Wilma still pounding Mexico; Alpha a major to threat to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2005

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The eye of very dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Wilma remains onshore the Yucatan mainland near Cancun. The most extreme winds of the eyewall have now been battering Cozumel and the mainland Yucatan Peninsula for over 24 hours. Sustained winds of 100 - 140 mph affecting a built-up resort area like Cozumel/Cancun for so long must have done extreme damage. Wilma has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, and will further weaken to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds today as its center remains over land. Still, the damage to Mexico may double today as structures already weakened by 24 hours of relentless winds continue to receive another 12 hours of stress, and as new areas along the north coast of the Yucatan receieve the eyewall's worst pounding.

Cancun radar, which is miraculously still functioning, shows the the eyewall of Wilma is degrading and starting to show gaps. The eye is now filled with clouds, and the cloud top temperatures of her eyewall clouds continue to warm as Wilma steadily weakens. When Wilma finally moves back over the ocean late tonight, she will probably be a weak Category 2 hurricane with 95 mph winds.

Conditions in Cancun
Wunderblogger LizinCancun reported yesterday on conditions in Cancun:


"We evacuated our home in Cancun yesterday and came 200 miles west to Merida. Our home sits about 100 feet away from the beach. The waves were crashing over our 6 foot tall sea wall yesterday before we left and destroyed the palapa that sits about 10 feet out in the water. We fully expect our home and all our belongings to be gone. We lost contact with all of our friends that stayed, cell and land lines are down of course as is power. We just talked with a friend that says the power is out, phones only working when the generators are running to pump out all the water. He said the hotel is blowing apart (not in the hotel zone) and all you can see when looking outside is a wall of water blowing sideways and pieces of things being shredded by the high winds, some huge."



>b>Figure 1. Total rainfall for the week. Image generated by NASA's TRMM rainfall measuring satellite.

A deluge of rain
Rainfall amounts in Mexico from Wilma have been extreme. Isla Mujeres, just offshore from Cancun, has reported almost 35" of rain over the past 1 1/2 days, and at one point reported 4" of rain in one hour between 2 and 3 am EDT today. Rainfall amounts in Cuba have not been nearly so extreme--at least in the areas of western Cuba that are still reporting data. San Juan y Martinez measured 10.7 cm (4.2 inches) of rain the past 24 hours, and storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 cm (7 inches) have been measured in Cuba's westernmost province. Grand Cayman received five inches, Jamaica's Kingston airport eight inches, and Belize four inches. The north coast of Honduras has had numerous locations receive ten inches of rain, with one unofficial report of 20 inches. Rainfall in Haiti reached 8 - 10 inches, and, triggered flash floods that killed 11 people.

How will Wilma affect Florida?
The latest 2 am EDT (06Z) model runs are in, and continue to agree on the basic scenario that Wilma will move offshore the Yucatan late tonight as a weak Category 2 hurricane. On Sunday, the storm will move slowly north and then northeast as westerly winds from a strong trough of low pressure start affecting the storm. There is about an 18-hour window of opportunity for Wilma to re-intensify to a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday. By Sunday night, the Wilma will begin to accelerate, and wind shear will begin to substantially weaken the storm. By Monday morning, Wilma will cross the west coast of Florida between Fort Myers and the Keys as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. My best guess is that Wilma will be a 100-mph Category 2 hurricane hitting near Marco. Storm surges tend to be worse with large and faster moving hurricanes, so I would expect a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, 10 to 16 feet, in and south of Marco, causing very heavy damage in that city. Fortunately, the area south of Marco is primarily uninhabited--the Everglades swamp. However, if Wilma comes ashore north of Naples--or further south near the Keys--storm surge flood damage in those areas could easily reach billions of dollars. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, where wind damage is the primary threat.


Figure 2. Storm surge map for southwest Florida.

Wilma's winds and rain
Wilma will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be a cold front there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye's passage will see winds a full Category--25 to 30 mph--lower than those on the south. This is because the storm's high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma's counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring tropical storm force winds to the northern Bahama Islands, but not hurricane force winds. Wilma should pass close enough to North Carolina's Outer Banks to bring 40 mph winds there.
Wilma is not expected to bring high winds to New England, but could bring 50 mph winds to Nova Scotia five days from now.

