My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Well let's look on the bright side concerning Iran. It's probably just a ploy to keep the gas prices up till summer. Please remember the ancillary benefits if we can get the stock market to tank and the economy to dive we can all have a one term president. Remember whats truly important you all.
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Brush fires are a possibbility in parts of Puerto Rico as dry and unusual warm temperatures for this time of the year prevail at least until next Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...METAR PLOTS AND RTMA ANALYSIS SHOW RATHER LOW RH
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF PR TODAY WITH MIN_RH AROUND 45%. 950-850 MB
LAPSE RATES QUITE STEEP ACCORDING TO AN 1805Z SJU ACARS SOUNDING
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IS YIELDING VERY HIGH HAINES
INDICES NOT TYPICAL FOR OUR LATITUDES. LUCKLILY...THERE ARE NOT
FIRES AT THIS TIME THAT WE KNOW OF AS THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES. DESPITE
THE LIGHT WINDS NEXT FEW DAYS...THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD STILL YIELD
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES.
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How's the weather in Hom Syria, is the wu page down or something?

Hom, Syria wu page

Updated 28489 hr 21 min 46 sec ago - This station is not reporting!

Huh, must be a glitch or sumting?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I disagree. The situation is very similar to WWI, with regional alliances and nations with multiple ethnic groups only held together by brutal dictators. All it will take is the fall of the Syrian government for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States rushing in to create a new political system. This will lead to a general war in the area that puts the Arab nations, Western Europe, and the United States against Russia, Iran, and the terrorist groups in the region (Hezbollah, Al-Qaida, etc.). Then, as the wars cause financial chaos the modernized nations and their economies will enter a new Depression which will end up with the breakup of the E.U. and some sort of civil uprising in the U.S.

Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.

And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.


There's more of a chance of an asteroid impact wiping out the planet then that scenario happening. But if that keeps you stimulating the economy by buying prepper gear, I won't stop you. :D
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I disagree. The situation is very similar to WWI, with regional alliances and nations with multiple ethnic groups only held together by brutal dictators. All it will take is the fall of the Syrian government for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States rushing in to create a new political system. This will lead to a general war in the area that puts the Arab nations, Western Europe, and the United States against Russia, Iran, and the terrorist groups in the region (Hezbollah, Al-Qaida, etc.). Then, as the wars cause financial chaos the modernized nations and their economies will enter a new Depression which will end up with the breakup of the E.U. and some sort of civil uprising in the U.S.

Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.

And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.


Yep, don't lose that positive attitude! :) I'm feeling better with each entry from the bloggers today.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Just checking in before running back out. Thanks again Keeper( post 237) that's what I'm talking about. First glance thought we were young and running against the wind. It's nice to keep it fresh for an old middle age fart.
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Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
All that is, repeats in a Fractal..its just time again. Doing its thing, as we aint learned squat in 50,000 generations.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
CMC at 168 hours.. I mean 144 hours..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
I disagree. The situation is very similar to WWI, with regional alliances and nations with multiple ethnic groups only held together by brutal dictators. All it will take is the fall of the Syrian government for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States rushing in to create a new political system. This will lead to a general war in the area that puts the Arab nations, Western Europe, and the United States against Russia, Iran, and the terrorist groups in the region (Hezbollah, Al-Qaida, etc.). Then, as the wars cause financial chaos the modernized nations and their economies will enter a new Depression which will end up with the breakup of the E.U. and some sort of civil uprising in the U.S.

Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.

And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Eyewall Replacement Cycle is almost done, Giovanna should begin to strengthen later.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Fukushima cleanup: first ya wash the outside windows, then you kick up dust removing the topsoil.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Grothar:


the eye is almost clear on microwave we dont have far 2 go before it strengthens once more to cat 4 :D:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
grrr...stupid rain...i dont want rain!!!i want thunder n lighting WITH the rain!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:


Lot of talking from the manly keyboard warriors as well

THE ROVING EYE
The return of the Keyboard Warriors
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB11Ak02 .html


Be afraid. Be very afraid. The Return of the Keyboard Warriors - a prized Return of the Living Dead spin-off - is at hand. From Republican chicken hawks to public intellectuals, right-wing America is erupting in renewed neo-conservative revolt. The year 2012 is the new 2002; Iran is the new Iraq. Whatever the highway - real men go to Tehran via Damascus, or real men go to Tehran
non-stop - they want a war, and they want it now.

Go ahead and jump Exhibit A is an op-ed piece at the Wall Street Journal [1] - similar to countless others popping up virtually everyday not only in this Masters of the Universe vehicle but also in the Washington Post and myriad rags across "Western civilization".

The festival of fallacies ranges from the usual "diplomacy has run its course" to "the sanctions are too late" - culminating in the right-wing weapon of choice; "Iran is within a year of getting to the point when it will be able to assemble a bomb essentially at will." Why bother to follow what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is doing, not to mention the National Intelligence Estimates released by the US intelligence community?

