My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 920 - 870

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

920. hydrus
4:22 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35%uFFFD 13.580, W 85%uFFFD 5.496

Just a minor event
When I first studied nuclear power in science class, there was 132 nuclear power in the U.S. - Illinois had the most with 15...These are the incidences we have had since 1979.. Plant Location Description Cost
(in millions
2006 $)
Nuclear power plant accidents in the U.S. with more than US$140 million in property damage[50][51] March 28, 1979 Three Mile Island Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania Loss of coolant and partial core meltdown, see Three Mile Island accident and Three Mile Island accident health effects US$2,400
March 9, 1985 Browns Ferry Athens, Alabama Instrumentation systems malfunction during startup, which led to suspension of operations at all three Units US$1,830
April 11, 1986 Pilgrim Plymouth, Massachusetts Recurring equipment problems force emergency shutdown of Boston Edison%u2019s plant US$1,001
March 31, 1987 Peach Bottom Delta, Pennsylvania Units 2 and 3 shutdown due to cooling malfunctions and unexplained equipment problems US$400
December 19, 1987 Nine Mile Point Scriba, New York Malfunctions force Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation to shut down Unit 1 US$150
February 20, 1996 Millstone Waterford, Connecticut Leaking valve forces shutdown of Units 1 and 2, multiple equipment failures found US$254
September 2, 1996 Crystal River Crystal River, Florida Balance-of-plant equipment malfunction forces shutdown and extensive repairs US$384
February 16, 2002 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio Severe corrosion of control rod forces 24-month outage US$143
February 1, 2010 Vermont Yankee Vernon, Vermont Deteriorating underground pipes leak radioactive tritium into groundwater supplies US$700--Wiki/
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
919. hydrus
3:58 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Long range GFS is going to cause me to lose my mind...
Easy..Breath in through the nose and out through the mouth..Ten times, and you will be good as new Geek.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
918. hydrus
3:54 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35� 13.580, W 85� 5.496

Just a minor event
Do you know what happened? That is a county next to mine.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21751
917. RitaEvac
3:16 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Everything is fine out there, in the good ol USA

12,844.97
+43.74
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
916. Neapolitan
3:07 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:



And they are protesting because? Because Government is taking away benefits they simply can't afford. Sounds like the US is gonna be facing the same stuff in a few years.
Bottom line: austerity programs don't work. Those who constantly call for them exhibit a clear lack of economic common sense.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13604
915. RitaEvac
3:04 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Supposed to be boomers popping up along the TX coast later today, I'm waiting
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
914. RTSplayer
2:58 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
The U.S. is headed for a rude awakening too.

The baby boomers, etc, most especially.

Back when Social Security was invented, the plan was basicly that each generation would live off the backs of the future generations, but back then, the population growth rate was more like 4 or more children per woman.

Example: I actually have 16 great aunts and uncles on just one quarter of my family tree, and several of them had 4 or 5 kids each.


So you can see how gramps could be confident that the contribution of his 4 to 10 kids was going to pay for SS at the end of his life.

Even retirement plans such as stocks and mutual funds still basicly work(ed) on the same principle: live off the future population growth, and rely on each generation being twice as big as the previous.

In the past 30 years, population growth dropped to 2.1 children per woman, and in the past several years it has dropped to less than 2, I think.


So what this means is that for every 2 retirees, drawing SS and pensions, including state and federal retirements, there will be only 1 worker in the nation.

Additionally, many government retirement plans are paying as much as 90% of income in retirement...for life! With life expectancy increasing 1 year per decade, this means the cost of government wages and salaries is effectively doubled, if not a bit more than that.

Not only will it not work, but they basicly cannot retire....ever...nor can anyone else.

In fact, most people on retirement now need to get off it and go back to work.

In some cases, it's not legal, and they'll never get the votes to do it, but the governments need to abolish, even retroactively, the entire retirement system.

But that's not going to happen until all hell breaks loose.


Plus there isn't any work anyway, because automation and IT has replaced so many jobs.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
913. RitaEvac
2:49 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, this.

Only a couple percent of the fuel is actually depleted in a "spent" fuel rod.

