My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Quoting Patrap:
Improving Dvorak Loop


..click image for loop

</a>


Actually, it seems weaker to me too after watching that loop....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting SPLbeater:


wow....im learning!!!!!this is rare lol
You learning is rare..?
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Sleet and snow fell in the TX hill country today, no accumulation

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Quoting WxGeekVA:






LOLOLOL
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Quoting yqt1001:


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.


wow....im learning!!!!!this is rare lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Improving Dvorak





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting RTSplayer:


Probably.

I thought so 3 or 4 frames ago, but that's just me.

I could be wrong, but day time heating should warm up the cloud tops quite a bit and knock it down a peg.


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.
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0200Z Image

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dry air is really starting to affect Giovanna's southern side. Dare I say the system has peaked?


KeyWestSun had that dry air intrusion possible on my blog earlier....

MIMIC-TPW show a slow of dry air comign on from west. Go have a look:)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dry air is really starting to affect Giovanna's southern side. Dare I say the system has peaked?


Probably.

I thought so 3 or 4 frames ago, but that's just me.

I could be wrong, but day time heating should warm up the cloud tops quite a bit and knock it down a peg.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Pat,sunrise is now there.
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Dry air is really starting to affect Giovanna's southern side. Dare I say the system has peaked?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
I don't like the 10 minute sustained RTS. 1 minute is enough to blow a trailer full o people over...lol.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
they updated forward motions to 18mph, which is a good thing.

50% faster movement translates to 2/3rds the average max rainfall potential.


Bad thing is that, if it's sunrise right now, then that puts it landfalling sometime near midnight.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting SPLbeater:
JTWC says 125 knots...0.o


Quoting RTSplayer:


Is that 1 minute or 10 minute? I forget.

gotta be 1 minute.

No way this is a 10 minute sustained at 125kts. That'd be um...


Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting SPLbeater:
JTWC says 125 knots...0.o


Is that 1 minute or 10 minute? I forget.

gotta be 1 minute.

No way this is a 10 minute sustained at 125kts. That'd be um...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting yqt1001:


Or strengthening, but in the end, does an extra 20kts in wind matter? In a nation like Madagascar, you are lucky to survive a TS let alone a category 5 cyclone. Actually, a TS is slightly more dangerous because of the heavy rain possibilities.


Sorry, I couldn't possibly think of a scenario where I'd prefer to get hit by a cat 5 instead of a TS.

Yes, 20 kts in wind matters, even if for no other reason than the fact the storm holds intensity much longer.

At the present intensity, additional 20kts would make a 36% increase in kinetic energy delivered per second.

That would be 160 sustained, which would be Andrew, which is clearly destroy most U.S. homes. So that's a big difference indeed.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
JTWC says 125 knots...0.o
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Quoting Ameister12:


Let's go for 5!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 AM FST February 13 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (991 hPa) located at 22.6S 177.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Overall organization remains same for the past 24 hours. Convection has not changed much in the last 3 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the south of an upper ridge. Good outflow to the south and
West but restricted elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly deep layer mean flow into an area of low shear. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.4 wrap, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and met=2.5. Final Dvorak based on Dvorak constraints for initial weakening, CI=3.0,

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.9S 176.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.3S 176.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..


Jasmine has managed to keep it for a long time together....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
750. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 13 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (991 hPa) located at 22.6S 177.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Overall organization remains same for the past 24 hours. Convection has not changed much in the last 3 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the south of an upper ridge. Good outflow to the south and
West but restricted elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly deep layer mean flow into an area of low shear. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.4 wrap, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and met=2.5. Final Dvorak based on Dvorak constraints for initial weakening, CI=3.0,

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.9S 176.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.3S 176.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting RTSplayer:
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.

The area it is going to hit is rather densely populated, and also mountainous. Intensity doesn't really matter in this scenario..
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Quoting RTSplayer:
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.


Or strengthening, but in the end, does an extra 20kts in wind matter? In a nation like Madagascar, you are lucky to survive a TS let alone a category 5 cyclone. Actually, a TS is slightly more dangerous because of the heavy rain possibilities.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.

Or plenty of strengthening, although that window would probably be lowered to 24 hours or so, because once the system's main area of convection starts moving ashore, it usually affects the storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
744. xcool


CFS shear forecast


not good alll...
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0130 Z Image

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Well maybe not NEW, but within 6 hours lol
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FInally, a new SSMI microwave image..
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4939
Another port,,I think were there,or Im losing personal RAM maybe.

: )

www.nosybe.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Pat,do you know where is the cam that you posted earlier located?



Im still trying to determine,one HTML say Africa, the other Madagascar so Im trying to get the info straight.

