January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

Share this Blog
29
+

January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 206 - 156

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



It took less of an energy imbalance to cause those interglacials and glacials than we were causing with greenhouse gases. Within a decade, any impact from another solar minimum would be virtually erased. Over several decades, we would mitigate incoming energy changes due to orbital changes (although the orbital changes occur on much longer timescales than decadal).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 18Z GFS shows a brief period of rain/snow or snow for my area. :O
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
SE Texas under a Flood Watch. This system will be interesting to watch as the night goes on through Saturday. SE Texas needs the rain even though we have received above avg so far this year. May have a significant flooding situation on our hands in Houston and places south as all of the run off from the 4-5 inches of rain that occurred yesterday and the day before North of Houston. Something to definitely keep an eye on if you are in SE Texas. We haven't had a significant flood here since 2000 so we are due for one. People need to pay attention and DO NOT DRIVE IN WATER.

DISCUSSION...
AT 20Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SE TX FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.4 INCHES...FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD HIGH RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE GROUND
IS SATURATED AND THE AREA HAD SOME FLOODING TROUBLE YESTERDAY.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD ISSUES
SO FEEL IT IS BEST TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. REMEMBER...A WATCH
MEANS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ON THESE SATURATED SOILS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. NOT EXACTLY
SURE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ANCHORED AS THE NAM
FAVORS THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS FAVOR THE SOUTH. DECIDED
NOT TO PLAY FAVORITES AND JUST BLANKETED THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
LIKELY POPS. HPC HAS OUTLOOKED SE TX IN SEE TEXT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. SEA FOG IS STILL AN ISSUE AT GALVESTON BUT FEEL
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING
AND END THE FOG THREAT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT. THINK THE REGION WILL
GET A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV SO WILL
LOWER POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW BUT DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GETS DRY SLOTTED. THE NAM FOCUSES
THE HEAVY RAIN FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW
AND THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL...ONE ALONG
THE 850 TRACK AND THE OTHER ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVY RAIN AXIS AND AM LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN. THE JET
DYNAMICS FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS IMPRESSIVE SO FEEL HEAVY RAIN
IS AGAIN A THREAT. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OR RE-
ISSUED FOR LATE FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY FOR POTENTIALLY MORE HEAVY
RAIN.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS AND AGAIN THE EC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING. 43
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlas V T-0 is now 6:29 p.m. EST. Red for ULW *Upper Level winds*

Selfishly hoping for a scrub so I can head out Saturday, as Friday might be a no-go due to cold front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"No billion-dollar weather disasters in January" Dr. Masters


"In the year ahead, there will be more than a hundred sudden, natural and accidental disasters that will exceed a billion dollars each, and the captain and crew will be as unprepared as you saw on that ship." RW - Jan. 23, 2012

In the past this wording has meant the following year, which would be 2013. For example, the correct forecast, including maps that NASA would be hit in 2008, used the term "coming year," and that was initially made in 2007.

Indeed, NASA's bases were hit twice, directly, in 2008. For such a small agency of the U.S. military, in terms of the number of bases, this was an unprecedented forecast.

However, I believe the uptick in tempo of natural disasters will begin well before the U.S. elections, and will very likely influence their outcome, exactly how I'm unsure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. PlazaRed
11:05 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


"too warm", is a relative term. I would venture to say that the climate was always "just right", for the species alive at the time. There are not too many of those species hanging around these days. Should we persist with our self induced warming, we are likely to follow the ones that could not adapt to the same ends.

I cant help but take a dig with this one!
The climate might be just right for the species living on it at the time. (That's probably covered by the first law of universal obviousness,which states that which is obvious needs no further explanation.)
Enter the ingenuity of the humans and we find that probably 50+% of them would not be alive if it was not for their ability to warm themselves artificially, added to this is the temporary ability to travel at will around the planet and transport foods and other needs and we can probably add another few percent.
I would postulate that if humans had no fossil fuels then the true stable population of the planet would probably be self capping at about 1 billion, or about 15% of what it is today.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1940
200. wxmod
11:00 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Off Topic news to report as one of the great catchers ever to play in the big leagues has died,Gary Carter at 57. Rest in Peace his soul.

