My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Giovanna is 400plus-mile radius huge. It's gonna hit the two most important cities in Madagascar.
And it's not threatening the FirstWorld or its major suppliers : nobody's covering it.
The function of the news media is to generate advertising revenue.
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I'm not sure if it surprises me anymore, but no one is covering this storm. It's absolutely huge, but no one seems to be covering it at all. A lot of people are going to be affected by this thing and no one is covering it...
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Quoting MidnightLightning:
Looking bad for Madagascar. Much of the island has been severely deforested by the inhabitants for fuel-wood. Mudslides will be as bad there as in Haiti. Hopefully some significant weakening occurs, but given the annular nature of Giovanna, this is unlikely.
well fortunately for Madagascar, this storm is not annular. But regardless, Madagascar is in for a beating, thoughts go out to them.
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824 Patrap "I don't get the creeping willies too often anymore, but this Dawn Image brings to mind similar days in my past, and I'm sure others here as well.
One can feel the imminence in this shot.


That webcam is pointing NorthNorthWestward. HotelAndilanaBeach webcams
The sky appears even more ominous when looking SouthSouthEastward toward the resort...

...and more toward Giovanna; the center being a bit less than 400miles(644kilometres)SouthEastward
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!


According to RitaEvac, the world will end in 6 months. It will ALWAYS end in 6 months.

Unless a republican gets elected. Then it won't end until the democrats get re-elected. In 6 months.
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off to bed for me....NITE EVERYONE
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OH BOY the eye is shrinking in size....NOT A GOOD THING at all to see that.....we need an EYE WALL Replacement cycle to start occuring
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0500Z

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Quoting TampaSpin:



What dry air there was is getting pushed out very fast it appears....
Agreed.
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 915.7mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.8

Dvorak scale calls out for a 150 mph storm and raw Ts at borderline category 5.
Geez, hope the people realize the severity of the storm.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I laughed at this. Probably too hard.
Its o.k. Laughing is good for the soul.
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Gonna be a Cat5 before Landfall it appears...as its now going through a strengthning phase as the dry air is getting pumped out fast on the SW side....God help those people!
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Quoting Patrap:
0430Z IMAGE


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




What dry air there was is getting pushed out very fast it appears....
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Quoting hydrus:
Thats like a christian sayin what a great guy satan is.
I laughed at this. Probably too hard.
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0430Z Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!
Thats like a christian sayin what a great guy satan is.
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Singularity 2045 scenario
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Quoting RTSplayer:
794:

Heard about that a few years ago, but it was in early development.


they are trying to advance the 3-d printer technology to the point that the printer can print "most" of the components to a copy of itself. i.e. self-replication, or very nearly so.


Will it print me a Cadillac?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive?
I know! This guy is even more pessimistic than me! :/
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0430Z IMAGE


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!


It's raining in TX
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Report: Mysterious, black radioactive substance found 25km from Fukushima — Latest measurement over 95 µSv/h — Strong alpha emitter detected (PHOTOS)


Paraphrased translation provided by N.K., a concerned citizen in Japan

What follows is a summary of a series blog posts about mysterious radioactive black materials found in and around Minami-Soma City, Fukushima Prefecture, about 25km from the plant.

Black materials looking like sand or powder were found in the Haramachi-ku area of Minami-Soma City.

A similar substance was also found in nearby Soma City.

The materials can reportedly be found many place in Minami-Soma city and Soma city areas.

Here are several recent measurements:

Jan. 27: Measured values in Haramachi-ku using the Inspector +

901 cpm: gamma ray only, with WT Plate, 1cm above GND
13,380 cpm: gamma + beta + alpha, without WTP, 1cm above GND
10,330 cpm: gamma + beta + alpha, with XEROX paper, 1cm above GND

This means that XEROX paper cuts off 3,050 cpm alpha-ray, so the quite strong alpha-ray is radiated from the materials.

Feb. 4: The materials could not be found at Fukushima City, 60km from the plant. Only gamma-ray were strong.

Feb. 6: Normal sand in the area mainly contains Cs134 and Cs137

Gamma-ray: 959 cpm
Gamma + beta + alpha: 2,146 cpm

Feb. 6: Black material in sand

gamma-ray: 3,274 cpm
gamma + beta + alpha: 18,370 cpm

Radiation of the black materials were very strong when compared to the normal-colored sand. The materials have unbelievable beta + alpha.

Feb. 9: Piece of paper cuts shields 7,230 cpm

gamma + beta + alpha: 31,680 cpm, without the paper
gamma + beta + alpha: 24,450 cpm, with the paper

TERRA MKS-05 measures only gamma and beta-ray, XEROX paper did not make much difference

11.53 micro S/h: gamma-ray only, without paper
17.56 micro S/h: gamma + beta, without paper
16.98 micro S/h: gamma + beta, with paper


3,000Bq/kg from Japanese radish
Posted by Mochizuki on February 12th, 2012 · No Comments

Fukushima local government measured 3,000 Bq/Kg of cesium from dried Japanese radish produced in Fukushima.
They have already sold 102 bags of them (50g per bag) at 5 street shops, Fukushima prefecture requested Japan agricultural cooperatives to pick them up and stop distributing.
It was sold from 1/14 to 2/10. The shops are, Azuma, Kuroiwa, Shimizu, Omori, and Yanome.
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Good evening.
First and maybe the only touch of winter for many in Oklahoma tonight.

