Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on February 13, 2012

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Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.

The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.


Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.

Jeff Masters

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437. Patrap
1:34 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) GIOVANNA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
436. aspectre
1:30 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
435. severstorm
1:20 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm! People in the Mid Atlantic need to watch this as well!


Morning all, Man your all over this stuff for the weekend, Keep me up to date. Gots lots going on this weekend. Still chilly in my neck of the woods this morning 35 when i left for work.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
434. GeoffreyWPB
1:19 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODEL SHOW A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THU NIGHT AND INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FRONTAL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
LOOSES SUPPORT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE. ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD ENTER THE
NW GULF SATURDAY AND REACH THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG IT, FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING ON MONDAY.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
433. GeorgiaStormz
1:10 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Based on forecast discussions, it would seem none of the WFOs believe there will be a robust severe weather threat. Jackson MS (as usual), has the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms as far as I can tell.
But remember, due to the system that passed by last night, no one has fully analyzed this next system yet.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
432. Neapolitan
1:10 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting biff4ugo:
Happy Valentines Day,

Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
Madagascar's emergency service now says three people have died, but reports obviously aren't anywhere near complete. In fact, assessments may just be underway along the coast, where there are reports of storm surge making its way several blocks inland.

Giovanna
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
431. LargoFl
1:09 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be very serious here in FL this weekend. Anybody with weekend plans needs to pay attention to their NWS discussions!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

THE VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MODELS INDICATE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. VARIABILITY EXISTS
AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
INTERACTION WITHIN ANY OTHER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW. BUT POTENTIAL DOES SEEM TO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COULD BE AIDED BY CONSIDERABLE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BECOME FAIRLY HIGH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS AS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE ECMWF...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE...AT LEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA...SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS...THOUGH...TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK
pls keep us in florida up to date on this coming threat ok, ty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
430. LargoFl
1:07 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting biff4ugo:
Happy Valentines Day,

Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
GEE I hope so to, those people are going to need alot of help
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
429. biff4ugo
1:01 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Happy Valentines Day,

Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1571
428. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:00 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
NWS Birmingham, Alabama isn't even mentioning a Severe Weather threat. That's really dangerous considering they'll be in the area with the best tornado threat.

:\
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
427. bappit
12:56 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Discussion from the Houston-Galveston office of course is not directly applicable to folks north and east of here, but indicates another go round after Wednesday-Thursday. That part of the picture apparently is fuzzy though.

THE VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDS...AND BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHC OF PCPN. HOWEVER THESE LATEST PROGS ARE NOW POINTING TO THE LATTER PART OF FRI INTO SAT AS OUR "BEST" CHCS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE TX COASTLINE COMBINED WITH THE WWD PUSH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF. ATTM THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SEEM A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC BUT THESE STRONG DYNAMICS ARE HARD TO IGNORE.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6032
426. GeorgiaStormz
12:48 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Good Morning, did anyone notice Jasmine is still around?
TC13 is headed to Madagascar if it lasts that long:


Also from the SPC Day 2 Convective outlook:
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook


AND THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR
CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 50-70+ KT.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
425. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:45 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm! People in the Mid Atlantic need to watch this as well!


Just like last year, it's starting back to back....

Tomorrow, people from Shreveport to Jackson and then especially from Jackson to Birmingham need to pay close attention. This has the potential to be a tornado outbreak, featuring a few long-lived, large, damaging tornadoes.

Florida will need to watch through the Days 4-8 period.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
424. Neapolitan
12:42 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:
An extract from a BBC report on the Madagascar cyclone, its a short piece but gives a bit of an idea of the reasons we have not got much information out of there:-

"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.

But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."

Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328

In reality, things are probably very bad in the coastal villages now.

No doubt. And not just in the coastal villages, either. Precipitation is difficult to estimate from IR satellite, but there are populated eastern-central parts of the island--in and around Tananarivo, for instance--that appear to have endured a least 30-36 hours of what is likely at times torrential rainfall--and many of those same areas are even now still getting hammered. And, as can't be stressed enough, the majority of the island has been deforested and exfoliated down to the soil; there's really nothing to hold all that water back.

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
423. StormTracker2K
12:40 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Damm! People in the Mid Atlantic need to watch this as well!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
422. StormTracker2K
12:38 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Could be very serious here in FL this weekend. Anybody with weekend plans needs to pay attention to their NWS discussions!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

THE VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MODELS INDICATE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. VARIABILITY EXISTS
AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
INTERACTION WITHIN ANY OTHER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW. BUT POTENTIAL DOES SEEM TO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COULD BE AIDED BY CONSIDERABLE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BECOME FAIRLY HIGH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS AS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE ECMWF...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE...AT LEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA...SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS...THOUGH...TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
421. JNCali
12:37 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Just caught this also...
a major quake in CA would send them straight into bankruptcy

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
420. StormTracker2K
12:36 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Fire hose aimed at C & N FL later this week.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
419. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:35 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
"THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
"



Possible first hint that a Moderate risk may be required tomorrow?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
418. PlazaRed
12:19 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
An extract from a BBC report on the Madagascar cyclone, its a short piece but gives a bit of an idea of the reasons we have not got much information out of there:-

"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.

