My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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170. Skyepony (Mod)
AF306 got HDOB too..Highest wind at flight level was 93kt!
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Quoting Skyepony:
AF306 got a little exercise in the GOM this afternoon tasting the trough..

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 27.5N 84.8W (View map)
Location: 147 miles (236 km) to the WSW (257°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1019mb (30.09 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 16.5°C (61.7°F) 360° (from the N) 4 knots (5 mph)
1000mb 159m (522 ft) 17.6°C (63.7°F) 15.7°C (60.3°F) 340° (from the NNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
925mb 822m (2,697 ft) 13.8°C (56.8°F) 13.5°C (56.3°F) 230° (from the SW) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 1,532m (5,026 ft) 10.8°C (51.4°F) 8.1°C (46.6°F) 225° (from the SW) 14 knots (16 mph)
700mb 3,136m (10,289 ft) 3.4°C (38.1°F) 2.4°C (36.3°F) 235° (from the SW) 29 knots (33 mph)
500mb 5,790m (18,996 ft) -11.5°C (11.3°F) Approximately -20°C (-4°F) 260° (from the W) 58 knots (67 mph)
Hmmm that should be moving over us later tonight.
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I'm surprised there's only a 70% pop in my area tonight....
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167. Skyepony (Mod)
AF306 got a little exercise in the GOM this afternoon tasting the trough..

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 27.5N 84.8W (View map)
Location: 147 miles (236 km) to the WSW (257°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1019mb (30.09 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 16.5°C (61.7°F) 360° (from the N) 4 knots (5 mph)
1000mb 159m (522 ft) 17.6°C (63.7°F) 15.7°C (60.3°F) 340° (from the NNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
925mb 822m (2,697 ft) 13.8°C (56.8°F) 13.5°C (56.3°F) 230° (from the SW) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 1,532m (5,026 ft) 10.8°C (51.4°F) 8.1°C (46.6°F) 225° (from the SW) 14 knots (16 mph)
700mb 3,136m (10,289 ft) 3.4°C (38.1°F) 2.4°C (36.3°F) 235° (from the SW) 29 knots (33 mph)
500mb 5,790m (18,996 ft) -11.5°C (11.3°F) Approximately -20°C (-4°F) 260° (from the W) 58 knots (67 mph)
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The growing convective area in the central gulf (dark orange) is going to be the troublemaker overnight.




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Quoting SPLbeater:


ah, okay..wasnt looking at that =P

i had dominos for dinner :D

I'm hoping you mean Domino's Pizza.
If you don't, please call an ambulance.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5633
Quoting SPLbeater:
i had dominos for dinner :D
Oh, yeah? Me, too, and now the 5-2 and a double trey are stuck in my throat. Next time I may try cooking them first...
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161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 11 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (939 hPa) located at 16.8S 60.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 115 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.8S 59.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 18.4S 57.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 17.6S 53.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.0S 49.2E - 25 knots (DEPRESSION sur Terre)

Additional Information
=====================

Last available infrared satellite pictures depict a weakening of the system with a warming of the clouds tops and a the cooling of the eye.

System is tracking southwestward to west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the high subtropical ridge (400hpa) situated in the southeast. System should slow down during the next 24 hours as it will approach from the barometric col in its south, and after 24 hours, it should curve westward with the rebuilding of the deep high pressure cell south-east of Madagascar.

On this track, environmental conditions remain very favorable during the next 18 to 24 hours, thanks to a good poleward outflow channel. On Sunday, system should lose this outflow channel. On and after Monday, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. So system is expected to weaken before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar, at the end of night between Monday and Tuesday.The residual center should come back over seas in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday within a favorable environment.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44859
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Link

Go back through the previous images on this water vapor page and you can see the dry air get pulled in from the southeast and into the core of the storm.


ah, okay..wasnt looking at that =P

i had dominos for dinner :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:


MIMIC-TPW from CIMSS shows no dry air threatening the system, so....

