January 2012 the globe's 19th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012

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January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.




Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions continue
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during January and the the first half of February. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict that La Niña will weaken this spring, and will likely be gone by summer.

Arctic sea ice extent fourth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fourth lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The growth rate for Arctic sea ice in January was the slowest in the satellite record. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.



No billion-dollar weather disasters in January
The globe had no billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2012, reported insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most expensive weather disaster of the month was winter storm Ulli in the UK and Scandanavia, which did $306 million in damage and killed three people. Severe winter weather in Japan killed at least 56 people in January, but damage estimates are not available yet. The most expensive U.S. disaster in January was the winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington January 17 - 22, causing major flooding on several Oregon rivers. The only month during the two-year period 2010 - 2011 without a billion-dollar weather disaster was March 2011, so last month's relatively quiet weather comes as a welcome relief.

Next post
The Tuesday release of leaked documents from a non-profit group active in attacking climate change science is creating a ruckus in the blogosphere, as reported by the New York Times. I'll have more to say on this Friday. Also, I'll have an update on a possible Saturday severe weather outbreak over the Southeast U.S.

Jeff Masters

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69hr:

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
60hr:

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting SPLbeater:
ok well it bedtime. be back tomorrow morning, gon write new blog on tropical systems if u wanna know now lol


night all!
good night to you in sanford north caroliner
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52164
GFS 54 hr:

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
ok well it bedtime. be back tomorrow morning, gon write new blog on tropical systems if u wanna know now lol


night all!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
I was looking for the periodic table in my science textbook to do my chem homework and I came across something that shocked me. Now, it wouldn't be shocking if I thought about it logically, but the blog has taken all logic away from the AGW debate that when I heard the benefits of AGW I nearly fainted.

Apparently:
-AGW is good for the growing seasons in the northern rural areas of Ontario, increasing the economy of the north and increasing crop output.
-AGW is good for tourism and the economy in Northern Canada. Once the Northwest passage becomes fully ice free in the summer (might have already? the textbook is rather old) the amount of cargo traffic will increase exponentially on route to China and Asia, and super huge cruise ships will start passing through there and the northern towns.

So maybe AGW isn't all that bad? Or are the benefits limited to northern regions (which would be here)?
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Quoting SPLbeater:


confident...well gee Geek i heard i was supposed to get about 36 feet this coming week. gon snow hard for 5 days.






LOL! Anyway I'm off for the night folks, hopefully I wake up to good news on the snow front!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I hope it does, but I wouldn't be too confident in it occurring.


confident...well gee Geek i heard i was supposed to get about 36 feet this coming week. gon snow hard for 5 days.


Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i already know where you are


No, you will never know......I am.........invisible!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:



come on, where is your winter spirit? its gonna snow in Panama!


I hope it does, but I wouldn't be too confident in it occurring.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


Piedmont
i already know where you are
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52164
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Snow for the Carolinas? It's possible, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on that.



come on, where is your winter spirit? its gonna snow in Panama!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


remember what happened with that snowstorm after Christmas 2010...?
everyone said the storm was going to head out from the central east coast and not affect the NE, it turned out that it did pounded NYC with 20"+....


Yes, I do. But they were only supposed to get 19". Boy were they surprised. I think that had thundersnow in it as well.
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Snow for the Carolinas? It's possible, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on that.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where abouts in north c are ya


Piedmont
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:
After observing the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs from today, i have a conclusion: The GFS is trending towards more snow for North Carolina!

This might just be somethin....for the first time this winter, I am hoping it will snow!
where abouts in north c are ya
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52164
Disaster simulation drills

February 17, 2012 – SAN DIEGO - Besides the New Madrid quake drill in the U.S, the latest exercise involves several nations and is hosted by San Diego State University. Exercise 24 (X24) Mexico is the third iteration of a primarily virtual, open-invitation, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) exercise with real-world functional components that is hosted by San Diego State University’s “Immersive Visualization Center” (VizCenter). Public Event kicks-off February 08-09, 2012 at 8:00am PST -Hosted by San Diego State University Immersive Visualization Center.
X 24 Excercise: Participants include: Department of Homeland Security, Office of Health Affairs, NORAD-NORTHCOM, US Customs and Border Protection, Global Borders College, Mexican Army and Navy, Mexico Federal Police, Vietnam Ministry of Defense, India National Disaster Management Agency, World Shipping Council, Red Cross, Pacific Disaster Center, NYK Logistics (yusen logistics), National defense University.
“The Viz Center is a physical space but one that largely represents relationships between people and organizations collectively attempting to positively impact the worlds of Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief, Community Resilience, Search and Rescue, and aid to operational Emergency Responders and Homeland Security.” -Viz Center

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After observing the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs from today, i have a conclusion: The GFS is trending towards more snow for North Carolina!

