Fourth warmest January on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on February 08, 2012

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It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Twelve of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:

Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F

However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).


Figure 1. State-by-state rankings of temperatures for January 2012. Nine states had top-ten warmest Januarys on record, while no states had below-average temperatures in January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

28th driest January for the contiguous U.S.
The first week of January was almost precipitation-free across the entire contiguous U.S., but a series of storms over Texas, the Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest later in the month boosted precipitation totals enough to make January 2012 the 28th driest in the 118-year period of record. Remarkably, Texas had its 30th wettest January on record, and was the 2nd wettest state during the month. Texas also had a very wet December, their 19th wettest December. It is very rare for Texas to receive so much precipitation during a La Niña winter. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January - February 2010, during the last El Niño event.


Figure 2. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for January 2012. Three states had top-ten driest Januarys on record, while no states had a top-ten wettest January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

3rd least-snowy January
According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall.


Figure 3. The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day. Image credit: NASA.

Drought expands in January
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought--called D4 or exceptional drought--about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 32 percent at the beginning of January to 38 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.

2nd most January tornadoes on record
With 95 preliminary tornado reports, January 2012 is likely to end up with the 2nd most January tornadoes since 1950 (the record is 218, set in January 1999.)

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

A Foot of Snow (den117)
The winter in Marquette has been a mild one, but we still have a foot of snow on the ground.
A Foot of Snow
Avalanche (snodog)
Juneau had over a dozen avalanches on Thursday. Thane Rd, about a mile south of downtown was closed by one on Mt Roberts.
Avalanche
Contrasts (NicholasLee)
Looks ominous , but never turned into anything. Silver mountain, elevation 6300', with 6.5 feet of powder!
Contrasts
Houston Flood Day Skyline (SurfYak)
I shot this skyline during a short break in the rain today. We needed rain so badly here in Houston but we got too much of it all at once and now there's flooding all over the city! For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here. For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.
Houston Flood Day Skyline
Wind damage (clehouser)
Southwest Michigan first snow of 2012.
Wind damage

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553. washingtonian115
8:01 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW finally tomorrow night!!!!

Sh….....It isn't going to be nothing special.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
552. VAbeachhurricanes
5:18 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW finally tomorrow night!!!!

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
551. bluheelrtx
3:33 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting nofailsafe:


30 meters, 98 feet, puts nearly all of Houston under water all the way north (30 miles from downtown) to The Woodlands. It would end up becoming a coastal town...

And on the west side, Katy would be a coastal town as well, as the Addicks resevior merges with the GOM.
Member Since: November 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 228
550. aspectre
3:11 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
New Blog
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
549. LargoFl
3:01 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I agree with the AR4 projection being underestimates. There's been enough empirical evidence alone to show that things are happening much faster than anticipated. Chances are the AR5 ensembles will do a much better job in this regard. However I didn't want to use higher numbers until there was more agreement in this area as there is a lot of active research going on, and given the parameter space it's hard to tell which new scenarios are the "worst case" and "best case".
my area is 40' above sea level, my guess is, if this happens, most of my whole county will be new territory for the fish to swim in
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
548. hydrus
3:01 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
756 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.UPDATE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING TO NOSE INTO NW MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE THIS HOUR. AM SPREADING THE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE LATE MORNING PERIOD THAT WILL
INCLUDE NASHVILLE. STILL NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 08Z SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
TOP OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THIS MORNING, AND
GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE IN PLACE, THOSE PLACES MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20`S OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. THUS, LOOK FOR RAIN TO SWITCH BACK OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE LATE EVENING, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EAST OF
NASHVILLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
BE MET, SO AM NOT PLANNING ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO
BE FRIGID, WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES MAKE LITTLE RECOVERY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINTER WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LATER IN THE WEEK, EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ACTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
547. LargoFl
2:56 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's a normal thunderstorm here in FL. Infact many times last summer I got 6" in just a couple of hours from heavy summer storms. Looks as if C FL could get strong storms today by the way due to -12 to -14 degree temps in the mid atmosphere.

VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PULLS A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...-12C TO -14C...ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALONG WITH MORNING
SUN THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
yes cool front coming, going to knock us back down maybe 10 degree's or so, going to get windy i bet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
546. LargoFl
2:54 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It's this short wave that is going to light up C FL today.

50% rain chance by my area today and tonight, we can use the rain
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
545. StormTracker2K
1:45 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
It's this short wave that is going to light up C FL today.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
544. StormTracker2K
1:42 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
It would be something if these models pan out! Looks as if it's going to get active across FL next week.

