Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on February 06, 2012

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Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.

What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?

A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."


Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JupiterKen:


It has been "proposed" as an additive to mess with the atmosphere. It is not a current jet fuel additive.

Edit: Further review of the article shows many errors.
From that website "Today's Top Stories: 'The Moon is Hollow, How Come?'" Definitely peer reviewed material right there.
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Cyclone Jasmine 133000Z 07 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 925.7mb/ 124.6kt

Raw T# 6.3
Adj T# 6.3
Final T# 6.4

Scene Type: EYE


Nice climb
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jet stream isn't coming south pulling cold arctic air from Canada. Results in mild to above average temps. If the jet stream doesn't come south, it wont get cold, simple as that


good! for me atleast lol. i prefer warmth over cold
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
329. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (942 hPa) located at 17.4S 165.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly in the past 12 hours. cold convection persist around low level circulation center. Eye still well defined in infrared. outflow remains good. System lies to the east of a short-wave upper trough center in a weak shear environment. Cyclone steered by west to northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in b surround yielding DT = 6.0, PT= 5.5 and MET=5.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Models generally agree on a southeast movement and gradually easing the system.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 19.7S 168.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 21.3S 170.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 24.4S 172.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
327. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 23.2S 167.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicates the system lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding DT=3.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeast movement without further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 26.4S 162.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.8S 157.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Looking at some of the states record high temps, was there any correlation between the winter weather and the summer high temp? (I.e. being a mild winter and a hot summer?) I see that a lot of the records for the midwest were set in 1954. Does this have anything to do with solar cycles, sea temps or mild winters?

Link

Wondering if we are going to see the heat this summer.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
It's called pattern anomolies, there's always something going on somewhere, can't have it all at once
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Jet stream isn't coming south pulling cold arctic air from Canada. Results in mild to above average temps. If the jet stream doesn't come south, it wont get cold, simple as that
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Have lived in the Tallahassee area for 12 years now and this is the warmest Jan/Feb period we have experienced (when we have frquently had low 20's and Teens in past years). Quite the anomaly this year. Flowers blooming everywhere and the fish all confused............... :)


Been in Louisiana all my life, and this must be the hottest January and February ever, though Jay Grimes claims it's only "top ten".

I don't know, we've only had 3 days this winter where the overnight lows were 32f or less, and technically, one of those was during Autumn, before the solstice even happened.

Overnight lows haven't gone below 40 in several weeks, and aren't going to do so again until at least the end of this week.


It's like the cold fronts can't even make temperatures get down to the old mean.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Bergeron:
CO2 this, CO2 that...what are they gonna do about water vapor?


Water vapor has an extremely short atmospheric life span. There's nothing that can be done about water vapor until temperatures drop, which isn't going to happen with long-lived GHGs like CO2.
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Quoting chimera245:


Thats my point, an M limit of 51/101 implies an intercept at (101,53) - which is outside the 0 < x < 100 range.

I've rechecked my logic and I believe it's sound. If 0 < x <= 100 I believe the limit to be 50/99.


No, that is an extrapolation point. The max value for y using 51/101 as the slope is:

y = (51/101)*100+2 = 52.49504950....

As the value of 101 is prime and does not evenly divide any number 0 < x <= 100, this guarantees no integer values for y for any integer x where 0 < x <= 100.

Your answer of 50/99 doesn't work when the value of x is 99:

y = (50/99)*99 + 2 = 52

You cannot choose an integer valued denominator less than or equal to 100, since that will always lead to a case where you will get at least one integer value of y on the domain of 0 < x < 100.

The more "technical" answer is that you're looking for the smallest denominator for m that is coprime to all numbers 0 < x <= 100 and the first number to do so is 101.
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Quoting Bergeron:
CO2 this, CO2 that...what are they gonna do about water vapor?


If you reversed the CO2 trend and got it back to natural levels, most of the water vapor would eventually lose it's heat and condense back to natural levels. Of course, that could take several decades to stabilize.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good surf right down the east coast of Australia also.
sounds good keeps the youth busy
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4718
Good Morning. Have lived in the Tallahassee area for 12 years now and this is the warmest Jan/Feb period we have experienced (when we have frquently had low 20's and Teens in past years). Quite the anomaly this year. Flowers blooming everywhere and the fish all confused............... :)
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CO2 this, CO2 that...what are they gonna do about water vapor?
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Looks like Googles "Solve for X" wants us to start with a blank sheet.

