January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

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January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link



Been so long since I watched a model took me a minute to get it goin'. Lol. The memory slips a bit after a certain age. :)
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18Z NAM hour 60


0Z NAM hour 54

North shift!!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link



you watching it too? almost to the last frames, lets see what happens!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is wonderful news, Texas really needed it.


Thank you. Yes we did really need it. I don't think we've been this wet since Ike. And the rain over the northern sections has fallen into our reservoirs so even better news. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Wet start to 2012

Posted: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST Updated: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Some interesting numbers...

2012 has certainly started out on a wet note. So far, we've seen officially 11.16" of rainfall since January 1st at the Brooks Regional Airport - even heavier amounts of over 15 inches has fallen in Northern Sections of Southeast Texas. This is more than 3.75" above normal.

Normally, Southeast Texas picks up 60.47 inches of rainfall on average per year.

With the historic drought last year, we only received 31.02" which is about 1/2 of normal.

During the 1st 48 day of 2012, 11.16" has fallen which is already 1/3 of what we saw last year and 1/6 of an average year.





That is wonderful news, Texas really needed it.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
Wet start to 2012

Posted: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST Updated: Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Some interesting numbers...

2012 has certainly started out on a wet note. So far, we've seen officially 11.16" of rainfall since January 1st at the Brooks Regional Airport - even heavier amounts of over 15 inches has fallen in Northern Sections of Southeast Texas. This is more than 3.75" above normal.

Normally, Southeast Texas picks up 60.47 inches of rainfall on average per year.

With the historic drought last year, we only received 31.02" which is about 1/2 of normal.

During the 1st 48 day of 2012, 11.16" has fallen which is already 1/3 of what we saw last year and 1/6 of an average year.



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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"


The amount of energy available on Earth through solar and other sources is orders of magnitude more than what we use now anyway.

The key is to first of all transfer to smarter and more flexible technologies.


There is no cause to mock God, since Solar power on Earth alone is over 10,000 times the energy we currently use, as any fan of meteorology should know.

Additionally, there may be other sources of hydrocarbons and other chemical energy on Earth besides just Coal, Oil, and Gas.

NASA has a patent on a LENR device for producing "heavy electrons", and claims it may be useful.

Rossi's E-cat still has not been disproven.

Plus, Michio Kaku seems to think that even hot Fusion will be mastered and economical in several decades.


Any one of these options, if successful, could power humanity for probably longer than the expected lifetime of the Sun, using only materials on Earth.
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TXPS26 KNES 170004
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/2315Z

C. 9.6S

D. 85.8W

E. THREE/GOES-12

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LT 0.2 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF LT 1. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN. THE DISTURBANCE MAINTAINS
A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Hmm.. SE Pacific low is too weak now according to SSD.
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Alright, well I have completed fridays schoolwork so i got all the time in the world to write a nice blog tomorrow! :D:D:D:D

let my 72 hour weekend, BEGIN!!!(actually 73 hours if you count tonight lol)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Lots going on in the Northern GoM.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Nice catch, that's pretty wild.

Latest ASCAT pass (2 from today missed)




Earlier ASCAT showing 15 knot winds

ASCAT confirms the closed low level circulation. Convection is weak and winds are no where near strong enough for this to be classified as a tropical storm, although SSTs are right around 26C, so not all hope is lost. Shear doesn't look too bad on model analysis, but convection is weak so even the lightest shear will be a problem. GFS and ECMWF both seem to let the storm just drift around over the next few days, not really strengthening it. So, unfortunately, I doubt this will become a tropical storm, but it will be a fun little tropical low/depression to watch over as it meanders around the SE Pacific.


I JUST CAN'T BELIEVE THIS.... AFTER ROLF IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THAT BRIAZIL LOW.... wth????
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well just rely on the coal fairy.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"

Ha.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Maybe GW is Earth's way of "taking care of" mankind. What I mean by that is this. Eventually we'll run out of fossil fuels but the planet will be warmer so we won't need them any longer to heat us. Hmmmm...