GFS 16 Day Precip. Accum.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
543. RTSplayer
1:40 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I agree with the AR4 projection being underestimates. There's been enough empirical evidence alone to show that things are happening much faster than anticipated. Chances are the AR5 ensembles will do a much better job in this regard. However I didn't want to use higher numbers until there was more agreement in this area as there is a lot of active research going on, and given the parameter space it's hard to tell which new scenarios are the "worst case" and "best case".


It's probably more than official projections.

As I pointed out, the rate of net melting is increasing exponentially.

And you pointed out it can't do that forever. True.

But just a few more doublings every 5 to 10 years would make a huge difference.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
542. StormTracker2K
1:39 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

This was non tropical related, just a slow moving low pressure trough induced thunderstorms


That's a normal thunderstorm here in FL. Infact many times last summer I got 6" in just a couple of hours from heavy summer storms. Looks as if C FL could get strong storms today by the way due to -12 to -14 degree temps in the mid atmosphere.

VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PULLS A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...-12C TO -14C...ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALONG WITH MORNING
SUN THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
541. AussieStorm
1:08 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
we had 24" in two days because fay stalled overhd. e cen fl http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2 008)

This was non tropical related, just a slow moving low pressure trough induced thunderstorms
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
540. Grothar
12:33 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY.

Morning Geoff!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
539. GeoffreyWPB
12:07 PM GMT on February 10, 2012


A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10978
538. islander101010
12:01 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
I will post some pics soon of the flash flooding that occurred in Western Sydney last night after 4.29in of rain fell in 3 hrs.
we had 24" in two days because fay stalled overhd. e cen fl http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2 008)
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4333
537. AussieStorm
11:55 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
I will post some pics soon of the flash flooding that occurred in Western Sydney last night after 4.29in of rain fell in 3 hrs.

Here is a video from Sydney newspaper
VIDEO: Flooding in Sydney's West
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
536. AussieStorm
9:18 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
I will post some pics soon of the flash flooding that occurred in Western Sydney last night after 4.29in of rain fell in 3 hrs.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
535. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:15 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
19:00 PM NZDT February 10 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (965 hPa) located at 25.8S 172.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in the western quadrant
120 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
534. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:01 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 10 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (990 hPa) located at 15.3S 62.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.3S 61.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.1S 59.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.4S 56.8E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 17.3S 53.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

For the last 6 hours, system has intensified slowly, and always shows a central dense overcast pattern.

System is tracking west-southwestward on the northwestern edge of the low-mid level subtropical ridge situated in the south-east. Within the next 24 hours, system should keep this track.

On Saturday, it is expected to slow down a bit due to a weakness in the mid level anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 36 hours, track should recurve westward with the rebuilding of high pressures south-east of Madagascar. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track.

On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification up to Sunday. Oceanic heat potential is very good. Vertical wind shear is weak and divergence is good mainly southward. Poleward outflow channel is expected to improve within the next 36 hours, as the system is approaching of an upper level trough transiting in the south. On Monday, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. So intensity should reduce before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar, expected on Tuesday morning.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system. Official forecast track bring Giovanna very closely to Saint Brandon on Saturday in the morning.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
533. Quadrantid
5:51 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


At a cursory glance I believe you are correct on both points.


Thanks :) I'm not used to having the opportunity to see these things locally (only moved out here to upside-down land from the UK 18 months ago), so it's nice to be able to see them in real time :) Good to know I've learned a little from my lurking here :D
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
532. nofailsafe
5:46 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting JNCali:
a 30m rise would be apocalyptic, how many island nations would just be gone? I wonder if the Army Corp of Engineers already have future harbor/port locations picked out?


30 meters, 98 feet, puts nearly all of Houston under water all the way north (30 miles from downtown) to The Woodlands. It would end up becoming a coastal town. Beaumont and Lake Charles would be totally submerged. Corpus would be too. Trying to relocate upwards of five million people (in one state alone) does not a swell time make.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 941
531. KoritheMan
5:29 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting Quadrantid:
Here's something fun for you all, just happening at the moment north of Sydney -

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml

Two questions -- first, is that a small Derecho heading towards Newcastle (the storms really look like a bow echo, and have been moving in synch for the last hour or so, I think)...

second - is that right-moving supercell off short from Newcastle showing a hook? Looks it to me :)





At a cursory glance I believe you are correct on both points.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
530. Quadrantid
5:24 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Here's something fun for you all, just happening at the moment north of Sydney -

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml

Two questions -- first, is that a small Derecho heading towards Newcastle (the storms really look like a bow echo, and have been moving in synch for the last hour or so, I think)...

second - is that right-moving supercell off short from Newcastle showing a hook? Looks it to me :)



Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
529. KoritheMan
4:23 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Oh, and this year wasn't the first time Jose was puny...

