Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on February 13, 2012

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Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.

The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.


Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.

Jeff Masters

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237. Xyrus2000
11:24 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
Add TMI, Davis-Bessie, and all the other "near misses" to the list.

It's pretty much impossible to build and operate nuclear reactors without human involvement.


I never said otherwise. But Chernobyl was caused by unimaginable stupidity. Fukishima was caused by desire for profits (Pay to upgrade plant, or keep it running another 10 years?).

Newer designs make meltdown pretty much impossible. If we can utilize thorium then meltdowns become physically impossible.

All energy/electricity generation involves humans but nuclear is unique in the level of danger it brings to the table. Not only the danger of catastrophic failure, but the danger of nuclear waste that will exist for centuries.


I disagree. First, we already have technology to greatly reduce the waste problem, but we have chosen not to use it. Second, the pollution produced by traditional power sources (such as coal) is causing far more harm than nuclear, even including nuclear accidents.

Wind, geothermal and hydro are already cheaper than new nuclear. Solar is about the same price and tidal should soon be cheaper. In the short run we can back up renewables with inexpensive natural gas and then replace NG with storage as those technologies mature.


While I agree, this relies on a) No one throwing up idiotic political roadblocks, b) the storage technology will exist, and c) assuming that there will be enough fossil fuels to satisfy world demand without significantly increasing energy prices between then and now. This is also ignoring what impacts there could be from continued use of fossil fuels at an increasing rate for the next decades/centuries it will take to make a full transition.

Why bother with nuclear when less dangerous and less expensive technology is at hand?


Because it isn't. Our infrastructure is not set up to handle renewables. Some areas can't really utilize renewables, or if they can you have to be a little careful about how they do it. I'm not saying it can't be done, but there are a lot of ancillary costs and considerations that need to be taken into account. That's why the reports on an all-green power setup typically say 2050 is about the earliest it would be feasible.

Just think about generation which has no fuel or significant "labor/security" input. We commonly calculate the cost of power based on a 20 year span. Solar panels produce power as cheaply as new nuclear for those 20 years and then will produce electricity for essentially zero cents per kWh for another 20, 30 or more years.


That's assuming you live in area that gets enough sun to make it worthwhile. You also have the sporadic nature of solar to deal with. With the current efficiencies of solar, it would take a lot of solar panels to offset a significant percentage of the current grid.

Wind is already considerably cheaper than nuclear and after the 20 year payoff period turbines should crank out almost free electricity for another 20 years.


Again, that's assuming your in an area that can take advantage of wind power. With climate change, these areas may even shift over time. There's also the sporadic nature of wind power as well.

We can, right now, replace coal with a combination of wind, solar and natural gas and slow climate change.


We can do it with natural gas, but wind and solar won't help all that much until we have the grid in place that can handle it. Sure, if you're just looking at MW numbers then it's possible, but transitioning takes a lot more than just producing the power. That's the easy part.

When one considers the health and environmental costs of burning coal and the avoided costs of more "100 year" events moving quickly to renewables would be a huge money saver. That route leaves those who follow us with established wind farms which will need turbine replacement every 40 or so years and solar arrays which will need panel replacement after 40 (100?) years.


If renewables were a simple drop in for our current production, then I'd agree. But it isn't that simple. It's sort of like electric cars. It would be far more efficient to have everyone drive electric cars and burn the fuel in a powerplant. But even assuming you had the battery tech for long drives and quick recharges, our grid would burst into flames if we tried to do this.

And no piles of radioactive waste.


The waste isn't the problem. The problem is we aren't reprocessing it back into fuel.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1654
236. washingtonian115
11:23 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-O HZ026- 034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-14030 0-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBEL L-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SH ELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERM ONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE.. .ALEXANDRIA...
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE.. .KENTON...
CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLE FONTAINE...
MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFI ELD...LONDON...
COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...
LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...CINC INNATI...
MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL YOU SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH
YOUR INTENDED DESTINATION.


Does this include D.C??.If so what about me???
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
235. yqt1001
11:22 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh yeah, Here is hurricane Isabel, which became a 5, and did a lot of damage too.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel

2003

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Igor came very close 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Opal came very close 1995


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Inez came very close in 1966, considering how much more primitive technology was back then, it could have beena 5 briefly and nobody would know the difference.


So 4 of the last 9 el ninos had category 5's, all of which eventually made landfall, 2 of which landfalled as category 5.

3 of the other 5 el ninos had borderline cat4/cat5 storms, all of which made landfall.


From the remaining 2, Alicia was a category 3, multi-billion dollar storm.


I guess that would be el nino myth busted?


