My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 470 - 420

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:38 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Hangin' in there KEEPER.
we are all just hangin in there Gro
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
469. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:35 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting caneswatch:


If only the world can learn that message.


we will
no fate
but that
which we make
for ourselves
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
468. Grothar
2:34 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how are ya Gro


Hangin' in there KEEPER.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
467. caneswatch
2:31 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I was young when I saw it the first time, but went back and watched it when I was older. Pretty hard to miss the message in that flick. :)


If only the world can learn that message.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
466. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:22 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
452. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 1:45 AM GMT on February 12, 2012 +0

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How sad....Whitney Houston has passed away.

Link

LA reporter @DavidBegnaud tweets
LA County Coroner says Whitney Houston's death has not been reported to our office




Whitney Houston died in Beverly Hills hotel room
February 11, 2012 | 5:41 pm 40036



Singer Whitney Houston died Saturday in Beverly Hills, according to law enforcement sources.

Authorities are trying to determine a cause of death. [Updated at 5:46 p.m.: She was found in the Beverly Hilton Hotel, where emergency medical personnel were called sometime Saturday, said the sources, who asked to remain anonymous because the investigation is ongoing.]

Houston, 48, was in the Los Angeles area for a musical tribute to music executive Clive Davis and had performed and spoken to reporters earlier in the week.

Photos: Notable deaths of 2012

The performer had drug and alcohol problems for years, and in May her spokeswoman said she was going back to rehab.

Publicist Kristen Foster told the Associated Press on Saturday that Houston had died but did not provide further details.

According to AP:

confirmed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
465. washingtonian115
2:20 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Winds are strong outside at the moment.Went out just a few moments ago to pick some dinner up for the kids and almost had gotten blown away.The wind literally took my breath away.It's like a tropical storm outside right now minus the rain might I add.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17475
464. Xyrus2000
2:19 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting caneswatch:


One of the best movies there is.


I was young when I saw it the first time, but went back and watched it when I was older. Pretty hard to miss the message in that flick. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1552
463. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:13 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


What a coincidence. Our youngest is called KEEPER.
how are ya Gro
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
462. caneswatch
2:12 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Really? No one here has seen Wargames?


One of the best movies there is.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
461. marsHen
2:09 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
with reference to the water temps in the GoM, last week the temps were ranging from the mid to upper 60's around the suwannee river delta. pretty warm for february.
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 848 Comments: 135
460. wunderweatherman123
2:00 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
isee giovanna weakened to a min cat 3 but she is looking a little nicer than before the EWRC is probably over
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
459. TheoJesse
1:56 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


you do know thats decades old right

SPL
I lived through the cold war. This kind of thing was common place in those times. I got cold chills listening. When the Berlin Wall came down, Ronald Regan Became my all time hero.
Jesse
Member Since: September 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
458. FLWeatherFreak91
1:53 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
DEFINITELY avoiding a freeze tonight. I think the models underestimated the warmth of the Gulf and the westerly winds. The 1-2am update from the NWS will undoubtedly include warmer lows for tomorrow morning.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
457. WxGeekVA
1:53 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


you do know thats decades old right


Yeah but it's awesome....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
456. FLWeatherFreak91
1:49 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting marsHen:
still 50F here in north florida. I'm thinking it's not going to get as cold as was forecast.. the wind's pretty stiff and chilly, but it's warm otherwise. clear,( stars are great!), but can radiational cooling take us down to the mid-20's from here? esp. with this wind?
That's what I'm discussing with Jesse right now. And this isn't a radiational cooling event, but rather an advection cooling event.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
455. FLWeatherFreak91
1:48 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting TheoJesse:

I'm right outside of Mobile, Al. The temp has dropped from 51 to 41 degrees in the last three hours.
It's headed your way.
Jesse
Well it better hurry up and get here if the NWS forecast is to verify.

It seems the forecast is always too cold in these situations. They should look back on historical forecast errors and adjust accordingly.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
454. marsHen
1:48 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
still 50F here in north florida. I'm thinking it's not going to get as cold as was forecast.. the wind's pretty stiff and chilly, but it's warm otherwise. clear,( stars are great!), but can radiational cooling take us down to the mid-20's from here? esp. with this wind?
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 848 Comments: 135
453. Grothar
1:45 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my sons name is joshua


What a coincidence. Our youngest is called KEEPER.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
452. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:45 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How sad....Whitney Houston has passed away.

Link


LA reporter @DavidBegnaud tweets
LA County Coroner says Whitney Houston's death has not been reported to our office




Whitney Houston died in Beverly Hills hotel room
February 11, 2012 | 5:41 pm 40036



Singer Whitney Houston died Saturday in Beverly Hills, according to law enforcement sources.

