Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar
Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.
The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.
Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 — Blog Index
Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?
Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?
How long will nuclear fuel last?
"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."
Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!
i hope not, i dont think im ready to have my weather radio blaring at night :D
i am ready for some thunderstorms. NWS has some showers for me on thursday, with temperatures in high 50's
Part of the reason is probably that regulations add significantly to the cost of US uranium
This may show some of the regulations:
Link
Good like lemurs.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
from JTWC-
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITH 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
Breeder Reactors also have an incredibly amazing ability to create materials for nuclear weapons, have a rather low energy output, and produce a different type of fuel.
Also, I think Chernobyl and Fukushima should be all you need to explain why nuclear power isn't exactly safe.
BeijingAir BeijingAir
02-14-2012; 01:00; PM2.5; 380.0; 420; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level) // Ozone; 0.0; 0; No Reading
59 minutes ago
I don't know how those poor people survive. Some of the biggest forest fires in the USA have not produced pm2.5 readings even close to these.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/LOOP
click image for Loop dee Loop
ZOOM is available
However, researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every three to 20 years. The group simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions, finding that today’s “500-year floods” could, with climate change, occur once every 25 to 240 years. The researchers published their results in the current issue of Nature Climate Change.
....
Again, the group compared results from multiple models: one from the NHC which simulates storm surges quickly, though coarsely; another model that generates more accurate storm surges, though less efficiently; and a model in between, developed by Lin and her colleagues, that estimates relatively accurate surge floods, relatively quickly.
Today, a “100-year storm” means a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York. Roughly every 500 years, the region experiences towering, three-meter-high surge floods. Both scenarios, Lin notes, would easily top Manhattan’s seawalls, which stand 1.5 meters high.
But with added greenhouse gas emissions, the models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years; a three-meter flood would occur every 25 to 240 years.
“The highest [surge flood] was 3.2 meters, and this happened in 1821,” Lin says. “That’s the highest water level observed in New York City’s history, which is like a present 500-year event.”
http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-climate-today -year-years.html
Just imagine how much stronger and more frequent "100 year" events will become as we continue to add to our greenhouse gas blanket. And even if you don't live in a coastal area subject to extreme surges think about how many of your tax dollars are going to be spent on recovery and rebuilding.
Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?
All of what you said is true, but the Powers that be have neither your's nor mine interest's at the forefront of their Agenda.
When 5 companies make 111 Billion in the last 3 Fiscal Quarter's..well, they dont have to, actually.
The veil is lifting on all this, and one has to become aware of how we have been screwed, hoodwinked and catered to by "control en masse."
Conflict is the root of it all. This may help,it has for me.
"Totally Absolutely Without Conflict"
Hoping enough of it makes it to GA for 1 or 2 inches before it starts raining, but i doubt it will happen :( .
According to Google Earth winds along the coast of Madagascar are around 38 mph, almost TS strength
131500z position near 18.8s 50.8e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 250 nm
east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at
12 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery (msi) shows an intense tc with an approximately 30 nm wide
eye and outer feeder bands currently effecting eastern Madagascar. A
131232z SSMI 85 ghz image shows and outer ring of deep convection
surrounding the inner eyewall convection. Tc 12s is clearly
undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle (erc) but is also 120
nm away from landfall. The erc may not have enough time to complete
the process. However, if it does, than intensities would be slightly
lower as tc giovanna makes landfall, but the radius of maximum winds
would also increase. The current position is based on the eye
feature in msi with high confidence. The current intensity is based
on Dvorak estimates ranging from 115-127 knots from pgtw, knes,
fmee, and fimp. Upper-level analysis indicates that tc 12s has
maintained its self-induced meso-anticyclone providing weak vertical
wind shear (vws) and excellent divergence aloft. Animated water
vapor imagery also continues to show excellent radial outflow. Tc
giovanna is expected to continue tracking westward along the
northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension located to the
south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of
Madagascar shortly before tau 12, then weaken due to frictional and
topographic drag, and exit into the Mozambique Channel by tau 36
before making a secondary and final landfall into southern
Mozambique by tau 120. Tc 12s should briefly re-intensify when over
the Mozambique Channel but begin to weaken by tau 96 due to limited
ocean heat content an increasingly unfavorable vws. The available
numerical guidance is in close agreement with the exception of the
GFDN and ECMWF which bring the vortex poleward after tau 72. This
track forecast is in line with consensus. Maximum significant wave
height at 131200z is 28 feet. Next warnings at 140300z and 141500z.//
Sorry ot hear about your niece.. do you know what city she is close to?
Sleet is changing over to rain now, here in Columbus, MS.
Currently sea ice extent is roughly the same as in 2007 which is the lowest year of record. But volume is 16,500 km3 vs. 19,500 km3, so the ice is about 15% thinner than during the record low year.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas
We're likely to see extent rise above the 2007 minimum, but with the limited number of weeks left in the freezing season that ice is going to be thin and should melt quickly.