And why not add imperial disdain tinged with racism, as in "Iran is a Third World country that can't even protect its own scientists in the heart of Tehran". Of course not; they are being killed by the Iranian terror group Mujahideen-e-Khalq, merrily trained, financed and armed by Israel's Mossad, as US corporate media has just discovered. [2] Everybody in Iran has known this for months.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB11Ak02 .html
iran already has the bomb that will be announce real soon and if mankind wants it gone then they all should be gone not one place on earth should have it simple
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53787
Freeze Warning Orleans Parish

... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am
CST Sunday...

* timing... temperatures will fall into the upper 20s with sub
freezing temperatures for a few hours.

* Temperature... low temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees can
be expected from midnight to mid-morning Sunday.

* Impacts... sensitive plants... particularly those that have
bloomed or emerged prematurely... are at risk of damage or
being killed if not properly protected. Very dry air with low
humidity levels will also pose a higher than usual fire risk...
particularly with the use of heaters.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a
danger of fire or poisonous fumes.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Advection freeze for most of central Florida tonight. Cover those plants!
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Only 110 days until June 1rst.


:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D::D:D:D:D:D:D

getting close, but sooooo far..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting SPLbeater:
im getting sick of winter.....im ready for summer!!!


Only 110 days until June 1rst.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


This is mainly just sensationalism. I've yet to see any real scientific research on the supposed phenomena, and any videos of the phenomena are very much suspect. Especially if most of the sound energy is supposed to be at infra-sound levels.

At any rate, there's no point worrying about it. If indeed the world were about to enter a new age of geological upheaval we'll all be dead in short order anyway.


Well that thought just made my day!!! :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
What's winter?



the timeframe when temperatures go below 72F and i dont sweat, and everything is cold and the wind is cold and i dont get thunderstorms, just ol boring snow.

Thats winter xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Giovanna eyewall now starting to take shape, going to be larger then pinhole i think :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting SPLbeater:
im getting sick of winter.....im ready for summer!!!
What's winter?
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
im getting sick of winter.....im ready for summer!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
It's nice to have some cool weather here in SWFL, though much as I like warmth, I wouldn't mind more than a few days' worth of the cooler stuff; summer will be here before we know it. The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast through Wednesday across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Bring it on, can't believe grass is starting to turn green doesn't happen very often in Feb. or March. Nite all.
I have already mowed and edged my yard twice since late January, yes even for South Central Texas this is unusual. Only 3 days here just below 32 this Winter, way too warm
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Quoting Skyepony:
Interesting on the mysterious hum..

We have analyzed records of these sounds and found that most of their spectrum lies within the infrasound range, i.e. is not audible to humans. What people hear is only a small fraction of the actual power of these sounds. They are low-frequency acoustic emissions in the range between 20 and 100 Hz modulated by ultra-low infrasonic waves from 0.1 to 15 Hz. In geophysics, they are called acoustic-gravity waves; they are formed in the upper atmosphere, at the atmosphere-ionosphere boundary in particular. There can be quite a lot of causes why those waves are generated: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, storms, tsunamis, etc. However, the scale of the observed humming sound in terms of both the area covered and its power far exceeds those that can be generated by the above-mentioned phenomena.


It goes on to site two theories. First the increased solar activity & second increased energy forces at the core of the earth causing the gravity waves. Based on all this it's forecast to worsen with this sun cycle & peak 2013-14 with a flurry of quakes, volcanoes & extreme weather...kinda confirming they are the sounds of the apocalypse.


This is mainly just sensationalism. I've yet to see any real scientific research on the supposed phenomena, and any videos of the phenomena are very much suspect. Especially if most of the sound energy is supposed to be at infra-sound levels.

At any rate, there's no point worrying about it. If indeed the world were about to enter a new age of geological upheaval we'll all be dead in short order anyway.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting Neapolitan:
With the positive AO mentioned by Skyepony, the ice is almost certain to increase over the next several weeks. But, again, the peak is nearly here, and soon the ice begins to melt apace. The following graph is as good as any at showing where things have been, where they are, and what's in store...

Uh-oh


There's a lot of open water on the Atlantic side of the Arctic at the moment. We'll likely see ice form in that area, but as you point out the end of the freeze season is close.

Extent will likely grow but the new ice will be very thin and soon give away to encroaching sunshine and residual warm water.

If that area melts early in the season then the resulting loss of albedo and increased heated water is going to eat into the Central Arctic ice pack.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Sea ice extent has made a slight rebound over the past few days, which means it's almost back to the previous record low.





If this keeps up, we'll only be 3 standard deviations below the norm. :P
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting Neapolitan:
In the meantime, sea ice area has actually dropped by a tiny amount (588 km2) over the past six days, so it's at a record low, roughly 131,000 km2 lower than 2007 was on this date, and 225,000 km2 lower than last year. (It's pretty amazing that over the past four weeks, just 165,000 km2 of area have been added; during the same period last year, 1,180,000 km2 was added, and 944,000 km2 in 2007.)

Predictions are for a new record low maximum (which should be within the next three to four weeks), a faster than normal drop through July, a new record low minimum in September--and even worse for the following summer.