TD 25
Tropical Depression 25 has formed 200 miles southwest of Puerto Rico, and looks like a good bet to develop into a tropical storm later today. Long range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows some increasing spiral banding and echo intensity, and satellite imagery shows a good outflow channel developing to the southeast. Wind shear of about 10 knots is eroding the northwest portion of the storm.

Since we are all out of names this year, TD 25 will be given the name Alpha should it develop into a tropical storm. Given the storm's expected track over Haiti, the 8 - 12 inches of rain expected may cause heavy loss of life in that country due to the inability of the deforested hillsides to handle flood waters.

I'll be back in the morning with the latest, or later today, if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

Waves crash over 30 ft cliff due to Wilma (jamaicawatch)
Normally calm seas turn angry in Negril, Jamaica.
Waves crash over 30 ft cliff due to Wilma
Wilma in Cozumel (InCozumel)
Roof top view looking south, almost a white-out
Wilma in Cozumel

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223. wadcane
10:32 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Look at the front (troph) moving into the Gulf. It has a bow in it, Could this change or affect Wilma's path????
Gulf of Mexico - Visible Loop





222. olefosse
7:31 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Am I out on a limb here, or isn't the following advisory full of nonsense?
Link

Mr. Knabb maintains that Wilma is at Cat2 strength, though none of the cited values fit with the Saffir-Simpson criteria for a Cat2 storm: near 110 MPH, 953 Mbar. These values and Dvorak Current intensity classification indicate Cat3 the way I see it. Am I missing a point here, or is the NHC classifying Wilma falsely?
221. GoldenGate
5:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hey Scribblin - It's not too late for people to leave Naples at all. I just spoke with the FL Hwy Patrol and they told me I75 is experiencing no delays right now. He said he thinks everyone will be leaving tomorrow. That having been said, even though reports are encouraging with regarding to a weakening of the storm, I'm still hoping to get out tonight. Would leave earlier, but we are still helping others get their plywood up. As soon as that's done it will be early evening and we will make our final call whether to leave or stay in Naples. Fortunately we have a place to stay in Georgia. Best of luck to everyone.
220. weatherboyfsu
4:14 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Whats up people......Haiti will get alot of rain, more so than wind....flooding should be your most concern....if thats not a problem.......than you should be able to sit back and relax..........as for florida........whewwwwwww..........its killing me to have to sit and wait and wait and wait..........geeeeeeezzzzzzzz....if we see a gust over 100mph with wilma i will be surprised.........the biggest concerns i have are:


1) Storm Surge

2) Tornados

those two things potentially could mess things up.....Rainfall not a problem and again if we see a gust over 100mph i will be surprised... just my opinion..
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
219. AySz88
4:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
jcpoulard: The NHC says "A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF HISPANIOLA BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI."

Looks like they *did* post a warning. Be careful....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
218. Hydrocvl
4:04 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
jcpoulard, so far no chances for cat 1, all models max at 55 mph stay tuned so, best wishes, you got more problems with rain in mountains.
217. jcpoulard
4:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hello every one !
I'm in Haiti. It is very hot here ! TD 25 allmost TS Alpha will impact us by sunday morning or at noon. For now the governement didn't post any warning ! It is so curious to see that !
I'm very affraid because where I live is on the track of this system and I will receive a direct impact. My big concern is Wind.
Do you think the systeme have any chance to become a minimal Cat 1 Hurricane before land fall somewhere over Haiti?
Member Since: September 15, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 114
216. Hydrocvl
3:59 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
SEFL, he said it was because of the huge outer band would be reaching the keys soon.
215. keeywester
3:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Thanks SEFL.

I was worried the track was going to change.
214. SEFL
3:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Why is it that they only posted a hurricane watch for us in the Keys and not the rest of the southwest coast?

Because of the evacuation issues they have to give keys 36 hour warning of tropical storm force winds
213. MisterJimster
3:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
11:00 report says 115 MPH max winds cat 3 drifting north 21.3, 87.0 and further weakening is expected. It may be moving a slight bit faster-not sure yet.
212. keeywester
3:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Morning all.

