will be provided.
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With the lunar module and a mountain as a backdrop, David Scott recreates Galileo's famous gravity experiment in a low-gravity vacuum by letting a hammer and falcon's feather fall to the ground.

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D
\
Thanks, but.....
That's a little harsh..
he was joking, surely.
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Quoting pottery:

Really hard to make a decent forecast from that.
That's a pretty wide spread...


Yes I agree as the spread is relativly big. But the most probable outcome is to be Neutral when things count,by the peak of the hurricane season,unless El Nino makes a big appearance. Here is the text update. By the way,I have a Caribbean blog where you can post weather related things that occur in Trinidad & Tobago.

Link
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What is up with Giovanna Datoli and Co.?

You mean Giovanni Datoli, don't you? Giovanna, as you doubtless recall, was banned some months ago. But I don't know what's going on. Why don't you tell us?
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Quoting pottery:

Brilliant!
Let us know if you find out the Truth.
Oh, and how you felt, after you landed.

heheheheh


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D
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Quoting Jax82:
I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/


Just go to Australia it will just fall right off the earth.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its real easy to turn things off


what the heck you mean by that? I NOTICE NO CHANGE IN MY AREA, so nothing is changing here.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?


While not impossible, it is unlikely. If a massive chunk of non-baryonic matter happened to somehow get stuck around Earth (or the moon) it would have an influence. Other more destructive methods would be the Earth losing more mass than it is gaining, or vice versa.

If the GUT is ever developed and gravity can be described as just another facet of, say, electro-magnetism, then a device could be constructed that could convert electricity into an inverse gravitational field (thus allowing you to float). Of course, if we make it to that point the world we be much different place.
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Quoting Jax82:
I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/

Sorry to say this, but we can't fix stupid.

(sorry, you left the door open there!)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What is up with Giovanna Datoli and Co.?


Maybe they dissipated?
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I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/
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What is up with Giovanna Datoli and Co.?

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Quoting PlazaRed:
Commenting on:-77. bappit
"For the result see Tampa Spin's video"
The interesting thing with the video is that what was expected to happen, didn't.
This is because nobody thought to check the state of the "medium" had changed, even though probably everybody knew the medium could change. The results were funny to us and to them as well in reality.
The problem that we are dealing with with climate change is in a way about the same as the video, the medium has changed, everybody's diving into the future and nobody is really prepared for what the consequences might be.
The question must probably be:- Who's going to make the global video after we've dived into the future?

Sobering thought, that.
Shouldn't be allowed, frankly.
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Quoting JupiterKen:
Here...hold my beer and watch this. Alcohol, altitude and gravity do not mix.

WAIT!
Don't forget to turn the camera on.
We want to watch this!

:):))
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Here...hold my beer and watch this. Alcohol, altitude and gravity do not mix.
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Commenting on:-77. bappit
"For the result see Tampa Spin's video"
The interesting thing with the video is that what was expected to happen, didn't.
This is because nobody thought to check the state of the "medium" had changed, even though probably everybody knew the medium could change. The results were funny to us and to them as well in reality.
The problem that we are dealing with with climate change is in a way about the same as the video, the medium has changed, everybody's diving into the future and nobody is really prepared for what the consequences might be.
The question must probably be:- Who's going to make the global video after we've dived into the future?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The ENSO models update of Mid-Febuary has the majority of them at Warm Neutral to Weak El Nino,but some of them fall back to dead center Neutral by August,September and October.


Really hard to make a decent forecast from that.
That's a pretty wide spread...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Nea, but like the Doc said there has been no trend or increase in tornado activity, scientists can't decide whether or not there will be more storms with less power, or fewer storms with more power. They always seem to gravitate, towards whats currently occurring, that's just natural. When there is a trend, I'll jump fully on board, but until then I'll be questioning it. I feel like you would be all for people questioning authority and not just following blindly.
There's a huge difference between "blindly following authority" and accepting what the overwhelming majority of scientists say. After all, I've never autopsied the lung of a cancer patient who died from a three pack-a-day habit--but I'm perfectly willing to listen to an oncologist who has, and who tells me that cigarettes did the killing.

It's true that tornado activity doesn't seem to have increased. Then again, tornado activity vis-a-vis climate change is an area in which there isn't much confidence yet, as there is for, say, precipitation and temperature increases, etc.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That would be Jeremy Lin.
Oops. My bad. I have a relative in the basketball Hall of Fame--a second cousin once removed--yet I'm just not all that interested in the sport. So far as spectator team sports, I'll take football and baseball any day... ;-)
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The ENSO models update of Mid-Febuary has the majority of them at Warm Neutral to Weak El Nino,but some of them fall back to dead center Neutral by August,September and October.

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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?

If I may...

Gravity, unlike Climate, currently shows no sign of 'changing' in any way.
But if you send a couple of million bucks to Branson at Virgin Airlines, he can give you an anti-gravity experience in a couple of years....
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Quoting TampaSpin:



For illustration purposes only. Do not attempt this at home.
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Quoting pottery:

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.


Acceleration due to gravity is approximately 9.8 m/s/s which is roughly equivalent to 32 feet/sec/sec . This varies a little bit depending on where you are and how far off the ground you are. :)
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Quoting pottery:

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.

Galileo was the first to formally investigate gravity experimentally. Before that there was the "you first" theory of gravity. People generally knew better than to jump off a cliff. As Pottery's comment suggests, The denialist position on climate is a lot like people who when told "You first." replied "Okay. Watch this!" For the result see Tampa Spin's video. :)
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Gravity is a law. Try jumping off a 1,000 foot cliff sometime and let me know what happpens. No, don't. Really. Don't do that.