Wind shear low and decreasing so it cant be that:D


Link

Go back through the previous images on this water vapor page and you can see the dry air get pulled in from the southeast and into the core of the storm.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
13:00 PM NZDT February 11 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (970 hPa) located at 26.3S 175.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 Nm from the center in the western quadrant
120 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44859
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Seems like Giovanna has ingested some dry air from her southeast side....



Once she mixes it out she should resume strengthening...


MIMIC-TPW from CIMSS shows no dry air threatening the system, so....

Wind shear low and decreasing so it cant be that:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Seems like Giovanna has ingested some dry air from her southeast side....



Once she mixes it out she should resume strengthening...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Winter's not done for us Ohioans yet. :)
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Meanwhile in Abruzzo, Italy...


Link.
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Quoting yqt1001:
After waiting 3 whole hours for a new satellite image of Giovanna, she(?) isn't looking so pretty anymore.



They eye filled in, convection weakened and got more ragged.

The image 3 hours ago was this:



Watch this storm making it to cat 5. It has a long time before impacting land
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have you seen the forecast or are you joking, hard to tell over the net.


yeah ive seen the local NWS forecast for atlanta, im serious. It might snow in the higher peaks in the very north east corner of the state, but not in atlanta. the forecast for washington from the same event has it raining there, and for the mountains of southern n.c.
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570

Today’s question is

Hello Mochizuki San, In your next video, could you say how much of Japan you think should be evacuated? Is the Western part of Honshu ok? What about the other islands? Thanks, – anonymous

How many people should evacuate Japan ?
Posted by Mochizuki on February 10th, 2012 ·
I always thought Japanese government should have bought a part of Australia or Canada just after 311, and sent all the Japanese people to there. I know I’m sounding unrealistic but the situation is unrealistic.
but they didn’t.
It’s just human to think western Japan is safe outside of Fukushima is safe. It’s just an imaginary boarder of human, has nothing to do with radiation. Radiation doesn’t think, oh I’m getting out of Fukushima, shall stop here or should I get to Tokyo by Train or car.
Look at the world map. Japan is such a tiny island. Everywhere is the same. and now they’re distributing the radioactive debris to all over Japan, to share the “pain”, which is so typical for Japanese, and all the food is contaminated. Cars, people, train, they are all contaminated and move around in Japan. There is no safe place in Japan. That’s why I got out of there.
There are 4 main islands, Honshu, Hokkaiso, Shikoku, and Kyushu. but they are so close that you can even drive by car. They are all the same.
Mr. Koide from Kyoto university said, old people have to eat contaminated food because they have responsibility for nuclear, and it’s the responsibility of future generation to accept radiation.
I dare to say no. I won’t accept anything except for completely 0Bq/kg. I have no reason to eat radiation. I completely refuse to be involved in their fantasy world like Kamikaze. I really think all of them should leave Japan soon as possible.

well, I didn’t receive any more questions for today. and not so many people donate anymore. a bit sad, but maybe shoganai. if you have any question, please send me by comment or anything. Thank you for watching this.




Iori Mochizuki
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150. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TPXS10 PGTW 102141
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
B. 10/1900Z
C. 16.3S
D. 60.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OFF WHITE EYE WITH SURROUNDING RING WHITE PLUS A PARTIAL BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5 DUE TO THE 24HR FT YIELDING A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 6.5 WITH HATCHED PARTS OF THE PATTERN BEING WHITE OR COLDER. CONVECTION IS DEEP WITH A COLD DARK GREY RING MEASURING 20NM AROUND THE STORM. CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44859
149. DougL
Easy there Doc, some of your loyal followers are Buckeyes
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Death-toll from European deep freeze hits 460 as Danube freezes over
Posted on February 10, 2012