Why is it that they only posted a hurricane watch for us in the Keys and not the rest of the southwest coast? This kind of bothers me.....the track guidance still seems to take it all north of here......do they know something we don't know?
211. socalweathernut
3:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
I read some last night that said all power had been turned off for safety... Most would be conserving batteries for emergency, if the phones are still active.
Member Since: September 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
210. code1
3:28 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Anyone have any news from our fellow bloggers from Cozumel or Cancun? Hope they are safe. I know they are at the very least going to have a very difficult time of it.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
209. gnshpdude
3:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Looks like the storm is already beginning to turn. Lastest coordinates indicate NNE motion.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
208. matilda101
3:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
The peace of mind is worth it. Our condo replaced all the old 40 year old windows last year. We replaced them with hurricane resisant, Miami-Dade County approved windows What a differnce it makes as far as noise, savings on energy bills, and of better protection from hurricanes. I live near the beach at Fort Lauderdale. The state will require all high rise condo buildings to have high-impact windows within 7 years. The insurance companies are requiring them to do it if they continue to want coverage in the state of Florida. I don't blame them as all older building need to be updated. Outdated windows are the easiest way the wind can penetrate and destroy a building.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
207. BigJohnTheHustler
3:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
I am in West Palm.... I think the 11am advisory will tell the tale. The predictiones get worse for us over here, stronger storm on West Coast, with a little more Northern turn gives us East Coasters a pretty powerful kick...remember, SOUTHSIDE of this one is the bad side when it gets to us!

I will probably encourage some boarding up among my family and friends, although tomorrow WILL NOT be too late though.... point of no return will be 2pm Sunday!
206. JupiterFarmer
2:57 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
sorry, td alpha...right?
205. JupiterFarmer
2:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
steve lyons just reported ts alpha. is that confirmed anywhere?
204. NYPD2PSL
2:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Showing TD25 not to be a concern for the U.S. mainland at this time.
203. sngalla
2:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
11am out. Still a cat 3. Keys under a hurricane watch. Hurricane watch will probably be posted for the rest of the fl peninsula later today.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
202. wpbpasogirl
2:39 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Is everybody preparing or just waiting for the 11:00 a.m.?
201. wpbpasogirl
2:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
I heard on Channel 12 that they are saying to put up the hurricane shutters in Palm Beach County. It is so quiet right now that it doesn't seem like a storm is coming. It sure is muggy though!
200. SWFLAStratosailor
2:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Storm readiness:
already my old house was built stronger than required by codes, with special attention to the roof / trusses (no 2x4, but 2x6 instead, and I had installed a 7.5 KW/h Genset hardwired to kitchen / lights / and some outlets as well as all ceiling fans (to run the AC you need more power), and it served well after Charley. When I decided to build my new house, I set my standards even higher: First of all, I had the house build at an elevation 4' higher than required, all outside walls, even the recessed ones, which normally get done with stud walls, now are concrete block with concrete filled cells @ 24" o.c., 2x6 cantilevering rooftrusses (no birdsmouth), all windows (Eurocraft - Koemmerling tested to 175 mp/h wind)and doors with triple pane impact resistant (actually bulletproof) glass, and a liquid-cooled diesel powered Genset with 16 KW/h continuous output. I also have an additional 90 sq. ft. "safe-room", surrounded with 8" concrete walls, and with a 12" concrete slab as ceiling, which could serve as escape, if the waters rose higher than expected. All of this "extras" cost me only about $45,000.-, on a house with 2,700 sq ft living area,which translated in monthly cost for a 30-year mortgage would be around $250.00, but given the fact, that in return for the better windows there is a energy savings of $75.- a month, it really is only $175 a month more, than without peace of mind. I think it's worth it, and I don't understand, why new houses are not built this way, or even close to such standards. The cost for doing the above on the average 2,000 sq.ft house, with a smaller generator would be reduced to $20,000, less than $50/month counting the energy savings!
Just my 2 Cents
199. sngalla
2:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
As if there wasn't enough to worry about. The flhurricane.com site just posted that td 25 has formed and that advisories are likely to start at 11am.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
198. scribblin
2:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
ric...I think they contact you because of the potential for loss of life (yours, that is). All of us have people with whom we're not close enough to need to call all the time, but we'd still care if they were in danger.

sholl...There are blogs where people from Cozumel were posting as of last night. One is www.stormcarib.com (I think) and another was something like www.caribbeanmycaribbean.com. Click on "reports" or "discussion" or things like that and you'll find them.
197. 2ifbyC
2:11 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
cctxshirl & others,

I pull my trolling motor batts (TMB) and make sure they are fully charged (you can use regular auto batts also, but ya may need them in case you must evac).

