My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Quoting yqt1001:


So then why does infantry exist today then if it is "useless in modern warfare"?


Ask our braindead commanders.


Really, it's because of Geneva Convention.

Since we handcuff ourselves, we need men to go search house to house for terrorists and other war criminals in order to "arrest" them and bring them to trial, which is not only ridiculous, but insane, since this gives up all of the technological advantages gained by the navy and air power.


In short, our military strategists are both out-dated and handcuffed by international law which is not up-to-date with dealing with situations such as suicide bombing terrorists, and the two-faced nature of Islam.

"We're on your side," they say, but really we know they support the terrorist, we just can't "prove" it...

Then you end up having to give enemy combatants more rights than your own citizens and soldiers, again, due to Geneva convention.


But what I said was correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
its going to be even colder tomorrow, might have to build a fire

GFS took all precipitation out of my forecast in the 180hr forecast
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
And, as all hope seems lost, SPLbeater types random weather comments to put the blog back on track-

Its windy and cold outside
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
What would probably end up happening is the U.S. just bombs the mess out of the Chinese Navy (which has 1 aircraft carrier to the U.S.s 12), then proceed to take out the air force using carriers as bases. They would then launch ground forces and push in 50 miles or so, taking out the coast (and the largest population, manufacturing, and exporting area of China) then dig in and let China try to storm our trenches and wipe them out when they counterattack.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Just made this map in 5 minutes....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
why the frick is everybody talking aout a war with china, geez relax everyone. this aint CNN xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting RTSplayer:



Do you understand how utterly useless a "manpower" advantage is in modern warfare?

Seriously?

When one ship can level an entire city in a few hours, you think a 5 to 1 manpower advantage matters?


You dont "invade" the other country at all. That's dumb as hell. It offers you nothing to gain, and offers them targets to kill.

Ground units are not needed to win a war. In fact, they're a liability, since all you're doing is offering your enemy soft targets.

Once you destroy the enemy Navy and Airforce(or at least establish air dominance near the coast,) the war is over. You bomb every coastal city and SIT on their ports, and destroy anything that moves....and sit there as long as necessary.

A ground invasion isn't needed, because we have missiles, drones and lasers, and now rail guns. I'm positive the Chinese don't have those yet. We don't need ground recon due to drones and satellites, which can tell the make and model of your car, etc.

We have nuclear power for aircraft carriers, submarines, and most of our other large ships, so fuel is not a problem or concern. We can hold a siege or blockade for TEN YEARS without even refueling some of these vessels.


So then why does infantry exist today then if it is "useless in modern warfare"?
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Exactly. China's army is 300 MILLION soldiers strong. If the U.S. instituted a draft of everyone and got the armies of every ally we might be able to get 150 mil. We do have the technological edge and the geographical edge, so those would be a plus.

Army size: China
Technology: U.S.
Geography: U.S.
Will to fight: China
Government: Tie

Sounds very similar to your example of the Nazi invasion of the U.S.S.R. It would be a Stalingrad of epic proportions, and turn into a war of attrition quickly. And guess who has more people and manufacturing and is on the home field? China.

They would send soldiers in like Stalin did: One man with a rifle, one man with a clip of ammo. One dies and the other gets the other part, ammo or weapon.

Although it would probably cause a massive increase in U.S. jobs and manufacturing, solving both of those problems in a week....


I believe that China has the geographical advantage in this case.

China could easily retreat a few kilometers per day until pretty much Chengdu/Kunming and still have a large enough output of people and materials to stop the invasion. They have mountains past that point, and could probably use the mountains to a huge advantage. China is also shaped like the USSR in the sense that its long and more than capable of halting an invasion. The US has the advantage that its on the other side of the world, but only until China develops a significant navy.

With the comparison to Germany and USSR in the 40s, the US doesn't use the blitzkreig tactic that the Germans did, so the invasion would likely go much slower and may even fail to reach Beijing before millions of men are forced into trenches to fight a deadly war of attrition.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting yqt1001:
A war with China in 2000: US would've won.

