Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on February 13, 2012

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Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.

The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.


Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ILwthrfan:


What is the total lag roughly of Temperature reaction to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere...20 years?


About 20-30 years.
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Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (932 hPa) located at 19.0S 50.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
85 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center extending up to 145 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
170 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.6S 47.1E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 20.9S 43.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.2S 39.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 23.8S 37.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

SSMIS 1357 PM UTC shows an not completed eyewall replacement cycle. Storm and hurricane force winds extension is therefore more extended and dangerous within landfall and cyclonic swell higher.

Inner eyewall is contracting and mean sea level pressure has been therefore adjusted.

The landfall is expected between Andovoranto and Vatomandry regions.

Gusts should exceed 120 km/h in an area from Mananjary in the south to Sainte-Matie island in the north, should exceed 150 km/h from Nosy-Varika in the south to Toamasina in the north and should exceed 200 km/h from Mahanoro in the south up to 90 km in the north of Andovoranto.

Coastal flooding are expected close in the south of the landfall area in relationship with the combined effect of a storm surge estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 meters and a more than 12 meter high cyclonic swell.

All inhabitants of this sectors are invited to closely follow the arrival of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over sea in the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected in the official RSMC forecast.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
After this storm this weekend FL and the SE coast is under the gun again. It looks as if a very active pattern is under way for FL.

DAY 10 Euro


DAY 10 GFS
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Big cold front in the Atlantic..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Any severe weather forecast for that timeframe?


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD GROW FOR DAY 4...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION.
AND POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC APPEARS LOW...AS A SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...AND SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY COMMENCES TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STALLING SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.
..BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA /EQUIVALENT
30 PERCENT DAY 3/.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very impressive storm on the Euro this weekend for FL and coastal GA, and Carolina's. Big rainmaker for FL as well.





Any severe weather forecast for that timeframe?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14012
Very impressive storm on the Euro this weekend for FL, coastal GA, and Carolina's. Big rainmaker for FL as well.



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Quoting RTSplayer:



Capitalism is legalized plantationism.

The key improvement is the Masters learned that it works best when the slaves don't realize they are slaves.

A brief glimpse at the Morlocks in the Time Machine shows what I am talking about...very old concept indeed, but it tells the tale well.

A few brain morlocks control all the other morlocks, and the morlocks use the humans for food and slave labor, "consuming" them.

This is how capitalism works.

The CEO and banks are the brain morlock.
A few executives are the other morlocks.
Everyone else is the "humans".

Now the ironic difference is, the "Time Machine" Morlocks were actually concerned with long-term survival, or so he claimed...

The real world Morlocks are not. They are only concerned with abusing everyone else for the duration of their lifetime, regardless of the consequences.

Fuel shortages and "demand spikes" are manipulated to keep normal people in line, imprisoned by the economic system.


imagine if energy was cheap, reliable, renewable, and clean! That would destroy a key control mechanism used by the brain Morlocks! They could never allow that!


Why do you think NASA has a patent on a LENR device for "producing heavy electrons" ? They have even admitted that it's probably useful, but nobody in government or media talks about it?

"Chain Reaction," anyone? Morgan Freeman and Ben Aflek. Nearly free energy that can be produced in your own home for literally a few dollars per year over the long term, without middle-men, will destroy the existing paradigm.

It may even uproot the very foundations of civilization.


So it's time to hunt them down like dogs, you say?
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Quoting BobWallace:


Currently sea ice extent is roughly the same as in 2007 which is the lowest year of record. But volume is 16,500 km3 vs. 19,500 km3, so the ice is about 15% thinner than during the record low year.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas

We're likely to see extent rise above the 2007 minimum, but with the limited number of weeks left in the freezing season that ice is going to be thin and should melt quickly.

We're not likely to have a normal thick ice "plug" in the Fram Straight which should allow ice to be flushed out into the warmer Atlantic much earlier in the melt season than usual.

If the Atlantic side of the Arctic melts/flushes early the loss of albedo and increased sea temperature could make for significant ice losses.




The photo from MODIS of the ice yesterday shows some major cracks which seem to show that the ice is frail. Can't see how the ice is affected further north though. Do you know if those cracks are normal?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Severe weather outbreak at the end of the week?