Tongue in cheek here....


Homeostasis by necessity and response, perhaps?

Quoting bappit:
Teleology has no purpose here.


The world's complexity sure can be unsettling - as as the complexity of the human mind, producing both half-invalid arguments and global insomnia.

Back on topic now, Cyclone Giovanna's aftermath is at least 18 killed, and significant storm surge along the eastern coast. The good news is that it avoided a direct strike on either Reunion or Mauritius.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"


Well just rely on the coal fairy.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course we will, things like coal will not last forever.


Of course it will. Didn't you know god is like the Doritos of natural resources? "Don't worry. I'll make more!"
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A tropical disturbance in the Humboldt Current, northwest hemi-quadrant!



The SSTs in that region are far warmer than average, even warmer than early months of 2010 when I went completely crazy over the pervasion of warm water followed by sudden rebounding of cold water - 10 days before the 8.8 quake. I think Dr. Masters has mentioned some correlation between SSTs, ENSO and earthquakes in the past, and wonder where the correlation is.

Meanwhile, there have been two more earthquakes near the Juan de Fuca region: a magnitude 5.6 in northern California February 13, followed by a magnitude 6.0 in the southern Juan de Fuca. Haven't seen these types of quakes in a while.

Perhaps one day tropical cyclones will hit Peru. Is there any geological evidence for such a phenomenon in recent history?
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Quoting SPLbeater:


I can assure you, we will not run out of resources...and I am sure that many dont want that debate....:D

Of course we will, things like coal will not last forever.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting 1911maker:
I was just out checking the world of E-cat, and discovered a new word being added to the English language. Kirvit

The verbiage is from a comment after this article.
http://www.e-catworld.com/2012/02/rossi-on-dick-s miths-offer-i-do-not-need-his-money/
Link

Link link for the Official E-cat sight for the curious.

The D on February 15, 2012 at 2:47 am

Ignore him, he%u2019s just a kirvit.

REF:

%u201CSteve Robb
I hereby declare the coining of two new words:
krivit, verb,
to attack the idea or character of a person by many specious arguments while lying hidden behind a blog. Frequently the behavior has a puppet like character and the invective snake-like.

Krivit, noun,
person who does the above.

Example: Ignore him, he%u2019s just another Krivit.
Example: His hissing, kriviting sound grates on my ears.%u201D

Kudos to Steve%u2026 for enriching the English language. These words are very useful.



Kermit the frog, meet Krivit the Troll.

Kermit: It's not easy being green.
Krivit: Are you some kind of racist?
Kermit: Erm...well I am green.
Krivit: Ah so that makes it okay Nazi Frog?
Kermit: But...
Krivit: Maybe someone can sew on a little mustache for you? Heil Tadpole! Heil Tadpole!
Kermit: That's not...
Krivit: What do you do for your froggy Nazi march? The Leap Frog?
Kermit: *sighs* *Adds Krivit the Troll to ignore list*
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Teleology has no purpose here.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5953
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Maybe GW is Earth's way of "taking care of" mankind. What I mean by that is this. Eventually we'll run out of fossil fuels but the planet will be warmer so we won't need them any longer to heat us. Hmmmm...

Tongue in cheek here....


I can assure you, we will not run out of resources...and I am sure that many dont want that debate....:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Maybe GW is Earth's way of "taking care of" mankind. What I mean by that is this. Eventually we'll run out of fossil fuels but the planet will be warmer so we won't need them any longer to heat us. Hmmmm...

