January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

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January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Comparison.

February 2, 2012:



February 16, 2012:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


it doesnt bother me anymore.


I dont watch it :)

lol... I used to love twc... they really ruined it though
For those it may interest: I wrote a blog on our friend Jasmine who sadly dissipated yesterday, as well as a couple other odds and ends.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bye bye, La Nina, hello El Nino?



See post #144 about the ENSO models forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


Those dates and number coinside with multiple massive volcanic erruptions which cause much lower sunlight throughout earth and much more reflection of its rays when entering the atmosphere, the problem this go round is CLREAR AIR!!! no ash to stop the sun...OH LAWD

Well those are very some consistent volcanic eruptions, we must be on a volcanic cycle too, or did CO2 stop that as well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


it doesnt bother me anymore.


I dont watch it :)
Yea, I don't either, but I still hate seeing bad weather info given. I guess they did not get a look at the newest model runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bye bye, La Nina, hello El Nino?


For a brief period of time, then we're back to Neutral.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



Those dates and number coinside with multiple massive volcanic erruptions which cause much lower sunlight throughout earth and much more reflection of its rays when entering the atmosphere, the problem this go round is CLREAR AIR!!! no ash to stop the sun...OH LAWD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bye bye, La Nina, hello El Nino?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
i really wish the weather channels nick walker would stop saying "eeehh yeah nothing to worry about mainly an appalacian wet snow event this weekend, mostly rain with a few wet snow flakes mixed in along the I-95 corridor from washington to Philly" that fool doesnt know!!!! that s*it changes like female broadcast meteorologist!!!


it doesnt bother me anymore.


I dont watch it :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat for a significant Severe Weather outbreak continues this afternoon as models continue to predict a strengthening area of low pressure to cross southern Texas into the Gulf of Mexico and then potentially up the East Coast as we head throughout the weekend. This low will ultimately decide whether or not the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic receives a snowstorm or not.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Slight risk of Severe Weather on Saturday stretching from west of New Orleans east to Jacksonville, FL, and then up to just south of Virginia Beach, VA. Within this slight risk, the SPC has issued a 30% probabilistic area stretching from just west of New Orleans to Jacksonville, FL. In this area, many tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon, along with large hail and damaging winds. The threat will switch northward as we head into the evening and overnight areas.

It isn't everyday that the SPC issues a 30% area on a Day 3 outlook, and we may be looking at a Moderate risk before this event is over with.


Definitely agree that there is potential for a major outbreak Saturday... As you said, you don't see 30% 3 days out often
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i really wish the weather channels nick walker would stop saying "eeehh yeah nothing to worry about mainly an appalacian wet snow event this weekend, mostly rain with a few wet snow flakes mixed in along the I-95 corridor from washington to Philly" that fool doesnt know!!!! that s*it changes like female broadcast meteorologist!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The ENSO models update of Mid-Febuary has the majority of them at Warm Neutral to Weak El Nino,but some of them fall back to dead center Neutral by August,September and October.



According to the consensus of the ENSO models,Neutral conditions will be the probable outcome by the Summer.

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Quoting wxmod:


'Invisible' is a problem for some people, isn't it. Another problem that's hard to communicate is that the atmosphere is only a few miles top to bottom and there's not much of it. The satellite photos of the visible smog are the tip of the iceberg. The people in those countries under the thick smog seem to be helpless to do anything about it. As the worlds biggest consumers, we have to quit buying junk and quit throwing it away. Their smog and ours comes from US.


Here is a very good visual to represent that thought:

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Quoting BobWallace:
Do we get to dodge a "billion dollar" disaster this year from Missouri/Mississippi flooding? Not much snow on the ground in the upper Midwest.



http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full /National/nsm_depth/201202/nsm_depth_2012021605_Na tional.jpg


the deepest snow in this area is only 3-5 inches and over a very small area...id say thats the last thing that will happen this year...more likely a new madrid earth quake (not really) considering how this winter has gone.
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Do we get to dodge a "billion dollar" disaster this year from Missouri/Mississippi flooding? Not much snow on the ground in the upper Midwest.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
NOAA

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The Survey will take about 3 minutes to complete. Your response is needed by Wednesday, February 15, 2012.