A war with China today: US could invade China, but face the same fate of the Germans in the USSR in the 1940s. It would be a long bloody war of attrition that would end in a stalemate. China can't launch an invasion on US soil, and the US wouldn't last a few years on Chinese soil. China has way more manpower at their disposal, and I am 100% sure they would launch live people out of cannons if they had to.



Do you understand how utterly useless a "manpower" advantage is in modern warfare?

Seriously?

When one ship can level an entire city in a few hours, you think a 5 to 1 manpower advantage matters?


You dont "invade" the other country at all. That's dumb as hell. It offers you nothing to gain, and offers them targets to kill.

Ground units are not needed to win a war. In fact, they're a liability, since all you're doing is offering your enemy soft targets.

Once you destroy the enemy Navy and Airforce(or at least establish air dominance near the coast,) the war is over. You bomb every coastal city and SIT on their ports, and destroy anything that moves....and sit there as long as necessary.

A ground invasion isn't needed, because we have missiles, drones and lasers, and now rail guns. I'm positive the Chinese don't have those yet. We don't need ground recon due to drones and satellites, which can tell the make and model of your car, etc.

We have nuclear power for aircraft carriers, submarines, and most of our other large ships, so fuel is not a problem or concern. We can hold a siege or blockade for TEN YEARS without even refueling some of these vessels.
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Quoting hydrus:
The very thought of going to war with China is horrific..The Russians are pretty tight with China, and could be a factor if such a war were to happen.


The Russians have their own problems to deal with, and actually Russia is still not friendly with China, and hasn't been since the Cold War. They would probably stay out of it until a winner was emerging.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Ahmadinejad: Iran to reveal new nuke achievements
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Exactly. China's army is 300 MILLION soldiers strong. If the U.S. instituted a draft of everyone and got the armies of every ally we might be able to get 150 mil. We do have the technological edge and the geographical edge, so those would be a plus.

Army size: China
Technology: U.S.
Geography: U.S.
Will to fight: China
Government: Tie

Sounds very similar to your example of the Nazi invasion of the U.S.S.R. It would be a Stalingrad of epic proportions, and turn into a war of attrition quickly. And guess who has more people and manufacturing and is on the home field? China.

They would send soldiers in like Stalin did: One man with a rifle, one man with a clip of ammo. One dies and the other gets the other part, ammo or weapon.

Although it would probably cause a massive increase in U.S. jobs and manufacturing, solving both of those problems in a week....
The very thought of going to war with China is horrific..The Russians are pretty tight with China, and could be a factor if such a war were to happen.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20529
359. SoAl
As an avid Canadian gardener I have been noticing changes over the years to warmer conditions and the plants we can grow.
Keep in mind our hardiness zone maps are slightly different however in Canada my city was firmly in our zone 3 but I have been growing zone 4 plants for several years.
It may not help you to know that the City of Calgary has been planting Ohio Buckeye trees for a few decades now. Sports rivalries aside I appreciate them for their spring flowers, luxurious leaves and beautiful orange fall colour.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Trending farther north with that system I see...
There will be a low in the gulf to help pull moisture into the mid-week system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20529
Quoting yqt1001:
A war with China in 2000: US would've won.

A war with China today: US could invade China, but face the same fate of the Germans in the USSR in the 1940s. It would be a long bloody war of attrition that would end in a stalemate. China can't launch an invasion on US soil, and the US wouldn't last a few years on Chinese soil. China has way more manpower at their disposal, and I am 100% sure they would launch live people out of cannons if they had to.


Exactly. China's army is 300 MILLION soldiers strong. If the U.S. instituted a draft of everyone and got the armies of every ally we might be able to get 150 mil. We do have the technological edge and the geographical edge, so those would be a plus.

Army size: China
Technology: U.S.
Geography: U.S.
Will to fight: China
Government: Tie

Sounds very similar to your example of the Nazi invasion of the U.S.S.R. It would be a Stalingrad of epic proportions, and turn into a war of attrition quickly. And guess who has more people and manufacturing and is on the home field? China.