February 10, 2012 – GERMANY – Thick ice closed vast swathes of the Danube on Thursday, crippling shipping on Europe’s busiest waterway, as the death toll from bitter cold across the continent rose to at least 460. As it has every day for nearly two weeks, the brutal cold claimed lives in several countries and killed dozens more in weather-related accidents. The 2,860-kilometre (1,780-mile) Danube, which flows through 10 countries and is vital for transport, power, irrigation, industry and fishing, was wholly or partially blocked from Austria to its mouth on the Black Sea. Navigation was impossible or restricted in Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria, as ice covered the river or formed dangerous floes in shipping lanes. An official from the Serbian economy ministry said the commercial repercussions “could be very bad,” while infrastructure ministry official Pavle Galico said shipping would not resume for 10 days. Bulgarian authorities, who have banned all navigation on the river, reported 224 vessels stuck in ports, and Ukrainian rescuers in Croatia reached three crew members on a ship trapped in the ice since Friday. Temperatures in Bulgaria dropped to a new record low Thursday of minus 28.6 degrees Celsius (minus 19.5 Fahrenheit) in the northwestern town of Vidin. The country has halted all power exports due to the cold snap. So far, 28 people have been killed in Bulgaria as a result of the weather, including eight who drowned when the icy waters of a small dam swept through their village of Biser in the southeast. Serbian railways, meanwhile, said the famed Balkan Express train that runs from Belgrade to Istanbul would only go as far as Sofia for now because of the flooding in Bulgaria. –Yahoo News
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Can't ever have enough "Calvin and Hobbs"!
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New radar imaging system shows how earthquakes warp a landscape
Posted on February 10, 2012


February 10, 2012 – BAJA, California – A team of geologists from the U.S., Mexico and China are using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) laser altimetry to study how an earthquake can change a landscape. In particular, the geologists want to know more about the magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck April 4, 2010, near Mexicali in northern Mexico. Airborne LiDAR equipment, which bounces a stream of laser pulses off the ground, can measure surface features to within a few centimeters. The researchers were able to make a detailed scan of the affected area over about 360 square kilometers in less than three days, they report in the February 10 issue of the journal Science. In the above image, blue shows where ground surface moved down whereas red indicates upward movement compared with the previous survey. Some changes brought about by the quake are readily visible from the ground, such as a 1.5-meter clifflike ridge created when part of a hillside abruptly moved up and sideways. But the LiDAR survey also revealed some features that could not easily be detected otherwise, Oskin reports, such as a warping of the ground surface above the Indiviso Fault, which runs beneath agricultural fields along the Colorado River floodplain. The 2010 Mexicali earthquake did not occur on a major fault, such as the San Andreas, but rather ran through a series of smaller fractures in Earth’s crust. The new LiDAR survey shows how seven of these small faults came together to cause a major quake. –Scientific American
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Markets retreat on news of downgrade of 34 Italian banks
Posted on February 10, 2012


February 10, 2012 – ITALY – Stocks added to losses Friday, on track to logging their worst session this year, after stalled debt negotiations in Greece, some disappointing economic news and reports that S&P downgraded a handful of Italian banks. In the latest round of disappointment from the euro zone, ratings agency S&P downgraded 34 of 37 Italian banks, citing worries over the banking industry and economic risks in the country. Euro zone finance ministers said the debt-ridden nation will need to make further cuts in order to be granted bailout funds. Meanwhile, Greek workers went on strike, protesting against the austerity measures. Meanwhile, Greece’s Deputy Foreign Minister Marilisa Xenogiannakopoulou, a member of the socialist party, resigned in protest against the tough bailout terms, according to the state television. Adding to woes, Chinese January trade data fell the most since the depths of the financial crisis, signaling further demand decline. –CNBC

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Southeast shift of the snow over DC and Baltimore in the 18Z NAM run!!! 1-2 inches now forecasted!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Good evening folks. Albeit a small chance, any fireworks this evening would fall in the light blue areas. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)

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From the Weather Channel. Snow in the Northeast:

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It's a night of a ton of light-moderate rain ahead... What do you think about the severe threat? I don't think the dynamics look that great for us atm.


I don't think we have to worry about severe weather much, even if very strong cells develop dynamics look pretty meager and any heavier convection will likely be elevated. The result would be mainly only heavy rain and lighting with some gusty winds.