(wu regional radar removed)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Something very big will happen in America within the
next 180 days.

It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.

It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.



Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


What have you got so far?


A good plan and a Inland rally point.
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Mystery Disease In Central America Kills Thousands

CHICHIGALPA, Nicaragua -- Jesus Ignacio Flores started working when he was 16, laboring long hours on construction sites and in the fields of his country's biggest sugar plantation.

Three years ago his kidneys started to fail and flooded his body with toxins. He became too weak to work, wracked by cramps, headaches and vomiting.

On Jan. 19 he died on the porch of his house. He was 51. His withered body was dressed by his weeping wife, embraced a final time, then carried in the bed of a pickup truck to a grave on the edge of Chichigalpa, a town in Nicaragua's sugar-growing heartland, where studies have found more than one in four men showing symptoms of chronic kidney disease.

A mysterious epidemic is devastating the Pacific coast of Central America, killing more than 24,000 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua since 2000 and striking thousands of others with chronic kidney disease at rates unseen virtually anywhere else. Scientists say they have received reports of the phenomenon as far north as southern Mexico and as far south as Panama.

Last year it reached the point where El Salvador's health minister, Dr. Maria Isabel Rodriguez, appealed for international help, saying the epidemic was undermining health systems.

Wilfredo Ordonez, who has harvested corn, sesame and rice for more than 30 years in the Bajo Lempa region of El Salvador, was hit by the chronic disease when he was 38. Ten years later, he depends on dialysis treatments he administers to himself four times a day.

"This is a disease that comes with no warning, and when they find it, it's too late," Ordonez said as he lay on a hammock on his porch.

Many of the victims were manual laborers or worked in sugar cane fields that cover much of the coastal lowlands. Patients, local doctors and activists say they believe the culprit lurks among the agricultural chemicals workers have used for years with virtually none of the protections required in more developed countries. But a growing body of evidence supports a more complicated and counterintuitive hypothesis.

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Quoting Patrap:


Being prepared for any Weather event, Apocalypse, Trial verdict, Hockey Loss, College Title Win, one needs a plan and supplies.

Calamity never favors the unprepared.


What have you got so far?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm seriously thinking bout stocking up and buying MREs while supplies last


Being prepared for any Weather event, Apocalypse, Trial verdict, Hockey Loss, College Title Win, one needs a plan and supplies.

Calamity never favors the unprepared.
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Quoting Patrap:


Awaken tonight


I'm seriously thinking bout stocking up and buying MREs while supplies last

crisis3.com
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Something very big will happen in America within the
next 180 days.

It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.

It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.



Awaken tonight
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting KoritheMan:

Technically, these "disasters" wouldn't be such at all were it not for human invasion. Hurricanes are nature's way of moving heat from the tropics to the polar regions. Damage and deaths notwithstanding, we need hurricanes; the very physics of our universe demands it. If humans never existed, neither would these events, insofar as there would be no negative consequence to them.

Of course, that's asking too much as we need to inhabit to survive. Nature, however, doesn't care, and will continue to give us the middle finger the rest of our existence.
Indeed. I heard one met describe them as" necessary evils".
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Quoting yqt1001:


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.
Well you and SPLbeater are both correct. Over the ocean, there are two pressure maximums and minimums, making it a semidiurnal (two cycles in one day) process.

Solar heating during the day causes the air column (particularly above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) where the low level atmosphere experiences little warming due to the stable ocean temperature) to expand, causing surface pressures to drop. During the night time, the air above the PBL cools, while the low level atmosphere below the PBL remains warm due to the ocean's fairly constant temperature (over the course of a day...obviously it can vary a bit throughout the year). As the low level atmosphere becomes increasingly warm relative to the mid level atmosphere (mid level cools due to the absence of solar heating, low level stays warm from conduction with the Ocean), it becomes lighter and begins to rise, again lowering pressures.

However, keep in mind, the convective cycle is diurnal. It has a peak around sunrise and a low around sunset. Therefore, tropical systems experience the most strengthening/intensifying during the nighttime as the convective cycle heads toward it's maximum around sunrise.
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One can refresh this image during the Storm till power goes down.

Webcam



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Something very big will happen in America within the
next 180 days.

It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.

It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting Patrap:
I dont get the creeping willies to often anymore,but this Dawn Image brings to mind similar days in my past, and I'm sure others here as well.

One can feel the imminence in this shot.



/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.

Not quite a rainband, but an outflow boundary for sure.
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Quoting MidnightLightning:


Obviously, but with Cat 3 sustained winds, damage to all vegetation will be severe, thus exacerbating mudslides by removing more vegetation that could potentially anchor the soil. Madagascar had another major cyclone several years back (Ivan). A buddy of mine was doing his PhD work over there. Damage was catastrophic. Madagascar is probably one of the two worst places in the world for mudslides (the other is probably Haiti). Both are mountainous, and both have been stripped of vegetation by inhabitants looking for fuel-wood.
Fair enough.
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If anybody is having trouble reading satellite maps due to reversed high and low rotations in the S. hemisphere, you can just try this simple trick. Maybe you thought of it first.