They would send soldiers in like Stalin did: One man with a rifle, one man with a clip of ammo. One dies and the other gets the other part, ammo or weapon.

Although it would probably cause a massive increase in U.S. jobs and manufacturing, solving both of those problems in a week....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting hydrus:
CMC at 168 hours.. I mean 144 hours..


Trending farther north with that system I see...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A war with China in 2000: US would've won.

A war with China today: US could invade China, but face the same fate of the Germans in the USSR in the 1940s. It would be a long bloody war of attrition that would end in a stalemate. China can't launch an invasion on US soil, and the US wouldn't last a few years on Chinese soil. China has way more manpower at their disposal, and I am 100% sure they would launch live people out of cannons if they had to.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
What if Al-Qaeda was the most powerful organization in the world?

What if they ruled entire nation-states, how would you fight them under Geneva Convention?

they use dirty tactics and break every concept of morality and honor, except their own, and they even break that too when it suits their immediate needs. The Koran gives them that command to do so.

Of course, you realize, if Shariah Law-abiding Islam actually was the biggest organization in the world, you and I would be summarily executed, along with just about everyone in the U.S., India, China, the southern half of Africa, and Europe.


The way we do warfare and counter-terrorism in modern times is about as foolish as the redcoats lining up by batallion and company during the revolutionary war.

You don't beat these people by having squads of soldiers patrolling the streets. All that does is give them a target.

We declare a campaign as a "victory" and pretty much didn't even do anything. Probably as many as half the people in office in Iraq are the same people as under Saddam...
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Quoting RTSplayer:



Even if money failed, the U.S. military is so powerful it could easily defeat most of those nations...combined... in a "total war" situation, without the use of WMD.

In fact, if you knew the world economy was going to collapse in a short time, then making your military as big as possible would be the smart thing to do; that way you can bust everyone else anyway.


If the U.S. took the gloves off, we could flatten small fries like Syria in one or two days. There'd be nothing left but craters from one border to the other, and you do't need WMD to do that: One or two carriers and a few destroyers is all you need.

What gets most of our troops killed or injured in places like Iraq and Afghanistan is PC BS, which causes us to fight stupid urban warfare, instead of just sitting back and smothering people with superior conventional military.

What costs the U.S. so much MONEY in warfare is again PC BS, because we spend a million dollars EACH to make the guidance system for a smart bomb so we can kill the dictator in his office, while sparing the life of his secretary in the next room over; AS IF they are somehow innocent of all the evils they help perpetuate.

In many cases it would be cheaper, more cost effective, and even morally superior to just carpet bomb the entire complex.


Pulling punches and fundamentally IGNORING the root problems in Iraq and Afghanistan (and Saudi Arabia), due to political correctness and multi-culturalism, is main reason the U.S. was there and is there so long, getting thousands of people killed and wounded needlessly.

There is NO SENSE in getting thousands of infantrymen killed and ten thousands wounded given our modern air power and artillery.

What happened to the "Either you're with us or against us," policy?

Hey, you know what, back up and bomb the hell out of the town until everyone surrenders, unconditionally, and turns over the terrorists.

That's how you protect your own soldiers, citizens, and economy.

The way the mess should have been handled after 9/11 would be to make it the U.S. policy to indescriminantly bomb ANY nation found to be supporting any form of international terrorism against us, and after the first bombing, if they do it again, bomb them ten times harder the next time.

Eventually any "good" people will decide it probably makes sense to start turning over the terrorists.

We should also cut funding to Pakistan immediately, and even put sanctions on them, because it's obvious that they not only knew Bin Laden was there, but they were probably even funneling money to him.


But what's going to happen is the same old PC BS, where we'll actually be paying our enemies to fight us and our allies.


You can't go around bombing everyone because you can. How would you feel if you were a weaker nation and you kept getting your sovereignty violated because another country didn't like what you were doing inside your borders. It wouldn't be a good feeling at all.

And besides, I can tell you that the Founding Fathers probably didn't envision the United States being an international bully on the scale of the British Empire of the 17-1800s. If China dropped bombs on us for offering asylum to a dissident who didn't agree with us, how would the government react? What could possibly be a good outcome of that situation?

