My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 220 - 170

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Quoting Patrap:
Looks Like Trouble there Aussie.

This is part of what we got....

VIDEO: Dark storm brews over Sydney
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thank you for being specific...2004 or 2010?
Thought it was obvious from the context. The former.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Do one for Matthew.

Thank you for being specific...2004 or 2010?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Jeanne satellite loop:

Do one for Matthew.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Jeanne satellite loop:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well people around here getting excited for snow.I'm continuing to just laugh at them.It's just funny.


i know right!!!! im in arlington, they put out salt for that big snow storm 3 days ago (that never happened, it just rained) more of the same this time, probably more snow this time, but no accumalation, it has to snow at a rate of an inch an hour for about 2 hours for it to stick around here at this point in the year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well goodnight, all be back in morning with blog on Giovanna!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No thunderstorms in the forecast, we gotta wait a few more weeks.

Local meteorologist is saying that we may have just enough energy tomorrow night for a few snow showers. I'd like to see that, especially since wind gusts will be blowing over 40 mph at the time. Blowing snow. :D


man...i would trade the snow for a thunderstorm.

the kids down the street would hate me if i could actually do that. lol. cuz i would :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening All. Feel special having birds in the air.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 110118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

.UPDATE...THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE OF 1870 J/KG...AND
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 KT. SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE NE GULF.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST
NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW TSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE HIGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, MODEST INSTABILITY AND GOOD WIND SHEAR. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER, ACARS AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE WINDS ALREADY ARE
VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, LESSENING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE. STILL, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER PALM BEACH,
BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES NOW. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG.
THIS POTENTIAL COULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY. MAIN
RISK WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
/GREGORIA


Awesome, will be good to see a thunderstorm around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


the GFS has decided to give me 0.14 in of snow on the 14th again. lol.

You can have it if you give me a thunderstorm xD

No thunderstorms in the forecast, we gotta wait a few more weeks.

Local meteorologist is saying that we may have just enough energy tomorrow night for a few snow showers. I'd like to see that, especially since wind gusts will be blowing over 40 mph at the time. Blowing snow. :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doubt it. Check TCHP values ahead of the storm.
Either way, Madagascar is in for a major hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting SPLbeater:

You can have it if you give me a thunderstorm xD
Just a thunderstorm? Not a severe one?

How dreadfully boring. :|
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
In all likelihood, Giovanna will probably weaken a bit before landfall. Most tropical cyclones do.

Doubt it. Check TCHP values ahead of the storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

But not for several days. The EWRC will only take less than 48 hours.


the GFS has decided to give me 0.14 in of snow on the 14th again. lol.

You can have it if you give me a thunderstorm xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
In all likelihood, Giovanna will probably weaken a bit before landfall. Most tropical cyclones do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Damn, that is beautiful. When it has its mega eye after the EWRC, it is going to be amazing.



Unfortunately, this drooling will have to go away soon as it is going to make landfall.

But not for several days. The EWRC will only take less than 48 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Damn, that is beautiful. When it has its mega eye after the EWRC, it is going to be amazing.



Unfortunately, this drooling will have to go away soon as it is going to make landfall.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Considering that "groundbreaking" reports of this type are almost a dime a dozen, I'm sure many scientists will be interested to analyze it.
Yeah, I can practically see climatologists lined up around the block to read yet another denialist tome written by yet another pair of denialists.

Meanwhile, the CO2 builds, the mercury rises, and ice melts, and mankind inches ever closer to the brink...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:

That’s what Germany’s leading daily Bild (see photo) wrote in its print and online editions today, on the very day that renowned publisher Hoffmann & Campe officially released a skeptic book – one written by a prominent socialist and environmental figure.

This is huge. More than I ever could have possibly imagined. And more is coming in the days ahead!
Conclusion: climate catastrophe is called off.