But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."

Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328

In reality, things are probably very bad in the coastal villages now.

Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
417. MAweatherboy1
11:46 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Good Morning
I've seen a report of only 1 confirmed fatality so far in Madagascar, though that total will likely rise... Also, what's with all the earthquakes last night: Magnitude 5+ quakes in Greece, Japan, Baja California, and Solomon Islands.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7788
416. Tropicsweatherpr
11:17 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
WeatherNerdPR,you mentioned Rio Cibuco and here is a warning for those that live in the path of that river.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012

PRC047-101-143-145-141245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0002.120214T0946Z-120214T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
546 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COROZAL MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VEGA BAJA...

* UNTIL 845 AM AST

* AT 542 AM AST U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT THE RIO CIBUCO
WAS AT 15.63 FEET...AND THEREFORE STILL ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE AND
SLOWLY RISING. AT 16 FEET THE RIVER MAY FLOOD ROAD NUMBER 2 IN VEGA
BAJA AND VEGA ALTA AS WELL AS ROADS 675 AND 676. FOR THOSE
REASONS...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 845 AM AST.


A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING
WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6641 1847 6633 1829 6633 1831 6644

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14275
415. Neapolitan
10:40 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Hey, look. Bookends:

Whole lotta shakin' goin' on



Magnitude 5.1 - local magnitude (Ml)
Time Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 2:09:28 AM (PST)
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 10:09:28 (UTC)
Distance from Calexico, CA - 67 km (41 miles) SSE (152 degrees)
Yuma, AZ - 80 km (50 miles) SW (219 degrees)
Brawley, CA - 98 km (61 miles) SSE (159 degrees)
Ocotillo, CA - 102 km (64 miles) SE (130 degrees)
Coordinates 32 deg. 8.4 min. N (32.141N), 115 deg. 9.6 min. W (115.159W)
Depth 31.1 km (19.3 miles)
Quality Poor
Location Quality Parameters Nst= 19, Nph= 19, Dmin=68 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Erho=2.2 km, Erzz=19.6 km, Gp=252 degrees
Event ID# ci11066877
Additional Information map ||
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
414. bappit
8:46 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
NCEP GFS 8-Day Weather Forecast
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413. VAbeachhurricanes
7:20 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
To clarify, what is this called?

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412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:01 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
6.0 east coast of japan honshu
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411. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:59 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
410. AussieStorm
6:51 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
It's from a program called AVN Retriever 1.12(Download link)
These are the images produced. It is fully customizable.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
409. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:21 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
post away aussie
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
408. VAbeachhurricanes
6:21 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Whats the chart called with the GFS results? like it shows wind speed, temps, humidity?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6506
407. AussieStorm
6:16 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Tell me if you want me to continue or stop posting these thumbnails please.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
406. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:10 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
405. AussieStorm
5:55 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
USA



Click Thumbnail for full size Image.
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404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:53 AM GMT on February 14, 2012


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
403. AussieStorm
5:51 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i expect a 7.5 to 8.1 to show soon been awhile

I have the same feeling. But where will it be is the $1billion question.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
402. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:47 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
i expect a 7.5 to 8.1 to show soon been awhile
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:45 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
entire ring of fire earth quake region pacific wide

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
400. AussieStorm
5:12 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting weatherdogg:
"February 13, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO – A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern California 50 km (31 miles) from Eureka, Ca. and 352 km from Sacramento according to the USGS. The earthquake had a preliminary depth of 32 km (20.4 miles) below the surface. The earthquake is the second to strike the region in 24 hours."

There have been 10 or so 5.6's along the PacRim in the past two weeks. What a bizarre coincidence.



== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

***This event has been revised.


Region: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Geographic coordinates: 41.143N, 123.790W
Magnitude: 5.6 Mw
Depth: 28 km
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Feb 2012 21:07:02
Time near the Epicenter: 13 Feb 2012 13:07:02
Local standard time in your area: 13 Feb 2012 21:07:02

Location with respect to nearby cities:
9 km (5 miles) SW (234 degrees) of Weitchpec, CA
28 km (17 miles) NNW (343 degrees) of Willow Creek, CA
29 km (18 miles) ENE (67 degrees) of Westhaven-Moonstone, CA
50 km (31 miles) NE (38 degrees) of Eureka, CA
349 km (217 miles) NW (326 degrees) of Sacramento, CA
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
399. AussieStorm
5:10 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.


