And besides, China is the second most powerful military in the world right now, so saying that if we got into a confrontation with them, they would be a pushover makes no sense. It would be a stalemate and if any side began to get an advantage over another I can tell you that the Communist leaders aover there would not hesitate to use the Bomb on us, because they know that we wouldn't do it first.....

Diplomacy is more complicated than who has the biggest and most bombs and who can use them the best, it's about trying to find peaceful solutions to the problem.

Unfortunately, peaceful solutions to some of our problems with hostile nations are beginning to run out....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting RTSplayer:
...much nonsense clipped...


You can't fight a war against an ideal. You will lose, no matter how many bombs you throw at it.

Indiscriminate bombing of helpless nations is not only ridiculously inhumane, utterly pointless as well. By your logic, we should never negotiate in hostage situations, just kill them all as it will teach future hostage takers a lesson. I can guarantee that the vast majority of people want to have nothing to do with terrorists, nor particularly enjoy being carpet bombed as a penalty for the crimes of a few rich and powerful psychopathic jackasses.

Fortunately, most world leaders are beyond the tyrannical stage of "Do what I want or I'll bomb you to hell!". That may work in your RTS games, but it is a sick and twisted philosophy in the real world. For fig's sake, they're human beings too.
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Quoting Cotillion:
It's almost as funny as the guy predicting the US could destroy everyone militarily if it weren't for that pesky Geneva Convention


Actually, I didn't say that at all.

We could do that within "conventional" warfare. I said no WMD needed.

I also didn't say "everyone". I said "Most". Big difference there.

Anyway, it's unfortunate that a stricter and stricter application of the Geneva Convention is part of the reason U.S. (and European!) casualties are needlessly so high during conflicts of other nations.

If we adhered to our own constitution as strictly as we did the Geneva Convention, then the "Human shields" who wen't to Iraq just before the Shock and Awe campaign should have been prosecuted for treason.

As defined by article 3 section 3 of the U.S. constitution:

"Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court."


This means that every person who went to Iraq or Libya as a "Human shield," under the guise that such action would prevent the U.S. actions there, is guilty of Treason.

Although, as you can see, a legal conviction of treason is virtually impossible to obtain....then again, some of them were wearing t-shirts identifying themselves, so um...


Reality is, "He started it," is often the only moral high ground anyone has anyway.

Police officers are forced to make a kill decision in domestic law all the time, and we consider this justified in order to protect life and limb of others.

Why people find this same reasoning repulsive in matters of international law or warfare is beyond me.

Killing terrorists and destroying rogue governments is a good and just action, which we should actively do whenever and wherever possible.

Being a pacifist does nothing but perpetuate the terrorist (or rogue government's) evil actions.
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NOLA Long Range Disco chats about a Threat for the Weekend ,as we will have 200 thousand extra Folks visiting by that time for Fat Tuesday to Follow the weekend.

Long term...

Arctic air mass undergoes rapid moderation by Monday over the Appalachians with onshore flow onsetting in the western Gulf Coast region. Moisture return could be quite rich in advance of next system to develop over the High Plains.
Rain appears to be a nearly sure bet for Monday night before drying out for Tuesday and
Wednesday. The next system in a series is expected to develop in the Lower Plains states Wednesday night and bring next round of rain to the forecast area Thursday.
Friday should be cool and dry.

Models are showing rather large system evolving out of West Coast cut-off low to enter the middle-Gulf Coast region next weekend.

Not totally sold on timing but either super-krewe Saturday or super- krewe Sunday are in jeopardy of inclement weather.

At this time...placing greater emphasis on Saturday...but timing may be adjusted as the event nears.