2009, 2006 and 2004 were the only El Nino years in the last decade. 1995 was also a La Nina year.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
234. washingtonian115
11:21 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Ugh Isabel, those trees in my avatar hated Isabel.
Ooooooh that Isabel....Hate her so much.She knocked power out for my area for two weeks.And flooded my basement along with several fallen trees everywhere.The power lines were down so we had to be very careful.My food rotted and you could smell it right before you even hit the kitchen.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
233. Ameister12
11:20 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL YOU SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH
YOUR INTENDED DESTINATION.


Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
232. VAbeachhurricanes
11:15 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh yeah, Here is hurricane Isabel, which became a 5, and did a lot of damage too.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel

2003

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Igor came very close 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Opal came very close 1995


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Inez came very close in 1966, considering how much more primitive technology was back then, it could have beena 5 briefly and nobody would know the difference.


So 4 of the last 9 el ninos had category 5's, all of which eventually made landfall, 2 of which landfalled as category 5.

3 of the other 5 el ninos had borderline cat4/cat5 storms, all of which made landfall.


From the remaining 2, Alicia was a category 3, multi-billion dollar storm.


I guess that would be el nino myth busted?


Ugh Isabel, those trees in my avatar hated Isabel.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
231. RTSplayer
11:11 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Oh yeah, Here is hurricane Isabel, which became a 5, and did a lot of damage too.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel

2003

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Igor came very close 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Opal came very close 1995


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Inez came very close in 1966, considering how much more primitive technology was back then, it could have beena 5 briefly and nobody would know the difference.


So 4 of the last 9 el ninos had category 5's, all of which eventually made landfall, 2 of which landfalled as category 5.

3 of the other 5 el ninos had borderline cat4/cat5 storms, all of which made landfall.


From the remaining 2, Alicia was a category 3, multi-billion dollar storm.


I guess that would be el nino myth busted?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
230. washingtonian115
11:11 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Let rain!.Let sleet!.Let errr what did the guy on that car commercial say again?? Can't think about it right now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
229. LargoFl
11:08 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if the trend this weekend will be for severe wx in FL Saturday then a snowstorm on Sunday across the Mid Atlantic infact I will go on a limb and say somebody east of DC could get 6" plus as even the GFS is now pumping some significant cold on the backside of this low forming off NC.
local weather guys are hinting for something this weekend, keep us informed ok and ty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42057
228. washingtonian115
11:06 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Everyone knows if you want bad weather make outside plans! Haha
I know.It's like the Doc having vacation plans during hurricane season.And something "miraculously forms".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LOLOL.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
227. aspectre
11:06 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
185 WxGeekVA "Toamasina, Madagascar weather station:
Current Temperature: 24C
High: 29C | Low: 25C
Rain/Windy
Visibility: 4.01 km
Feels like: 24C
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 61.15 km/h
"

Is the timestamp for that report near the time of landfall?
If so, it appears that landfall occurred more than 90miles southsouthwest of Toamasina.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
226. WxGeekVA
11:05 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
225. ScottLincoln
11:04 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


convert that to mph/kts please :)


Just type your conversion into google.

So, for example, if someone posts "60km/h" you would type:
"60 kilometers per hour to miles to per hour" into a google search bar. Works for many different types of units.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3321
224. GeorgiaStormz
11:04 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
The next 7 days looks interesting, first a possible severe weather event, then a possible snowstorm.
(Neither of which will probably affect me)

By the way, which has been the most reliable model this year, I think it has been the GFS, at least for the southeast US.

All of Google Earth's Madagascar weather stations on the coast are down. Oh well it was bound to happen :(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
223. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:03 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32808
222. washingtonian115
11:00 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would I have you on ignore? lol.

I want snow so badly. :(
Everyone on the east coast (except for the snow haters) want snow very badly.The ski resorts have not been doing that good this year.Some are closing the slopes early.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
221. VAbeachhurricanes
10:59 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
You probally have me on ignore but hope you get some before this sorry winter leaves the stage.Grrr I'm still up set that some of my plans will have to be cancled...If that forecast by the modles hold true.


Everyone knows if you want bad weather make outside plans! Haha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
220. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:56 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
You probally have me on ignore but hope you get some before this sorry winter leaves the stage.Grrr I'm still up set that some of my plans will have to be cancled...If that forecast by the modles hold true.

Why would I have you on ignore? lol.

I want snow so badly. :(
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32808
219. washingtonian115
10:55 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've had 0"...
You probally have me on ignore but hope you get some before this sorry winter leaves the stage.Grrr I'm still up set that some of my plans will have to be cancled...If that forecast by the modles hold true.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
218. VAbeachhurricanes
10:55 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've had 0"...