Link

Link

Edit: My bad. Only a blank page shows up on IE. Works fine on FF.

Pretty cool concept!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
phew im starving..be back soon :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
120,000 ft drop

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630

Category 3 Jasmine, 100kt windspeeds as of 0900Z
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
"Skydiver to Attempt Record-Breaking Supersonic Space Jump."

Link

Current record.

Link

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
Quoting percylives:


The fossil fuel companies must have wet their respective pants laughing at these fools.

Spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of anything 30 miles above the earth is going to require millions of tonnes of fossil fuels. And, of course, the bill will be picked up by government. Ahhhh, the free market system at its best, pocketing the profits and socializing the costs. But a carbon tax to lower demand would be too expensive for the economy and alternative sources just won't work.

If we don't change soon, the epitaph on the gravestone of humanity will read, "Died for Profits, not Wisdom".

My country, Australia, will have a Carbon Tax starting July 1, $23/tonne is the price that's been put on it.
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George Noory is on the cutting edge of this...
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Quoting wxmod:
From the Guardian News: "A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research."
You can read the article here: Link


The fossil fuel companies must have wet their respective pants laughing at these fools.

Spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of anything 30 miles above the earth is going to require millions of tonnes of fossil fuels. And, of course, the bill will be picked up by government. Ahhhh, the free market system at its best, pocketing the profits and socializing the costs. But a carbon tax to lower demand would be too expensive for the economy and alternative sources just won't work.

If we don't change soon, the epitaph on the gravestone of humanity will read, "Died for Profits, not Wisdom".
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I think you should read this...


It has been "proposed" as an additive to mess with the atmosphere. It is not a current jet fuel additive.

Edit: Further review of the article shows many errors.
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Quoting JupiterKen:


Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.

I think you should read this...
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Quoting JupiterKen:


Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.


I wouldn't want nano-scale Corundum particles in the air anyway.

Not too happy with that whole ideal of sulfuric acid and abrasive nano-particles getting in the eyes and lungs of everyone on the planet.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING ENE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE
FIVE DAY RAINFALL FORECAST TOTALS FROM HPC RANGES FROM AROUND HALF
OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST AND METRO AREAS. THIS
SOLUTION LINES UP WELL WITH THE OVERALL TOTALS FROM THE GFS MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SWRN GULF AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
OVER THE COARSE OF THE WEEKEND. UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WILL KEEP A GENERAL MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
PLACE. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
AND JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
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Quoting wxmod:


Volcanoes do not inject all their volume right into the stratosphere. Cleverly placed welsbach materials burned along with jet fuel at over 30000 feet can do the job fairly cheaply. This is not mystery science. You see contrails expanding and filling up the sky every time there is upwelling air; pre-frontal. Jet fuel contains aluminum oxide which makes it burn more explosively. It just takes a little extra aluminum and you are geoengineering.


Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.
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Quoting islander101010:
going to be some good surfing waves next wk latin america to peru

Good surf right down the east coast of Australia also.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


I could not see how Cyril could affect Fiji, if Cyril is 740km's east of Fiji and moving further east. For Cyril to affect Fiji it would have to travel west.

Here is what I see.
going to be some good surfing waves next wk latin america to peru
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4718
299:

Incredible.

Look how it jumped from 70kts sustained, straight to 100kts sustained and STUCK THERE, and the change happened within 15 minutes.

That must be some of the most rapid intensification EVER.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Now that's a nice circular eye.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Aussie. I think they had gale warnings up for Nuie, which r now discontinued. Whatever wx Fiji was going to get from Cyril they already got. It's starting to look like they may squeak by with Jasmine, also, but we shall see.

Yeah, they may get the outer bands but I don't think it would be a full impact.
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Hey, Aussie. I think they had gale warnings up for Nuie, which r now discontinued. Whatever wx Fiji was going to get from Cyril they already got. It's starting to look like they may squeak by with Jasmine, also, but we shall see.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Vanuatu braces for Cyclone Jasmine
Weather forecasters say a cyclone heading towards Vanuatu may pass close to shore and not hit the country directly.

