Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys
Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.
What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?
A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."
Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good surf right down the east coast of Australia also.
Jet fuel does not contain aluminum oxide to make it burn explosively. Please show a citation that proves otherwise.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING ENE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE
FIVE DAY RAINFALL FORECAST TOTALS FROM HPC RANGES FROM AROUND HALF
OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST AND METRO AREAS. THIS
SOLUTION LINES UP WELL WITH THE OVERALL TOTALS FROM THE GFS MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SWRN GULF AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
OVER THE COARSE OF THE WEEKEND. UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WILL KEEP A GENERAL MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
PLACE. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
AND JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
I wouldn't want nano-scale Corundum particles in the air anyway.
Not too happy with that whole ideal of sulfuric acid and abrasive nano-particles getting in the eyes and lungs of everyone on the planet.
I think you should read this...
It has been "proposed" as an additive to mess with the atmosphere. It is not a current jet fuel additive.
Edit: Further review of the article shows many errors.
The fossil fuel companies must have wet their respective pants laughing at these fools.
Spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of anything 30 miles above the earth is going to require millions of tonnes of fossil fuels. And, of course, the bill will be picked up by government. Ahhhh, the free market system at its best, pocketing the profits and socializing the costs. But a carbon tax to lower demand would be too expensive for the economy and alternative sources just won't work.
If we don't change soon, the epitaph on the gravestone of humanity will read, "Died for Profits, not Wisdom".
My country, Australia, will have a Carbon Tax starting July 1, $23/tonne is the price that's been put on it.
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Current record.
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Category 3 Jasmine, 100kt windspeeds as of 0900Z
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Edit: My bad. Only a blank page shows up on IE. Works fine on FF.
Pretty cool concept!
If you reversed the CO2 trend and got it back to natural levels, most of the water vapor would eventually lose it's heat and condense back to natural levels. Of course, that could take several decades to stabilize.
No, that is an extrapolation point. The max value for y using 51/101 as the slope is:
y = (51/101)*100+2 = 52.49504950....
As the value of 101 is prime and does not evenly divide any number 0 < x <= 100, this guarantees no integer values for y for any integer x where 0 < x <= 100.
Your answer of 50/99 doesn't work when the value of x is 99:
y = (50/99)*99 + 2 = 52
You cannot choose an integer valued denominator less than or equal to 100, since that will always lead to a case where you will get at least one integer value of y on the domain of 0 < x < 100.
The more "technical" answer is that you're looking for the smallest denominator for m that is coprime to all numbers 0 < x <= 100 and the first number to do so is 101.
Water vapor has an extremely short atmospheric life span. There's nothing that can be done about water vapor until temperatures drop, which isn't going to happen with long-lived GHGs like CO2.
Been in Louisiana all my life, and this must be the hottest January and February ever, though Jay Grimes claims it's only "top ten".
I don't know, we've only had 3 days this winter where the overnight lows were 32f or less, and technically, one of those was during Autumn, before the solstice even happened.
Overnight lows haven't gone below 40 in several weeks, and aren't going to do so again until at least the end of this week.
It's like the cold fronts can't even make temperatures get down to the old mean.
Link
Wondering if we are going to see the heat this summer.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
===================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 23.2S 167.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicates the system lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Sea surface temperature around 27C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding DT=3.5, MET and PT agree.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Global models agree on a southeast movement without further development.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.4S 162.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.8S 157.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
=====================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (942 hPa) located at 17.4S 165.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Overall organization has improved significantly in the past 12 hours. cold convection persist around low level circulation center. Eye still well defined in infrared. outflow remains good. System lies to the east of a short-wave upper trough center in a weak shear environment. Cyclone steered by west to northwest deep layer mean flow.
Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in b surround yielding DT = 6.0, PT= 5.5 and MET=5.5.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS
Models generally agree on a southeast movement and gradually easing the system.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.7S 168.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 21.3S 170.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 24.4S 172.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
good! for me atleast lol. i prefer warmth over cold
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 925.7mb/ 124.6kt
Raw T# 6.3
Adj T# 6.3
Final T# 6.4
Scene Type: EYE
Nice climb
Viewing: 301 - 333
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