Considering that "groundbreaking" reports of this type are almost a dime a dozen, I'm sure many scientists will be interested to analyze it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Evening All. Feel special having birds in the air.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 110118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

.UPDATE...THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE OF 1870 J/KG...AND
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 KT. SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE NE GULF.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST
NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW TSTORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE HIGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, MODEST INSTABILITY AND GOOD WIND SHEAR. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER, ACARS AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE WINDS ALREADY ARE
VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, LESSENING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE. STILL, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER PALM BEACH,
BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES NOW. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG.
THIS POTENTIAL COULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY. MAIN
RISK WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
/GREGORIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think this basically screams Eyewall Replacement Cycle?


Indubitably!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think this basically screams Eyewall Replacement Cycle?



Do you think it will 1) have a bigger eye 2) develop a pinhole again 3) be disrupted by dry air
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think this basically screams Eyewall Replacement Cycle?


That's certainly an EWRC. It makes sense.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5075
Quoting AussieStorm:




ya it not much, some outflow and low clouds. xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Looks Like Trouble there Aussie.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting SPLbeater:
I feel like our little friend Jasmine is being ignored.

Pay some attention to the weakening system before she says goodbye lol :D


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


Not even completely out and already looks good

Oh and uh, that little thing underneath Indonesia, is Invest 99S :D


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think this basically screams Eyewall Replacement Cycle?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Here come the severe storms again.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I feel like our little friend Jasmine is being ignored.

Pay some attention to the weakening system before she says goodbye lol :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
OMG...

Heat content at 48 hours compared to now...

Any shear forecasted?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Giovanna looks good! It does have a little bit of dry air it needs to work out, but it's still a dangerous looking storm.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5075
SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) GIOVANNA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)/LOOP

..click image for Loop

ZOOM is available

( First Viz is processing )









Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093


Not even completely out and already looks good

Oh and uh, that little thing underneath Indonesia, is Invest 99S :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
o.0 120 knots sustained on Giovanna, cat 4 just 30 hours after developing
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm hoping you mean Domino's Pizza.
If you don't, please call an ambulance.


LOL...i do have a set of 28 dominos i play with every once n awhile...but this was PIZZA, AND IT WAS DEEELICIOUS!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
179. Skyepony (Mod)
Nature (online February 8, 2012); doi: 10.1038/nature10847

Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise
Thomas Jacob, John Wahr, W. Tad Pfeffer and Sean Swenson



Abstract


Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors to present-day global mean sea level rise1, 2, 3, 4. Most previous global mass balance estimates for GICs rely on extrapolation of sparse mass balance measurements1, 2, 4 representing only a small fraction of the GIC area, leaving their overall contribution to sea level rise unclear. Here we show that GICs, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 ± 30 Gt yr−1 from January 2003 to December 2010, contributing 0.41 ± 0.08 mm yr−1 to sea level rise. Our results are based on a global, simultaneous inversion of monthly GRACE-derived satellite gravity fields, from which we calculate the mass change over all ice-covered regions greater in area than 100 km2. The GIC rate for 2003–2010 is about 30% smaller than the previous mass balance estimate that most closely matches our study period2. The high mountains of Asia, in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr−1 for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr−1 in previously published estimates2, 5. For completeness, we also estimate that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, including their peripheral GICs, contributed 1.06 ± 0.19 mm yr−1 to sea level rise over the same time period. The total contribution to sea level rise from all ice-covered regions is thus 1.48 ± 0.26 mm −1, which agrees well with independent estimates of sea level rise originating from land ice loss and other terrestrial sources6.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
Markets retreat on news of downgrade of 34 Italian banks
Posted on February 10, 2012


February 10, 2012 – ITALY – Stocks added to losses Friday, on track to logging their worst session this year, after stalled debt negotiations in Greece, some disappointing economic news and reports that S&P downgraded a handful of Italian banks. In the latest round of disappointment from the euro zone, ratings agency S&P downgraded 34 of 37 Italian banks, citing worries over the banking industry and economic risks in the country. Euro zone finance ministers said the debt-ridden nation will need to make further cuts in order to be granted bailout funds. Meanwhile, Greek workers went on strike, protesting against the austerity measures. Meanwhile, Greece’s Deputy Foreign Minister Marilisa Xenogiannakopoulou, a member of the socialist party, resigned in protest against the tough bailout terms, according to the state television. Adding to woes, Chinese January trade data fell the most since the depths of the financial crisis, signaling further demand decline. –CNBC



Interesting comments there.