Authorities are trying to determine a cause of death. [Updated at 5:46 p.m.: She was found in the Beverly Hilton Hotel, where emergency medical personnel were called sometime Saturday, said the sources, who asked to remain anonymous because the investigation is ongoing.]

Houston, 48, was in the Los Angeles area for a musical tribute to music executive Clive Davis and had performed and spoken to reporters earlier in the week.

Photos: Notable deaths of 2012

The performer had drug and alcohol problems for years, and in May her spokeswoman said she was going back to rehab.

Publicist Kristen Foster told the Associated Press on Saturday that Houston had died but did not provide further details.

According to AP:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
451. SPLbeater
1:40 AM GMT on February 12, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
OMG LISTEN!!!!


you do know thats decades old right
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No way the temps drop as low as the NWS gridded forecast for the Tampa Bay Area tonight... Temperatures have failed to drop off after sundown and the winds are still westerly.

I'm right outside of Mobile, Al. The temp has dropped from 51 to 41 degrees in the last three hours.
It's headed your way.
Jesse
Member Since: September 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
No way the temps drop as low as the NWS gridded forecast for the Tampa Bay Area tonight... Temperatures have failed to drop off after sundown and the winds are still westerly.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
I'll be really glad when hurricane season comes around so that people will stop with that crazy war talking.Might I also add that you all have been bringing up politics a lot lately....Only four more months....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17475
OMG LISTEN!!!!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Earlier i gave my parents a basic weather quiz. nothing super advanced, just a little bit more then then average person would know. the last 2 involed atmospheric conditons on what develops lol.

Dad made a 100...

Mom made a 66 LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
How sad....Whitney Houston has passed away.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Not now Joshua.
my sons name is joshua
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting Skyepony:


Looking at that link some of the correlations to 1957 make sense.
Yes indeed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


The singularity speaks to us, from the past..
our past will become our future
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Dover AFB
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The singularity speaks to us, from the past..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Forgot one:

Win: Nuclear Annihilation of all hostiles:

Pros: No war for a very, very, very long time
Cons: Everyone is dead.


I didn't forget it.

It's just obvious, so not much worth mentioning.

China has a minimum deterance policy, which means they hope a few nukes prevent anyone from messing with them.


the U.S. and Russia each have an "assured destruction" policy.

This means each country made enough WMD that they will be able to wipe the other country out even if they are wiped out first.

See, not only does each country have enough bombs to annihilate one another. They each have enough bombs BURIED in bunkers to annihilate one another again after they're annihilated the first time.

The cold war era was nuts.

They had scenarios of drilling under mountains and storing nukes with large drills, which would wait till all the enemy nukes detonated, then pop up and launch another volley of our own nukes at the enemies...then there was the nuclear submarines, etc.

I don't know what the exact numbers are, but I think we once had around 30,000 of 20 megaton warheads, not counting all the other nuke bombs. That number might be the total of all nukes. It's not completely declassified.

But hey, we made enough nerve gas and bio weapons to kill everything on earth several times as well. God only knows where all this stuff is stored, because much of it still exists.

We probably still have several hundred or several thousand kiloton bombs which are small enough to fit on a Tomahawk missile as well, because it's transparently declared specs say so...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
not sure but if you look at the radar out in the chesapeke bay it almost looks a if there is a bay effect snow happening. The water is very warm and the wind direction is a perfect nnw direction extending the length from baltimore all the way into the bay...Has this happened before???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
437. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nigel20:
ok thanks much.


Looking at that link some of the correlations to 1957 make sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
This is true...I just do not like the idea of those countries having that kind of weaponry.
I don't like the idea of any country having that kind of weaponry. That includes those nations with people in power who have in their heads the idea that some Supreme Being has endowed them with eternal greatness that guarantees victory over their enemies.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Reminds me of Isabel that hit the East Coast last season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I would say you have an equal chance at guessing with a coin toss if you're looking that far out. :)
Yeah guess you're right..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You can't fight a war against an ideal. You will lose, no matter how many bombs you throw at it.

Indiscriminate bombing of helpless nations is not only ridiculously inhumane, utterly pointless as well. By your logic, we should never negotiate in hostage situations, just kill them all as it will teach future hostage takers a lesson. I can guarantee that the vast majority of people want to have nothing to do with terrorists, nor particularly enjoy being carpet bombed as a penalty for the crimes of a few rich and powerful psychopathic jackasses.