If we did everything else like this, nothing at all would work...


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35 13.580, W 85 5.496

Just a minor event
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
912. GeorgiaStormz
2:45 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Someone over there has to know how to put out a Greece fire.


Ha-ha :)
I never really realized how useful Google Earth was for viewing current conditions(Until all the weather stations in the area have been knocked out).
At 1400 utc, winds were around 26 mph along the madagascar coast
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
911. RTSplayer
2:43 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


So in the meantime, we end up with piles of spent fuel that, ironically, still contains plenty of fuel for electrical production.




Yes, this.

Only a couple percent of the fuel is actually depleted in a "spent" fuel rod.

If we did everything else like this, nothing at all would work...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
910. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:39 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Madagascar Meteorological Services

NR19/09 13/02/2012 1300 UTC
System CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
Name GIOVANNA
Position NEAR 18° 7 S - 51° 5 E
Estimated minimum central Pressure 932 HPA
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the center 105 KT (195 KM/H)
Gust maxi 145 KT (270 KM/H)
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 6.0+
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
909. RTSplayer
2:38 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
its terrible over there, so much destruction, but the people are suffering


Employees in Europe have obscene amounts of guaranteed payed vacation time and stuff like that, which Americans don't get, but this drives up costs to the employer immensely. This is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen, because in France everyone gets several weeks of pay-cation per year. I don't know how much it is in Greece.


They also get a lot more free medical services and internet services which the government pays.

Additionally, the price of gasoline is crippling in Europe, since many of the nations don't have strong oil reserves of their own, AND they have the ridiculous taxation on fuels, which they need to pay for all the services they give.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
908. RitaEvac
2:37 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:



And they are protesting because? Because Government is taking away benefits they simply can't afford. Sounds like the US is gonna be facing the same stuff in a few years.


Months
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
907. Xyrus2000
2:34 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
building nuke plants all over the world have they ever figured what to do with the spent fuel? throw it in a hole? stumble upon reports a nuke problem today in the us


Well that's really the stupid part now isn't it? Spent fuel actually still contains A LOT of fuel, just not enough to maintain the level of output for the reactor. The smart thing to do (and is done by other countries) would be to use breeder reactors (which can also produce electricity) to reprocess spent fuel into useable fuel again. Reprocessing can be performed several times, and greatly reduces the amount of waste produced by reactors overall. But the US banned that over 3 decades ago due to complete idiocy.

You see, breeder reactors can produce small amounts of bomb grade fissile material, and the fear was that terrorists (yes terrorists) would be able to steal this material. Of course, the idea is shear idiocy. The material isn't sitting in a nice little canister somewhere; it's mixed in with the reprocessed fuel. It takes a considerable amount of technology to separate out the bomb grade material, which only exists in countries like the US, France, Germany, etc. . So even if someone could steal enough fuel to get enough material to make a bomb (impossible without a trained crew to handle nuclear material), you still need a full scale nuclear processing center to refine enough material for even a small bomb. And that assumes you even have the technology to make a bomb work in the first place.

So in the meantime, we end up with piles of spent fuel that, ironically, still contains plenty of fuel for electrical production.


Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1559
906. TampaSpin
2:34 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Buildings set ablaze, thousands protesting, rioting in Greece



And they are protesting because? Because Government is taking away benefits they simply can't afford. Sounds like the US is gonna be facing the same stuff in a few years.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
905. GeoffreyWPB
2:33 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Buildings set ablaze, thousands protesting, rioting in Greece


Someone over there has to know how to put out a Greece fire.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11425
904. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:32 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 14 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (993 hPa) located at 21.9S 176.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Convection has also reduced significantly near the low level circulation center for the last 24 hours. The system lies under an upper trough center in a low sheared environment. Not much environmental steering. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.0, pt=2.0 and MET=2.0. Final Dvorak based on DT, CI was held at 3.0, 1.0 higher than Final Dvorak. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on this system being a cyclone in the next 72 hours and with a northeast movement.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.1S 176.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.7S 176.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.4S 177.4W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
903. LargoFl
2:25 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the models hold up then C and N FL should get a lot of rain starting Friday and continuing thru the weekend. S FL however may not get much from this at all as this front appears it wants to hang up right over C FL.
local weatherguy said as much, but we can use the rain, glad it will be warming up, was pretty cool here this morning, spotty frost as well
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
902. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (939 hPa) located at 18.8S 51.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center extending up to 145 NM in the northern semi-circle and the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.1S 49.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.1S 45.4E - Depression sur Terre
48 HRS: 22.7S 40.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.6S 37.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Classical satellite imagery show a presentation that has not evolved for last 6 hours. Average DT on 6 hours is 5.5+. Winds radius have been recalibrated with 0526z ASCAT swath. Without recent microwave picture, it is difficult to follow eyewall replacement cycle that was visible this morning.

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westward to west-southwestward track today and then southwestward Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.

Before its landfall, Giovanna should undergo a bit stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow. However, it is likely that intensity weakens a bit before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

The landfall is expected within a 80 km radius from Andovoranto. Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly within the next hours between Sainte-Marie island and Mananjary with intensifying rains progressing inland this night. Winds will increase, mainly over the coast within a 150 km radius from landfall where gusts should exceed 100 km/h. Gusts should exceed 180 km/h within a 70 km radius, mainly south from landfall. Storm surge between 2.5 to 3.0 meters are expected south from landfall area. All inhabitants of this sectors are invited to closely follow the arrival of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected in the official RSMC forecast.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
901. Neapolitan
2:23 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm looking on Google Earth and it looks like the storm is going towards a very sparsley populated area. I can't find a single community.


strike that. Google earth was acting screwy. Looks like there is a small city that could be in the path.


There aren't many larger coastal cities in Giovanna's projected path, true, so storm surge may not be a huge issue (fingers crossed). But, still, there are a number of places that could be in trouble. For instance, Madagascar's main port city of Toamasina (pop. 200K) may catch a good part of Giovanna's northern (weak) side; Ambohitompoina (40K), Antanifotsy (70K), Fianarantsoa (145K), and the capital city of Antananarivo (1.4 million) are some of the more densely populated locations sure to suffer to some degree.

As others have noted, Madagascar is a hilly island that has been severely deforested (satellite images of the island are very depressing), so the many inches of rain that are expected to be dumped across the island have an alarmingly high chance of causing a large loss of life.

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13604
900. LargoFl
2:22 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Buildings set ablaze thousands protesting in Greece
its terrible over there, so much destruction, but the people are suffering
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
899. RitaEvac
2:21 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Buildings set ablaze, thousands protesting, rioting in Greece
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
898. BobinTampa
2:06 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
I'm looking on Google Earth and it looks like the storm is going towards a very sparsley populated area. I can't find a single community.


strike that. Google earth was acting screwy. Looks like there is a small city that could be in the path.


Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
897. StormTracker2K
1:53 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting severstorm:

I,m glad someone got the rain. I had .28, better than nothing. I hope this weekend system plans out.Way to dry with all this freezing temps.not a good situation with fire. Had a fire in west Pasco on saturday.


If the models hold up then C and N FL should get a lot of rain starting Friday and continuing thru the weekend. S FL however may not get much from this at all as this front appears it wants to hang up right over C FL.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
896. RTSplayer
1:52 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
building nuke plants all over the world have they ever figured what to do with the spent fuel? throw it in a hole? stumble upon reports a nuke problem today in the us


Dig a hole in the oceanic plate at the bottom of the Challenger Deep and bury it there.

The plate moves 7 inches per year, which means it would subduct under pretty quickly under the other plate, maximizing shielding, but would not move fast enough to encounter melted rock for many thousands of years, maybe even millions. At 7 inches per year, it would take 9000 years to move 1 mile. The plate would need to move several hundred miles before the radioactive material encountered melting conditions.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
895. GeoffreyWPB
1:47 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL CONTINUING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NEW GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT
DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND HAS IT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY. WL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND
CONTINUES HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN COULD BE INDICATED IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11425
894. islander101010
1:42 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
building nuke plants all over the world have they ever figured what to do with the spent fuel? throw it in a hole? stumble upon reports a nuke problem today in the us
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4885
893. ILwthrfan
1:34 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Dry air is really starting to eat away at the west side of the CDO. I would expect weakening next advisory.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
892. severstorm
1:31 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good news is that I finally picked up on some heavy rain last Friday infact .96 fell in the rain gauge at Wekiva Springs.