Don't know how true it is, but rumor has it anti-semitism is on the rise in Germany again lately as well.

I never have been a fan of the whole "Regime change" mentality. Removing a few top leaders in a rogue nation doesn't excuse all the evil people who were "just following orders," and racial prejudices as strong as those intertwined in Nazi-ism typically take many generations to be removed from a civilizaton.

Just look at the U.S. we still have racial problems 150 years after the civil war. If anything, we even have a strong Nazi movement here in the U.S., especially among the gangs and prison population. In a certain sense, it's an invasion.

We don't get much balanced news in the U.S. regarding what is actually taking place in foreign politics and finance to REALLY understand the motives of all the players.

Perhaps its because our own politicians and media spend more time fighting with one another, instead of doing their jobs.

The idea that Germany might be attempting some sort of hostile takeover of nearby nation through manipulating the banking is very worrisome, and certainly hasn't gained any attention in the U.S. media to my knowledge.

I'd be interested to hear Obama, Hillary Clinton, or our press secretary comment on these developments and allegations. A senator, somebody.


Sorry if this is offensive post, but I don't trust the Germans. That's not racism. That's dog with a bad history on a leash.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Well people around here getting excited for snow.I'm continuing to just laugh at them.It's just funny.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487

That’s what Germany’s leading daily Bild (see photo) wrote in its print and online editions today, on the very day that renowned publisher Hoffmann & Campe officially released a skeptic book – one written by a prominent socialist and environmental figure.

This is huge. More than I ever could have possibly imagined. And more is coming in the days ahead! The Bild piece was just the first of a series.

Mark this as the date that Germany’s global warming movement took a massive body blow.

Today, not one, but two of Germany’s most widely read news media published comprehensive skeptical climate science articles in their print and online editions, coinciding with the release of a major climate skeptical book, Die kalte Sonne (The Cold Sun)...

What has set it all off? One of the fathers of Germany’s modern green movement, Professor Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt, a social democrat and green activist, decided to author a climate science skeptical book together with geologist/paleontologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning. Vahrenholt’s skepticism started when he was asked to review an IPCC report on renewable energy. He found hundreds of errors. When he pointed them out, IPCC officials simply brushed them aside. Stunned, he asked himself, “Is this the way they approached the climate assessment reports?”

Vahrenholt decided to do some digging. His colleague Dr. Lüning also gave him a copy of Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion. He was horrified by the sloppiness and deception he found. Persuaded by Hoffmann & Campe, he and Lüning decided to write the book. Die kalte Sonne cites 800 sources and has over 80 charts and figures. It examines and summarizes the latest science.

Conclusion: climate catastrophe is called off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Giovanna isn't looking too good anymore.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, yeah? Me, too, and now the 5-2 and a double trey are stuck in my throat. Next time I may try cooking them first...

Helps if you throw an old shoe in the pot.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
started drizzling in the suwannee valley area around 18:30.. not much going on now.
azaleas, redbuds, hawthorn, and camellias (still) blooming here. a frost will take out the azaleas.
north florida temps dropped below 30F on 11-12-2011, for whomever was speculating about that..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I enjoyed Dr. M's blog tonight. I lived just south of Ann Arbor for four years, know the area well. I needed a smile, so Thanks Dr. M!

We're looking at a low tonight of 34, and 27 tomorrow night. And some people think it doesn't get cold in Louisiana...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
170. Skyepony (Mod)
AF306 got HDOB too..Highest wind at flight level was 93kt!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 220 - 170

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.