(The Super Krewes are the Parades of Endymion Saturday Evening , and Bacchus Sunday.)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Giovanna:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31527
Typhoon Megi satellite loop:



Hurricane Dean satellite loop (revised to correct satellite switching problems in Caribbean)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31527
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you mad bro
He may actually have a point though.It was said that the atomic bombs dropped on Japan saved millions of allied lives and ten's of millions of Japanese lives . New CMC.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20529
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
no wonder we arent getting snow here...the GFS says system might be weaker on tuesday, and once the snow hits the NC Apalachians, its breaks up and dissipates :D

no snow OR rain, i like that
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS has been showing some really cold air coming in the USA by the end of February. Didn't believe this at first, but it's been showing it for several days now. I guess the groundhog's prediction wasn't too far off after all. :P


no no no this cant be i dont want more cold weather!

GFS took the snow showers out mf my forecast :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting RTSplayer:



Even if money failed, the U.S. military is so powerful it could easily defeat most of those nations...combined... in a "total war" situation, without the use of WMD.

In fact, if you knew the world economy was going to collapse in a short time, then making your military as big as possible would be the smart thing to do; that way you can bust everyone else anyway.


If the U.S. took the gloves off, we could flatten small fries like Syria in one or two days. There'd be nothing left but craters from one border to the other, and you do't need WMD to do that: One or two carriers and a few destroyers is all you need.

What gets most of our troops killed or injured in places like Iraq and Afghanistan is PC BS, which causes us to fight stupid urban warfare, instead of just sitting back and smothering people with superior conventional military.

What costs the U.S. so much MONEY in warfare is again PC BS, because we spend a million dollars EACH to make the guidance system for a smart bomb so we can kill the dictator in his office, while sparing the life of his secretary in the next room over; AS IF they are somehow innocent of all the evils they help perpetuate.

In many cases it would be cheaper, more cost effective, and even morally superior to just carpet bomb the entire complex.


Pulling punches and fundamentally IGNORING the root problems in Iraq and Afghanistan (and Saudi Arabia), due to political correctness and multi-culturalism, is main reason the U.S. was there and is there so long, getting thousands of people killed and wounded needlessly.

There is NO SENSE in getting thousands of infantrymen killed and ten thousands wounded given our modern air power and artillery.

What happened to the "Either you're with us or against us," policy?

Hey, you know what, back up and bomb the hell out of the town until everyone surrenders, unconditionally, and turns over the terrorists.

That's how you protect your own soldiers, citizens, and economy.

The way the mess should have been handled after 9/11 would be to make it the U.S. policy to indescriminantly bomb ANY nation found to be supporting any form of international terrorism against us, and after the first bombing, if they do it again, bomb them ten times harder the next time.

Eventually any "good" people will decide it probably makes sense to start turning over the terrorists.

We should also cut funding to Pakistan immediately, and even put sanctions on them, because it's obvious that they not only knew Bin Laden was there, but they were probably even funneling money to him.


But what's going to happen is the same old PC BS, where we'll actually be paying our enemies to fight us and our allies.
you mad bro
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting washingtonian115:
The winds came ah blow'in outside just now,and brought with them the cold and snow.In one full package it came.It's like a mimi blizzard outside.


i measured a wind gust to 16.3 knots(18.8mph) earlier when i went walking with my dad. pretty windy out there 2day
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Some interesting weather could be in the offing this coming week...

Miami NWS Discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
To far out to say. Its something to watch tho..I think there will be some severe weather with it.

Yeah, it looks like Severe Weather is a possibility. However, compared to what the GFS showed a week ago, this should be just a minor event.

Moisture return hasn't been setup for this spring yet. When it does though, I bet we'll be seeing some terrifying outbreaks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31527
Quoting SPLbeater:


thats a nice avatar u got there should keep that one

so is dis saying that there is going to be a possible low to drop snow over the east?
To far out to say. Its something to watch tho..I think there will be some severe weather with it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20529
The GFS has been showing some really cold air coming in the USA by the end of February. Didn't believe this at first, but it's been showing it for several days now. I guess the groundhog's prediction wasn't too far off after all. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31527
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I disagree. The situation is very similar to WWI, with regional alliances and nations with multiple ethnic groups only held together by brutal dictators. All it will take is the fall of the Syrian government for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States rushing in to create a new political system. This will lead to a general war in the area that puts the Arab nations, Western Europe, and the United States against Russia, Iran, and the terrorist groups in the region (Hezbollah, Al-Qaida, etc.). Then, as the wars cause financial chaos the modernized nations and their economies will enter a new Depression which will end up with the breakup of the E.U. and some sort of civil uprising in the U.S.

Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.

And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.


I can't wait for the Wikipedia article.

World War III: Mayan decisive victory. Who knew buried under the temple at Tikal was several thousand tons of instant sunshine?

It's almost as funny as the guy predicting the US could destroy everyone militarily if it weren't for that pesky Geneva Convention!

It felt like a mild winter and it was until the last week or so. Plummeted to about 5 to 10F overnight and barely going above freezing (if at all) in the day. Brr. Not as bad as other countries though, Italy and Poland have been frozen. At least -20F in the latter.

Aside one day, avoided the snow, though.



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The winds came ah blow'in outside just now,and brought with them the cold and snow.In one full package it came.It's like a mimi blizzard outside.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I disagree. The situation is very similar to WWI, with regional alliances and nations with multiple ethnic groups only held together by brutal dictators. All it will take is the fall of the Syrian government for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States rushing in to create a new political system. This will lead to a general war in the area that puts the Arab nations, Western Europe, and the United States against Russia, Iran, and the terrorist groups in the region (Hezbollah, Al-Qaida, etc.). Then, as the wars cause financial chaos the modernized nations and their economies will enter a new Depression which will end up with the breakup of the E.U. and some sort of civil uprising in the U.S.

Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.

And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.
stock up on beer
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eyewall Replacement Cycle is almost done, Giovanna should begin to strengthen later.





thats a nice avatar u got there should keep that one
Quoting hydrus:
CMC at 168 hours.. I mean 144 hours..


so is dis saying that there is going to be a possible low to drop snow over the east?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I have already mowed and edged my yard twice since late January, yes even for South Central Texas this is unusual. Only 3 days here just below 32 this Winter, way too warm
are they worried, with all this warm weather for you all out there..about another drought for texas this year?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37039
Lake effect snow machine is kicking in again for SW MI. Good thing we keep getting shots of warm weather to refresh the ground after almost every snow event.

We haven't had a shortage of snow in Jan in lower MI, it's been the warm bursts of air sometimes lasting a week that melts all the snow away before is can get above a foot.

This is much preferred to winters were we get different layers of snow, ice, and slush that don't get a chance to melt. That usually causes all sorts of flooding problems and just an overall mess come Spring.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Advection freeze for most of central Florida tonight. Cover those plants!
yes they say 41 tonight and 38 tomorrow night for my county but the wind will be absent so frost is a big factor to watch out for..guess the strawberry farmers will be all night watering to save their plants
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37039
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Interesting Brazil low

A lot of convection to the east of it..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20529

Interesting Brazil low

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So far this year, at least 180 drugs that are crucial for treating childhood leukemia, breast and colon cancer, infections and other diseases have been declared in short supply %u2014 a record number.
Prices for some have risen as much as eightyfold.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


1-2 inches isn't what I would call a nice snow storm....

gfs






Our "1 to 2 inches" last night ended up being less than a quarter of an inch -___-
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Guys...what about this Brazil subtropical low???
No one has said anything about...
There isn't much to say...

It's not subtropical first of all. It's a deep cold core storm (not even shallow warm core) with little to no convection around the surface low. While winds do just barely reach the requirements (models and ascat showing 35kt wind barbs), the storm is vertically stacked (being vertically stacked is good for tropical storms, but bad for extratropical or subtropical storms because it means divergence is no longer present aloft and surface pressures will cease to drop) so it will begin to weaken by tomorrow. Also, the storm is moving southwest and should be ripped apart by the westerlies by tomorrow night.
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Conflict..