We're not likely to have a normal thick ice "plug" in the Fram Straight which should allow ice to be flushed out into the warmer Atlantic much earlier in the melt season than usual.
If the Atlantic side of the Arctic melts/flushes early the loss of albedo and increased sea temperature could make for significant ice losses.
Maybe near the Gulf Coast as that is where the richest moisture/instability will be.
The photo from MODIS of the ice yesterday shows some major cracks which seem to show that the ice is frail. Can't see how the ice is affected further north though. Do you know if those cracks are normal?
So it's time to hunt them down like dogs, you say?
Any severe weather forecast for that timeframe?
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD GROW FOR DAY 4...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION.
AND POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC APPEARS LOW...AS A SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...AND SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY COMMENCES TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STALLING SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA /EQUIVALENT
30 PERCENT DAY 3/.
DAY 10 Euro
DAY 10 GFS
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 13 2012
================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (932 hPa) located at 19.0S 50.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
85 NM radius from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center extending up to 145 NM in the eastern semi-circle
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
170 NM radius from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.6S 47.1E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 20.9S 43.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.2S 39.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 23.8S 37.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
=====================
SSMIS 1357 PM UTC shows an not completed eyewall replacement cycle. Storm and hurricane force winds extension is therefore more extended and dangerous within landfall and cyclonic swell higher.
Inner eyewall is contracting and mean sea level pressure has been therefore adjusted.
The landfall is expected between Andovoranto and Vatomandry regions.
Gusts should exceed 120 km/h in an area from Mananjary in the south to Sainte-Matie island in the north, should exceed 150 km/h from Nosy-Varika in the south to Toamasina in the north and should exceed 200 km/h from Mahanoro in the south up to 90 km in the north of Andovoranto.
Coastal flooding are expected close in the south of the landfall area in relationship with the combined effect of a storm surge estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 meters and a more than 12 meter high cyclonic swell.
All inhabitants of this sectors are invited to closely follow the arrival of this dangerous cyclone.
Giovanna should be back over sea in the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected in the official RSMC forecast.
The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
About 20-30 years.
The morlocks are much too smart for that, plus they have all the guns and the money.
Besides, even if you somehow overthrow the brain morlocks in one nation or region, some other brain morlocks will just take over.
The banks own both your creditor and your employer, and if they want to punish you or take your stuff, all they need do is make a phone call and tell your boss to fire you. You lose your house, which goes back to their member bank which they own, and they got all the currency you paid for your mortgage.
You see, when the same company owns both your employer and your bank, through a complicated web of stocks and brand names and other smoke and mirrors, then they can basicly manipulate you however they want. Even if they don't have 100% ownership, they often have as much as 10% ownership.
Not only do they own your employer and your bank, they also own the grocery store and the shopping center.
They profit by everything you do.
They use the profits to manipulate you ever more.
Thanks for checking the webcam link. I'm still having no luck.
First year ice is less the 1 meter thick, which is now what most of the arctic is comprised of.
Thanks...
Nice avatar...Bleach IMO is the 2nd best anime of all time.
Tallahassee, FL: -2F
Washington, DC: -15F
Minden, LA: -16F
Monterey, VA: -29F
Atlanta, GA: -9F
This was, of course, part of the Great Blizzard of 1899, which saw the port of New Orleans completely iced over, blizzard conditions on the Florida coast north of Tampa, sub-30 temps into Miami, and a killing frost into Cuba.
Click for larger weather map:
amazing.
Shortcut saved.
Makes you wonder...
would like to see it hold up in the focal point of a 1m^2 spot Fresnel lens, maybe even 2m^2. If it can hold up in there, it'd survive almost anyhing.
I wonder what this stuff costs to make?
Imagine if you could make thin panels of this stuff to put fire blocks between rooms in a house, or even one every 4 to 8 feet in the wall along one of the studs.
House fires wouldn't be able to spread at all!
New findings on ice melt and sea level rise: What does it mean?
I can't answer that question. I know that there has been some discussion on http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/ about increased cracks and that the common held belief is that while the area between the cracks will freeze, that new ice will be quite thin and melt out early.
Thinner ice is going to crack. Wave action creates cracks/fractures and the mechanical action increases melting. As wind/wave operate on thinner ice it gets churned into "party punch slush" which is easily pushed into warmer water where it melts.
At the other pole we're observing an enormous 19 mile long, up to 800 foot wide crack/fissure in the Pine Island Glacier which promises to create an immense ice berg once that fracturing is complete. A 350 square mile, 1,650 foot thick iceberg. 30% as large as Rhode Island.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2094849/T he-worlds-biggest-iceberg-19-mile-crack-continues- break-away-Antarctica.html
This is not for cracks or heaves caused by wave action
Wave action? earthquake activity? warmer water?
By which metric are you using to determine safety? Going by deaths/kwh nuclear is still one of the safest means of generating power.
The reactors are safe. Or rather, they are only as safe as the people managing and operating them. In both cases (Chernobyl and Fukishima), the main reason the reactors failed were due to human negligence.
Viewing: 51 - 101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 — Blog Index