A yellow cyclone alert is in force ahead of the cyclone's arrival on Tuesday night.

But Neville Koop from the Nadraki weather office in Suva told Radio Australia there is uncertainty surrounding the cyclone's exact path.

"It may avoid the islands directly and stay somewhat to the west of the southern islands," he said.



Cyclone Cyril

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Cyril is north of Tonga, bringing with it strong winds.

Cyril is located about 740 kilometres east of Fiji, and heading east, south east.

It is also expected to affect flood-stricken Fiji.

A cyclone alert has been declared across most of Tonga, with high seas expected in Fiji.


I could not see how Cyril could affect Fiji, if Cyril is 740km's east of Fiji and moving further east. For Cyril to affect Fiji it would have to travel west.

Here is what I see.
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What did you get in this Jeff Master? Hahaped is so much better!
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Vanuatu braces for Cyclone Jasmine
Weather forecasters say a cyclone heading towards Vanuatu may pass close to shore and not hit the country directly.

A yellow cyclone alert is in force ahead of the cyclone's arrival on Tuesday night.

But Neville Koop from the Nadraki weather office in Suva told Radio Australia there is uncertainty surrounding the cyclone's exact path.

"It may avoid the islands directly and stay somewhat to the west of the southern islands," he said.



Cyclone Cyril

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Cyril is north of Tonga, bringing with it strong winds.

Cyril is located about 740 kilometres east of Fiji, and heading east, south east.

It is also expected to affect flood-stricken Fiji.

A cyclone alert has been declared across most of Tonga, with high seas expected in Fiji.
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Looks like the Solomons and Vanuatu are going to get the worst of this over the next 24 hours....
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This is from the Fiji Met Service website, and gives a closer look @ Jasmine's forecast track. It's not as bad as it looks on the wunderground map.... due to scale, I'd say. Luckily current Cyril was a mere disturbance as it passed through this area last week, though it did seem to bring quite a bit of rain with it.
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Morning all, especially HGW... I see Jasmine hasn't changed much in terms of foward direction... this is like a worst case scenario for Fiji and the other archipelagos near it. This compares to a storm coming up the Bahamas from SE to NW, hitting all the islands on its way. I just hope Jasmine doesn't strengthen anymore.

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289. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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288. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
===================================

* A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 21.4S 169.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 22 knots. Position fair based on GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. Eye evident in past visible imagery has become cloud filled in last 6 hours. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicates the system lies in a low to moderately sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C and expected to decrease on projected path.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models maintains a southeast movement without further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.4S 165.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 27.2S 160.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

*note no more special weather warnings will be issued for Niue
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287. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 18.5S 164.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 14 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly over the past 12 hours with eye forming. System remains in a region of upper diffluence enhanced by a trough just to the west. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east-southeast by strong west northwest steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye with lg surround

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Models generally agree on an east southeastward movement in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 19.3S 167.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.5S 169.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.6S 172.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
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But by probability theory all the questions should have answers. And if you did not got it by yourself, go to hahaped
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Quoting WxGeekVA:




I'm only in Trig and I only have a C in the class.... Too busy messing with girls in the back row to pay much attention....LOL


Man, Trig? Those were the good old days LOL, where I used to do some home work and skip the rest, study for a little while before tests and finish with an A. I'm in Calculus with analytic geometry 3 this semester, and the tests are freaking intense despite me doing all the homework.

I got a C in Calc 2 because I was often choking under stress and pressure during tests repeatedly even though I did well in the homework and studied plenty. Calculus 3 is stuff like vector calculus and 3 dimensional analysis, somehow its even more terrifying than Calc 2, yet interesting at the same time because there is a lot of high level science application that is very useful.
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Patrap
I don't know how comment #281 comment came out looking like it did, but I apoligize. Maybe too many mist.
Jesse
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Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!! Not another PacNW non-summer!


Quoting nofailsafe:
While Punxsutawny Phil predicts six more weeks of Winter, CPC's CFSv2 predicts at least 4-6 more months of La Nina.

Weekly ENSO Update 6. February 2012
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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