My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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What do you guys think about a remergence of la nina. Later in the year after the end of the current la nina?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:


How about a nice game of chess?


Not now Joshua.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
Well the NWS has fallen in line with the GFS forecast for temperatures.

GFS also has 0.03in of rain in forecast for the 17th.

I dont like.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting Grothar:


The only way to win the game, is not to play.


How about a nice game of chess?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's up guys?...this is my first time on since last year, I would like to know if there has been three consecutive years of el nino or la nina?
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I think that we have very different ideas of what "win" means.


These "war games" do not include the use of nuclear weapons.....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
geez people must like talking about war and not enjoying theirselves....hmm....well i shall nto take part!

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's very similar. There is only one country that the US doesn't win more than 70% of the time: Russia.


I think that we have very different ideas of what "win" means.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


In the simulations that lasted longer than 5 years, China won 65% of the time.


That's called an attractor.

If the armies are indeed evenly matched, then the war could last very long, and yes, the home turf still favors the home team due to proximity and what we call "defender's advantage".

Defender's advantage is simply the idea that their production facilities and training grounds would be adjacent to the battle, so easier to reinforce.

So yes, if they somehow survived the first several years it's likely they could continue to put up a fight...

so yes, I'd agree with that assessment, as it's extremely logical.

The longer a war goes the more it favors the defending nation.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Really? No one here has seen Wargames?


The only way to win the game, is not to play.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Haha, I fell for it earlier as well. That is from yesterday.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Pretty comfortable here. The waters a little toasty for February though.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 22.0 kts

Wind Gust (GST): 26.0 kts

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in

Air Temperature (ATMP): 69.4 °F

Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F


I hate you just a lil bit.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Iraq and china are different missions with different parameters.


In conventional warfare, the U.S. destroyed all of Iraq's units in about 2 days. We only had about a dozen or so injuries and fatalities to our own units, and even this would have been avoidable. Several of these were actually due to accidents, as I recall.

It was only when the "policing" part of the insane mission started when we started to suffer casualties...due to Geneva Convention and the "don't shoot the 'good' muslims who are protecting the evil suicide bombing muslims" thing..

Additionally, in Iraq, our idiot leaders were attempting to teach democracy and morality to people who don't really know what that is, but are governed by fanaticism and a religion's blanket command to "kill all infidels".

Give democracy to evil people and they'll still vote for evil leaders, and they'll still follow the same evil ideology.

It never made any sense.

In China, there's no excuse because it would theoretically be a conventional war or a nuclear war...either way, the stupid "policing" by squads of infantrymen to "protect" the "good/democratic" muslims would not be an issue.


In a simulation, "winning" was probably defined as destroying and disabling enough of the enemy's military and infrastructure so that they would no longer be a critical threat to ours.

It probably was not defined in terms of some ridiculous political goals, as Iraq was.


In the simulations that lasted longer than 5 years, China won 65% of the time.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I guess that must be the same software they used for Iraq. That explains a lot actually.


Iraq and china are different missions with different parameters.


In conventional warfare, the U.S. destroyed all of Iraq's units in about 2 days. We only had about a dozen or so injuries and fatalities to our own units, and even this would have been avoidable. Several of these were actually due to accidents, as I recall.

It was only when the "policing" part of the insane mission started when we started to suffer casualties...due to Geneva Convention and the "don't shoot the 'good' muslims who are protecting the evil suicide bombing muslims" thing..

Additionally, in Iraq, our idiot leaders were attempting to teach democracy and morality to people who don't really know what that is, but are governed by fanaticism and a religion's blanket command to "kill all infidels".

Give democracy to evil people and they'll still vote for evil leaders, and they'll still follow the same evil ideology.

It never made any sense.

In China, there's no excuse because it would theoretically be a conventional war or a nuclear war...either way, the stupid "policing" by squads of infantrymen to "protect" the "good/democratic" muslims would not be an issue.


In a simulation, "winning" was probably defined as destroying and disabling enough of the enemy's military and infrastructure so that they would no longer be a critical threat to ours.

It probably was not defined in terms of some ridiculous political goals, as Iraq was.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Pretty comfortable here. The waters a little toasty for February though.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 22.0 kts

Wind Gust (GST): 26.0 kts

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in

Air Temperature (ATMP): 69.4 °F

Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F
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Really? No one here has seen Wargames?
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I guess that must be the same software they used for Iraq. That explains a lot actually.