I have three inverters that converts battery 12DC voltage to 110 VAC. I have two 400 and one 1000 watt units. There are various qualities, ergo price, units out there. I've had great success with the moderate priced inverters.

There are wattage charts on the web to determine the size inverter or gen set you need.

I run a TV and fan in the garage (where I live during a storm) with a 400 watter. In the house I run two fans and a TV on the other 400 watter to keep the bride happy.

I just purchased the 1000 watter as a catchall in case the gen set kaputs.

I top off the TMBs with a charger when I run the gen set. I've yet to run any of the TMBs down with this schedule.

I move the gen set to the windward side in order to insure that the exhaust is blown away from the house.

I have 20 gallons of gas in 5/2.5 gal containers. As a backup my boat has a 40 gal gas tank. I can transfer gas using a hand crank pump. DO NOT USE A POWERED PUMP FOR GASOLINE FOR TRANSFER!

If anyone has any questions, email me at 2ifbyC@tampabay.rr.com. We don't want to clog the blog!



Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
196. scribblin
2:11 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
newFLfungirl...Wow, first 'cane. Be safe. The local TV stations all have websites that help you think of the things you need to do to prepare.

Regarding a Charlotte hit, I don't think there's any way. Maybe some outlying islands along the Carolinas might get some tropical storm winds, but I think the storm will pass farther out to the east.

Regarding Jim Cantore, he's a TV forecaster who seems to have the uncanny, unearthly ability to be where the eye of a hurricane hits, unpredictable as they are. It's like he is a hurricane magnet. So people (including myself) are cracking jokes that are 50% humor and 50% nervousness - especially if Cantore is near their hometown!

BTW, I'm trying to send out anti-Cantore vibes as I type....
195. scribblin
2:05 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Morning all!

LizinCancun...I'm praying for you. So sorry about the devastation.

MysticDog...There's really only one way out of Naples (I-75), so people have to leave as early as possible before the interstate becomes a parking lot. Everybody who is still here has pretty much committed to staying, I'd say.

194. Sasha
1:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
I'm in central Florida - near you, OGal. I work in local government and worked storm shift after the storms last year. Did a couple of 12-hour stints answering phones in the EOC, and helped distribute ice off of the refrigerated trucks. If it does change track and veer towards us, I know what I'll be doing on Monday. Everyone in south to central Florida sweating it out this week-end. Make all of your preparations now and evacuate if necessary. Don't take any chances if you live in the Naples/south Gulf area. Unbelievable devastation in Cancun. Best wishes to all.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 26
193. JupiterFL
1:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
I haven't done anything yet Farmer. I am going to wait and see how long it sits over the Yucatan befor I decide to go through the whole put the shutters up routine.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
192. cctxshirl
1:43 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hey, 2ifbyC, tell me more about using your trollng motor to run radio, tv & fans?

Also, tell your kids or anyone who uses the generator to be very very careful. We used ours after Brett and all of us ended up with carbon monoxide poisoning (and the husband is an engineer who is supposed to know what he's doing). We placed our generator pretty far from the house but we were using a window unit a/c as opposed to central at that time and the window a/c pulled in the exhaust (and it wasn't near the generator at all).
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 341
191. 2ifbyC
1:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
My input on gen sets running 24/7 (someones's earlier gripe).

After Charlie my gen set ran at least 22/7. Three hours three times a day for my freezer, fridge, fans and battery charger for my inverters (for radio and TV). In between my usage, I would roll the gen set to my neighbors (two homes) and they would run a simular but abbreviated schedule. We did this for five days.

That gen is now a backup for my kids or neighbors in that I purchased an electric start (HIGHLY recommended1) unit due to a bad shoulder. Also, my wife can start the unit in my absence.

I used my boat deep-cycle trolling motor batts to run inverters for radio, TV and a couple of small fans. Recharged them during the gen set cycle.

Now back to your normal programming...

Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
190. gnshpdude
1:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Morning everyone, No suprises this morning I expected a weak cat 3 this morning. Hope it gets to a Cat 1 before getting back over the water.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
189. JupiterFarmer
1:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
hi all...haven't checked the posts in a while. just wondering what the so floridas have been doing to prepare for the storm. i'm in palm beach co and am still trying to decide whether or not to put up the shutters. i have to put them up by myself, so it's a big decision to make. anybody else doing the same thing? i'm thinking it may be better to be safe than sorry.

palmbeacher, etc. what have you guys been up to???
188. BigBabu
12:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
I'm telling you guys, my dreams are kicking up.
I keep seeing a more northern track.

From Sarasota to Tampa, watch out.

Babu
187. twifob
12:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
ric -
Those "shacks" actually survive a hurricane pretty well. The classic Mayan thatched hut will lose its roof, but it's just palm fronds that can be replaced. The dangerous ones are those whose owners have enough money to add a sheetmetal roof - think 6-foot wide flying razor blades. A step or two up the economic ladder and you are into cement walled houses ... fairly safe.

Most of the Yucatan is fast-draining limestone ... the flooding subsides quickly, so it's not going to do a NOLA on them. It's also flat, so the deadly mudslides aren't going to happen.

The Mexican government, repeating what they did when a hurricane (David?) roared across the middle of the Yucatan, has Army relief convoys sitting out of the storm path, and will move in behind Wilma with road-clearing and repairing crews, followed by water trucks and medical supplies. I've seen them in action in Sonora after a slow-moving tropical depression dumped a years worth of rain into the mountains in 6 hours, kicking off some impressive sudden floods, and it was impressive. I was stuck on a high stretch of highway for hours. Sitting on my skinny little island (safe, but hot and thirsty) I could see boats taking people to hilltops and choppers dropping off supplies to the hilltop refuges.
186. OGal
12:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hi all, just waiting. I know we don't have the scarey waiting you guys in South Florida have, but as I have said Charley nailed us. Who knows, you South Floridians could be off the hook and Orlando will get the bad winds again. SRQ I have many Sarasota friends and I sure hope you all will get by with only little twigs on the ground. More later from Winter Springs.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
185. Gatorman
12:39 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hi IC,

I'm from G'ville, now living in Naples. We're loaded up w/ gas for generator, water, non-perishables, charcoal & propane for grills, home is almost completely boarded. Will finish boarding later. We've got a house in Keystone, will be moving there next summer. Love that area up there, it's beautiful. Wish I was there now. With all the uncertainty surrounding where Wilma is heading we decided to stick it out here instead of possibly getting stuck on I-75. Just hope it goes a little further south as I would much rather be on the backside of this storm. Will ride it out and then, God willing, go out to offer any help to anyone I can.
184. CybrTeddy
12:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hi everyone,
I hope you all are giving the GFS some credit.
It has been consistant the last 7 runs. I am thinking FT. Myers landfall now.
Unless the GFS shifts.




JenD
::deploy the CANTORE!!
::ALL eyes on the GFS
::http://www.cyberteddy.freeservers.com/blog.htm
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
183. mybahamas
12:15 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Good morning from The Bahamas :)
A little piece of the 8am EST advisory:

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
inland over northeastern Yucatan near latitude 21.0 north...
longitude 87.0 west about 10 miles... 15 km west-southwest of Cancun
and about 415 miles... 665 km... southwest of Key West Florida.

Wilma is drifting northward... and a continued slow northward motion
is expected today. On this track...the core of Wilma will continue
to severely pound portions of the extreme northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula all day today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 120 mph... 195 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Wilma is a category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional weakening is expected today
while Wilma is over land.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb...27.85 inches.
------------------------