Tongue in cheek here....
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Here is EX-Jasmine
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Storms always look more impressive on ascat than they really are... Giovannia just couldn't really pull herself together in the Mozambique Channel


nooope!

maybe we need to bring Funso back to give a tutorial on how to strengthen in the Mozambique Channel...LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting yqt1001:




TXPS26 KNES 161815
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/1745Z

C. 9.9S

D. 85.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Nice catch, that's pretty wild.

Latest ASCAT pass (2 from today missed)




Earlier ASCAT showing 15 knot winds

ASCAT confirms the closed low level circulation. Convection is weak and winds are no where near strong enough for this to be classified as a tropical storm, although SSTs are right around 26C, so not all hope is lost. Shear doesn't look too bad on model analysis, but convection is weak so even the lightest shear will be a problem. GFS and ECMWF both seem to let the storm just drift around over the next few days, not really strengthening it. So, unfortunately, I doubt this will become a tropical storm, but it will be a fun little tropical low/depression to watch over as it meanders around the SE Pacific.
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Quoting SPLbeater:

Giovanna

Storms always look more impressive on ascat than they really are... Giovannia just couldn't really pull herself together in the Mozambique Channel
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting RitaEvac:



I love it! This has increased as the day has gone on. More rain the better!
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Happy Birthday Jim Cantore!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462

Giovanna
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Snow on Sunday afternoon.. after rain in the am.. icy travel in Mid TN Sunday night.. glad kids are already scheduled off of School!
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


No one is arguing that CO2 is not produced by volcanoes. But the amount produced is much much smaller than what humans are producing. Also, the net impact of volcanic eruptions is to cool the planet by blocking incoming shortwave radiation. This is unambiguous and can be seen by looking at historical temperature data.


There's a new study which suggests that the "Little Ice Age" was caused by a series of about four volcanoes which cooled the planet enough to allow polar ice to expand sufficiently to lower the planet's temperature for a few hundred years.


1. A massive volcanic eruption rocks the tropics between 1275 and 1300 A.D.

2. The eruptions cloud the skies across the northern hemisphere with shiny particles, called aerosols, that block some of the sun’s incoming energy.

3. A cold snap ensues, killing off low-lying and higher elevation Arctic plants in one fell swoop.

4. The volcano-induced cooling generates extra sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

5. Some of that sea ice makes its way south along the eastern coast of Greenland, melts in the North Atlantic Ocean, and stalls the ocean circulation patterns that usually send warmer waters back north.

6. Water up north stays cold instead, sustaining the enlarged areas of sea ice.

7. Within a 50-year period, three more massive eruptions intensify the cooling trend.

8. The feedback cycle that sustains the sea ice perpetuates the colder regional climate for decades after the last of the volcanic aerosols rain out of the sky.

9. With a volcano-induced cold spell now persisting for centuries, mountain glaciers in Norway and the Alps advance into inhabited valleys, destroying towns.


http://news.discovery.com/earth/volcanoes-erupted -little-ice-age-120203.html

Now, a bit of warning. Any new study is best described as "interesting", but not "definitive". Best to wait for additional confirmation before treating this as gospel.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

no NYC snow now..... :(
I hate when they play like this


That makes me have snow though! ;)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068

no NYC snow now..... :(
I hate when they play like this
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this should make washingtonian115 happy lol:

Me: Will the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season be a bust?

Cleverbot: No.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS shows a brief period of rain/snow or snow for my area. :O


its giving me 0.58in of snow AFTER rain, then a breif period of freezing rain.


This might be fun...I remember the last time I got freezing rain over snow....me and the puppy were falling and sliding all over the back yard LOL!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL CONCERN SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIMEFRAME...WITH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM MON-THU GENLY QUIET. LATEST SUITE OF 12Z
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. BY
00Z/SUN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACRS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING INTO LA/MS. GFS IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC AND S CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SUN. HAVE
GENLY BLENDED THE TIMING...WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS OVERSPREADING THE
AKQ CWA FROM SW TO NE...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO AT LEAST LIKELY
ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z/SUN. WITH THIS STAGE OF THE SYSTEM...ONLY A
MODERATE STRENGTH ~1025 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO BE ALL RAIN AS P-TYPE EVEN IN NW ZONES. IF MODELS
WERE TO TREND COLDER COULD PERHAPS SEE -RA/SN MIX IN
LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BUT WILL NOT HAVE THIS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPR 30S IN MD AND VA ZONES NW OF
RIC...TO THE MID 40S IN SE VA/NE NC. QPF AMOUNTS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM 0.50" OR MORE SE ZONES TO .10-.25" FARTHER NORTH.