Please contact: Thomas E. Kerr, Project Manager, 216-525-0600 with questions or to schedule a personal interview.


CLICK HERE to be directed to the survey for your sector

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
The threat for a significant Severe Weather outbreak continues this afternoon as models continue to predict a strengthening area of low pressure to cross southern Texas into the Gulf of Mexico and then potentially up the East Coast as we head throughout the weekend. This low will ultimately decide whether or not the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic receives a snowstorm or not.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Slight risk of Severe Weather on Saturday stretching from west of New Orleans east to Jacksonville, FL, and then up to just south of Virginia Beach, VA. Within this slight risk, the SPC has issued a 30% probabilistic area stretching from just west of New Orleans to Jacksonville, FL. In this area, many tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon, along with large hail and damaging winds. The threat will switch northward as we head into the evening and overnight areas.

It isn't everyday that the SPC issues a 30% area on a Day 3 outlook, and we may be looking at a Moderate risk before this event is over with.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31893
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Thanks. Do you think gravity will change like the climate and I'll get the chance someday if my lifetime to float around like they do on the Apollos like Tom Hanks?


It is expected that gravity (Earth's gravity) will change over time, just very, very, very slowly. The amount of mass of the Earth changes very slightly as we get stuck from 'incoming' stuff from space.

We also anticipated a changing climate, one that changes over tens and hundreds of thousands of years.

The alarming thing we're observing is that the climate is now changing very, very rapidly. If gravity were to change as rapidly then your floating around (or getting squished into a puddle) would likely happen in your lifetime.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
ok well eeybody talkin about the non changing climate again, so im out of here before i turn into one of em lol

Be back when the weathers back.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Cold air goes south, warm air goes north.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6006
135. wxmod
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Imagine, if you will, that CO2 was so visible to the unaided eye. I would imagine there would less time spent debating and more efforts spent towards mitigation.


'Invisible' is a problem for some people, isn't it. Another problem that's hard to communicate is that the atmosphere is only a few miles top to bottom and there's not much of it. The satellite photos of the visible smog are the tip of the iceberg. The people in those countries under the thick smog seem to be helpless to do anything about it. As the worlds biggest consumers, we have to quit buying junk and quit throwing it away. Their smog and ours comes from US.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


this blog/noaa/nws and news media has been talking about frozen rivers in venice, eastern europe, snow in italy and spain like its going out of style since after christmas, id say that all of europe needs to have shmedium blue dots. It was made by a human so im sure they had to throw their two cents in on top of the computer data!


Ditto....
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Quoting FFtrombi:


Most of january was well above average temps, the end of january - beginning of february has been cold.


this blog/noaa/nws and news media has been talking about frozen rivers in venice, eastern europe, snow in italy and spain like its going out of style since after christmas, id say that all of europe needs to have shmedium blue dots. It was made by a human so im sure they had to throw their two cents in on top of the computer data!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:
Ganges delta to Himalaya, 400 miles north to south. Today. The human volcano.



Imagine, if you will, that CO2 was so visible to the unaided eye. I would imagine there would less time spent debating and more efforts spent towards mitigation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes i know, then why are they freaking out about snowstorms in Italy and records breaking temperatures FOR JANUARY if its above normal?


Most of january was well above average temps, the end of january - beginning of february has been cold.
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130. wxmod
Ganges delta to Himalaya, 400 miles north to south. Today. The human volcano.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Million dollars good to start off? ;)


1/10 of that will start me off. I have to buy a suitcase and few clothing items first, but I do work cheap. ;-) I am just going to gather the data. Someone else can crunch the numbers. My Intel 8088 would take too long.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That anomaly map is for January.


yes i know, then why are they freaking out about snowstorms in Italy and records breaking temperatures FOR JANUARY if its above normal?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
If Europe is so cold this month and its the coldest in over 50 years, why does that map of
temp anomolies say its over average. Did anyone else notice this?