I,m glad someone got the rain. I had .28, better than nothing. I hope this weekend system plans out.Way to dry with all this freezing temps.not a good situation with fire. Had a fire in west Pasco on saturday.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
891. Tropicsweatherpr
1:27 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
See Text for now, but will be upgraded to a Slight risk eventually.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OUT OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO A COUPLE OF
LINGERING DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. SO
THE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIFT OUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE AND EXTENT OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND MANNER IN WHICH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE ROCKIES...AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS RESULT IN AN UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THE 13/00Z NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 13/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO FAVOR AN AREA FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND
CONSISTENCIES FROM THEIR PRIOR RUNS...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS AT
LEAST A BIT MORE PROBABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WOULD SEEM TO OFFER GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.


..KERR.. 02/13/2012


Do you have the link to the graphic?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14559
890. RTSplayer
1:18 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Advance Dvorak Technique (12S)

2012FEB13
070000
T6.6 CI
912.5
129.6 knots

T5.9 Final Dvorak
T7.3 Adjusted
T7.3 Raw
EYE Scene
Weakening ON
Rapid Dissipation OFF
-18.52 south
-52.48 east


Interesting.

The pressure estimate dropped so much, like 24mb since late last night, even as the wind really only came up 5mph.

But that estimate is in the category 5 range for pressure, In the atlantic, but I think with a basin adjustment is exactly on the borderline of 4 and 5.

But the raw T-numbers are cat 5 range too.

I really didnt expect the pressure to drop 24mb.

Still think it's getting too close to land to keep intensifying, but well, I'm reminded of Andrew unfortunately, if the pressure estimate is correct, it's actually stronger than Andrew right now.

I have a bad feeling now, because if this turns out to be one of those storms that keeps intensifying right up to landfall, it could be bad indeed.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
889. GeorgiaStormz
1:09 PM GMT on February 13, 2012


Good Morning
Hoping those areas of sleet/snow ahead of the main precipitation mass will saturate the atmosphere some ahead of schedule.(So I can get more snow!)

And pray for the people of Madagascar, Giovanna will probably pass near the capital.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
888. Neapolitan
1:09 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
The current--and ominous--Wundermap showing Giovanna, with the capital city of Antananarivo indicated:

Uh-oh
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13604
887. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:03 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
886. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:51 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
See Text for now, but will be upgraded to a Slight risk eventually.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OUT OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO A COUPLE OF
LINGERING DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. SO
THE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIFT OUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE AND EXTENT OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND MANNER IN WHICH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE ROCKIES...AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS RESULT IN AN UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THE 13/00Z NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 13/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO FAVOR AN AREA FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND
CONSISTENCIES FROM THEIR PRIOR RUNS...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS AT
LEAST A BIT MORE PROBABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WOULD SEEM TO OFFER GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.


..KERR.. 02/13/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
885. StormTracker2K
12:50 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Good news is that I finally picked up on some heavy rain last Friday infact .96 fell in the rain gauge at Wekiva Springs.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
884. Tropicsweatherpr
12:47 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
WTIO30 FMEE 130653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 260 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ET CI=6.0
0333Z TRMM MW PICTURE SHOWS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
ONGOING. IT WAS ALREADY VISIBLE ON RADAR OF LA REUNION FOR A FEW HOURS.
AVERAGE DT ON 6 HOURS IS 5.5. INTERNAL WINDS FIELDS MIGHT A BIT CHANGEWITH THIS ONGOING CYCLE (WEAKER INTENSITY BUT STORM FORCE WINDS
RADIUS LARGER).
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH. THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TUESDAY AS THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO STRONGER EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THAT IS IN THE
SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE FOR A
SYSTEM LIKE GIOVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THIS CONSTRAINT, IT IS LIKELY
THAT INTENSITY MIGHT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
THE EXPECTED LANDFALL IS WITHIN A 80 KM RADIUS FROM ANDOVORANTO.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITHIN THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE CLOSING OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ACCORDING TO LATEST ECMWF RUN THAT NOW SUGGESTS A RAPID
RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS AGAIN UPGRADED.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14559
883. StormTracker2K
12:46 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Models seem to agree on a very potent storm Saturday crossing FL from the Gulf. Could be a big rain maker and possibly a severe wx producer.





DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD GROW FOR DAY 4...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION.
AND POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC APPEARS LOW...AS A SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...AND SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY COMMENCES TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STALLING SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...
BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA /EQUIVALENT
30 PERCENT DAY 3/.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
882. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:43 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Giovanna is nearing landfall, will probably start going over land before I get home today at 3PM. It's still having troubles closing off that southwestern side with deep convection, which is keeping it from attaining Category 5 intensity. Nonetheless, it is still an extremely strong cyclone and will cause significant damage and loss of life in Madagascar. The country gets off bad with a tropical storm, and this is many, many times worse.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
881. WxGeekVA
12:02 PM GMT on February 13, 2012


Long range GFS is going to cause me to lose my mind...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
880. Tropicsweatherpr
11:44 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Hoping for the best for those folks over there as landfall appears will be in the nightime hours.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14559
879. severstorm
11:35 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Morning all, BRRRRR 24 here in Zephyrhills Fl. this am.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
878. aislinnpaps
11:28 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
My thoughts and prayers to those in Madagascar. Here in Louisiana it's actually spitting some sleet.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
877. KoritheMan
9:33 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
First rainbands beginning to move ashore. Heavy rains for sure, but we're probably still about 6-10 hours from the onset of tropical storm force winds:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21094
876. Ameister12
9:04 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Despite what may be affecting Giovanna, this thing will still be a devastating storm for Madagascar. It's getting to close for anything to significantly weaken it. I'm hoping for the best for Madagascar.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074
875. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:18 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 13 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (992 hPa) located at 22.0S 176.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Cloud tops warming Past 6 hours. Deep convection has decreased near the centre in the last 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the east of 250hpa Trough and south of an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Good outflow to the south and east but restricted elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly Deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.40 wrap, yielding DT=2.5. Final Dvorak based on DT, met and PT agree. CI=3.0 due to CI rules.

Dvorak: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.2S 176.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.7S 176.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
874. Boco12
7:44 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Wow, raw T's are now in the 7.2+ range, insane...
Praying for those down in Madagascar.
Member Since: July 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
873. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:32 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Advance Dvorak Technique (12S)

2012FEB13
070000
T6.6 CI
912.5
129.6 knots

T5.9 Final Dvorak
T7.3 Adjusted
T7.3 Raw
EYE Scene
Weakening ON
Rapid Dissipation OFF
-18.52 south
-52.48 east
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
872. weatherman566
7:27 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
EarthSky. org has been covering this storm since early this morning. What a beast!
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
871. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:19 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (937 hPa) located at 18.4S 52.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 175 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.8S 50.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.5S 47.2E - Depression sur Terre
48 HRS: 22.3S 41.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.4S 38.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================

0333z TRMM microwave picture shows that an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing. It was already visible on radar of la reunion for a few hours. Average DT on 6 hours is 5.5. Internal winds fields might a bit change with this ongoing cycle (weaker intensity but storm force winds radius larger).

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westward to west southwestward track today and then southwestward Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.

Later this afternoon, Giovanna should undergo stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow. However with the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle and this constraint, it is likely that intensity might continue to weaken before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

The expected landfall is within a 80 km radius from Andovoranto. Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly today within the potential landfall area. All inhabitants are invited to closely follow the closing of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. According to latest ECMWF run that now suggests a rapid re-intensification, the forecast intensity is again upgraded.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
870. aspectre
7:13 AM GMT on February 13, 2012
Giovanna is 400plus-mile radius huge. It's gonna hit the two most important cities in Madagascar.
And it's not threatening the FirstWorld or its major suppliers : nobody's covering it.
The function of the news media is to generate advertising revenue.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

Viewing: 920 - 870

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.