Jose 1981


At least that one looked like a tropical storm.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
528. KoritheMan
4:22 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Why am I not surprised Giovanna intensified quicker than expected? With conditions as favorable as they are, intensification probably won't be slow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
527. aspectre
4:09 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
sigh...
"About 40 percent of Longmont High School students and staff tested for tuberculosis have had positive results, a Denver Public Health official said Wednesday. Dr. Randall Reves, director of the Denver Metro Tuberculosis Control Program, said that rate is unusual, but not unheard of.

Latent TB, unlike active TB, is not contagious. So far, the original case -- which was made public in early January -- is the only active case found in the school, Reves said. TB cannot be transmitted unless a patient is actively ill, he said.

Because the rate of latent TB being found at the school has been higher than expected in the first two groups of students and staff tested, Reves has decided to test everyone at the school."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
526. JNCali
4:03 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I'll be good until we hit about 30m of sea rise. After that, my house will be a submarine. :)
a 30m rise would be apocalyptic, how many island nations would just be gone? I wonder if the Army Corp of Engineers already have future harbor/port locations picked out?
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
525. WxGeekVA
4:01 AM GMT on February 10, 2012


What did this guy just forecast?

1:55
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
524. SPLbeater
4:00 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Well, goodnight all.

if anybody has a link to a radar image of North Carolina during the April 16th tornado outbreak, please post n my blog and i find in morning:)

bye yal!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
523. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:41 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'll see your Sacramento Seaport and raise you a Bay of London:

Link

Oh, and China isn't immune to it either...

Link


Wow! Looks like China will get a lot of new islands! ... The hard way!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
522. GeoffreyWPB
3:35 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

THE GFS 12Z RUN AT THIS TIME SHOW THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES TO GET
DOWN TO AROUND 1325-1330 AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TO
1340-1345 OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS
THAT THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET DOWN INTO THE
40S OVER MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN TURN WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL READINGS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S OVER THE MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE CWA
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
LOWS TO FALL DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WHERE THE LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10978
521. washingtonian115
3:27 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Wintry mix with little to no accumulation over the weekend, and the same again around Tuesday/Wednesday according to GFS and NAM. Longer range GFS has some more possible wintry mixes later on though I doubt much will become of it. The only heavy precip events I see are way out and the temps will be too warm to snow. :P
The trees don't seem to be minding this weather.They'll probally be budding early this year due to the mild winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
520. Xyrus2000
3:25 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'll see your Sacramento Seaport and raise you a Bay of London:

Link

Oh, and China isn't immune to it either...

Link


I'll be good until we hit about 30m of sea rise. After that, my house will be a submarine. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1452
519. Xyrus2000
3:20 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sue Palka is trying to hype a situation talking about a coastal storm may try and bring big snows to the D.C area.Please I've heard that before this winter.....Looks like we have another shot of snow come Tuesday.That however will be a wintery mix.


Wintry mix with little to no accumulation over the weekend, and the same again around Tuesday/Wednesday according to GFS and NAM. Longer range GFS has some more possible wintry mixes later on though I doubt much will become of it. The only heavy precip events I see are way out and the temps will be too warm to snow. :P
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1452
518. WxGeekVA
3:16 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
452 aspectre "A naive 7meter-maximum coastal flooding map of Florida...
...a naive 13meter-minimum coastal flooding map..."
453 PlazaRed "It gets even more interesting when you look a bit further afield to New Orleans"

Thanks. Clicked on my links, then realized that the address didn't contain map-scale info. Which led to a default scale showing only southern Florida instead of the scale that I was looking at, all of the Gulf north of Cancun then east to the Bahamas.
Links have been corrected to show the Gulf/etc

Wanna see interesting, look at southernVietnam. The MekongDelta (the RiceBasket of Asia) is underwater with a sea-level rise of 7metres; Saigon("HoChiMinhCity") is an island; and PhnomPenn,Cambodia is a seaport.

With a 2metre sea-level rise, Sacramento,California becomes a seaport (which is quite plausible before the end of this century).



I'll see your Sacramento Seaport and raise you a Bay of London:

Link

Oh, and China isn't immune to it either...

Link
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
517. washingtonian115
3:10 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Sue Palka is trying to hype a situation talking about a coastal storm may try and bring big snows to the D.C area.Please I've heard that before this winter.....Looks like we have another shot of snow come Tuesday.That however will be a wintery mix.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
516. Xyrus2000
3:09 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some prominent climate scientists find the "official" projections of between half a meter and two meters by 2100 to be too conservative, and believe that we could see up to a five meter rise by the turn of the century.