Totally agree with you. I guess it is our GW scientists manipulating the data.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree. You make very good points. We do have starting points here that are probably stronger than the starting points elsewhere around the globe.
All I need is the funding: PayPal --------->


Million dollars good to start off? ;)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6309
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
If Europe is so cold this month and its the coldest in over 50 years, why does that map of temp anomolies say its over average. Did anyone else notice this?
That anomaly map is for January.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It would be a wonderful study to do, it would have to be a very long one, there would be no way to tell if data from other areas is accurate, and no way to tell if what occurs in the short term is a trend or natural cycles of tornadic storms in any particular area. The more data the better, means less and less guess work.


I agree. You make very good points. We do have starting points here that are probably stronger than the starting points elsewhere around the globe.
All I need is the funding: PayPal --------->
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If Europe is so cold this month and its the coldest in over 50 years, why does that map of temp anomolies say its over average. Did anyone else notice this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting biff4ugo:
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g


2 words - Global Warming-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ah, yes, but you also are only looking at tornadoes in the contiguous 48 U.S. states. Think globally. What does this tell us? Are we seeing more frequent tornadoes in areas where they have previously been rare or non existent? Fewer tornadoes in previously otherwise active regions? Have they become stronger in some areas and weaker in others? This would be an indication that something is changing, concerning tornadoes... I do not know the answer to these questions. Perhaps worthy of a study?


It would be a wonderful study to do, it would have to be a very long one, there would be no way to tell if data from other areas is accurate, and no way to tell if what occurs in the short term is a trend or natural cycles of tornadic storms in any particular area. The more data the better, means less and less guess work.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6309
Quoting biff4ugo:
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g


Warmer waters? Stronger winds? Changing currents? I do not know.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


what the heck you mean by that? I NOTICE NO CHANGE IN MY AREA, so nothing is changing here.


the land mourns, and all who live in it waste away; the beasts of the field and the birds of the air and the fish of the sea.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well like you said, tornado detection ability has gone up enormously, however while you may need a doppler on wheels to see a F-0 or 1 in the middle of a field, you don't need one for F-3's through 5. If the number of tornadoes has increased and the same percentage of those tornadoes were extreme wouldn't the number of extreme go up? It is logical that it would, and in no way am I saying that there are not more droughts, or long term climate effects. I was just commenting on the frequency and strength of individual storms.


Ah, yes, but you also are only looking at tornadoes in the contiguous 48 U.S. states. Think globally. What does this tell us? Are we seeing more frequent tornadoes in areas where they have previously been rare or non existent? Fewer tornadoes in previously otherwise active regions? Have they become stronger in some areas and weaker in others? This would be an indication that something is changing, concerning tornadoes... I do not know the answer to these questions. Perhaps worthy of a study?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
117. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (993 hPa) located at 25.1S 41.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
Eastern semi-circle and up to 50 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 41.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.3S 41.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 42.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.8S 43.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, SSMIS date of 1458 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambique coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ALADIN) or a southeastwards very slowly and then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS)

However, the ECMWF ensemble still gives a strong weight to the southeastwards and eastwards scenario...and the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond 72 hours. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Maputo should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
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If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That is a plot of only a subset of tornadoes. You original claim was about tornadoes in general.

The surveying methods for tornadoes in the 1950s are different from survey methods of today. Building codes and housing quality have also changed. Even as your graph of EF3-EF5 tornadoes indicates, data does show a trend, but due to the issues noted already, there would not be a way to show a statistically significant trend in either direction, let alone indicate no trend. On a side note, some preliminary studies have indicated a decrease in tornado activity due to climate change. But due to survey issues, it is not something we can accurately detect yet.

Also of note... hurricanes and tornadoes are not the only types of extreme weather. There have been noted increases in extreme weather using the climate extremes index, and there have been meteorological/climate mechanisms proposed by which extreme weather (including cold spells) increase in duration under climate change.


Well like you said, tornado detection ability has gone up enormously, however while you may need a doppler on wheels to see a F-0 or 1 in the middle of a field, you don't need one for F-3's through 5. If the number of tornadoes has increased and the same percentage of those tornadoes were extreme wouldn't the number of extreme go up? It is logical that it would, and in no way am I saying that there are not more droughts, or long term climate effects. I was just commenting on the frequency and strength of individual storms.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6309
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


First off, there has been no trend in tornado increase, as you will see here:



That is a plot of only a subset of tornadoes. You original claim was about tornadoes in general.