Click image for larger image.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
398. weatherdogg
5:10 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
"February 13, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO – A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern California 50 km (31 miles) from Eureka, Ca. and 352 km from Sacramento according to the USGS. The earthquake had a preliminary depth of 32 km (20.4 miles) below the surface. The earthquake is the second to strike the region in 24 hours."

There have been 10 or so 5.6's along the PacRim in the past two weeks. What a bizarre coincidence.
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
397. AtHomeInTX
4:54 AM GMT on February 14, 2012

Link

Louisiana
Severe Weather Awareness Week
February 13 - 17, 2012


Severe Weather Awareness Week Information

Tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail, and flash floods can occur at any time of the year. However, late winter and spring usually bring the greatest chance of these severe weather events across Louisiana.

The week beginning on February 13th has been designated as Severe Weather Awareness Week in the Pelican State. The goal of this special week is to call attention to the threats posed by these weather hazards, as well as to review severe weather safety rules in an attempt to reduce the loss of life and injury. Post-storm interviews with survivors of severe weather events prove that preventative safety measures greatly enhance the chance of survival.

Now is the time to develop a severe weather safety plan. A successful plan should include:

Knowledge of terminology such as watches and warnings
Knowledge of safety rules to follow when severe weather strikes
A reliable method of receiving emergency information
Review and testing of the plan.

Emergency managers, schools, government agencies, private businesses, and local citizens are encouraged to review their severe weather safety plans and conduct drills as appropriate...
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 161
396. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:49 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
10:45 AM WST February 14 2012
==================================

At 9:00 AM WST Tuesday a low (1000 hPa) was located near 13.0S 92.5E and is moving west at 12 knots. The low is expected to move west of 90E [out of the Western Region] during Tuesday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low

--
**very low because of the fact it will not be in the Perth Area of Responsibility soon.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
395. uncwhurricane85
4:46 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


the blue line shows the 0 degree isotherm at the 850mb level, precip north of the line usually falls as snow or ice.



ahhh thanks good to know, im usually here just during hurricane season cause i was a wilmington nc resident, but now live in noreaster territory...Thanks
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
394. VAbeachhurricanes
4:44 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i get the precip...but how do you know its snow/ice? its going to be mid 50's there this weekend, i understand the back side of low pressures can bring temps down considerbly, but i doubt they will come down 20-25 degrees for snow and ice


the blue line shows the 0 degree isotherm at the 850mb level, precip north of the line usually falls as snow or ice.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6506
393. uncwhurricane85
4:39 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Snow/Ice storm for North Carolina now on the GFS, jumping on the bandwagon with the other models for a storm this weekend, hopefully it will shift west and ride up the coast on the next runs, I WANT!



i get the precip...but how do you know its snow/ice? its going to be mid 50's there this weekend, i understand the back side of low pressures can bring temps down considerbly, but i doubt they will come down 20-25 degrees for snow and ice
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
392. Patrap
4:33 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
SH102012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) JASMINE


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
391. VAbeachhurricanes
4:32 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Snow/Ice storm for North Carolina now on the GFS, jumping on the bandwagon with the other models for a storm this weekend, hopefully it will shift west and ride up the coast on the next runs, I WANT!

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6506
390. aspectre
4:31 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
365 KoritheMan "Interesting that most of the deep convection in relation to Giovanna is in the northern semicircle...Hard to get moisture with offshore flow."
376 aspectre "Atmospheric saturation caused by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability?...
...playing off of Madagascar's mountainous spine instead of the condo towers in PanamaCity,Florida?
380 KoritheMan "Even I learned something new today. Thank you!"

Don't take it to the bank. Just a guess based on similarities between mountains and condo towers and your description of what's happening over Madagascar.
Like Patrap said, might be a good topic to explore for a college thesis or post-graduate dissertation if someone hasn't already made/solidified his/her reputation by getting a paper published on it.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
389. sunlinepr
4:29 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
Death-toll from European cold-snap exceeds 600
Posted on February 13, 2012
February 13, 2012 – MOSCOW – The death toll from Europe’s recent cold snap has passed 600, with more than a third of that tally in Russia alone, AFP reports. Heavy snow continues to fall in Romania and Bulgaria while the Russian health ministry said that 215 people have died, and more than 5,000 have suffered from hypothermia since the beginning of the year. In Moscow on Monday, the temperature was holding at minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit while the city of Toko in the far northern Sakha republic saw the mercury dip to minus 63 degrees, the wire service noted. –Market Watch
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
388. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:29 AM GMT on February 14, 2012


Jasmine striking Tonga.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
387. sunlinepr
4:27 AM GMT on February 14, 2012
5.6 magnitude earthquake shakes northern California
Posted on February 13, 2012

February 13, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO – A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern California 50 km (31 miles) from Eureka, Ca. and 352 km from Sacramento according to the USGS. The earthquake had a preliminary depth of 32 km (20.4 miles) below the surface. The earthquake is the second to strike the region in 24 hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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