Maybe near the Gulf Coast as that is where the richest moisture/instability will be.
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Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice yesterday. How thick is it?



Currently sea ice extent is roughly the same as in 2007 which is the lowest year of record. But volume is 16,500 km3 vs. 19,500 km3, so the ice is about 15% thinner than during the record low year.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas

We're likely to see extent rise above the 2007 minimum, but with the limited number of weeks left in the freezing season that ice is going to be thin and should melt quickly.

We're not likely to have a normal thick ice "plug" in the Fram Straight which should allow ice to be flushed out into the warmer Atlantic much earlier in the melt season than usual.

If the Atlantic side of the Arctic melts/flushes early the loss of albedo and increased sea temperature could make for significant ice losses.


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75. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Round 2 of winter weather for central and north Arkansas today:



Hoping enough of it makes it to GA for 1 or 2 inches before it starts raining, but i doubt it will happen :( .

Sleet is changing over to rain now, here in Columbus, MS.
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The smog in Beijing, India, Africa and everywhere else is directly related to the Madagascar typhoon and the frequency of this type of event. I hope your niece is safe and wish all the best for the affected people and wildlife. I hope everyone will do their fair share to reduce co2 and carbon dust. If they don't, there will be a lot more tragedy to talk about.


Quoting mdshelly:
I'm a little disappointed in some of the comments posted lately. Clearly you are asked to refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion. And saying good luck to the lemurs is not exactly fair. This is the most densely populated area in the country. And further, my 20-year old niece is there with the peace corps, and while I'm sure they've evacuated by now, we haven't heard from her in days. This may not be affecting YOUR area, but it is a serious storm and will affect many people in an area that cannot handle this type of storm.
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Quoting mdshelly:
I'm a little disappointed in some of the comments posted lately. Clearly you are asked to refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion. And saying good luck to the lemurs is not exactly fair. This is the most densely populated area in the country. And further, my 20-year old niece is there with the peace corps, and while I'm sure they've evacuated by now, we haven't heard from her in days. This may not be affecting YOUR area, but it is a serious storm and will affect many people in an area that cannot handle this type of storm.

Sorry ot hear about your niece.. do you know what city she is close to?
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Still has good outflow....remarks:
131500z position near 18.8s 50.8e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 250 nm
east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at
12 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery (msi) shows an intense tc with an approximately 30 nm wide
eye and outer feeder bands currently effecting eastern Madagascar. A
131232z SSMI 85 ghz image shows and outer ring of deep convection
surrounding the inner eyewall convection. Tc 12s is clearly
undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle (erc) but is also 120
nm away from landfall. The erc may not have enough time to complete
the process. However, if it does, than intensities would be slightly
lower as tc giovanna makes landfall, but the radius of maximum winds
would also increase. The current position is based on the eye
feature in msi with high confidence. The current intensity is based
on Dvorak estimates ranging from 115-127 knots from pgtw, knes,
fmee, and fimp. Upper-level analysis indicates that tc 12s has
maintained its self-induced meso-anticyclone providing weak vertical
wind shear (vws) and excellent divergence aloft. Animated water
vapor imagery also continues to show excellent radial outflow. Tc
giovanna is expected to continue tracking westward along the
northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension located to the
south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of
Madagascar shortly before tau 12, then weaken due to frictional and
topographic drag, and exit into the Mozambique Channel by tau 36
before making a secondary and final landfall into southern
Mozambique by tau 120. Tc 12s should briefly re-intensify when over
the Mozambique Channel but begin to weaken by tau 96 due to limited
ocean heat content an increasingly unfavorable vws. The available
numerical guidance is in close agreement with the exception of the
GFDN and ECMWF which bring the vortex poleward after tau 72. This
track forecast is in line with consensus. Maximum significant wave
height at 131200z is 28 feet. Next warnings at 140300z and 141500z.//

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Round 2 of winter weather for central and north Arkansas today:



Hoping enough of it makes it to GA for 1 or 2 inches before it starts raining, but i doubt it will happen :( .