BY 12Z/SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT THE SFC LOW ACRS NORTHERN
GA OR SC...SLIDING ENE AND SLIDING OFF THE NC COAST BETWEEN
18Z/SUN-00Z/MON. THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NNW. DURING THIS
TRANSITION PERIOD...MODELS ALL SHOW SOME DRYING ALOFT...INCLUDING
PART OF THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C. DID NOT GET
THAT SPECIFIC IN THE GRIDS...CARRYING LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP RATES FOR PART OF
TH DAY. AS UPPER SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTN...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING LIFT WITH -10C TO -20C ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING SATURATED. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER TO BRING
COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THAN THE GFS...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FCST. PER HPC DISCUSSION ON THE INITIALIZATION OF
THE CURRENT TROUGHING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA BEING BEST HANDLED BY THE
12Z GFS AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF (00Z/16)...WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THE 12Z ECMWF. FCST WILL INDICATE ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FOR SE VA/NE NC...WITH SNOW REACHING NW
COUNTIES BETWEEN 18-21Z SUN...AND TO MUCH OF METRO RICHMOND
BETWEEN 21Z/SUN- 00Z/MON. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS
PTYPE AFTER 00Z...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FORCING AND MSTR WILL
BE LEFT AFTER THAT. FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...BEST CHC
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT FARMVILLE TO
ASHLAND TO SALISBURY MD...GIVE OR TAKE 20 MILES OR SO. THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S PRIOR TO THE
CHANGEOVER AND THEREFORE ACCUMULATION WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. FARTHER S/E MUCH OF THE INITIAL SNOW
MAY NOT ACCUMULATE...ALTHOUGH FCST DOES INDICATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
INTO SOUTHERN/SE VA PRIOR TO ENDING BETWEEN 03-06Z/MON. FOR HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS BY AT LEAST 5 F...GIVEN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...ALSO WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.

MON-THU...MID LEVELS RAPIDLY RETURN TO MORE OF A FAST MOVING ZONAL
FLOW...TEMPS STAY CHILLY ON MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT TURN
MUCH WARMER TUE-THU. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING
OF A WEAK SYSTEM ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS
WED...AND HAVE 20% POPS BROAD-BRUSHED IN ON THU. THIS WOULD BE ALL
RAIN...AS SW FLOW AND RIDGING OFF THE SE COAST BRINGS ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S WED/THU OVER SE 1/2 OF THE
CWA.
----

YESSS, and with the 18z NAM and GFS showing more snow than the 12z's im pumped!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
"No billion-dollar weather disasters in January" Dr. Masters


"In the year ahead, there will be more than a hundred sudden, natural and accidental disasters that will exceed a billion dollars each, and the captain and crew will be as unprepared as you saw on that ship." RW - Jan. 23, 2012

In the past this wording has meant the following year, which would be 2013. For example, the correct forecast, including maps that NASA would be hit in 2008, used the term "coming year," and that was initially made in 2007.

Indeed, NASA's bases were hit twice, directly, in 2008. For such a small agency of the U.S. military, in terms of the number of bases, this was an unprecedented forecast.

However, I believe the uptick in tempo of natural disasters will begin well before the U.S. elections, and will very likely influence their outcome, exactly how I'm unsure.


Pray to your weather god for the outcome that fits your agenda.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's pretty crazy... Do you have a map/satellite pic with the invest?




TXPS26 KNES 161815
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/1745Z

C. 9.9S

D. 85.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's pretty crazy... Do you have a map/satellite pic with the invest?