However, PWAT's are quite high and will rise more into the night, that combined with good ascent from the jet streak and convergence from the developing surface low could certainly warrant a good shot at pretty heavy down pours in some spots. That being said don't get thinking its just going to be a light rain event only. I do expect some heavy down pours to be around, but I don't expect any accumulation to be too impressive due to the fast progression of the system.
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139. mati
I have an Ohio Buckeye tree growing in North Bay Ontario Canada. It has survived now over 5 years and has even flowered, tho it remains a bush rather than a tree...
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Quoting nymore:
love Calvin and Hobbes. That comic strip has to be at least what 16 or 17 years old or more.


yes it is. I was rereading my old books and that one "just" had to be put up here. :)
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Quoting 1911maker:
I hope I an not violating any rules by putting this up, but it seems to fit this winter, as well as some of the topics on the blog............

img src=" Photobucket

">
love Calvin and Hobbes. That comic strip has to be at least what 16 or 17 years old or more.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have you seen the forecast or are you joking, hard to tell over the net.


GFS says 0.21 inches of snow, changing to rain for a few hours. so maybe some falling, but no accumilations :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
So far, the 2012 Severe Weather Season has had 99 Tornadoes that have occured in the U.S. Let's see how active will be the Severe Season this year with those GOM sst's warm that could serve as fuel.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
Quoting yqt1001:
After waiting 3 whole hours for a new satellite image of Giovanna, she(?) isn't looking so pretty anymore.



They eye filled in, convection weakened and got more ragged.

The image 3 hours ago was this:


I agree, but it's still very strong.
(Giovanna a few hours ago)

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I hope I an not violating any rules by putting this up, but it seems to fit this winter, as well as some of the topics on the blog............

img src=" Photobucket

">
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Wow! Giovanna turned into a really intense cyclone. This could be a huge problem for Madagascar.

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Quoting Jedkins01:
Impressive jet streak in the gulf with associated convection. Forecast rain chances are too low if you live in Central Florida. I would have them at 90% tonight with higher QPF on the west side of Florida.
It's a night of a ton of light-moderate rain ahead... What do you think about the severe threat? I don't think the dynamics look that great for us atm.
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL yes, same here, every pick/up day the city gets maybe 9 huge bags of leaves, i'll be glad when the tree's are done dropping
In my 52 years of living in SW Florida, Live Oak trees have dropped their leaves like clockwork every February. Laurel Oaks tend to drop their leaves a little earlier. FYI
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Post (in) haste...


Then change it Post Haste! LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


You mean it is going to be 14 in Miami????
Post (in) haste...
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Quoting MTWX:

Thats departure from average there old man. LOL



OLD?? I know I am just trying to get Nea to reword his entry. :)
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After waiting 3 whole hours for a new satellite image of Giovanna, she(?) isn't looking so pretty anymore.



They eye filled in, convection weakened and got more ragged.

The image 3 hours ago was this:

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Impressive jet streak in the gulf with associated convection. Forecast rain chances are too low if you live in Central Florida. I would have them at 90% tonight with higher QPF on the west side of Florida.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
You should see my front yard, you would think it's fall outside. Big Oak tree shedding its leaves making a mess out of it and the cars and on top of that I have bad allergies.
LOL yes, same here, every pick/up day the city gets maybe 9 huge bags of leaves, i'll be glad when the tree's are done dropping
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123. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:


You mean it is going to be 14 in Miami????

Thats departure from average there old man. LOL
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Quoting MTWX:

LOL!! Fortunately for me, my Azaleas are not blooming yet, but my tulips and daffodils are just about to. Had this happen a few years back... All my flowers were in full bloom in March, then out of nowhere we had a snow storm that killed all of them back for the year. :(
my azaleas are just now starting to bloom, beautiful flowers they are
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Quoting Neapolitan:
At least it won't last long; highs in North Florida are expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 by mid-week. In fact, most of the country is expected to be back to the abnormally warm pattern we've become used to by then; here, for instance, are the expected lows for the contiguous U.S. for Tuesday from HAMweather:

Uh-oh


You mean it is going to be 14 in Miami????
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


But it's still the DGEX....
Does this model seem to hype these events? I'm not sure.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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