According to Google Earth winds along the coast of Madagascar are around 38 mph, almost TS strength
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Quoting Patrap:
Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?


All of what you said is true, but the Powers that be have neither your's nor mine interest's at the forefront of their Agenda.


When 5 companies make 111 Billion in the last 3 Fiscal Quarter's..well, they dont have to, actually.


The veil is lifting on all this, and one has to become aware of how we have been screwed, hoodwinked and catered to by "control en masse."


Conflict is the root of it all. This may help,it has for me.

"Totally Absolutely Without Conflict"



I have to say..Everyday that goes by, I realize how dangerous big money can be to the greater good of the Earth and its inhabitants...It makes me want to puke and i,m sick of it...sorry for my negative feelings on the subject..Now back to the regularly scheduled posts.
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I dont believe they were being inconsiderate. They were trying to lighten the mood a bit...People here know how deadly these storms are, and certainly have no ill will to any humans their. Do not take some of these posts so personal.
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Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?


All of what you said is true, but the Powers that be have neither your's nor mine interest's at the forefront of their Agenda.


When 5 companies make 111 Billion in the last 3 Fiscal Quarter's..well, they dont have to, actually.


The veil is lifting on all this, and one has to become aware of how we have been screwed, hoodwinked and catered to by "control en masse."


Conflict is the root of it all. This may help,it has for me.

"Totally Absolutely Without Conflict"



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
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Last August, Hurricane Irene spun through the Caribbean and parts of the eastern United States, leaving widespread wreckage in its wake. The Category 3 storm whipped up water levels, generating storm surges that swept over seawalls and flooded seaside and inland communities. Many hurricane analysts suggested, based on the wide extent of flooding, that Irene was a “100-year event”: a storm that only comes around once in a century.

However, researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every three to 20 years. The group simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions, finding that today’s “500-year floods” could, with climate change, occur once every 25 to 240 years. The researchers published their results in the current issue of Nature Climate Change.

....

Again, the group compared results from multiple models: one from the NHC which simulates storm surges quickly, though coarsely; another model that generates more accurate storm surges, though less efficiently; and a model in between, developed by Lin and her colleagues, that estimates relatively accurate surge floods, relatively quickly.

Today, a “100-year storm” means a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York. Roughly every 500 years, the region experiences towering, three-meter-high surge floods. Both scenarios, Lin notes, would easily top Manhattan’s seawalls, which stand 1.5 meters high.

But with added greenhouse gas emissions, the models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years; a three-meter flood would occur every 25 to 240 years.

“The highest [surge flood] was 3.2 meters, and this happened in 1821,” Lin says. “That’s the highest water level observed in New York City’s history, which is like a present 500-year event.”


http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-climate-today -year-years.html

Just imagine how much stronger and more frequent "100 year" events will become as we continue to add to our greenhouse gas blanket. And even if you don't live in a coastal area subject to extreme surges think about how many of your tax dollars are going to be spent on recovery and rebuilding.

Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/LOOP

click image for Loop dee Loop

ZOOM is available



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting SPLbeater:
Invest 99S might become our next Indian ocean cyclone-


from JTWC-

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITH 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14012
Quoting jeffs713:

Breeder Reactors also have an incredibly amazing ability to create materials for nuclear weapons, have a rather low energy output, and produce a different type of fuel.

Also, I think Chernobyl and Fukushima should be all you need to explain why nuclear power isn't exactly safe.
I will perfect the fusion reactor. I will perfect clean energy .Yes.
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I'm a little disappointed in some of the comments posted lately. Clearly you are asked to refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion. And saying good luck to the lemurs is not exactly fair. This is the most densely populated area in the country. And further, my 20-year old niece is there with the peace corps, and while I'm sure they've evacuated by now, we haven't heard from her in days. This may not be affecting YOUR area, but it is a serious storm and will affect many people in an area that cannot handle this type of storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
This is copied from the beijingAir twitter site a few minutes ago:

BeijingAir BeijingAir
02-14-2012; 01:00; PM2.5; 380.0; 420; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level) // Ozone; 0.0; 0; No Reading
59 minutes ago


I don't know how those poor people survive. Some of the biggest forest fires in the USA have not produced pm2.5 readings even close to these.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."



Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!

Breeder Reactors also have an incredibly amazing ability to create materials for nuclear weapons, have a rather low energy output, and produce a different type of fuel.

Also, I think Chernobyl and Fukushima should be all you need to explain why nuclear power isn't exactly safe.
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Invest 99S might become our next Indian ocean cyclone-


from JTWC-

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITH 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
1730Z Image

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
I got the link to work, but the pictures look identical to the images below. unless there is zero wind. They must not be refreshing.

Good like lemurs.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."



Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!
I would say we are "sitting" on it as you said. Uranium is VERY important, and the more we sit on the better. I do see your point.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."


Part of the reason is probably that regulations add significantly to the cost of US uranium

This may show some of the regulations:
Link
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Severe weather outbreak at the end of the week?


i hope not, i dont think im ready to have my weather radio blaring at night :D

i am ready for some thunderstorms. NWS has some showers for me on thursday, with temperatures in high 50's
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting hydrus:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."



Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!
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Arctic sea ice yesterday. How thick is it?

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"Ride the Storm" Commercial -- 2012 Mitsubishi All-Wheel Control Lineup,featuring the Weather Underground



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Dr. Masters was mentioned by the Washington Post's Capitol Weather Gang:Link
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
All we can do is to hope for the best. Sad, but true.
That eyewall regeneration cycle may be a big player when all is over.
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Quoting SteveDa1:


Interesting! Thanks for posting this graph but we are on day 44 of this year. That graph says day 35.

If I'm correct, it doesn't include the little upward surge of this past week that the ice extent map has shown.

Nonetheless, this has little significance if any. Just look at 2010. The ice area/extent was at normal at the end of march/early April but in no way has that stopped the ice from melting close to the record low that year.
Here's a better--and current--image with just the two record years and 2012:

I'm melting!

It's very likely that ice area will shoot up over the next several days as the AO has flip-flopped. However, there's the matter of insolation; there's a lot of ice in parts of the Bering Sea that haven't seen as much in other years. That ice is pretty far south, so it will obviously start picking up the sun's rays first. Too, it's been relatively warm across parts of the Arctic, so scientists don't expect to see a whole lot more ice growth before the melt starts in earnest. My own guess is for another 400K-600K before next month's maximum. And I'll put money on it that 2012 will see a new low minimum. Area-wise, for now I'd go with 2.7-2.9 million km2 in September...
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35%uFFFD 13.580, W 85%uFFFD 5.496

Just a minor event

When I first studied nuclear power in science class, there was 132 nuclear power in the U.S. - Illinois had the most with 15...These are the incidences we have had since 1979.. Plant Location Description Cost
(in millions
2006 $)
Nuclear power plant accidents in the U.S. with more than US$140 million in property damage[50][51] March 28, 1979 Three Mile Island Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania Loss of coolant and partial core meltdown, see Three Mile Island accident and Three Mile Island accident health effects US$2,400
March 9, 1985 Browns Ferry Athens, Alabama Instrumentation systems malfunction during startup, which led to suspension of operations at all three Units US$1,830
April 11, 1986 Pilgrim Plymouth, Massachusetts Recurring equipment problems force emergency shutdown of Boston Edison%u2019s plant US$1,001
March 31, 1987 Peach Bottom Delta, Pennsylvania Units 2 and 3 shutdown due to cooling malfunctions and unexplained equipment problems US$400
December 19, 1987 Nine Mile Point Scriba, New York Malfunctions force Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation to shut down Unit 1 US$150
February 20, 1996 Millstone Waterford, Connecticut Leaking valve forces shutdown of Units 1 and 2, multiple equipment failures found US$254
September 2, 1996 Crystal River Crystal River, Florida Balance-of-plant equipment malfunction forces shutdown and extensive repairs US$384
February 16, 2002 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio Severe corrosion of control rod forces 24-month outage US$143
February 1, 2010 Vermont Yankee Vernon, Vermont Deteriorating underground pipes leak radioactive tritium into groundwater supplies US$700--Wiki/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8 Skyepony "Can't get the link to Andilana Beach Hotel cam to work. Hope that hasn't gone down already."