Forget that... lol... my computer didn't load the image before I posted
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No one is arguing that CO2 is not produced by volcanoes. But the amount produced is much much smaller than what humans are producing. Also, the net impact of volcanic eruptions is to cool the planet by blocking incoming shortwave radiation. This is unambiguous and can be seen by looking at historical temperature data.
True. It would take the equivalent of a Mt. Pinatubo-sized eruption every 13 hours--or a Mount St. Helens-sized eruption every 3 hours--day in and day out, 365 days a year, to produce as much CO2 as humans are currently producing annually. Or to look at it inversely, it takes about 65 hours for our burning of fossil fuels to produce as much CO2 as all the volcanoes in all the world in the course of an entire year.

Source...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting yqt1001:
Well, here isn't something you see everyday. In the last year we've had some rare storms, SAtl cyclones, Mediterranean cyclones and an unusually well developed invest in the Carb a week or 2 ago. But even those aren't close to what I am seeing right now.

SAB is showing an invest in the SOUTH EAST PACIFIC!

That's pretty crazy... Do you have a map/satellite pic with the invest?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Well, here isn't something you see everyday. In the last year we've had some rare storms, SAtl cyclones, Mediterranean cyclones and an unusually well developed invest in the Carb a week or 2 ago. But even those aren't close to what I am seeing right now.

SAB is showing an invest in the SOUTH EAST PACIFIC!

Off the Ecuadorian coast apparently.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
210. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting biff4ugo:
If the Arctic Oscillation is keeping the cold air up north, why is't the Arctic Ice cover rocketing back up toward average? I just see a little growth near Alaska.
NASA Science Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g


AO was Positive Nov thru beginning of January which is bad for making & keeping ice in the Arctic. It really only went negative for ~5 weeks & it showed a little recovery in that time but has turned positive in the last week or so...there goes the ice, blown out to the Atlantic again like it was in December..

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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


fair enough, im not saying im against what you are saying, i just think without volcanoes erupting we will not go back into another ice age, and that volcanoes produce the CO2 but this time the natural increase in multiplied higher than any past events due to human activity


No one is arguing that CO2 is not produced by volcanoes. But the amount produced is much much smaller than what humans are producing. Also, the net impact of volcanic eruptions is to cool the planet by blocking incoming shortwave radiation. This is unambiguous and can be seen by looking at historical temperature data.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
I hope the low moves a little more north than it shows of the GFS 18z. GIMME SOME SNOW!



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just to your east David we're not under a flood watch for the first system but maybe the second. We'll see how this turns out. Yesterday's rain never made it below I 10, or here. Guess we'll see.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO JUST BEYOND THE COASTAL WATERS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WITH ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM...LIFTING MOISTURE ABOVE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND UP TO I-10...AS DECENT 85H CONVERGENCE
AND ELEVATED CAPE IS PROGGED. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT 1/2
INCH AREA WIDE OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE COAST. DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SOME WET
GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR INTENSITY WILL
BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR THE RIVER SITES THAT
ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS ACADIANA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY POTENT PROVIDING
REALLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AREA WIDE AMOUNTS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AVERAGING AROUND
1.5 INCHES OVER UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTH...AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS PANS
OUT...TO GO ALONG WITH THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLOODING
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND FLOOD WATCH MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WHERE THE WARM
SECTOR COMES ON SHORE. RIGHT NOW THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO LAKE CHARLES LINE. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For those who believe in Climate change, all you CO2 will not be enough to keep you out of another 80,000 year ice age. Who knows what we would have to do to keep ourselves out of one, but it will take a lot more than what we have done



It took less of an energy imbalance to cause those interglacials and glacials than we were causing with greenhouse gases. Within a decade, any impact from another solar minimum would be virtually erased. Over several decades, we would mitigate incoming energy changes due to orbital changes (although the orbital changes occur on much longer timescales than decadal).
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.