This could be some sort of tipping point if it verifies.

Last year the methane torches were really bad. This year they should be much worse if the melt season is significantly worse than last year.


It's shocking how bad the quality of ice is on the Atlantic side between Greenland and Russia, even compared to last year.

Daily Sea Ice map

The 80 to 100% quality between Greenland and Russia has been severely eroded compared to last year.

I doubt changes in cloud cover would make that big a difference to the satellites.


It remains very poor indeed.

The only place on the Atlantic side that may be an improvement from last year is a tiny sliver near Nova Scotia.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Patrap:


As the time wave crest nears, the resonance is responding to it.

The Great attractor is closer now than ever before, and every second it closes the Gap between us.

Time is approaching it's end in the linear scale.

The Globe resonates that, as the eschaton nears.



???????????????????????????????
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485


As the time wave crest nears, the resonance is responding to it.

The Great attractor is closer now than ever before, and every second it closes the Gap between us.

Time is approaching it's end in the linear scale.

The Globe resonates that, as the eschaton nears.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Nope, it would be rain down in NC...


That's stupid :|
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like a line of strong summer thunderstorms, but no: It's a snow squall forecasted to move through Virginia and Maryland this afternoon. Could see a quick inch of snow with it!


im in central NC> will i git any
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ooooooo, that shows snow in my area.


Nope, it would be rain down in NC...

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
With the positive AO mentioned by Skyepony, the ice is almost certain to increase over the next several weeks. But, again, the peak is nearly here, and soon the ice begins to melt apace. The following graph is as good as any at showing where things have been, where they are, and what's in store...

Uh-oh
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like a line of strong summer thunderstorms, but no: It's a snow squall forecasted to move through Virginia and Maryland this afternoon. Could see a quick inch of snow with it!

Ooooooo, that shows snow in my area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001


Looks like a line of strong summer thunderstorms, but no: It's a snow squall forecasted to move through Virginia and Maryland this afternoon. Could see a quick inch of snow with it!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting RTSplayer:
Sea ice extent has made a slight rebound over the past few days, which means it's almost back to the previous record low.





Of course that's only a two dimensional representation of Arctic sea ice. What that graph does not show is how much thinner the ice is than it was in 2007.

Thinner ice means, assuming normal weather conditions, a new record low ice level for this coming fall. Last melt season we saw a new low produced by moderate weather conditions.

Things could be very interesting in a few months....
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279. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Sea ice extent has made a slight rebound over the past few days, which means it's almost back to the previous record low.



In the meantime, sea ice area (as opposed to extent) has actually dropped by a tiny amount (588 km2) over the past six days, so it's at a record low, roughly 131,000 km2 lower than 2007 was on this date, and 225,000 km2 lower than last year. (It's pretty amazing that over the past four weeks, just 165,000 km2 of area have been added; during the same period last year, 1,180,000 km2 was added, and 944,000 km2 in 2007.)

Predictions are for a new record low maximum (which should be within the next three to four weeks), a faster than normal drop through July, a new record low minimum in September--and even worse for the following summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
277. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting RTSplayer:
Sea ice extent has made a slight rebound over the past few days, which means it's almost back to the previous record low.





AO going neg really helped save some ice from being pushed out into the Atlantic. Forecast to go positive again..
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The inner eyewall of Giovanna is just about gone, rite now (her?) eyewall is a ragged oval, much much biggr the it was yestrday
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting Tazmanian:
Google Chrome user you can now upgrade tooo Google Chrome 17


im on chrome rite now how do i upgrade
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
274. Skyepony (Mod)
Interesting on the mysterious hum..

We have analyzed records of these sounds and found that most of their spectrum lies within the infrasound range, i.e. is not audible to humans. What people hear is only a small fraction of the actual power of these sounds. They are low-frequency acoustic emissions in the range between 20 and 100 Hz modulated by ultra-low infrasonic waves from 0.1 to 15 Hz. In geophysics, they are called acoustic-gravity waves; they are formed in the upper atmosphere, at the atmosphere-ionosphere boundary in particular. There can be quite a lot of causes why those waves are generated: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, storms, tsunamis, etc. However, the scale of the observed humming sound in terms of both the area covered and its power far exceeds those that can be generated by the above-mentioned phenomena.


It goes on to site two theories. First the increased solar activity & second increased energy forces at the core of the earth causing the gravity waves. Based on all this it's forecast to worsen with this sun cycle & peak 2013-14 with a flurry of quakes, volcanoes & extreme weather...kinda confirming they are the sounds of the apocalypse.
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Google Chrome user you can now upgrade tooo Google Chrome 17
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Sea ice extent has made a slight rebound over the past few days, which means it's almost back to the previous record low.



Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The makings of a really bad storm for Nova Scotia and surrounding areas:




So the 1003mb and is absorbed, the 1008mb dissipates, while the 1004 moves fast north and deepens to 967mb over Nova Scotia, and a new developing storm force low takes shape at 996mb south of it.

Cool, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting KoritheMan:

Thought it was obvious from the context. The former.

Ugly thing...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.