Fortunately, most world leaders are beyond the tyrannical stage of "Do what I want or I'll bomb you to hell!". That may work in your RTS games, but it is a sick and twisted philosophy in the real world. For fig's sake, they're human beings too.



The Nazi's were human beings too.

Yet there were countless of them who were "in the know" about the extermination camps, and could have and should have rebelled against their leaders, and didn't.

If half the Germans had any sense of morality, they would have rebelled against the other half, but that didn't happen, now did it? Well, there were some, but seriously?

All "human beings," even as they operated death camps...death camps that Muslim "human beings" in the middle east in Iran,a nd even in Iraq and Afghanistan that we just "liberated" continue to deny existed.




You say "you can't fight a war against an ideal".

Well, then the west is doomed to always be in these stupid cycles of "regime change" in the middle east, since the ideal is precisely the problem, which nobody admits.

If their religion didn't command them to kill Christians, Jews, and other "infidels" then they probably wouldn't be a threat, and we wouldn't have fought most of the world's conflicts of the past 60 years.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
Had I not visited the blog comments today I might have forgotten to return Dr. Strangelove to Blockbuster.


It's a good thing too. You know how Blockbuster is always after our precious bodily fluids.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1552
Quoting nigel20:
What do you guys think about a remergence of la nina. Later in the year after the end of the current la nina?


I would say you have an equal chance at guessing with a coin toss if you're looking that far out. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1552
Quoting WxGeekVA:


These "war games" do not include the use of nuclear weapons.....


Ah, I see. You're definition of "win" is limited to just who can win militarily. That's a very narrow and ultimately useless metric to define winning. I would think that our post cold war endeavors would have demonstrated this quite effectively by now.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1552
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
Had I not visited the blog comments today I might have forgotten to return Dr. Strangelove to Blockbuster.


Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting RTSplayer:


Defitions of Win, as it regards warfare:

win - nobody goes to war.

Pros: nobody dies.
Cons: doesn't work. Bad guys don't follow this.


Win - make peace and negotiate, etc.
Pros: nobody dies.
Cons: Muslims define "peace" as the unconditional annihilation of infidels, so this is chasing one's tail.

Win - "whoever wins makes the rules". (which is what happened in "real" wars, like when we declared independence, or WWI and WWII.)

Pros: they are no longer a threat for a very, very long time.
Cons: violates geneva convention, but then again, if you win at least you live.

i.e. if Germany had won WWII, they probably would have systematically exterminate all Jews, Gypsies, and other non-arians they deemed "undesirables" in every nation.

They probably would have backstabbed Japan and Italy eventually and exterminate them too.

After all, Germany backstabbed almost everyone anyway. When they make a treaty, it was practically a declaration of war!


Forgot one:

Win: Nuclear Annihilation of all hostiles:

Pros: No war for a very, very, very long time
Cons: Everyone is dead.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Had I not visited the blog comments today I might have forgotten to return Dr. Strangelove to Blockbuster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


yes..
ok thanks much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Even if they did, no way they could hang with us. Best equipment, best soldiers, best logistic capabilities, and best generals/admrials.
This is true...I just do not like the idea of those countries having that kind of weaponry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I think that we have very different ideas of what "win" means.


Defitions of Win, as it regards warfare:

win - nobody goes to war.

Pros: nobody dies.
Cons: doesn't work. Bad guys don't follow this.


Win - make peace and negotiate, etc.
Pros: nobody dies.
Cons: Muslims define "peace" as the unconditional annihilation of infidels, so this is chasing one's tail.

Win - "whoever wins makes the rules". (which is what happened in "real" wars, like when we declared independence, or WWI and WWII.)

Pros: they are no longer a threat for a very, very long time.
Cons: violates geneva convention, but then again, if you win at least you live.

i.e. if Germany had won WWII, they probably would have systematically exterminate all Jews, Gypsies, and other non-arians they deemed "undesirables" in every nation.

They probably would have backstabbed Japan and Italy eventually and exterminate them too.

After all, Germany backstabbed almost everyone anyway. When they make a treaty, it was practically a declaration of war!
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
423. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nigel20:
What's up guys?...this is my first time on since last year, I would like to know if there has been three consecutive years of el nino or la nina?


yes..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. Skyepony (Mod)
I'll go with ~115kts when approaching landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:


How about a nice game of chess?


im playing chess rite now! kinda good too lol...
Quoting nigel20:
What's up guys?...this is my first time on since last year, I would like to know if there has been three consecutive years of el nino or la nina?


If i am not mistaken we are still in a La Nina, but it probably wont last throughout summer.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
What do you guys think about a remergence of la nina. Later in the year after the end of the current la nina?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 470 - 420

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast