Super Sunday tropical disturbance forms in Yucatan Channel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2012

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OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.

Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters

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Yes 30% we could actually have Alberto of this system
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Who would of thunk?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11014
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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135. 7544
hmm you people think we might see a td at the least out of this thing place your bets
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


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Here's Wikipedia on 1952's Hurricane Fox:

Hurricane Fox (1952)From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Formed October 20, 1952
Dissipated October 28, 1952
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure 934 mbar (hPa); 27.58 inHg
Fatalities 41
Damage $10 million (1952 USD)
Areas affected Cuba, southeast Florida, the Bahamas
Part of the 1952 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Fox was the strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone of the below average 1952 Atlantic hurricane season. The seventh tropical storm, sixth Atlantic hurricane, and the third major hurricane of the season, Fox was a small and intense Caribbean storm that developed northwest of Cartagena, Colombia, in the southern Caribbean Sea. It moved steadily northwest, intensifying to a tropical storm on October 21. The next day, it rapidly strengthened into a hurricane and turned north. The cyclone attained peak winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) as it struck Cayo Guano del Este off the coast of Cienfuegos. Fox made landfall on Cuba at maximum intensity, producing peak gusts of 170–180 mph (275–290 km/h). It weakened over land, but it re-strengthened as it turned east over the Bahamas. On October 26, it weakened and took an erratic path, dissipating west-southwest of Bermuda on October 28.

Hurricane Fox was the second most intense hurricane to strike Cuba until Hurricane Michelle in the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. It was originally believed to have been the second Category 4 hurricane in Cuba prior to the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis. At the time, the cyclone produced the fourth lowest pressure in a landfalling Cuban hurricane; only the 1917, 1924, and 1932 hurricanes were more intense. Hurricane Fox killed at least 40 people across the island, causing severe crop damages in rural areas. The hurricane also ruined 30 percent of the tomato crops on Eleuthera in the Bahamas. Across the archipelago, Fox produced wind gusts in excess of 110 mph (175 km/h).


Hmmm... that 41 is quite different from the 600 I thought I saw... must have misread a column on Wunderground.

The more interesting thing about 1952 is that while it had only 7 TCs, SIX of them were hurricanes.... lol

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Girl can sing.

Anyone can sing the National Anthem without screwing it up or cracking their voice is good singer, IMO.
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Quoting LargoFl:
anyone know what kind of hurricane season it was for florida in 1952 after that surprise feb storm?
I was wondering if anybody would ask this...

Quoting angiest:


A most unremarkable year.
Except for the cat 4 that ran across Cuba at the end of the season and killed 41 pple...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BOLD ADDED BY ME
By Tuesday it'll be closer to JAX than here... lol... we'll already be wet. It almost never rains more than a tad here in Feb, so I'm interested to see how this actually shapes up...

Mind you, it's been warm enough today for me to believe we've got some tropical air streaming north... still 79 at 6 p.m. here.
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nvest 90
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 21.8 85.7W — Movement: NNE
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
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One more strange to add to the days list.........

My wife saw a brown fuzzy caterpillar crawling along the walking path down by the river today.

I do not think this is a normal happening in Grand Forks the beginning of February.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost!
Incredible and rare Invest 90L in the Yucatan Straight - 2/5/12
Strait, Ted... the other one is the opposite of crooked, not the geographical location.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ok.... wasn't expecting a new blog while I was gone...

BTW

THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S
FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE VERY NEAR BAHA HURICANS HOUSE .

BOLD ADDED BY ME
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I know! I moved up to Michigan from NC this past summer...and I am kinda ticked off that we really didn't get much snow where I am at. I guess I picked the best year to move up to Michigan so I can gradually get used to winters up here....


It ain't over yet.

--Pete (elsewhere in MI)
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Quoting hydrus:
Alright. This is what winter should look like. Will it happen. The GEM in 144 hours..


???what???
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Feels like June.Certainly doesn't feel like it outside.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
Ok.... wasn't expecting a new blog while I was gone...

BTW

THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S
FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For the Super Bowl...I agree with the Greyhounds...



That is funny!!
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Isn't CLP5 model out to lunch? LOL?

90L would have to cut straight through a front to do that.
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For the Super Bowl...I agree with the Greyhounds...

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The real CIMSS:

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Quoting Grothar:



30 hours? How long does it take you to make dessert?


Nea makes his pies. :)
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Visual to go with the 18Z text updates. Time to go pull my famous 30hr ribs off the grill.





30 hours? How long does it take you to make dessert?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Visual to go with the 18Z text updates. Time to go pull my famous 30hr ribs off the grill.


You are another blogger that makes me hungry talking about food..:)
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CIMSS

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Visual to go with the 18Z text updates. Time to go pull my famous 30hr ribs off the grill.


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Alright. This is what winter should look like. Will it happen. The GEM in 144 hours..
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Lol...

.CLIMATE...
BEEN TRYING TO SPIT THIS OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE WEATHER
HASNT ALLOWED IT. THE MONTH OF JANUARY AROUND SWRN LA/SERN WAS ONE
OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD AS ALL 5 LOCAL CLIMATE SITES REPORTED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPS.

THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR LAKE CHARLES WAS 59.3 DEGREES WHICH WAS 7.5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (1981-2010 NORMALS). THIS MARKS THE 3RD WARMEST
JANUARY ON RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1895)...THE WARMEST BEING 1950
(63.3 DEGREES).

THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR WAS 60.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS
7.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MARKS THE 5TH WARMEST JANUARY ON
RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1901)...THE WARMEST ALSO BEING 1950 (63.2
DEGREES).

THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR NEW IBERIA WAS 59.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 6.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALSO MARKS THE 5TH WARMEST JANUARY ON
RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1948)...THE WARMEST ALSO BEING 1950 (66.1
DEGREES).

WHILE NOT REACHING THE TOP TEN IN WARMEST JANUARYS...LAFAYETTE (58.2
DEGREES/+5.7) AND ALEXANDRIA (54.2 DEGREES/+5.2) ALSO RECORDED MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL MONTHS.
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No floater yet..
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oh no.... don't you scare me like that! I just found out.
The 2012 phenomenon! nooo way!
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863

WHXX01 KWBC 052228

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2228 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120205 1800 120206 0600 120206 1800 120207 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.8N 85.7W 22.2N 86.0W 22.6N 85.9W 22.7N 85.7W

BAMD 21.8N 85.7W 23.9N 83.8W 26.4N 80.6W 29.1N 75.0W

BAMM 21.8N 85.7W 22.7N 84.9W 23.7N 83.4W 25.1N 81.2W

LBAR 21.8N 85.7W 22.8N 84.5W 24.1N 82.5W 25.3N 79.4W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 29KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120207 1800 120208 1800 120209 1800 120210 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.3N 85.4W 24.4N 84.6W 27.1N 83.5W 30.4N 78.0W

BAMD 31.2N 66.0W 30.6N 49.2W 28.7N 41.9W 25.3N 41.2W

BAMM 26.8N 77.5W 29.5N 66.2W 30.9N 52.5W 28.3N 48.9W

LBAR 25.9N 75.7W 25.5N 68.6W 26.0N 63.3W 24.6N 58.3W

SHIP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 85.7W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 3KT

LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 8DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 86.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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XXXX XXXX
XX/INV/90L
MARK
23.3N84.55W
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Turn the page...lol.

be back l8r
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ATCF update. Pressure is down two millibars; winds are the same:

AL, 90, 2012020518, , BEST, 0, 218N, 857W, 25, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Twins.
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81 SouthDadeFish "You can really see a circulation starting to develop in the TPW loop"

If I remember correctly, there was also a closed low developing in the Pacific south of CostaRica.
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As eyebrow rises.........."fascinating"....... :)
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Quoting Levi32:
My shameless plug for the day:

Today provides an opportunity to preview my auto-updating ATCF page, where the most pertinent info is displayed without you having to decipher it from the confusing ATCF files.
Thanks Levi, thats going to be really helpfull.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Jose obviously deserves to be retired.

AHHHHHH!!!!!!! Run away, Its gonna kill us!!!!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That monster storm! It's name should get retired!

No. Jose obviously deserves to be retired.

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Good afternoon everyone, been way too long since the last time I visited WU hahaa. I see that we have a weak low pressure system associated with a surface trough centered just off of the western Cuban coast producing a bunch of showers and thunderstorms across most of the western Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Interaction with an upper-trough will probably halt the disturbance from becoming anything more than a rain event for Cuba and Florida, but who knows, stranger things have happened in the past.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That monster storm! It's name should get retired!


not as bad as TS Jose :)
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Quoting angiest:


Yep. I'd say 90L looks better.

Plus, theres that storm that people never knew about and it was barely noticeable.(Jose)
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Quoting angiest:


By contrast, a tropical storm from last year:


That monster storm! It's name should get retired!
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My shameless plug for the day:

Today provides an opportunity to preview my auto-updating ATCF page, where the most pertinent info is displayed without you having to decipher it from the confusing ATCF files.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Don?


Yep. I'd say 90L looks better.
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Quoting angiest:


By contrast, a tropical storm from last year:


Don?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2198
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY INTERESTING WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AS COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SE OFF TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS...AND DEEP LAYERED
VORTEX OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL MAINTAINING CONVECTION AND APPEARING
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY 1628 UTC
ASCAT PASS WITH INTERESTING NOTCH ALONG FRONT NEAR 25N95W...AND
25-30 KT WINDS STREAMING SWD ALONG MEXICAN COAST. RECENT GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES W OF FRONT AND S OF
25N LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AND HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WARNING AS SUCH. FRONT TO MOVE S-SE ACROSS WRN GULF AND SE
ACROSS NRN GULF AND ARCH FROM NEAR 29N83W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY MON MORNING...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING ALONG SW
PORTIONS OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. BUOY 42020 HAS BEEN WAVERING AT
10-11 FT ALL MORNING...SOME 3-4 FT ABOVE WW3 AND ALL OTHER WAVE
MODELS. FRONT TO THEN WASH OUT ACROSS S AND SE GULF FROM NEAR
26N82W TO OFFSHORE OF NW YUCATAN COAST. WINDS VEER N TO NE AND
DROP OFF THE 15 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS DROPPING
ACCORDINGLY. COASTAL TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS W GULF 48-72 HRS
WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE YIELDING SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AS FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DISTURBANCE...SRN STREAM NEGATIVE
TILT S/W SHIFTING E-NE ACROSS YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY
HAS MOVED OVER LLVL TROFFING IN SAME LOCATION...WITH VIGOROUS
MID LEVEL TURNING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST OFF W TIP OF
CUBA. IR AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LLVL TURNING AND CLOUD LINES
FROM SW TO NE OFF E COAST OF YUCATAN...WITH AN 1800 UTC SHIP OB
OF SE WINDS AT 20 KT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH APPARENT CYCLONIC
TURNING. FURTHER INSPECTION OF VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A MESO LOW NEAR
23N87W...WHERE WE HAVE PUT A LOW ON SFC MAP...AND ANOTHER LOW OR
TWO ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING NE THEN
E-NE ACROSS THE STRAITS AND TO THE KEYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE NE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ACROSS S FL MON AND MON
EVENING AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE LAMINAR FLOW ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT
APPEARS OBVIOUS THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS
S FL MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
SHIFTING NE ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. WHETHER OR NOT A SFC LOW IS
REALIZED REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MORE THAN 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT IN A SMALL ZONE
ACROSS N AND NW QUAD OF ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. SOME LINGERING TROFFING LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND
THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE MAIN CONCERNS.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


By contrast, a tropical storm from last year:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.