Not that I'll be around to collect (or pay out), but I'd put good money on a much bigger and quicker rise than officially expected. If nothing else, remember when it was believed that the Arctic Sea couldn't possibly be ice free in summer for at least another 50 years, and now projections are that it could reach that point in just five years?


I agree with the AR4 projection being underestimates. There's been enough empirical evidence alone to show that things are happening much faster than anticipated. Chances are the AR5 ensembles will do a much better job in this regard. However I didn't want to use higher numbers until there was more agreement in this area as there is a lot of active research going on, and given the parameter space it's hard to tell which new scenarios are the "worst case" and "best case".
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1452
515. yqt1001
3:09 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Same thing with Funso.

Before:


After:


Seems to be a regular occurrence with pin-hole eyes. Some exceptions still, Hilary kept its pinhole eye for the 5 days she was a major hurricane through 1-2 EWRCs.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
514. aspectre
3:09 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
452 aspectre "A naive 7meter-maximum coastal flooding map of Florida...
...a naive 13meter-minimum coastal flooding map..."
453 PlazaRed "It gets even more interesting when you look a bit further afield to New Orleans"

Thanks. Clicked on my links, then realized that the address didn't contain map-scale info. Which led to a default scale showing only southern Florida instead of the scale that I was looking at, all of the Gulf north of Cancun then east to the Bahamas.
Links have been corrected to show the Gulf/etc

Look at southernVietnam. The MekongDelta (the RiceBasket of Asia) is underwater with a sea-level rise of 7metres; Saigon("HoChiMinhCity") is an island; and PhnomPenh,Cambodia is a seaport.

Sacramento,California becomes a seaport with a 2metre sea-level rise (which is quite plausible before the end of this century).
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
513. AtHomeInTX
3:07 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting aislinnpaps:


The entire coastline of Louisiana was about wiped out by Katrina and Rita. My town has more than doubled I believe since Katrina and Rita.



I know. I felt so bad for the evacuees from Katrina who came to this area only to be moved along again a few weeks later. We got a direct hit by Rita, and she tore us up, but Louisiana got all her surge. Then we got Ike's surge and so did SW Louisiana - again! I think there's been enough of that for several lifetimes.

Rita's surge



Main Street Cameron



Surge height Creole

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
512. WeatherNerdPR
3:06 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


nice job...i didnt realize that after Wilmas' pinhole collapes, she came back with a BIG eye

Before:


After:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
511. washingtonian115
3:05 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wilma "The famous pinhole eye".Her eye was only 2 miles wide the smallest ever known....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
510. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:02 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


nice job...i didnt realize that after Wilmas' pinhole collapes, she came back with a BIG eye

Thanks, and yeah, it did.

I should have slowed it down at peak just a little bit more.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
509. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:01 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This would have driven this blog insane...



Subtropical Storm Alpha (1972)

I could see it now:
"FIIIIIIIISSSSSSSHHHHH!!!!!"
"OMG DOOM!"
"Cat 5 to Jacksonville then New Orleans"
"This is GLOBAL WARMING!!!"



Hey, presslord. Did you read this?

"... initially it moved northeastward off of the Carolinas" .... some people just cannot win. ;-) I feel your pain, man.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
508. SPLbeater
2:54 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll have Hurricane Wilma's satellite animation up in just a minute.


nice job...i didnt realize that after Wilmas' pinhole collapes, she came back with a BIG eye
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
507. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:53 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
506. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:45 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
I'll have Hurricane Wilma's satellite animation up in just a minute.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
505. washingtonian115
2:42 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Oh, and this year wasn't the first time Jose was puny...

Jose 1981
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Or this.... Karl (1980)

I think it's quite interesting to note that most of the storms that year were tiny storms.Also it looks like most of the warm water was near Africa and in the carribean.Just some small notes....As storms that formed out of those regions were weak.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
504. washingtonian115
2:38 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Or this.... Karl (1980)

Awwwwww look at the itsy bitsy tinny winny storm!!.It's so adorable!!.Lol.Seriously though stroms look less threatning when that small.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
503. aislinnpaps
2:33 AM GMT on February 10, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Scary for all of Louisiana. I read recently that they have a massive coastal protection system in the works. I hope that will come to be and help. Meanwhile here just across their border the 7 meter rise map looks almost identical to the surge map from Ike in my county. So we know what that would look like already. We have talks in progress to get a levee system. That would probably be a good idea. :)



The entire coastline of Louisiana was about wiped out by Katrina and Rita. My town has more than doubled I believe since Katrina and Rita.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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