Just copy the picture and "flip" it vertically in a paint program.

the land masses will look goofy, but you'll be able to read troughs and ridges easily, since it will look just like the N. Hemisphere.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
I dont get the creeping willies to often anymore,but this Dawn Image brings to mind similar days in my past, and I'm sure others here as well.

One can feel the imminence in this shot.



/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.

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Quoting hydrus:
And Madagascar has had its share quite recently...And in the same area...Wiki...Cyclone Ivan was a powerful tropical cyclone that struck Madagascar in February 2008. Forming from a persistent area of convection on February 7, Ivan initially tracked southeastward, before looping to the west-southwest. Encountering favourable conditions, it strengthened to attain peak winds on February 17 before striking northeastern Madagascar. It degenerated into a remnant low pressure area as it crossed the island, and briefly re-organized into a weak tropical depression before dissipating on February 22.

Ivan caused heavy damage in Madagascar, leaving severe flooding and wind damage. In Sainte Marie Island, the worst hit area, 90% of the infastructure was destroyed, and 70% of the structures were destroyed. On mainland Madegascar, over 400,000 acres (1,600 km2) of cultivated crops were destroyed, leaving hundreds of families without food. In addition, severe flooding and high winds in Toamasina left the entire city without electricity or drinkable water. In all, over 330,000 people were left homeless, and the storm caused 93 deaths.Cyclone Ivan moved ashore on Madagascar near the city of Toamasina on February 17, producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h).[19] According to local news agencies, Sainte Marie island off the coast of Madagascar was the highest affected area, with 9 people killed and 90 % of the island's infrastructure destroyed, including a hotel which collapsed.[20] On the island, all flights were suspended or canceled during the storm, and most areas were left without electric power.[20] Also, 75 percent of the structures on the island were completely destroyed.[21]

On mainland Madagascar, 100,000 acres (400 km2) of rice crops were destroyed, and 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of other cultivated crops were destroyed.[22] Because of this, many families had little or no food to eat.[22] In Analanjirofo, the worst hit region on the mainland Madagascar, 80,000 people were left homeless, and most of the schools, houses and other structures were lost as a result of the flooding and high wind.[22] Another major aspect of the damage there was the Antaratasy bridge, a connector between the region of Atsinanana and cities to the north, which was completely destroyed, isolating several people from their families.[23] Its collapse, in addition to the extensive damage to communications, made it difficult or impossible to contact people who may have been affected by Ivan.[23]

In the city of Toamasina, all water and electricity were cut off as a result of the storm.[23] High winds downed trees and power lines, and rising flood waters were the focus of concern.[23] In the city and surrounding areas, 31 cases of cholera were reported along the Zambeze river valley as a result of the storm.[24]

In the region of Alaotra Mangoro Region, almost 23,000 people were in need of assistance, and flooding caused extensive damage.[25] In the Analamanga Region, 18,000 people were reported to be left without shelter, and in the Atsinanana Region, up to 13,000 people were left homeless.[25] In total, 190,000 people were homeless as a result of the cyclone[26] and a total of 93 fatalities occurred.[27]
Technically, these "disasters" wouldn't be such at all were it not for human invasion. Hurricanes are nature's way of moving heat from the tropics to the polar regions. Damage and deaths notwithstanding, we need hurricanes; the very physics of our universe demands it. If humans never existed, neither would these events, insofar as there would be no negative consequence to them.

Of course, that's asking too much as we need to inhabit to survive. Nature, however, doesn't care, and will continue to give us the middle finger the rest of our existence.
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Tropicsweatherpr "Pat,do you know where is the cam that you posted earlier located?"
738 Patrap "Im still trying to determine,one HTML say Africa, the other Madagascar so Im trying to get the info straight"

Hotel Adrialana Beach located on Nosy Be Island (NOS) off the northwest coast of Madagascar that Xyrus2000 linked to earlier.

The red line between the two unlabeled dots connects Giovanna's latest two center positions as reported by the JointTyphoonWarningCenter.
TMM is Toamasina. And TNR is Antananarivo.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres).
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Thanks for that kori.

We always need support for helping others.

Its how its done, people helping people.

Portlight awarded Reeve Foundation Quality of Life Grant









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Quoting KoritheMan:

It doesn't take a major hurricane to produce flash flooding.


Obviously, but with Cat 3 sustained winds, damage to all vegetation will be severe, thus exacerbating mudslides by removing more vegetation that could potentially anchor the soil. Madagascar had another major cyclone several years back (Ivan). A buddy of mine was doing his PhD work over there. Damage was catastrophic. Madagascar is probably one of the two worst places in the world for mudslides (the other is probably Haiti). Both are mountainous, and both have been stripped of vegetation by inhabitants looking for fuel-wood.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.