The BAMM is still making with a sharp right turn into The Bahamas :(
182. SRQgal
11:57 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
TAke care ALL... must run out for a bit.... BBL. Let's all keep smiling!
181. icmoore
11:54 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
Good morning everybody.I have lived in Florida my whole life. All 50 years of it (ouch). I was born in Jacksonville and now live inland in a very small town, Melrose. It is about 20 minutes away from Gainesville (Go Gators). The waiting on Wilma is driving me crazy. Got this stupid eye twitch thing going on from staring at this computer so long.Ric, people never suprise me anymore but hey at least you got people who pretend to care. I replaced friends and family with dogs and you know what they never let me down.Always loving and forgiving. Pretty pathetic sorry about that I must need more coffee. Even as far inland as we are we lost our electricity for 6 days with Frances last year and I watched our huge oak trees kissing the ground. We got over 13 inches of rain and more wind than we ever expected. So I'm going to be here waitng and watching like the rest of you. Cat
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
180. MarcoGlenn
11:46 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
Hi scribblin We are going to wait to see if we are going to leave or not. I will know a little later.
179. CaneBob
11:43 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
Cozumel must have devastaing damage and Cancun cannot be fairing too much better. Unfortunately for the people in Mexico the longer the storm stays over a land mass the better it is for Floridians. It also appears that the "shear" as started on the western and north west sides of the storm?

This storm has been bewildering and at this point nothing can be ruled out. In North Fort Lauderdale there were very heavy storms from feeder bands last night, those same storms flooded large parts of Oakland Park and Pompano Beach. Tornados too will become an increasing concern as the storm progresses and becomes extratropical perhaps even before a Florida landfall.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
178. ricstevenson
11:35 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
sholl

watching the weather channel... i think it's gonna be a day or so before any word comes out of there. it's surely bad.

i was in cozumel a few years ago. it's the epitamy of the "haves" and the "have-nots" there. most everything there is shacks and poverty... with a small percentage of rich, tourist 5-star hotels and cruise ship moorings.

that small upper percentage makes all those ppl that live in shacks be able to live their lives and probably.. all those shacks are blown down or flooded... so those big hotels and upper class amenties are damaged... while the people that work at them... are suffering, maybe even dying.

all we can do is wait.
177. ricstevenson
11:24 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
SRQgal

that is GREAT advice, although a little silly. yeah, making it funny is an option. during and after charley... i had calls then too... but over the course of time... when it was a perfect 90 degrees and i was at the beach.. they were jealous and would make comments that they stil had white christmases and that leaves still turned brown... or that they sure were glad they didn't have humidity.

they don't like it when you are happy and safe... but they jump all over drama
176. sholl
11:22 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
I'd like to hear how Cozumal came through and can't find word one about it. Anyone, Anyone???


sholl
175. ricstevenson
11:17 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
even if it was a cat5... i think staying here is still smarter than any other option. i've got gallons of water stored and food, a generator with 5 gal of gas, i'm on the third floor-facing east and worst case, my truck is 4wd... IF i had to jet. in the meanwhile... i've got a laptop with a ten hour battery and a broadband wireless card so as long as a tower is still up, i've got internet. and, i've got a dc powered tv.

the wierd thing is... i almost feel guilty for being so ready, safe and secure. there are so many ppl that may end up being in trouble and i KNOW i could help someone... yet going out in it or soon afterwards could be hazardous.

i've got a friend in naples, a single mom with small children. she has no family, no way to be ready... wasn't able or fortuitous enough to leave and is/was too proud to say she needed help or would. how many people are going to be like her... possibly in dire need of help... and here i sit with power from a generator, cold beer, a fan blowing on me, water to drink, etc. even to the point i could be here in my condo probably a week without ever sticking my head out the door... and a bunch of people outside my door might need help?

a tentative plan.. is to do that. hunker down and ride out the storm... and as soon as it's safe... go out and start helping people.
174. SRQgal
11:08 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
Ric... part of it is an adrenalin rush for these folks... you know... "I know someone who surviced the Titanic".

Laugh it off... send quick repy notes...with a touch of humor.... "thanks for the note... we're all learning to get along with the displaced alligators." ... or something to that effect...LOL
173. ricstevenson
11:06 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
from the experience of charley... i'm not sure evacuating is the smart choice. especially here in florida. where are you going to go? going east just puts you in the same path of the storm with winds that are to a lesser degree... but you are away from home, stuck in your vehicle... maybe in traffic. if you go north.. towards tampa... you are still in the same situation. waiting till the last minute makes it all the worse because everyone is waiting too and then you could end up on the side of the highway, 5 miles from home with a hurricane coming in. so, why not stay at home? the only other option would have been to jet and run out of state.. but then you've wasted plane fare and left your home abandoned.. and the thing may not even hit where you were?

it's a quandary

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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