Well Loberta, Well Loberta Girl, can't you hear me callin' you Well you're three times seven, baby You know just what you gotta do Well Loberta, well Loberta..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Nope, I disagree. The situation is very similar to WWI, with regional alliances and nations with multiple ethnic groups only held together by brutal dictators. All it will take is the fall of the Syrian government for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States rushing in to create a new political system. This will lead to a general war in the area that puts the Arab nations, Western Europe, and the United States against Russia, Iran, and the terrorist groups in the region (Hezbollah, Al-Qaida, etc.). Then, as the wars cause financial chaos the modernized nations and their economies will enter a new Depression which will end up with the breakup of the E.U. and some sort of civil uprising in the U.S.

Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.

And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.



Even if money failed, the U.S. military is so powerful it could easily defeat most of those nations...combined... in a "total war" situation, without the use of WMD.

In fact, if you knew the world economy was going to collapse in a short time, then making your military as big as possible would be the smart thing to do; that way you can bust everyone else anyway.


If the U.S. took the gloves off, we could flatten small fries like Syria in one or two days. There'd be nothing left but craters from one border to the other, and you do't need WMD to do that: One or two carriers and a few destroyers is all you need.

What gets most of our troops killed or injured in places like Iraq and Afghanistan is PC BS, which causes us to fight stupid urban warfare, instead of just sitting back and smothering people with superior conventional military.

What costs the U.S. so much MONEY in warfare is again PC BS, because we spend a million dollars EACH to make the guidance system for a smart bomb so we can kill the dictator in his office, while sparing the life of his secretary in the next room over; AS IF they are somehow innocent of all the evils they help perpetuate.

In many cases it would be cheaper, more cost effective, and even morally superior to just carpet bomb the entire complex.


Pulling punches and fundamentally IGNORING the root problems in Iraq and Afghanistan (and Saudi Arabia), due to political correctness and multi-culturalism, is main reason the U.S. was there and is there so long, getting thousands of people killed and wounded needlessly.

There is NO SENSE in getting thousands of infantrymen killed and ten thousands wounded given our modern air power and artillery.

What happened to the "Either you're with us or against us," policy?

Hey, you know what, back up and bomb the hell out of the town until everyone surrenders, unconditionally, and turns over the terrorists.

That's how you protect your own soldiers, citizens, and economy.

The way the mess should have been handled after 9/11 would be to make it the U.S. policy to indescriminantly bomb ANY nation found to be supporting any form of international terrorism against us, and after the first bombing, if they do it again, bomb them ten times harder the next time.

Eventually any "good" people will decide it probably makes sense to start turning over the terrorists.

We should also cut funding to Pakistan immediately, and even put sanctions on them, because it's obvious that they not only knew Bin Laden was there, but they were probably even funneling money to him.


But what's going to happen is the same old PC BS, where we'll actually be paying our enemies to fight us and our allies.
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re: Ohio buckeye tree migration into Michigan -

LOL, Dr Jeff!
Well said, was a pleasure to read your light-hearted, humorous perspective, although I'm sure either buckeye is not welcome in Ann Arbor... But remember it could be worse - if you live in SE LA with our subsidence issues, disappearing "land masses" as the Gulf steadily encroaches NWD, combined with the last vestiges of inland habitat being quickly destroyed / converted by zealous, greedy overdevelopment... Tell ya what, I'll trade you some 2,4-D for a life raft!

And actually...
The adaptation / re-distribution of plants and animals that could be attributed to AGW over time totally pales with how rapidly undesirable species have already become established, expanding faster in all directions via the vastly interconnected routes of travel / commerce (highways / waterways) and modern mobility... Evidence abounds how many non-native / invasive species have spread and displaced native flora / fauna either by inadvertent transport, the folly of short-sided or misguided intentions to reckless, criminally negligent actions...

Hmmmm, on that note - uh oh, according to this historical distribution map looks like both Michigan and Ohio share blame on this one, lol!
;)

Invasive Zebra Mussel distribution USA: 1988-1997

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We might get to the M or N named storm this year.
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Well let's look on the bright side concerning Iran. It's probably just a ploy to keep the gas prices up till summer. Please remember the ancillary benefits if we can get the stock market to tank and the economy to dive we can all have a one term president. Remember whats truly important you all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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