The surveying methods for tornadoes in the 1950s are different from survey methods of today. Building codes and housing quality have also changed. Even as your graph of EF3-EF5 tornadoes indicates, data does show a trend, but due to the issues noted already, there would not be a way to show a statistically significant trend in either direction, let alone indicate no trend. On a side note, some preliminary studies have indicated a decrease in tornado activity due to climate change. But due to survey issues, it is not something we can accurately detect yet.

Also of note... hurricanes and tornadoes are not the only types of extreme weather. There have been noted increases in extreme weather using the climate extremes index, and there have been meteorological/climate mechanisms proposed by which extreme weather (including cold spells) increase in duration under climate change.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
I was just out checking the world of E-cat, and discovered a new word being added to the English language. Kirvit

The verbiage is from a comment after this article.
http://www.e-catworld.com/2012/02/rossi-on-dick-s miths-offer-i-do-not-need-his-money/
Link

Link link for the Official E-cat sight for the curious.

The D on February 15, 2012 at 2:47 am

Ignore him, he’s just a kirvit.

REF:

“Steve Robb
I hereby declare the coining of two new words:
krivit, verb,
to attack the idea or character of a person by many specious arguments while lying hidden behind a blog. Frequently the behavior has a puppet like character and the invective snake-like.

Krivit, noun,
person who does the above.

Example: Ignore him, he’s just another Krivit.
Example: His hissing, kriviting sound grates on my ears.”

Kudos to Steve… for enriching the English language. These words are very useful.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I forgot to mention that there are a few web cams in the blog from different islands of the Caribbean that you will like to see and follow how is the weather around this Carib basin. I will try to post a few more soon.

Thanks.
Will be there>>>>>>


Out for now.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


OK, you only tested gravity's effect on water. Now, try a milkshake and see if you get the same results. ;-) Suggestion: start with a very small milkshake.

It gets really interesting when you try that with a balloon filled with crankcase oil. In your living room.
The results vary, of course.
Depends on whether you have tile, carpet, a spouse, etc.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


There are several inaccuracies in your comment.

For starters, yes, there has been a trend in tornado activity observations. But based upon population changes, improved detection capabilities, and improved storm surveying, the accuracy of that trend in the observations is low. There is not yet enough data to indicate what the trend is, or if there is one. That is different than saying that there "is no trend."

Although scientific work continues with regards to hurricanes and climate change, I'm not sure I've read much of anything suggesting "they always seem to gravitate... toward its natural." If they have not pinned down what hurricanes are doing (as you claim), how could they then gravitate toward "its natural?"


First off, there has been no trend in tornado increase, as you will see here:



And second I meant it is natural for scientist's to see what is going on currently and change their mind on what might occur in the future.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6309
OUCH! Sometimes the hurt comes later and sometimes right away.

Just like Dr. Masters’s post. The statement that there are no billion dollar weather disasters in January is likely to be false.
The LACK of Snow no only affects snow and ski industries now, but in the spring, when that missing snow does not melt,is when the price tag shows up. This big spring time drought may be very expensive for water supply later in the year. Would you count the drought as a disaster in a different month, when causal the weather event or lack there of,happened in January?
I hope I'm wrong and we get a wet spell for the rest of the winter.
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Quoting Jax82:
I just thew water up in the air to test the theory of Gravity. Now i'm wet :-/


OK, you only tested gravity's effect on water. Now, try a milkshake and see if you get the same results. ;-) Suggestion: start with a very small milkshake.
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Quoting pottery:

Thanks, I will post there when things start to happen...

Actually, we are still getting showers which is a big relief.
Cooler than 'normal' too.
68F the other morning.
Freezing, man!


I forgot to mention that there are a few web cams in the blog from different islands of the Caribbean that you will like to see and follow how is the weather around this Carib basin. I will try to post a few more soon.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Hate to tell you this but I think you're bringing a brain to an idiot fight. :D


Yeah I was completely serious, I'm sure you are much brighter than me though.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6309

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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