Gravity isn't a law. It is a very well established theory. Just like the laws of thermodynamics. There is an enormous amount of evidence in support of these theories, making them practically inviolate, but they are still theories. For example, scientists still are doing quite a bit of research on gravity.

If you're just looking at the utmost trivial aspects of gravity (as in your example), then you can trivially call it a law. But in the scientific community that is not the case.
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Quoting:- 34 Aspectre:-
"Which is equivalent to a square with sides of 172kilometers(~107miles). The number that keeps popping up to provide electrical power to the US with solar energy is a 100miles squared (10,000square-miles) of desert.
Since Japan has created a desert as far as farming or human habitation is concerned, they might as well go "all solar" electricity production on their new (and involuntary) wildlife preserve"

Well its not a physical desert but certainly from a human point of view its going to be as inhospitable as one.
The wildlife will take over completely and due to the radiation presence which may increase dramatically with more problems, some new sub species could evolve.
The problems facing turning the area into a solar farm will be overcome by automation and robotics, so what better use for it other than as you say a "wildlife park and energy farm." It could be the first of many the way things are going!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I wonder how long it will be until the hype begins in DC with the tv weathermen....


It will be rain. We did not sacrifice enough squirrels in October.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Really? I always have a stopwatch in hand just in case, never know when you might disprove gravity and be famous forever.

Brilliant!
Let us know if you find out the Truth.
Oh, and how you felt, after you landed.

heheheheh
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Quoting pottery:

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.


Really? I always have a stopwatch in hand just in case, never know when you might disprove gravity and be famous forever.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think its funny cuz i aint seen nothin changing
its real easy to turn things off
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53787
Quoting Neapolitan:
ha's not true, of course; there's ample--and growing--evidence.

Speaking of Virginia, this came out today:

Uh-oh


Nea, but like the Doc said there has been no trend or increase in tornado activity, scientists can't decide whether or not there will be more storms with less power, or fewer storms with more power. They always seem to gravitate, towards whats currently occurring, that's just natural. When there is a trend, I'll jump fully on board, but until then I'll be questioning it. I feel like you would be all for people questioning authority and not just following blindly.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Pretty sure its 32 feet a second? 9.8 is used for the equations so it's easier to just use that :p

I learned it as "32 feet per second per second".
Come to think of it, I never queried the thing.
This was before we went metric here of course.
Although I HAVE fallen a couple of times, myself, I never thought to analyse my descent as it was happening.
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Quoting MTWX:

Must not follow professional basketball...


I only follow Atlanta teams and their competitors.
But now i remember, he is the guy whose been on the home page of CNN for 3 days now.

I've always wondered if a hook echo could do this:

Now i know.
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Quoting TampaSpin:

Translation: "Hey, watch this!"
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Actually, you are falling with style... please get it right ;)

True. Sorry! :):))
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

At least you have a sense of humor. :p
Quoting KeyWestSun:

At least you have a sense of humor. :p

Thanks!
I find it humorous, for true.
I could have chosen Angst, Horror, Disbelief, Consternation.
Humour is kinder on my Spirit :):))
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63. MTWX
-
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You understand thats just a theory at this point and there is no evidence to support that?
That's not true, of course; there's ample--and growing--evidence.

Speaking of Virginia, this came out today:
In the Path of the Storm: Global Warming, Extreme Weather, and the Impacts of Weather-Related Disasters in the United States

Weather disasters kill or injure hundreds of Americans each year and cause billions of dollars in economic damage. The risks posed by some types of weather-related disasters will likely increase in a warming world. Scientists have already detected increases in extreme precipitation events and heat waves in the United States, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently concluded that global warming will likely lead to further changes in weather extremes.

Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people %u2013 or roughly four out of five Americans. The breadth and severity of weather-related disasters in the United States %u2013 coupled with the emerging science on the links between global warming and extreme weather %u2013 suggest that the United States should take strong action to reduce emissions of global warming pollution and take steps to protect communities from global warming-fueled extreme weather events.

Weather-related disasters are common in the United States, affecting people in every part of the country. However, the number of people affected by weather-related disasters in 2011 was unusually high, and the number of extremely costly disasters was unprecedented.


Uh-oh
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Quoting MTWX:

Wow, never actually seen it shown as a Standard measurement.. Alway remembered 9.8 meters/second squared


Pretty sure its 32 feet a second? 9.8 is used for the equations so it's easier to just use that :p
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It may be boring to some people, for sure. But many knowledgeable earth scientists are convinced it's one of the most important issues of our time, one that threatens to cause societal upheaval on a global scale unlike anything ever seen, and that makes it more than interesting to me. I mean, it may not be as exciting as talking about Justin Lin or Whitney Houston or whomever/whatever, but still... ;-)


I understand how important it is, but that does not mean we need to spend hours saying the same things over and over again, especially when no one is changing their mind. Whether or not climate change is true, false, or somewhat true, it is not an effective use of time to discuss it excessively.

And we dont need to talk about Jeremy Lin or Whitney Houston either. Storms are much more exciting.
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59. MTWX
Quoting pottery:


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?

Wow, never actually seen it shown as a Standard measurement.. Alway remembered 9.8 meters/second squared
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Quoting pottery:


WHEEE LOOK AT MEEEEE I"M FLYING.....
Accelerating at 32'/sec/sec too, to certain destruction. But in the meantime I'm cool.
Any similarities noted?


Actually, you are falling with style... please get it right ;)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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