HA I win! Well lets hope it hits that gulf stream and bombs out.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
217. washingtonian115
10:53 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Who says category 5 atlantic storms don't form in el nino years?

Camille
Andrew
Mitch


?

2 of them made landfall AS category 5...and Mitch could have land fall as a 5 if it didn't stall out.

Mitch ended up being the most deadly atlantic storm in many decades. If you take all atlantic hurricane and TS deaths since, including 2003, 2004, and 2005, it still doesn't add up to Mitch.


These are 3 of the worst landfalls in Atlantic basin history, and they all happened in El Nino years.
I know pretty ironic right?.I just hope people don't let their guard down thinking 'Oh we'll be safe it's an El nino going on".That's certanily not true.And you've listed pretty good examples.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
216. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:53 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
A winter storm would be welcome have only had a dusting this year so far. I'm looking forward to the 0z gfs

I've had 0"...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32808
215. StormTracker2K
10:52 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
214. VAbeachhurricanes
10:51 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
A winter storm would be welcome have only had a dusting this year so far. I'm looking forward to the 0z gfs
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
213. SPLbeater
10:50 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've been through Floyd (don't remember), Alex, Charley, Ophelia, Irene, and many more that I can't quite remember.

Out of all of these, believe it or not, Ophelia had to be the worse. The winds were literally screaming outside, we had pieces of our roof flying off, and lots of flooding. It was pitch black too because the storm made landfall at night, and we lost power and didn't have a generator.


i think that i was caught in TS Alberto of 06...i was with my family at the outer banks. the waves were coming up to the dunes and knocking the trash cans over. winds were pretty rough, TS force. one thing i remember is watching the seagulls fly sideways lol.

other then that.....nothin :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
212. RTSplayer
10:49 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Who says category 5 atlantic storms don't form in el nino years?

Camille
Andrew
Mitch


?

2 of them made landfall AS category 5...and Mitch could have land fall as a 5 if it didn't stall out.

Mitch ended up being the most deadly atlantic storm in many decades. If you take all atlantic hurricane and TS deaths since, including 2003, 2004, and 2005, it still doesn't add up to Mitch.


These are 3 of the worst landfalls in Atlantic basin history, and they all happened in El Nino years.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
211. SPLbeater
10:46 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
aspectre "...Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours...
...And it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update."
170 SPLbeater "There are plenty of other weather forecasting offices issuing updates on Giovanna than the JTWC."

True, hence my use of "eg" (exempli gratia : for the sake of example) to denote that I was using the JTWC as an example of the problems one encounters in getting&reporting reliable&timely information from FirstWorld weather services about storms located in nonFirstWorld areas.


Link

There are your 'other' weather offices :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
210. washingtonian115
10:46 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.
Well I've been through several that have come up from N.C or VA.Even as a native Washingtonian we've had some strong winter storms and being stuck without power is no fun.Along with the insurance companies and the clean up....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
209. washingtonian115
10:43 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.
Nooooooooooo.Out of all weekends why this one?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
208. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


i was in floyd...but i wasnt able to remember it :D

I was just outside of the rain shield in irene, 30mph winds wit 40mph gusts, but that dont count

I've been through Floyd (don't remember), Alex, Charley, Ophelia, Irene, and many more that I can't quite remember.

Out of all of these, believe it or not, Ophelia had to be the worse. The winds were literally screaming outside, we had pieces of our roof flying off, and lots of flooding. It was pitch black too because the storm made landfall at night, and we lost power and didn't have a generator.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32808
207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:41 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55989
206. aspectre
10:40 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
aspectre "...Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours...
...And it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update."
170 SPLbeater "There are plenty of other weather forecasting offices issuing updates on Giovanna than the JTWC."

True, hence my use of "eg" (exempli gratia : for the sake of example) to denote that I was using the JTWC as an example of the problems one encounters in getting&reporting reliable&timely information from FirstWorld weather services about storms located in nonFirstWorld areas.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
205. MAweatherboy1
10:40 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Good afternoon/evening all. Madagascar is getting hit hard today... prayers go out to them. Also saw the fairly big earthquake in California... Interesting stuff there too
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8034
204. SPLbeater
10:39 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:



65 (kph / mph) = 40.3891275 MPH. Tropical storm force conditions being reported....


