Super Sunday tropical disturbance forms in Yucatan Channel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2012

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OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.

Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters

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188. Tazmanian
1:41 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
i think may this year will be vary busy if thing dont turn a round soon


all so what is the high set up this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
187. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:41 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
ANOTHER PATRIOT TOUCHDOWN!!! yeeeehaaaw!!!!17-12!!

:D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
186. SPLbeater
1:38 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
ANOTHER PATRIOT TOUCHDOWN!!! yeeeehaaaw!!!!17-12!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
185. ProgressivePulse
1:37 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like invest moving N.E.


Looks like however, COC appears to me to be just off the coast of Cancun, MX.





Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
184. GeoffreyWPB
1:37 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
183. BaltimoreBrian
1:33 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Key West has had over 3" of rain from 90L so far. Wind directions are chaotic.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 7993
182. Tropicsweatherpr
1:28 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
90L has a floater.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13274
181. GeoffreyWPB
1:27 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Special NWS Discussion

.UPDATE...

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER... IT IS IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT
AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST SHOWERS FROM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM COLLIER COUNTY INTO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE IS GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS A AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HURRICANE CENTER PREDICTS THAT THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR
GENERAL AREA ... REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EAST OF THE LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
TIGHT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CURRENTLY, THE SPC SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...ONE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MIAMI-DADE AND ANOTHER ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AFTER 3 AM.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
180. hydrus
1:27 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Looks like invest moving N.E.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
179. GeoffreyWPB
1:24 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Grothar...Think we will get a sub-tropical depression out of 90L?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
178. BaltimoreBrian
1:20 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Good morning all. Happy 60th anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II starting her reign.

There's a sharp front heading down the SC coast.

DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EST SUN Feb 5 2012

AT 800 PM...ALONG WATERFRONT PARK...THE TEMPERATURE WAS 61 DEGREES.
THE WIND WAS FROM THE EAST AT 34 MPH.



Probably stronger winds there than anywhere in the invest.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 7993
177. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:13 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is going too be a vary busy year

Hopefully.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
176. Tazmanian
1:12 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
this is going too be a vary busy year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
175. Grothar
1:09 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23696
174. Grothar
1:02 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23696
173. GeoffreyWPB
12:58 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Just updated...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
172. sunlinepr
12:56 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
171. RTSplayer
12:55 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Bonehead call by Giants earlier, going for 1.

9 doesn't help any more than 8, so this might bite them in the rear.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
170. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:54 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


How So?
000
FXUS62 KMFL 052312
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
612 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

ON MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA.

My mistake.

Whoever posted that the low would move over Florida tonight was wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
169. sunlinepr
12:53 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
168. SPLbeater
12:51 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
PATRIOTS UP 10-9
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
167. ProgressivePulse
12:50 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Either way, NWS Miami is wrong.


How So?


000
FXUS62 KMFL 052312
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
612 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

ON MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
166. sunlinepr
12:50 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
165. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:48 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
TOUCHDOWN!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
164. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:45 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


So because the pressure is 1011 it will now cross FL tonight? lol, nuff said.

Either way, NWS Miami is wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
163. ProgressivePulse
12:44 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That forecast is invalid...the pressure is already down to 1011 mb...LOL


So because the pressure is 1011 it will now cross FL tonight? lol, nuff said.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
162. Stormchaser2007
12:43 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
I hope I get to see Brady cry today.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:42 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 AM EST February 6 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 16.9S 157.8E or 1020 km east northeast of Mackay and 1190 km east northeast of Townsville. has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrants
60 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 159.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.3S 162.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.0S 166.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.6S 169.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on MTSAT visible animation. Position fair.

Intensity based on Dvorak curved band with 1.0 wrap yielding DT3.5. PAT adjusted MET agrees. CI held at 4.0 for initial weakening trend.

The system has weakened slightly as a result of easterly shear.

Global models are consistent with an easterly forecast path and further development over the next 48 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
160. NCHurricane2009
12:40 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Valid 18Z Monday


Valid 18Z Tuesday



That forecast is invalid...the pressure is already down to 1011 mb...LOL
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
159. ProgressivePulse
12:38 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ok.... wasn't expecting a new blog while I was gone...

BTW

THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S
FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE.



Valid 18Z Monday


Valid 18Z Tuesday

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
158. SPLbeater
12:37 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 90, 2012020518, 218N, 857W, 25, 1012, LO
AL, 90, 2012020600, 222N, 854W, 25, 1011, LO


AL, 90, New Engand, Will, WinW, 25, 1012, LO
AL, 90, New York518, Will, Lose, 25, 1011, LO
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
157. ProgressivePulse
12:35 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



30 hours? How long does it take you to make dessert?



As long as it takes me to take the egg custard pie out of the fridge from Publix. 24hrs in a dry rub, 6 hours on a 200 degree grill, last hour basted with a mop sauce every 15min or so to release the meat from the bone. Not much energy left for dessert as my wife does not cook, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
156. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:34 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
1014 --> 1012 --> 1011 mbar

Somebody's organizing :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
155. GeoffreyWPB
12:29 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
AL, 90, 2012020518, 218N, 857W, 25, 1012, LO
AL, 90, 2012020600, 222N, 854W, 25, 1011, LO
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
154. SPLbeater
12:24 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


i hate the stupid commercials


i dont have TV service, i am following on NFL.com lol xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
153. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:21 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
YES!! PATRIOTS got de ball back, giants had to PUNT!


i hate the stupid commercials
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
152. SPLbeater
12:20 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
YES!! PATRIOTS got de ball back, giants had to PUNT!

gon go shoot my dad with nerf gun because i am the only one here pulling for patriots, he like giants
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
151. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:18 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


im not talking to you since you pullin against me LOL


lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
9-3 Patriots trailin....COME ON BOYS!!!!BEAT THEM LIL giants!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I am!


im not talking to you since you pullin against me LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I am!

dislike.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Me neither.

They have some amazing commercials though.


I mean, i dont care for Brady but i do like Gronkowsi, Woodhead, Welker, Green-Ellis, and such. The manning brothers are a bunch o' babies!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Me neither.

They have some amazing commercials though.


I am!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting SPLbeater:
i am NOT happy about the score in super bowl so far.

Me neither.

They have some amazing commercials though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
i am NOT happy about the score in super bowl so far.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
143. 7544
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WRN CUBA AND
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THE MOISTURE TOWARDS S FLORIDA. LOCAL
FORECASTS INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND S FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.


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Its all RTLSNK's fault... he is going to Disney Land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
30%? Not bad. Agree with pretty much everything Stewart said.
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Nailed it.. 30%.
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Yes 30% we could actually have Alberto of this system
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.