Link


>Carter told Sport magazine that a turning point in his life was the death of his mother when he was 12. Inge Carter suffered from leukemia and died when she was 37.

>"I took it very personally, very hard," Carter said. "One thing it did was turn me off God for a while and onto sports. I really feel everything good I did on a field was for my mother."

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1605
199. Grothar
10:59 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:


I'm older than you and you are wrong (this may be the only time evah).


:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
198. JupiterKen
10:56 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


As far as I can remember, about 5.


I'm older than you and you are wrong (this may be the only time evah). I played the age card.
Member Since: May 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
197. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:55 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Models are split...El Nino or La Nina?


I would love the GFDL to come true. Yeah, it would mean a very boring hurricane season, but the following winter would be amazing in terms of snowfall across the South. :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
196. Grothar
10:55 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Doesn't look like much/

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
195. GTcooliebai
10:54 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Are you asking a Siberian Indian on a 90F day or a native Equatorial Indian on a 90F day?
LOL
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
194. GTcooliebai
10:53 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Models are split...El Nino or La Nina?

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
193. Some1Has2BtheRookie
10:52 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:
So...it's never been too warm then?


Are you asking a Siberian Indian on a 90F day or a native Equatorial Indian on a 90F day?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
192. Grothar
10:52 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you doubt Grothar's note taking capabilities?


Twit!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
191. BobWallace
10:50 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


Too warm for what?

The Eocene occurred between 53 and 49 million years ago. During the warmest part of the Eocene little to no ice was present on Earth with a smaller difference in temperature from the equator to the poles.

Palm trees grew as far north as Alaska. That means that it was too hot close to the equator for agriculture as we know it.

Ocean temperature in the tropics reached 95 degrees F.

Melting all the Earth's ice would have raised sea levels 80 feet or so. Say goodbye to most of our coastal cities, river communities, all our beaches and major areas like Southern Florida, Bangladesh and the Netherlands. Even parts of the Central Valley of California would turn into an inland sea.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide values during the warmest parts of the Eocene were at 700 – 900 ppm. We're currently at ~390 and adding. We're starting to melt the permafrost which will release a lot of CO2 and methane (which converts into CO2). If we keep on keeping on we are likely to trigger another Eocene like period.



Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
190. Grothar
10:50 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


As far as I can remember, about 5.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23727
189. GTcooliebai
10:46 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
El niño forming????.Uh looks like another whack hurricane season is in store.First a snowless winter and now almost a certain boring season comming up.What has the world come to!!!!!!
Not so fast, remember what happened back in 2004? Floridians sure do, and it's a year they sure would like to forget I bet.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
188. JupiterKen
10:45 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
So...it's never been too warm then?
Member Since: May 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
187. SPLbeater
10:43 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
El niño forming????.Uh looks like another whack hurricane season is in store.First a snowless winter and now almost a certain boring season comming up.What has the world come to!!!!!!



uuuuh...where did that avatar come from?!?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
186. wxmod
10:43 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done


This expands your graph to include only the last few years.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1605
185. Some1Has2BtheRookie
10:41 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not sure what was "too warm" then, but that's not really relevant in the context of the current warming. What is relevant is that tha current warming is happening at a very rapid rate--and as the fossil record has shown to be true for hundreds of millions of years back in time, rapid temperature has always been very bad for life on earth.


Uh, Grothar has an excellent sense of humor, but I am not so certain he will find any humor in your referencing him as a "fossil record". ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
184. Neapolitan
10:35 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?
Not sure what was "too warm" then, but that's not really relevant in the context of the current warming. What is relevant is that tha current warming is happening at a very rapid rate--and as the fossil record has shown to be true for hundreds of millions of years back in time, rapid temperature has always been very bad for life on earth.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13284
183. washingtonian115
10:34 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
El niño forming????.Uh looks like another whack hurricane season is in store.First a snowless winter and now almost a certain boring season comming up.What has the world come to!!!!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15719
182. SPLbeater
10:33 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol... How come?


another tropical weather poster is always a positive on wunderground. and i like reading them. it gives me more inetiative to post
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
181. PensacolaDoug
10:32 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


You need to define "too" warm.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
180. Some1Has2BtheRookie
10:31 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting JupiterKen:
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?