:D

i dont like kilometers.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
203. StormTracker2K
10:38 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Looks as if the trend this weekend will be for severe wx in FL Saturday then a snowstorm on Sunday across the Mid Atlantic infact I will go on a limb and say somebody east of DC could get 6" plus as even the GFS is now pumping some significant cold on the backside of this low forming off NC.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
202. SPLbeater
10:38 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.


i was in floyd...but i wasnt able to remember it :D

I was just outside of the rain shield in irene, 30mph winds wit 40mph gusts, but that dont count
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
201. WxGeekVA
10:37 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


convert that to mph/kts please :)



65 (kph / mph) = 40.3891275 MPH. Tropical storm force conditions being reported....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.

They're not my numbers, they're the NWS's. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32808
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.


I really hope so!!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
AWCN16 CWHX 131920
Special weather summary message for Newfoundland and Labrador issued
by Environment Canada at 3:50 PM NST Monday 13 February 2012.

An intense storm system developed south of Nova Scotia on Saturday
and tracked northward into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Sunday.
This storm affected the entire province. Heavy rain and hurricane
force wind gusts caused flooding and power outages over parts of the
island.

The following are updated unofficial rainfall (millimetres) amounts
as of 8:30 AM NST Monday observed at:
Logy bay .............................93.0 mm
Pippy park .............................72.0 mm
St. John's airport............................70.2 mm
Wreckhouse .............................53.2 mm
Port aux Basques .............................34.0 mm
Burgeo .............................30.5 mm
St. Lawrence .............................26.3 mm
Argentia .............................26.1 mm
Bonavista .............................25.6 mm
Cape Race .............................22.5 mm
Terra Nova park .............................21.8 mm
Gander .............................19.6 mm

The following are updated unofficial maximum wind observations:
Wreckhouse .................................148 km/h
Note..The wind equipment at Wreckhouse failed at the peak of the
storm.

Sagona Island.................................139 km/h
Bell island lighthouse private station .......129 km/h
Burgeo........................................124 km/h
St. Anthony...................................122 km/h
Daniel's Harbour..............................120 km/h
Stephenville airport..........................120 km/h
Twillingate...................................119 km/h
Bonavista.....................................117 km/h
Port aux Basques..............................115 km/h
Argentia......................................107 km/h
Cape Race.....................................107 km/h
St. John's airport............................107 km/h
Winterland .................................107 km/h
St. Lawrence..................................106 km/h
Deer Lake airport..............................90 km/h

End/


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55989
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Toamasina, Madagascar weather station:


Current Temperature: 24°C
High: 29°C | Low: 25°C
Rain/Windy
Visibility: 4.01 km
Feels like: 24°C
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 61.15 km/h

Updated Mon, 13 Feb 2012 8:59 pm EAT


convert that to mph/kts please :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting washingtonian115:
I like seeing strong storms as much of the nest guy.But the less the sorta better?.Especially for people in hurricane ally.Ooooooof course that doesn't mean tropical storms can't do no harm.


Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting wunderweatherman123:

la nina dying wont help if we get el nino forgot about getting a cat 5 although andrew was a lucky case if we get neutral expect 13 to 16 storms and maybe something strong



El Nino is great for 140kts or more cyclones. During an El Nino year there are tons of category 5 cyclones in the pacific. The atlantic will go bust, but the other basins usually light up in place.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting yqt1001:


Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.
I like seeing strong storms as much of the nest guy.But the less the sorta better?.Especially for people in hurricane ally.Ooooooof course that doesn't mean tropical storms can't do no harm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17801
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That IS for Sunday.

Mine--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Washington, D.C.--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I've lived and worked on and around the ice in Minnesota, Canada, North Dakota, Wyoming, etc., so I have a good understanding of its behavior. (I used to play hockey on the frozen St. Croix River, and was always amazed at just how thunderously loud the BOOM! of the cracking ice could be as the temperature dropped in the evening.) My point was, however, that compared to past years, Arctic Sea ice is not really expanding much this year at all--just a few percent of normal--so the large-scale cracking and fissuring we're seeing on satellite is most likely not due to simple expansion. (Too, there are more polynas in the area than usual, and that's a cause for wonder, if not concern.)
hockey on the St. Croix, eh? doubt much of that is going on this year around here :(
a big BOOM would mean bad news after the winter we've been having..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS trends West with the storm!!!

18Z run:


12Z run: (same time)

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55989
Quoting yqt1001:


Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.

la nina dying wont help if we get el nino forgot about getting a cat 5 although andrew was a lucky case if we get neutral expect 13 to 16 storms and maybe something strong

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
So? It's that better?.I'm sure the Phillipines wouldn't want a repeat of 2009 and what they had to go through.Nor Florida and the Gulf coast would want a repeat of 04/05....


Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286


overland significanly weaker and continues to weaken
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55989

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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