It's very similar. There is only one country that the US doesn't win more than 70% of the time: Russia.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I have a friend who has war simulation software. He inputs the military data for the nations and then runs 1000 sims, slightly changing a few factors each time. U.S. beats china 87% of the time, and 13% of the time in less than a month.


I guess that must be the same software they used for Iraq. That explains a lot actually.
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This is the coldest weather on the Carolina Coast this year !!!




Special Statement
Statement as of 5:09 PM EST on February 11, 2012


... An Arctic blast will bring strong winds and cold...

The arrival of an Arctic blast this evening will bring strong
northwest winds. Winds this evening will gust up to 40 to 45 mph.
As temperatures tumble... the wind will make it feel as if it were
in the single numbers to around 10 degrees at times late tonight
and Sunday morning. The actual temperature will drop to 20 to 25
degrees overnight.

Not much of a temperature recovery is expected on Sunday. The
Mercury will struggle to reach above 40 degrees and for much of
the day it will feel as if it is below freezing. The incoming air
mass will also be very dry with afternoon relative humidity around
20 percent.

Any loose objects outside should be secured to prevent them from
being damaged. Exposed plumbing will be susceptible to freezing
and preventative measures are suggested to prevent damage.

Rjd
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
Quoting JNCali:
where you running at the time??


nooooope!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting hydrus:
It is a good thing countries like Iran and North Korea do not have a defense system as powerful as the Chinese.


Even if they did, no way they could hang with us. Best equipment, best soldiers, best logistic capabilities, and best generals/admrials.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


A war against China in 2000: The US collectively kicks itself in the walnuts and sentences nearby allies to death.

A war against China today: The US collectively kicks itself in the walnuts and sentences nearby allies to death.

The chances of the US going to war with China: Less than zero. There is nothing to be gained by doing so and absolutely everything to lose.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Especially when a key ally is parked less than a 1000 miles away of said country who has a lot of bad blood leftover from the previous war.
It is a good thing countries like Iran and North Korea do not have a defense system as powerful as the Chinese.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting RTSplayer:
China has about 70 submarines total, and about 10 nuclear.

They have about 70 combat ships, and 1 aircraft carrier.

guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/22/china-submarines -foreign-relations

The U.S. has roughly 600 combat ships and 12 active carriers, I think.

"The U.S. has 43 Los Angeles-class submarines on active duty and 19 retired" - Wikipedia.
We are da bomb..:)..I love our country...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting yqt1001:
A war with China in 2000: US would've won.

A war with China today: US could invade China, but face the same fate of the Germans in the USSR in the 1940s. It would be a long bloody war of attrition that would end in a stalemate. China can't launch an invasion on US soil, and the US wouldn't last a few years on Chinese soil. China has way more manpower at their disposal, and I am 100% sure they would launch live people out of cannons if they had to.


A war against China in 2000: The US collectively kicks itself in the walnuts and sentences nearby allies to death.

A war against China today: The US collectively kicks itself in the walnuts and sentences nearby allies to death.

The chances of the US going to war with China: Less than zero. There is nothing to be gained by doing so and absolutely everything to lose.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Especially when a key ally is parked less than a 1000 miles away of said country who has a lot of bad blood leftover from the previous war.
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China has about 70 submarines total, and about 10 nuclear.

They have about 70 combat ships, and 1 aircraft carrier.

guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/22/china-submarines -foreign-relations

The U.S. has roughly 600 combat ships and 12 active carriers, I think.

"The U.S. has 43 Los Angeles-class submarines on active duty and 19 retired" - Wikipedia.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting SPLbeater:


so is it cold in china too? how has your weather today been? i dont know about you, but its been cold here!
It is 22 degrees here blowin 15 to 30..It is cold and this is the coldest air of the year so far.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting SPLbeater:


i measured a wind gust to 16.3 knots(18.8mph) earlier when i went walking with my dad. pretty windy out there 2day
where you running at the time??
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Conflict, conflict, conflict.
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Quoting islander101010:
guaranteed they'd zero in on the boston garden the taiwanese american is ruling the court
The Chinese are a ancient civilization that has been around a very long time. They are an intelligent race with many ingenious inventions to there credit. I say that they are not to be underestimated in any way, shape or form..Just my harmless opinion..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I have a friend who has war simulation software. He inputs the military data for the nations and then runs 1000 sims, slightly changing a few factors each time. U.S. beats china 87% of the time, and 13% of the time in less than a month.