Sunrise is in another Hour on Madagascar, so if we get first light there, its a good cam for impact.


************************************************* ***
/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Patrap:
We have a potentially Catastrophic Cyclone approaching a Populated area of 4-5 Million.


Its also some of the Highest and most dense Population as well.





Pat,do you know where is the cam that you posted earlier located?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That's not good...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16789
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Thinking about what washingtonian115 said about "Pulling an Irene."

Irene caused around 10 billion dollars in damage as a category 1/tropical storm. Imagine if it ended up hitting the east coast as a major hurricane like originally predicted. Yikes!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4939
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think its funny how when the eye is clear on a system, they give it like a 5.5 or 6.0....then high clouds come over most of it, and the numbers drop to 4.0 lol

easy, easy....


NOAA have 1 frame per minute imagery to track cloud motion more precisely.

What is posted publicly is one frame every 15 or 30 minutes.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

So...because it's passing over high SSTs, it won't make Category 5 intensity? That makes no sense...

Put a period after the 5. Makes sense then.
Jesse
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) It has already been through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (just finished it earlier actually) and there are no indications that it will go through one anytime soon.

2.) It currently has winds of 145 mph and is crossing over increasingly warm waters.



Wait and see right now. Southwest eyewall is looking really goofy at the moment on all graphics.

I would not want to be in that country right now.

It looks like forward speed isn't really going to increase until about a day after landfall.

At least it's moving 12mph already, but you never know.

We've seen this year a mere TS kill a lot of people, and it has happened before as well, so nobody should take this storm lightly, even if it was to weaken a bit.

I don't what they have for public shelters in the region, but those houses are definitely not safe for category 3 or 4 sustained winds.

Heck, if it was to landfall as category 2, they'd probably be safer standing OUTSIDE in the rain, instead of in their houses, as long as there aren't any trees around. At least then nothing can collapse on you.

Given their buildings' conditions, at cat 3 or 4, I don't know what they should do, besides hide under the bed and pray.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I worry about CIMSS's ADT sometimes...lol.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.0 4.5



The numbers will go back up in a minute when they get the center in the right position.


i think its funny how when the eye is clear on a system, they give it like a 5.5 or 6.0....then high clouds come over most of it, and the numbers drop to 4.0 lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
f*** you Giovanna!!!.I was hoping she'll pull a Irene on us...Dammit!!.


easy, easy....
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727. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Bingiza mentioned in the latest advisory, not as strong a Giovanna though.
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725. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (937 hPa) located at 18.2S 54.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 175 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.6S 51.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.0S 48.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.4S 43.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.1S 39.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna intensified over the last 6 hours with satellite presentation at 6.5 for a few hours. 6 hourly and 3 hourly averaged DT are both at 6.2 and the presentation is slightly deteriorated since 2330z. Current estimation of both mean sea level pressure and vortex max are in excellent agreement with the good AMSU (n19) intensity estimate of 2151z with a mean sea level pressure at 938 hPa and max wind at 113 kt (1 min mean) Latest radar imagery suggest that a new eyewall replacement cycle is occurring (to be confirmed with micorwave imagery)

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mi-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westwards to wast southwestwards track today and then southwestwards Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.

Later this afternoon, Giovanna should undergo stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow ... However it is likely that some weakening could occur before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

1 year day to day after the landfall of TC Bingiza over the Masaola area, the eastern coast of Madagascar will experience a new cyclone!! The expected landfall remains located between Fenerive northward to Mahanoro southward including the city of Tamatave. It is worth noting that the latest ECMWF outputs within the last 36 hours target the area between Tamatave and Vatomandry.

Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly today within the potential landfall area. All inhabitants are invited to closely follow the closing of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a rather favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. However Thursday and Friday and according to ocean heat content map from the Colorado university, the system could encounter rather limited heat potential waters south of 22S and west of 40E. Moreover the system is expected to move little by that time (new barometric col situation). According to latest numerical guidance that suggest again some strengthening, the forecast intensity is more aggressive than previously.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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4:27am Monday (EAT) - Time in Madagascar

plus 8-12 Hours before the eye crosses the Coast, so Half the Storm will be onshore come nightfall..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Latest update is 145 mph...Only 15 mph to go. Will it make it? I think it's a slight possibility.



I think Giovanna has a good chance. It's already got that look to it, it's almost completely wrapped up and it has a good environment for more strengthening. The only problem is that it's getting very close the Madagascar.

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
then i doubt she will get to a 5 due to high ssts she wont weaken below cat 3 at landfall pretty dangerous situation

So...because it's passing over high SSTs, it won't make Category 5 intensity? That makes no sense...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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