Works for me. Probably hit it after sunset but before the outdoor lights came on. Anyway, HotelAndilanaBeach sends its images through meteosystem for the NorthNorthWestward view

and meteosystem for the SouthSouthEastward view.

Right now, there ain't much to see except what's lit by the resort lights.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting JNCali:
1:the proposed fed budget.. I think the koolaid must have fermented :(

2: Prayers for Madagascar...

3: Giovanna only has 250 miles to cross before getting over more warm SST's before hitting a region of park reserves is Southern Mozambique.. I would hate to be on safari and have my tent blow away!


You realize the first 2 trillion of that is three things:

Military, Interest payments, and Social security


Now the military is 600 billion annually, and the interest is about the same.

And MOST of the interest is actually due to prior military spending.


Now if our government operated with some common sense as it requires war, and required a reprisal from rogue states such as Iraq and Afghanistan, then much of the debt would not exist. Iraq should be paying the U.S., Kuwait, and Israel a 10% reprisal on oil from the original Gulf War. Afghanistan should be too since 2001.

Instead, we spend our money in their nations buidling schools, roads, and infrastructure for them, like morons.


It's all connected, friend.

PC and multi-culturalism is a big part of the problem.

And I'm not talking about the democrats either. This all actually went wrong under Reagan and George Bush senior, and then Junior screwed it up even worse.

When somebody wrongs you and your allies, for an unprovoked attack and power grab, then they owe you a reprisal, you don't owe them anything.
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393.09ppm





Atmospheric CO2 for January 2012
Preliminary data released February 6, 2012
(Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting PlazaRed:

Has anybody got any webcam images of this level of pollution?
It seems hardly possible that this much pollution is being produced and so uniformly consistent, its more like an intentional smoke screen.
This area is a significant proportion of the earths land surface.For that matter any area is I suppose if you are living on it!


These things will continue as we are responsible for treating our own Life Giving Bio-sphere like a Mardi Gras Port-o-Let during Fat Tuesday.

They are consequences, and they will continue to increase exponentially.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting RTSplayer:


China's fossil fuel consumption is increasing at a ridiculous rate, even though they are also one of the leading nations in wind and solar.

Washington times article, 2009

"if China’s energy usage structure remains unchanged, its emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming would reach 17 billion tons a year by 2050. That would represent 60 percent of total global emissions and three times China’s current production,"



At that rate, China alone would be contributing almost 3.4PPM co2 to the atmosphere, since we currently make 30 billion tons world wide, and half to 2/3rds of that is absorbed by the oceans and plants.

So just by themselves they would nearly double the net annual CO2 increase by 2050...

That's not even counting other developing nations and 3rd world nations.

The slope of the keeling curve would likely be 6 or 7 by 2050 at this rate.


What is the total lag roughly of Temperature reaction to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere...20 years?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:

Has anybody got any webcam images of this level of pollution?
It seems hardly possible that this much pollution is being produced and so uniformly consistent, its more like an intentional smoke screen.
This area is a significant proportion of the earths land surface.For that matter any area is I suppose if you are living on it!


China's fossil fuel consumption is increasing at a ridiculous rate, even though they are also one of the leading nations in wind and solar.

Washington times article, 2009

"if China’s energy usage structure remains unchanged, its emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming would reach 17 billion tons a year by 2050. That would represent 60 percent of total global emissions and three times China’s current production,"



At that rate, China alone would be contributing almost 3.4PPM co2 to the atmosphere, since we currently make 30 billion tons world wide, and half to 2/3rds of that is absorbed by the oceans and plants.

So just by themselves they would nearly double the net annual CO2 increase by 2050...

That's not even counting other developing nations and 3rd world nations.

The slope of the keeling curve would likely be 6 or 7 by 2050 at this rate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1:the proposed fed budget.. I think the koolaid must have fermented :(

2: Prayers for Madagascar...

3: Giovanna only has 250 miles to cross before getting over more warm SST's before hitting a region of park reserves is Southern Mozambique.. I would hate to be on safari and have my tent blow away!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.