"too warm", is a relative term. I would venture to say that the climate was always "just right", for the species alive at the time. There are not too many of those species hanging around these days. Should we persist with our self induced warming, we are likely to follow the ones that could not adapt to the same ends.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
179. Jedkins01
10:28 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
GUISE DON'T BELEVE THE SIENTISTS ITS ALL BECUZ OF HAARP IM TELLING YOU WAK UP PPLS!!!1111!!!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
178. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Off Topic news to report as one of the great catchers ever to play in the big leagues has died,Gary Carter at 57. Rest in Peace his soul.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13314
177. MAweatherboy1
10:23 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


you inspire me to post more often....

:D

Lol... How come?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7299
176. wxgeek723
10:19 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Lol El Nino!? 1982, 1994, 2006; this hurricane season's list has the worst luck with that.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3321
175. JupiterKen
10:19 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
How many times in the last 2,000,000,000 years has the climate been too warm?
Member Since: May 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
174. Some1Has2BtheRookie
10:04 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


This is getting boring, we've talked about this before, but if you think well get off easy on an 80,00 year ice age just because we cause way too much CO2 emmisions, that isn't very likely.


Also I wonder how reliable data from 300,000 years ago really is....



Do you doubt Grothar's note taking capabilities?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
173. wunderweatherman123
9:57 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
even if la nina dies sooner the probability of el nino wont increase take 2008 for example and look what happened after their la nina. it was neutral fro about 6 months. getting another la nina i think is impossible for now but neutral from june to september does make the most sense
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
172. SPLbeater
9:54 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Chapelhill:
As is the case with any coastal development, it's timing and location. NWS Raleigh sums it up well.

SEVERE/WINTER WEATHER:
WHETHER OR NOT A SEVERE OR WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE CAROLINAS IN ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH (DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC)...THEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ROTATING SFC-BASED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST (ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST)...THEN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF YOU WERE TO PERFECT PROG THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NC. EVEN IF THAT WERE THE CASE...IT WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION (ASSUMING NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH). AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION ONLY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. -VINCENT



are you a resident of Chapel Hill NC?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
170. PlazaRed
9:53 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
Comparison.

February 2, 2012:



February 16, 2012:



Interesting and for a sideline:-
There's an awful lot of extra heat in the North Atlantic and over the top of Russia.
Things change fast sometimes.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1940
169. BobWallace
9:53 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



Did you even look at the graph you posted? Did you notice how the green/CO2 line moves much higher than anywhere else on the graph?

Now, will CO2 keep us from suffering another ice age some tens of thousands of years from now? My guess would be no.

Here's how I see it playing out:

1) We get our act together and quit using fossil fuels soon. Then over the next few hundred years the CO2 we've put into the atmosphere drops out bringing our atmospheric blanket back to normal.

or

2) We keep being stupid and burn lots more fossil fuels which drives global temperatures so high that lots of us die. At that point there will be so few of us left that we will decrease our CO2 output and over the following hundred years the CO2 we've put into the atmosphere drops out bringing our atmospheric blanket back to normal.

Either way, I'd guess that 1,000 years or so we'll be back on track for 'normal' climate change and a very slow drift into another ice age.