This might just be somethin....for the first time this winter, I am hoping it will snow!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
288. flsky
Cut Soot - Cut Warming
Link
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


remember what happened with that snowstorm after Christmas 2010...?
everyone said the storm was going to head out from the central east coast and not affect the NE, it turned out that it did pounded NYC with 20"+....


i remember that one...December 26th, i came downstairs after SLEEPING IN on sunday....wonderin why we werent goin to church, and there out the window lay about 8 inches of snow!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Grothar:


A picture paints a thousand words.



remember what happened with that snowstorm after Christmas 2010...?
everyone said the storm was going to head out from the central east coast and not affect the NE, it turned out that it did pounded NYC with 20"+....
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


damn it!


easy...there might be lurking children here as mentioned in Community Standards lol.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
The Day 4 outlook looks interesting for the SE...Link
Look at text
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:


in other words....NO lol


damn it!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


any NYC snow....?
please don't say no.


A picture paints a thousand words.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Negative.


in other words....NO lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I read the Storm Prediction Center discussion's every morning. However, I don't buy the threat will be AS HIGH as Kerr is predicting. He is kinda like Stewart (NHC forecaster)...tends to over-exaggerate things. He was predicting the possibility of strong tornadoes yesterday.



Far as I know, there's no tornado threat level/percentage assigned on the Day 3's. We'll see what happens in a couple days.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


any NYC snow....?
please don't say no.


Negative.
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Quoting Grothar:



Quoting SPLbeater:


North Carolina...below Virginia...lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some kind of wintry mix going on in my area here.


Quoting WxGeekVA:


Link

Try again, here's the loop.


any NYC snow....?
please don't say no.
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48 hours out


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Good night everybody, I'll be back in the morning with a new chart. (:
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Quoting Grothar:





bah.....it showin i dont git notin, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Grothar:


Where is that exactly?


North Carolina...below Virginia...lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:


can u post one that shows NC? :D



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Quoting SPLbeater:


can u post one that shows NC? :D


Where is that exactly?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Can't you people do anything right?




can u post one that shows NC? :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


That's very pretty and creative. Here's what SPC had to say today about the 850 and 500 mb jets...
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

I wouldn't poo-poo the tornado risk just yet.
:)

Yeah, I read the Storm Prediction Center discussion's every morning. However, I don't buy the threat will be AS HIGH as Kerr is predicting. He is kinda like Stewart (NHC forecaster)...tends to over-exaggerate things. He was predicting the possibility of strong tornadoes yesterday.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Can't you people do anything right?





And Gro saves the day!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Made a chart concerning the potential Severe Weather outbreak coming on Saturday. This looks like a high-shear, low-CAPE event, so the hail threat is going to be fairly minuscule. The tornado threat may also end up being a little low due to the lack of instability, but with high shear, isolated supercells are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary Severe Weather threat, as it appears that several organized storm clusters. Flooding will also be a high, non-severe concern with this event as many areas could see up to 5 inches of rainfall.



That's very pretty and creative. Here's what SPC had to say today about the 850 and 500 mb jets...
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

I wouldn't poo-poo the tornado risk just yet.
:)
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm in the 10-11 inch range.



In case the image doesn't work
Link


Can't you people do anything right?


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Some kind of wintry mix going on in my area here.


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Haha, neither work.


Link

Try again, here's the loop.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm in the 10-11 inch range.



In case the image doesn't work
Link

Haha, neither work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm in the 10-11 inch range.



In case the image doesn't work
Link
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Quoting WxGeekVA:

18Z NAM


0Z NAM

What a northward shift and stronger/wetter too!!!


This NAM loves you more GEEK, but we both see more snow than the 12z run.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
The ECMWF is forecasting a windy day for the central eastern seaboard on Feb 23rd...

Windspeeds of 20-25 knots from SE North Carolina to Maine

Windspeeds of 30-35 knots from extreme eastern Virginia to eastern Maine

Small area of 40 kts from eastern Massachusetts to eastern Maine
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

18Z NAM


0Z NAM

What a northward shift and stronger/wetter too!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Made a chart concerning the potential Severe Weather outbreak coming on Saturday. This looks like a high-shear, low-CAPE event, so the hail threat is going to be fairly minuscule. The tornado threat may also end up being a little low due to the lack of instability, but with high shear, isolated supercells are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary Severe Weather threat, as it appears that several organized storm clusters. Flooding will also be a high, non-severe concern with this event as many areas could see up to 5 inches of rainfall.

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257. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.3S 42.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
In the western semi-circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.4S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.4S 42.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 25.2S 42.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.7S 44.8E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, micro-waves data at 1722 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambican coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, ALADIN) or quite stationary during the next 12-24 hours then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) towards the Malagasy coasts

However, the last ECMWF ensemble still gives a quite equal weight to the two scenario ... for the moment the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS/UKMO consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond 60 hours. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Come on 0Z NAM... shift NORTH!!!!

Link



Been so long since I watched a model took me a minute to get it goin'. Lol. The memory slips a bit after a certain age. :)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.