Great movie, have it play tic tac toe.
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Quoting hydrus:
You have superb knowledge on this subject..:)


I have a friend who has war simulation software. He inputs the military data for the nations and then runs 1000 sims, slightly changing a few factors each time. U.S. beats china 87% of the time, and 13% of the time in less than a month.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

THUNDERSNOW?!


Like a carbon copy of my reaction.
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Numbers advantage?



Hmmm...

How many infantry do you suppose those two shots from the "shotgun" variant would kill?

How many tanks? (the shrapnel will be moving with a muzzle velocity of 10 to 20 times a rifle...)

Max range 220 nautical miles for the 64MJ version.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We have more and better nuclear subs....
You have superb knowledge on this subject..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
So it just decided to drop 10 degrees in 45 minutes and a thundersnow squall is moving through. It's pretty freaking cool.

THUNDERSNOW?!
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Quoting hydrus:
Your map is great, but China has a very formidable fleet of nuclear subs that at the very least could kill millions.
guaranteed they'd zero in on the boston garden the taiwanese american is ruling the court
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U.S. vs. China Military Comparison Chart

Military Manpower Available: 145,212,012 U.S. 749,610,775 China
Aircraft Carriers: 11 U.S. 1 China
Submarines: 75 U.S. 63 China
Total Aircraft: 18,234 U.S. 5,176 China
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
So it just decided to drop 10 degrees in 45 minutes and a thundersnow squall is moving through. It's pretty freaking cool.
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epidemic in latin america? kind of wierd its summer time that region of the world sunny and dry generally until april may
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


We have more and better nuclear subs....


ssshhhhhhhhh....

let me tell you how cold its been today xD

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting hydrus:
Your map is great, but China has a very formidable fleet of nuclear subs that at the very least could kill millions.


so is it cold in china too? how has your weather today been? i dont know about you, but its been cold here!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Local NWS here in Lincoln, IL has says the system will be weakening and becoming an open wave as it passes by. Still early at least, they wont know for sure until cyclogenesis forms east of the Rockies, although they said the mid levels of this particular system is quit weak. I'd be tickled pink if we could just get a good 3-6 inch snow event. I've measured 4.5" total from about 4 different l inch storms this season here in my locale, typical average for us is 25 inches. ..sigh...
I saw the open wave forecast too..If the return flow becomes rich enough, there is a possibility of a larger and more significant system. The models will have a better grasp on this in a couple days.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting hydrus:
Your map is great, but China has a very formidable fleet of nuclear subs that at the very least could kill millions.


We have more and better nuclear subs....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting SPLbeater:
Is this what that guy was talking about, Brazilian low off the coast?

Maybe not


that's it! you got it
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
What would probably end up happening is the U.S. just bombs the mess out of the Chinese Navy (which has 1 aircraft carrier to the U.S.s 12), then proceed to take out the air force using carriers as bases. They would then launch ground forces and push in 50 miles or so, taking out the coast (and the largest population, manufacturing, and exporting area of China) then dig in and let China try to storm our trenches and wipe them out when they counterattack.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Just made this map in 5 minutes....
Your map is great, but China has a very formidable fleet of nuclear subs that at the very least could kill millions.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Maybe its working so lets not stop now!

I seen some cumulus clouds today.

DId i mention it was cold outside?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Is this what that guy was talking about, Brazilian low off the coast?

Maybe not
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting hydrus:
There will be a low in the gulf to help pull moisture into the mid-week system.


Local NWS here in Lincoln, IL has says the system will be weakening and becoming an open wave as it passes by. Still early at least, they wont know for sure until cyclogenesis forms east of the Rockies, although they said the mid levels of this particular system is quit weak. I'd be tickled pink if we could just get a good 3-6 inch snow event. I've measured 4.5" total from about 4 different 1 inch storms this season here in my locale, typical average for us is 25 inches. ..sigh...
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JASMINE
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting yqt1001:


So then why does infantry exist today then if it is "useless in modern warfare"?


Ask our braindead commanders.


Really, it's because of Geneva Convention.

Since we handcuff ourselves, we need men to go search house to house for terrorists and other war criminals in order to "arrest" them and bring them to trial, which is not only ridiculous, but insane, since this gives up all of the technological advantages gained by the navy and air power.


In short, our military strategists are both out-dated and handcuffed by international law which is not up-to-date with dealing with situations such as suicide bombing terrorists, and the two-faced nature of Islam.

"We're on your side," they say, but really we know they support the terrorist, we just can't "prove" it...

Then you end up having to give enemy combatants more rights than your own citizens and soldiers, again, due to Geneva convention.


But what I said was correct.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.