It's the next few tens and hundreds of years that we need to worry about right now. Dealing with the next ice age is something that can be safely left to the year 3,000 or further.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
168. bappit
9:52 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Sock puppet on parade.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5561
167. uncwhurricane85
9:51 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I know that, but the other chemicals in volcanic emmisions lead to cooler temperatures. I just find it strange that your volcanoes erupt so regularly.


fair enough, im not saying im against what you are saying, i just think without volcanoes erupting we will not go back into another ice age, and that volcanoes produce the CO2 but this time the natural increase in multiplied higher than any past events due to human activity
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
166. Tropicsweatherpr
9:50 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I'm not convinced. I think the models have the right idea with showing El Nino, but I think we will stay in an El Nino period. I went back and looked at the El Nino/La Nina history and anytime we came off of a multi-year (3 years) La Nina, an El Nino period started right behind it. Of course, it seemed to gradually occur, instead of being a rapid change like we've seen in years that El Nino transitioned to La Nina.


I dont see a moderate to strong El Nino by the summer or fall,but Neutral to a Weak El Nino status. If that is the case,the Atlantic Hurricane season wont be average or below average.Only if El Nino is between Moderate to Strong,it would cut the numbers.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13314
165. GeorgiaStormz
9:50 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Back to school stuff....TTYL

Global warming might actually be good for you if you don't like the cold, if it really exists.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
164. SPLbeater
9:49 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

lol... I used to love twc... they really ruined it though
For those it may interest: I wrote a blog on our friend Jasmine who sadly dissipated yesterday, as well as a couple other odds and ends.


you inspire me to post more often....

:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
163. GeorgiaStormz
9:45 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Looking at your graphic, I would say it is unlikely that we would ever get back to the 0 baseline, anytime soon. This shows that the highest CO2 concentration has been around 320, for the past 450,000 years, and now it is over 380 in the graph's most current year! Currently the CO2 concentration is over 390! A better than 10 point rise in CO2 since the last year of that graph! .... What part of this is it that people just do not see????


This is getting boring, we've talked about this before, but if you think well get off easy on an 80,00 year ice age just because we cause way too much CO2 emmisions, that isn't very likely.


Also I wonder how reliable data from 300,000 years ago really is....

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
162. MississippiWx
9:42 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


See post #144 about the ENSO models forecast.


Yeah, I'm not convinced. I think the models have the right idea with showing El Nino, but I think we will stay in an El Nino period. I went back and looked at the El Nino/La Nina history and anytime we came off of a multi-year (3 years) La Nina, an El Nino period started right behind it. Of course, it seemed to gradually occur, instead of being a rapid change like we've seen in years that El Nino transitioned to La Nina.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
161. GeorgiaStormz
9:42 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


no errupting volcanoes cause higher CO2


I know that, but the other chemicals in volcanic emmisions lead to cooler temperatures. I just find it strange that your volcanoes erupt so regularly.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
160. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:39 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



Looking at your graphic, I would say it is unlikely that we would ever get back to the 0 baseline, anytime soon. This shows that the highest CO2 concentration has been around 320, for the past 450,000 years, and now it is over 380 in the graph's most current year! Currently the CO2 concentration is over 390! A better than 10 point rise in CO2 since the last year of that graph! .... What part of this is it that people just do not see????
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
159. Chapelhill
9:38 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
As is the case with any coastal development, it's timing and location. NWS Raleigh sums it up well.

SEVERE/WINTER WEATHER:
WHETHER OR NOT A SEVERE OR WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE CAROLINAS IN ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH (DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC)...THEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ROTATING SFC-BASED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST (ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST)...THEN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF YOU WERE TO PERFECT PROG THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NC. EVEN IF THAT WERE THE CASE...IT WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION (ASSUMING NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH). AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION ONLY RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. -VINCENT

Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
158. MississippiWx
9:36 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For a brief period of time, then we're back to Neutral.


You must remember that when we come out of a La Nina or El Nino, the models don't really want to transition to the other phase and stay there. If El Nino starts gaining momentum, the climate models will shift accordingly. Need to keep watching the Daily SOI...it has been negative a lot lately.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
157. uncwhurricane85
9:35 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Well those are very some consistent volcanic eruptions, we must be on a volcanic cycle too, or did CO2 stop that as well?


no errupting volcanoes cause higher CO2
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
156. MississippiWx
9:34 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
Comparison.

February 2, 2012:



February 16, 2012:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156

Viewing: 206 - 156

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.